Warning signs for Tigers, Eagles, Pies

The old saying goes that bad news comes in threes and that was certainly the case AFL’s top three premiership contenders in Round 17.

Tigers look lost on the road
Richmond suffered their fourth loss of the 2018 season on Saturday night, defeated by Greater Western Sydney in New South Wales by two points.

As a consequence of said loss, the supposed daylight separating the Tigers from the remainder of the competition has been shredded – allowing the yellow and black to hold top seed but now share premiership points with West Coast.

The Tigers’ loss to the Giants marked four consecutive losses interstate in 2018, with the reigning champs yet to win a game outside of Victoria.

The first interstate defeat came in Round 2 (Adelaide by 36 points), the second in Round 9 (West Coast by 47 points), the third in Round 12 (Port Adelaide by 14 points) – and now we have GWS.

Each loss is easy to dismiss in a vacuum.

Adelaide was a grand final rematch and the Crows got it done in front of a home crowd. It’s difficult to read much of anything in the first five rounds. West Coast were deserved winners against a Richmond side that had never played at Optus Stadium before. Port Adelaide a loss of just two goals against a side missing Dustin Martin, Bachar Houli, Dion Prestia and Jack Graham. The Giants loss was by less than a goal. Jason Castagna kicked five behinds. Five! And it was less than a goal.

Like I said – easy to dismiss. But when all four losses come together, they form a mighty, observable trend. Richmond is finding it difficult to seal the deal away from home.

Trends like this, so easy to spot, could rob the Tigers of their confidence and in the event that they are forced to play interstate during the finals, this trend will weigh heavily on the minds of the team’s youngest players.

Richmond plays one more game outside of Victoria this season – the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium in Round 21.

Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Eagles bid farewell to The queen piece
West Coast recorded one of their most important wins of the season on Sunday, defeating Collingwood by 35 points at the MCG.

The win came at a great cost however, with ruck Nic Naitanui tearing his anterior cruciate ligament for a second time in three years, likely sidelining him for at least 12 months and without a shadow of a doubt scrubbing him from contention for this year’s finals campaign.

Despite his status as on the rebound from an injury that deprived him of playing for 19 months, Naitanui has been central to the Eagles’ march up the ladder. Naitanui has been paired with Scott Lycett all season and is averaging more than 30 hitouts a game to go with 4.3 tackles, 3.7 clearances and plenty of other intangible offerings.

Together, Naitanui and Lycett formed the competition’s most fearsome ruck combination. Without Naitanui, it’s difficult to envision West Coast winning the premiership.

Naitanui’s five-year contract with the Eagles expires at the end of next season. With plenty of long months of rehabilitation ahead, it’s looking more and more like it’s going to be remembered as a career of ‘what could have been’.

AAP Image/Julian Smith

Do Collingwood really stack up?
Despite Collingwood’s status as the footy world’s long-loathed tyrant, a huge percentage of onlookers have enjoyed their shock rise to relevance in 2018.

Heading into this season, senior coach Nathan Buckley was a marked man, the club sliding further down the ladder in each season he’s been in charge.

But this year, the Pies have rocketed up to third on the ladder, winning 11 matches and losing just five.

Who doesn’t love a bit of an underdog?

One of those losses came on Sunday – getting done in by a comfortable margin by the previously discussed West Coast, by 35 points.

The other losses? Hawthorn by 34 points in Round 1, GWS by 16 points in Round 2, Richmond by 43 points in Round 6, and Geelong by 21 points in Round 8.

The common theme is that these teams are top-of-the-table squads – Richmond (first), West Coast (second), Greater Western Sydney (seventh), Geelong (eighth) and Hawthorn (tenth) – pushing for not only a spot in the finals but also a premiership.

The Pies have dropped the ball five times against sides they’ll need to be capable of rolling come September. But, for now, it’s not worth holding that against them. After all, they’ve only lost one more match than Richmond and West Coast – the only sides higher on the ladder.

Collingwood face a handful more finals fancies as the home-and-away season draws to a conclusion.

First North Melbourne (Round 18), then Richmond (Round 19), Sydney (Round 20) and Port Adelaide (Round 22).

If Buckley’s boys are serious about going all the way in 2018, they need to win the majority of these encounters.