The Expectations Game, redux

Eight weeks ago, I wrote a piece called ‘The Expectations Game‘, where I gathered eight different predictive sources and compared how each of the 18 men’s AFL squads were faring compared to the week-by-week expectations of the media and public.

Whose expectations are we averaging, you might ask?

Well, yours, mostly. These averages come from combining the various betting sites, tipping competitions, published “experts”, and rating systems across the media.

Expectations are the name of the game. Both Gold Coast and St Kilda have three wins this season; the fact that many of us are amazed the Suns have won any games makes those three victories an impressive total for Stuart Dew’s team, regardless of how poorly they’ve fared once winter’s hit.

Meanwhile, the Saints had figured to gain their third win in April, or May at the latest, rather than on July first, and thus their season seems a dismal failure.

Interestingly, before Round 15, exactly one team had already surpassed last year’s number of wins (North Melbourne, six last year, although Collingwood just joined this club on Saturday).

Exactly one team has eclipsed last year’s number of losses (Adelaide, also six last year) and one side has surpassed last year’s number of draws (St Kilda, which went without one last year).

Today, we’re going to take those results from Round seven and compare them to what’s transpired over the last seven games, up to and through Round 15 this past weekend.

The last line describes what’s expected from their last eight games, estimated from current CrownBet odds and our own ELO-Following Football ratings predictions for those games.

If there’s a likelihood of a close game – forecast within two goals or closer – I’ve marked it as undecided, knowing full well that all of these games are up in the air, as Round 15 proved again last weekend!

Finally, we’ll note what it will take over the last eight rounds for each team to improve on last season’s record (if possible).

Richmond (11-3, 135.3%)
First seven games: 6 wins (6.25 expected wins) – 0.25 below expectations
Next seven games: 5 wins (5.94 expected wins) – 0.94 below expectations
Current total: 11 wins (12.19 expected wins) – 1.19 wins below expectations
Last eight games: Favored in 7 games, underdog in none, 1 game within two goals.
Predicted final record: 18-19 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 15-7: Better than 4-4.

Collingwood (10-4, 121.9%)
First seven games: 4 wins (2.63 expected wins) – 1.37 above expectations
Second seven games: 6 wins (5.31 expected wins) – 0.69 above expectations
Current total: 10 wins (7.94 expected wins) – 2.06 wins above expectations
Last eight games: Favored in 4 games, underdog in 2, 2 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 14-16 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 9-12-1: They already have.

West Coast (10-4, 121.0%)
First seven games: 6 wins (4.69 expected wins) – 1.31 above expectations
Second seven games: 4 wins (4.19 expected wins) – 0.19 below expectations
Current total: 10 wins (8.88 expected wins) – 1.12 wins above expectations
Last eight games: Favored in 4 games, underdog in 3, 1 game within two goals.
Predicted final record: 14-15 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 12-10: Better than 2-6.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Sydney (10-4, 120.8%)
First seven games: 4 wins (5.50 expected wins) – 1.5 below expectations
Second seven games: 6 wins (5.38 expected wins) – 0.62 above expectations
Current total: 10 wins (10.88 expected wins) – 0.88 wins below expectations
Last eight games: Favored in 4 games, underdog in none, 4 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 14-18 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 14-8: Better than 4-4.

Port Adelaide (10-4, 115.0%)
First seven games: 4 wins (4.38 expected wins) – 0.38 below expectations
Second seven games: 6 wins (4.12 expected wins) – 1.88 above expectations
Current total: 10 wins (8.50 expected wins) – 1.50 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 5 games, underdogs in none, 3 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 15-18 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 14-8: Better than 4-4.

GWS Giants (8-5-1, 113.7%)
First seven games: 4 ½ wins (5.38 expected wins) – 0.88 below expectations
Second seven games: 4 wins (4.87 expected wins) – 0.87 below expectations
Current total: 8 ½ wins (10.25 expected wins) – 1.75 wins below expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 2 games, underdogs in 2 games, 4 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 10.5 – 14.5 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 14-6-2: Better than 6-1-1.

Melbourne (8-6, 124.4%)
First seven games: 4 wins (4.38 expected wins) – 0.38 below expectations
Second seven games: 4 wins (6.31 expected wins) – 2.31 below expectations
Current total: 8 wins (10.69 expected wins) – 2.69 wins below expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 4 games, underdogs in 1 game, 3 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 12-15 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 12-10: Better than 4-4.

Geelong (8-6, 123.2%)
First seven games: 4 wins (4.69 expected wins) – 0.69 below expectations
Second seven games: 4 wins (5.69 expected wins) – 1.69 below expectations
Current total: 8 wins (10.38 expected wins) – 2.38 wins below expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 3 games, underdogs in 2 games. 3 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 11-14 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 15-6-1: Better than 7-0-1.

