The first Test is on our doorstep and odds suggest that every millimetre earned will be an important one.
The Wallabies can ill afford to bring their usual clunky June form to the series opener, which is a genuine concern after a short turnaround from Super Rugby.
Ireland rightly enter the series as slight favourites to win this weekend. However, as the series progresses and the Wallabies spend time together their combinations will improve. Don’t be surprised if the tables are turned by the third Test in Sydney.
What are the crucial areas for each nation?
Ireland
1) The defensive lineout
I expect that the Wallabies scrum will be closer to parity with the Irish than many might think. The much bigger area for concern from a Wallabies perspective is the defensive line out of the Irish.
With the Wallabies playing inexperienced hookers and attacking threats like Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau in the backfield, I expect Ireland to kick long and kick for touch.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Any Wallaby nerves or errors at lineout time will be feasted on by the likes of Iain Henderson, James Ryan, and Tadhg Beirne.
But perhaps the most worrying player of all for the Wallabies, who like to throw to the back of the lineout, will be the presence of Munster captain Peter O’Mahony.
O’Mahony is lethal in the defensive lineout and has the wood over any Wallaby backrow option in that space. You have been warned!
2) Turnover transitions
When I say turnover transitions, I mean how quickly the Irish can shift focus from attack to defence should they cough up the ball or relinquish possession to the likes of David Pocock.
The Wallabies will have Will Genia, Beale, and Bernard Foley sniffing around for any opportunities.
With turnovers and kick returns accounting for nearly 50 per cent of possession in the modern game, the Irish will need to be lightning fast on transitions to contain a Wallaby trio that can attack the narrow, midfield, or wide channels within seconds should space be on offer from turnover ball.
Wallabies
1) How they deal with the Irish tactical kicking game
Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton can put the ball on a pin head. When they don’t kick long you can guarantee that their kicks will be contestable.
The Wallabies will need a serious plan to play out of contestable kicks. Winning the ball is one piece of the puzzle.
The aerial battle between Folau and Rob Kearney may well be worth the price of admission alone, but the real clincher will be whether the Wallabies can offload the ball before the tackle or win quick ball at the ensuing breakdown.
If they can do this more often than not it will nullify an important component of the Irish game and give the Wallabies an edge.
If not, the Irish will have time to set their defence and will control the tempo of the next exchanges.
2) Discipline
The Wallabies are one of the most penalised teams in world rugby. During the English series in 2016, an interesting comment was made in an exchange between referee and then captain Stephen Moore – ‘If you’re going to attack every breakdown then you’re going to pay a tax for that’.
Despite this, the Wallabies have continued down the same dangerous road for the past two seasons. The Irish are notorious for giving away a miserly number of penalties.
A penalty count skewed in Irish favour by just three per game can in real terms mean around 100m of kicked territory with set piece possession following that territorial gain, or nine precious precious points on the scoreboard.
(AFP PHOTO / IAN MACNICOL)
Can the Wallabies manage the referees with skill and subtlety to achieve at least parity with the Irish when it comes to the penalty count?
The series is shaping up to be an absolute cracker. My prediction? An Ireland series win 2-0 – the Wallabies’ best result will be a draw in the second or third Test.
Wallabies fans will walk away scratching their heads after a tactical masterclass from the Irish, showcasing plenty of patience and nerve.
What’s your prediction?
Pablo
Guest
To quote one wild comment as an example of how Irish fans think is a bit disingenuous. What I am reading is that a lot of Irish fans aren't too confident at all about this first test especially considering the changes in the team.
-Dexter-
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't call DHP a 'strike runner' either Sherry, good call. He has a fairly rounded game. My biggest concern with DHP is his options playing from a box kick. Flicking back through the England series on fast forward I thought it was skipping for a while... Wallabies kick-off deep right, England settle, box kick, DHP catch and carry into contact on his wing... This isn't what the Wallabies will be hoping for tonight. We need to see the ball shifted midfield to open up our options. I really hope we see some variation tonight because I believe he will be getting tablespoons full of the same medicine. Agree with the Irish pack. Guys like Coleman and Rodda I think will handle it, despite some thinking otherwise. My biggest concern is the work rate of Timu. the 4, 5, & 8 are asked to work bloody hard in our modified 1-3-3-1 structure (if we play the same way)... Our 1, 2, & 3 get to hang out in the midfield while our 4, 5, & 8 are asked to swing from side to side around them, taking a majority of the hard carries from both edges of the field. Can Timu make tackle after tackle and then carry with venom or execute short passing skills under fatigue?? If he is gassed then keep an eye out for a couple of dropped balls when Wallabies are carrying from an edge with our 4, 5, & 8 pod.
