OK, this is getting a little bit silly now for Adelaide.
The last time we saw the Crows on a Friday night, they managed to knock off the Swans at the SCG despite the absence of both Crouch brothers, Rory Sloane, Eddie Betts and David Mackay.
This time around, they’ll be without skipper Taylor Walker, Sloane, Mitch McGovern, both Crouches, Luke Brown, Riley Knight … you get the point.
As we saw with the Giants at Kardinia Park a couple of weeks ago, there always comes a tipping point for even the most talented teams.
What only a week ago looked like a chance for the Crows to boost their percentage, suddenly looms as a danger game.
Thankfully for Adelaide, they’re not travelling to take on the Swans this time around. In the comfortable surrounds of Adelaide Oval they’ll host the Bulldogs, who in their previous two interstate trips this season have gone down by 82 points to GWS and 54 points to Fremantle.
The Dogs are coming off three straight unconvincing wins against cellar dwellers – Carlton, Gold Coast and Brisbane – but the club that has fielded the youngest 22 in every round gets a nice boost of experience tonight.
Teenaged key defenders Aaron Naughton and Lewis Young have been replaced by captain Easton Wood and veteran recruit Jackson Trengove.
Suddenly a defensive group that was packed with kids a fortnight ago looks more sturdy with Wood, Trengove, 150-gamer Matthew Suckling and Hayden Crozier alongside pups Zaine Cordy, Bailey Williams and Ed Richards. Jordan Roughead also comes into the side, adding another experienced body around the ball.
And it’s around the ball where the Bulldogs’ should have the advantage. The Dogs are No.1 in the competition for clearance differential at +43 on the year. The Crows are ranked 16th at minus-24 through eight games. Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Toby McLean, Lachie Hunter, Luke Dahlhaus and Mitch Wallis can mix it with most sides,
Adelaide will want big games from Hugh Greenwood and Cam Ellis-Yolmen, who both stepped up as required in Round 5 against the Swans – Greenwood had six clearances and 11 tackles, Ellis-Yolmen five and eight. Those two, along with Bryce Gibbs and Richie Douglas will be crucial to the stoppage battle.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Former Kangaroo Sam Gibson could also be important in his first game for the Crows. He might even get the tough (impossible?) job on Bulldogs ball magnet Macrae.
Not that winning clearances is the be all and end all – the Tigers are ranked 15th at minus-22 – but if the Dogs are to cause an upset, it’ll be important for them to get their hands on the footy first, get it into their half and pile on the pressure.
The former Footscray have been pretty good at scoring from forward-half takeaways this season, getting almost five goals a game from intercept chains starting in their attacking half (ranked seventh).
The Crows, though, are a different beast in that regard, getting 38.9 points a game from forward-half takeaways (ranked second). Just what those numbers mean with so many important players out is tough to say.
Tom Lynch, Betts – in his 100th game for Adelaide – and Josh Jenkins still give the Crows enough firepower to kick a winning score. In the defensive third they have rock-solid Daniel Talia and the league’s leading ball-winner Rory Laird controlling things. Paul Seedsman is in All-Australian form on the wing.
Even short-handed, Adelaide have a good chunk of top-end, mature talent. But more than Don Pyke is used to they’ll be counting on inexperienced players. The Crows will have eight players with fewer than 50 games experience in their line-up tonight (the Dogs have nine).
Fifth-gamer Jordan Gallucci’s last-minute brain fade in last week’s Showdown probably cost the Crows the game. Young players do dumb things, especially when they’re tired or things aren’t going their way. The more young players you have, the more chances there are for bad things to happen. Adelaide are a whole lot more unpredictable than we’re used to.
If the Crows can a win tonight they’ll improve to 6-3, drop it and they’re 5-4 with a tricky month ahead given their injuries. This is an important match for the home side to win – no matter how ugly.
For the Dogs, a victory would give them the same record as Adelaide and perhaps even restore any September hopes that might have faded since the season started.