North Melbourne (8-6, 113.4%)
First seven games: 4 wins (1.75 expected wins) – 2.25 above expectations
Second seven games: 4 wins (4.06 expected wins) – 0.06 below expectations
Current total: 8 wins (5.81 expected wins) – 2.19 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 4 games, underdogs in 2 games, 2 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 12-14 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 6-16: They did that long ago…

Hawthorn (8-6, 113.2%)
First seven games: 5 wins (5.13 expected wins) – 0.13 below expectations
Second seven games: 3 wins (4.37 expected wins) – 1.37 below expectations
Current total: 8 wins (9.50 expected wins) – 1.50 wins below expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 4 games, underdog in 1 game, 3 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 12-15 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 10-11-1: Better than 2-5-1.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Adelaide (7-7, 101.2%)
First seven games: 5 wins (5.19 expected wins) – 0.19 below expectations
Second seven games: 2 wins (5.00 expected wins) – 3.00 below expectations
Current total: 7 wins (10.19 expected wins) – 3.19 wins below expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 3 games, underdog in 1 game, 4 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 10-14 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 15-6-1: Too late…

Essendon (7-7, 95.2%)
First seven games: 2 wins (3.25 expected wins) – 1.25 below expectations
Second seven games: 5 wins (1.25 expected wins) – 3.75 above expectations
Current total: 7 wins (4.50 expected wins) – 2.50 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 3 games, underdogs in 3 games, 2 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 10-12 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 12-10: Better than 5-3.

Fremantle (6-8, 85.3%)
First seven games: 3 wins (1.44 expected wins) – 1.56 above expectations
Second seven games: 3 wins (2.94 expected wins) – 0.06 above expectations
Current total: 6 wins (4.38 expected wins) – 1.62 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 1 game, underdogs in 5 games, 2 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 7-9 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 8-14: Better than 2-6.

Western Bulldogs (5-9, 76.7%)
First seven games: 3 wins (3.00 expected wins) – 0 above or below expectations
Second seven games: 2 wins (0.94 expected wins) – 1.06 above expectations
Current total: 5 wins (3.94 expected wins) – 1.06 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 1 game, underdogs in 6 games, 1 game within two goals.
Predicted final record: 6-7 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 11-11: Better than 6-2.

St Kilda (3-10-1, 73.5%)
First seven games: 1 ½ wins (2.00 expected wins) – 0.50 below expectations
Second seven games: 2 wins (1.06 expected wins) – 0.94 above expectations
Current total: 3 ½ wins (3.06 expected wins) – 0.44 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 1 game, underdogs in 6 games, 1 game within two goals.
Predicted final record: 4.5 – 5.5 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 11-11: Better than 7-0-1.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Gold Coast (3-11, 62.8%)
First seven games: 3 wins (1.44 expected wins) – 1.56 above expectations
Second seven games: 0 wins (0.00 expected wins) – 0 above or below expectations
Current total: 3 wins (1.44 expected wins) – 1.44 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 0 games, underdogs in 6 games, 2 games within two goals.
Predicted final record: 3-5 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 6-16: Better than 3-5.

Brisbane (2-12, 83.6%)
First seven games: 0 wins (0.94 expected wins) – 0.94 below expectations
Second seven games: 2 wins (0.56 expected wins) – 1.44 above expectations
Current total: 2 wins (1.50 expected wins) – 0.50 wins above expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 1 game, underdogs in 6 games, 1 game within two goals.
Predicted final record: 3-4 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 5-17: Better than 3-5.

Carlton (1-13, 63.6%)
First seven games: 0 wins (1.38 expected wins) – 1.38 below expectations
Second seven games: 1 win (0.75 expected wins) – 0.25 above expectations
Current total: 1 win (2.13 expected wins) – 1.13 wins below expectations
Final eight games: Favored in 0 games, underdogs in 7 games, 1 game within two goals.
Predicted final record: 1-2 wins.
To improve on last season’s record of 6-16: Better than 5-3.

Then, taking their above/below expectations patterns into account, let’s project the possible final standings for the 2018 season:

Possible final 2018 AFL ladder

Looking ahead to Round 16, the ELO-Following Football rating system has Collingwood and West Coast with the narrowest predicted margins of victory, both at about ten points (although personally I’m picking the Giants in the upset).

It also selects Hawthorn by 14 over the Bulldogs, and all six of the other games to finish with more than three-goal margins of victory for Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and North Melbourne.

So far this season, the ELO-FF has beaten the oddsmakers 54.8 per cent of the time, and it’s record straight up is 86-39, ignoring the Round 5 draw.