-Dexter-
Roar Rookie
Nothing quite like a few beers before sharpening your index fingers and stabbing away at a keyboard, Timbo! This series is so difficult to call... We played two draws against Springboks last year so thought I'd throw one in there to spice things up a little. You never know...
Ed
Guest
Faith - So is NZ Herald on some days. See their latest take on Aussie rugby. That piece was written by an Australian journo.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
For me the key to a Wallabies win, is Cheika letting Beale judiciously use his excellent long kicking game to keep the ball in Irish territory, out of range of Sexton’s boot. Australia has arguably the best pilferer in the World in Pocock and the best kick returner in Folau, if th Wallabies keep the ball up their end, they will inevitably create opportunities to score. That said, I doubt Cheika will do this as he is all about the “Australian Running Rugby” mantra, so I am sadly inclined to think the Irish will clinch this one.
Sherry
Guest
Well done, Dexter. Your namesake is listed on the bench so maybe we'll find out if he can kick monster droppies in Brisbane as well as Paris. The Irish captain (will Pocock be owning O'Mahony?) listed Saffer-born DHP as a strike runner. I don't think he's ever been regarded as that but we'll be happy if they kick the ball to him which they won't. The WB forwards are in for a long day - Stander, Murphy, James Ryan, Henderson - hard guys every one.
Faith
Guest
With Irish selections OZ just need to bring their 'against-ABs game' and they'll have a chance. The Wannabe forwards especially will have to earn their keep. If not, oh dear ...
Faith
Guest
So is NZ Herald on some days. See their latest take on Aussie rugby: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12067285
Faith
Guest
The 42 is amazing
Cuw
Guest
interesting that CArberry has not been playing much this season. also interesting to note the head hit Sexton took inthe Pro14 final from 2 guys. and interesting the front row as u have said. basically it seems as if the coach is doing things up-side-down. start with those who lack experience ansd usually expected to play off the bench...
Derm
Roar Guru
Found it. “And if there is one thing I've learnt as a kiwi sports fan, always be wary of the shackle-draggers especially when everyone is writing them off.” It’s those pesky Kiwis again....
Derm
Roar Guru
There’s always one. Or two. ?
Derm
Roar Guru
Perhaps too much work after beers? ?
Derm
Roar Guru
Agreed Highlander. If they come on at the usual hour mark with the game tight, then it will prove useful. My concern is that the Wallaby props extract the maximum in the first half and gain a lot of points to leave the bench chasing the game. Ireland have learned to come from behind over the last while in a few games but that will depend on the margin. Ideally, they need to hit the hour mark on level terms, or near enough it, for the bench to make a successful scoring impact - either to retrieve the lead or hammer home the ascendancy. Schmidt wants/needs to test his backups resolve and starting capacity across the series. It’s the front row and 10 under the microscope in this first test. And to a lesser extent, Roux, Conan and Larmour from the bench.
Dan in Devon
Guest
I wonder about Carbery’s lack of match time during the season. Ross Byrne seemed to be the preferred choice.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
How did you get to a draw? In game 3, I predict that Cheik will rest his 10 Tahs Superstars so they are fresh for their next SR game and call up the reserve troops like Banks and Maddocks that will play a modern game and give the Irish a run for their money? Or maybe I had too many beers after work.
Highlander
Guest
That’s quite a front row on the bench though Derm.
soapit
Roar Guru
big question over the oz midfield defence surely? beale passable at best and kerevi has looked at sea at 13 at times. throw in the question over our back 3 kicking ( a lot depends on folaus improvements there) and theres a few options for ireland to attack. should be a really interesting series. 3 gamers are good arent they, chance for ebb and flow as each team learns and adapts
-Dexter-
Roar Rookie
Thanks Derm I'll have a look at a couple others you've mentioned. That comment was in a boards.ie thread!... Along with some 'Waltzing Matilda' talk to boot.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Nice piece, Dexter! Your point about managing the ref is an important one. Unfortunately Hooper often displays the subtlety of a rutting rhino. He must choose his moments to approach the ref and be all smiles and apologies when he knows he doesn’t have a case. It’s a fine art and waving arms and bleating are increasingly prevalent. But that doesn’t make it right. Paris went on a charm offensive. Nobody bought into it but somehow knowing there was an official directive to be more polite at least made people feel sympathetic that they were acknowledging the problem. That should also apply to the press conferences. Stop this blame culture and be seen to support the officials. They’ll be much more receptive the next time round as they’re only human.