After 17 rounds in the 2018 AFL home-and-away season the Collingwood Football Club are yet to claim a huge scalp in the top eight.
It begs the question: are the Pies contenders for the flag or just making the most of a generous draw?
A monumental chance slipped passed the Magpies side last round against West Coast at the MCG. The Eagles, who are barely convincing in Melbourne, lost their star ruckman Nic Naitanui in the second quarter to an ACL injury and yet still ran out 35-point victors due to a seven-goal-to-three second half.
This clearly says more about the Magpies than the Eagles.
Brodie Grundy and Steele Sidebottom are having arguably career-best seasons and almost certainties for the All Australian squad.
However, Grundy failed to take full control of the game post the Naitanui injury. Against second-rate ruckman Scott Lycett, Grundy had 13 more hit-outs than Lycett, yet his midfielders won the match clearances by just four.
While Sidebottom had an uncharacteristic 18 disposals, he had only six contested possessions at 66 per cent efficiency when placed up against a bigger bodied midfield.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The Magpies offensive half this year has been surprisingly effective, with only three players inside the top 30 for marks inside 50 all averaging less than two per game.
Collingwood are currently sitting fourth in the competition’s points for ranking due to standout seasons from leading goal-kicker Will Hoskin-Elliot (31) and rising star favourite Jaidyn Stephenson. Both players have been enormous and have played a pivotal role to why they sit in the top four.
However, the record of teams beaten in this year’s season is of higher concern than the avenue to goal for coach Nathan Buckley.
Beating only one top-eight side – Melbourne on Queen’s Birthday – the Magpies will need to beat a dominant side to be taken seriously in September.
Playing only three top-eight sides, excluding Melbourne, in 17 rounds this season has resulted in three losses – to Richmond, GWS and Geelong, all at the MCG with an average losing margin of 27 points. Stephenson and Hoskin-Elliot scored five goals collectively in those three losses. The statistics don’t look promising for the Magpies in fulfiling their supporters’ hopes of a second flag in eight seasons.
Collingwood take on Richmond in two weeks at the MCG in what looms to be a historic game for both sides.
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Richmond are looking to set the new record for consecutive wins at the MCG (18), and it’s a huge opportunity for the Magpies to assert their position in the top four.
From the 11 wins the Magpies have recorded this year, ten of those wins have come from the teams placed 11 to 18 currently on the ladder, with an average winning margin of 33 points.
The excessive injury toll is often mentioned in the Collingwood debate, with injuries to key players such as Adam Treloar, Lynden Dunn and Ben Reid. The Collingwood VFL side is still in equal sixth position on the ladder with an opportunity to go to fifth this upcoming week. Depth must not be as a sincere issue if both sides are looking at comfortable finals berths.
Collingwood’s run home consists of North Melbourne (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Brisbane (Etihad Stadium), Port Adelaide (MCG) and Fremantle (Optus Stadium). A win against Port Adelaide at the MCG should be expected as interstate teams have had consistent troubles on the road at the home of footy.
To be perceived as serious contenders in September, wins against either Sydney on the road or the Tigers at the MCG are critical.
Collingwood could be looking at a swift exit when placed up against first-rate sides if they don’t scalp a decent side on the way to the post-season.
Lroy
Guest
Yes, and the ''second rate ruckman...'' grated on me a bit as well, obviously the author hasnt seen Lycett play.
Andyincanberra
Guest
Trying to disprove your figures world be like trying to disprove the colour of an orange. You can't, they are objective facts. But I'm not going to quibble over the relevance of very specific and granular, cherry picked figures. I will however defend my high level comparative analysis, specifically Collingwood's list is only 7 months older than Carlton and win-loss ratios of 11-5 vs 1-15. I honestly believe that the figures I've quoted are more relevant than the ones that you've quoted. But this is absolutely a matter of opinion. If you disagree, that's fine, I'm not going to try and change your mind. If you're happy with where Carlton are currently sitting, then you're a lot easier to please than any other Carlton supporter I've ever met.
Macca
Guest
Andy if you don't like my figures show some that disprove them? You want the whole picture, show me the whole picture! As for your record, even you state Collingwood aren't good enough to win the premiership this year so and as they say in talledagh nights, "if you're ain't first your last". Bouncing around the middle of the table in perpetuity like the Bombers is hardly a cause for celebration.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
It would seem to me it is you doing the 'cherry picking', andy. Or is it fact that only the figures you quote are accurate or indeed matter? When you can't have it all your own way you resort to childish dummy spitting. High . . . and mighty?