I’m not seeing it. Adelaide by five goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
sammy
Guest
keep digging the hole cat..you are the one that tried to argue against facts like they are going to change to suit you..like i said, admit you are wrong and we move on otherwise it looks more embarrassing for you carrying on like you are. Oh, and enjoy the game against the bombers..seems like they are handing your team a flogging today
Cat
Roar Guru
I'm not the only one not buying the fake news Crows
Cat
Roar Guru
Its okay little boi, you carry on crying all you want like your side is the worst off any side has ever been, its okay we all know even will a full side you'll crumble and make excuses. Umpires, injuries, ground location its always something with you super precious Adelaide people.
sammy
Guest
Cat..it is ok for you to admit you are wrong. The article is clear and the players listed are clearly injured players no matter how you try and cook it
Swannies’
Guest
Mind numbing
Swannies’
Guest
They just can’t pick a good game for Friday night .. so many rubbish teams I guess
Kangajets
Guest
The afl have picked some shocking games for Friday night footy They need to follow the nrl and have 2 Friday night gsmes
Birdman
Guest
Hawks have swung the axe BIGTIME. 6 changes but only 2 thru injury and then I'm calling BS on Frawley having a shoulder injury (has been putrid for a while now) Clarko's clearly really angry after last week's loss. - catastophic change indeed. Hawks going to the next level starting this week.
GJ
Guest
The article was written by Lee Gaskin and published on AFL.com. This is not the message coming out the club. The club has no control over the content. A list of 21, reduced from 25 by removing the 4 we've discussed by round 9 is still extensive.
Cat
Roar Guru
I never said 'lazy'. Every team has players that are 'questionable' or 'tests' no one every counts them UNTIL they actually miss games. The list has clearly been padded out with players who may yet not even miss a game or have not even debuted yet. I don't count players such as Quinton Narkle (ACL) and Charlie Constable (Concussion) when I add up Geelong's injuries because they haven't played a game between them. Try opening both your eyes sammy, or is it Sammy? Not sure why you need two account but whatever.
sammy
Guest
you are right Cat..you said in your post above '..for those who don't actually pay attention and read'. Maybe you need to heed your own advice as right at the top of the list (i know it is in very small writing - maybe 24 point) it is titled Sore Crows: Players who were/are injured. So please explain how the list is lazy and that is..in your words..even more questionable
Birdman
Guest
Daniel Chick could certainly play - we never saw the absolute best of him at Hawthorn but he was one of our best during our dark years before he headed to the Eagles. Pretty sure Worps will be a real talent.
Cat
Roar Guru
Makes putting them on the list even more questionable.
sammy
Guest
you realise that these players GOT injured last weekend and are now in doubt to play THIS weekend. Should we pretend that they didn't get hurt last weekend and just imagine they will play even if they really are injured..FFS
Sammy
Guest
GJ..some people on here don't like facts when they get in the way of their arguments.
GJ
Guest
Yep. Still 21 players by round 9 including Brodie Smith is still pretty extensive. Of the 4 you mentioned, 2 have never played an AFL game and a 3rd has played a grand total of 2 and is the emergency replacement for Jacobs this week, the 4th player you’ve mentioned
User
Roar Rookie
Worpel is a dead ringer for chick, if he ends as good a player you'll be happy
Cat
Roar Guru
I especially like the list at the end of the article. Including 4 players with injuries that have missed 0 games between them. Excellent work padding it out and making it look worse for those who don't actually pay attention and read.
sammy
Guest
Rick, some on here (and I am not referring to you) like to stick their head in the sand and say people that speak about injuries are whining and others say that all clubs get injuries..but what the crows have is an injury epidemic that exceeds anything happening at other clubs this year and has a massive effect on onfield performance. If the crows do win tonight, it will be some effort http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-05-18/crows-hanging-on-but-for-how-long
Mattyb
Guest
I'm more a modern believer in squads rather than teams and Adelaide still have astrong squad. Good coaches have good systems which can overcome injuries and relegate injuries into the excuse category,Clarkson proved this,Beveridge to some extent,Adelaide seem well coached. It needs to be remembered the Dogs have injuries of their own,which includes 5 players who are yet to play at any level all season,all clubs seem to have a lot of injuries and instead of using the excuse card we should be acknowledging the clubs without injury and seeing what it is they're doing right. I'm thinking it has a bit more to do with just luck.