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Collingwood's defeat says a lot about the Eagles having their three best forwards on the ground. It says a lot about the Pies' vaunted midfield not being able to match it with the Eagles despite having the best,or 2nd best ruck in the League. it says a lot about Collingwood not being able to sustain pressure on the opposition for more than a quarter.
peter chrisp
Guest
As they say we are 11-5 and that's not too bad an effort, easy run definitely no doubt about it, are we, or will we be good enough to stay in the 8? # Massive tests over the next 3 weeks North, Richmond & Sydney up at their home ground then Port Adelaide it's i guess like any sport if you are good enough who knows
andyincanberra
Guest
I'm genuinely glad that you see a silver lining in Carlton's situation right now. Whilst you can comfort yourself with the cherry-picked figures above, which I predicted you would. I will comfort myself with these figures Collingwood 11-5, Carlton 15-1.
Macca
Guest
I would also point out that the blues have 21 players currently 21 or under (pretty much half the list) compared to Collingwood's 13 (less than 1/3 the list). As I said you need to look beyond "average age" if you want to see "the whole picture"
Macca
Guest
This week Collingwood's 3 starting mids are Pendlebury (30) Sidebottom (27) and Adams (24) Carlton's 3 best mids are Murphy (30) Cripps (23) and Dow (18) Carltons named forward line is 20, 21,20, 20, 21,21 Collignwood's named forward line is 22, 24, 30, 26, 27, 19 You should look further than average age.
andyincanberra
Guest
Apologies, for the random comment, I was actually responding to Macca, but accidentally added a new comment, not a response.
andyincanberra
Guest
As at 30/11/2018 Collingwood's average age was 24yr 98days. Carlton's average age was 23yr 244days. While you may retort with 'Collingwood has third oldest list in the comp, while Carlton is the fifth youngest', the fact is that there is around 7 months between the teams. In my personal opinion, 7 months is negligible. I'm sure that you'll throw out some names to try and prove your 'age profile' point and I could probably do the same, fact is, they both have some young blokes and some old blokes. At the end of the day though, you obviously find comfort in your opinion that the comparative age profiles of Collingwood and Carlton means Collingwood's best players will have retired before their premiership window opens. I find comfort in my belief that Collingwood, a team that I believe is in a building year and 11-5, has an average age of only 7 months older than a team that is, yet again, in the middle of a rebuild. It's kind of like saying that Carlton is a better team in 2018 because all the teams that it has beaten sit above it on the ladder, but Collingwood is yet to beat a team above them on the ladder. Whilst objectively true, it's nowhere near the whole picture.
Macca
Guest
Given their age profile they don't want to "build" for much longer.
andyincanberra
Guest
Contending or pretending? I'd say neither, 'Building' is the term I'd apply. As much as people people whinge, whine and complain that Collingwood haven't beaten anyone above them, I don't think that anybody would have had Collingwood at 11-5 after 16 rounds. Next year, hopefully we'll have a little more luck on the injury front, then we'll have a real tilt in September.
Macca
Guest
Ian - 9 of Collingwood's 11 wins have come against sides that occupy the bottom 7 spots on the ladder, by contrast on 1 win has come against a side in the top 10. This isn't about beating sides above you, it is about beating sides that are possibly finalists. And clearly losing a Cox pre-game has less impact than losing NicNat in game.
Nigel
Guest
West coast can’t do any right. Win every game in Melbourne tick. Win at the MCG tick. Before the game everyone acting like Collingwood has won it.
Phillip
Guest
Collingwood may or may not end up in the four but they certainly should make the eight, a may even win a final. The signs are that Buckley’s approach is finally paying off, and as the team melds more they can be a dominate force over the next few years. Similarly, Essendon has been sporadic but when they fire they become near impossible to beat. With consistency we can see their time coming. Anyone up for a couple of Magpie-Bombers grand finals in the next few years?
StumpyPeter
Roar Rookie
It's not how many teams above you that counts, it's how many below are artificially putting you up. When Melbourne were booming they beat Essendon at their nadir, StKilda, GCS, Carlton, Adelaide at their nadir and the Bulldogs. This was book ended by thrashings from Richmond and (OMG) Collingwood.
Baz
Guest
Hello, I disagree with this comment here Tyler: "This clearly says more about the Magpies than the Eagles." Pies need Treloar back asap...
StumpyPeter
Roar Rookie
North may well be the litmus test. Top three are likely Tigers, WCE and Swans with 4-10 trying to get in the top 8, Adelaide and Essendon are very likely gone. If Collingwood can't take the Roos it may well be all over for them. Mason Cox return is not the same as JK , JD and Lecca returning for WCE.
Ian
Guest
In the aftermath of last weeks game, much is made of the Eagles loss of Naitanui during the game and hardly any emphasis placed on the significance of the Pies loss of Cox pre-game despite the obvious fact that the Eagles had another respectable ruckman and Collingwood didn't have another tall forward. By the way, how many teams above them on the ladder have Richmond beaten this year? Not many (for obvious reasons), but it illustrates the silliness of these arguments. And by the way, the Pies didn't just beat Melbourne: they demolished them, at a time when the were the commentators' boom team.