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After 17 rounds in the 2018 AFL home-and-away season the Collingwood Football Club are yet to claim a huge scalp in the top eight.
It begs the question: are the Pies contenders for the flag or just making the most of a generous draw?
A monumental chance slipped passed the Magpies side last round against West Coast at the MCG. The Eagles, who are barely convincing in Melbourne, lost their star ruckman Nic Naitanui in the second quarter to an ACL injury and yet still ran out 35-point victors due to a seven-goal-to-three second half.
This clearly says more about the Magpies than the Eagles.
Brodie Grundy and Steele Sidebottom are having arguably career-best seasons and almost certainties for the All Australian squad.
However, Grundy failed to take full control of the game post the Naitanui injury. Against second-rate ruckman Scott Lycett, Grundy had 13 more hit-outs than Lycett, yet his midfielders won the match clearances by just four.
While Sidebottom had an uncharacteristic 18 disposals, he had only six contested possessions at 66 per cent efficiency when placed up against a bigger bodied midfield.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The Magpies offensive half this year has been surprisingly effective, with only three players inside the top 30 for marks inside 50 all averaging less than two per game.
Collingwood are currently sitting fourth in the competition’s points for ranking due to standout seasons from leading goal-kicker Will Hoskin-Elliot (31) and rising star favourite Jaidyn Stephenson. Both players have been enormous and have played a pivotal role to why they sit in the top four.
However, the record of teams beaten in this year’s season is of higher concern than the avenue to goal for coach Nathan Buckley.
Beating only one top-eight side – Melbourne on Queen’s Birthday – the Magpies will need to beat a dominant side to be taken seriously in September.
Playing only three top-eight sides, excluding Melbourne, in 17 rounds this season has resulted in three losses – to Richmond, GWS and Geelong, all at the MCG with an average losing margin of 27 points. Stephenson and Hoskin-Elliot scored five goals collectively in those three losses. The statistics don’t look promising for the Magpies in fulfiling their supporters’ hopes of a second flag in eight seasons.
Collingwood take on Richmond in two weeks at the MCG in what looms to be a historic game for both sides.
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Richmond are looking to set the new record for consecutive wins at the MCG (18), and it’s a huge opportunity for the Magpies to assert their position in the top four.
From the 11 wins the Magpies have recorded this year, ten of those wins have come from the teams placed 11 to 18 currently on the ladder, with an average winning margin of 33 points.
The excessive injury toll is often mentioned in the Collingwood debate, with injuries to key players such as Adam Treloar, Lynden Dunn and Ben Reid. The Collingwood VFL side is still in equal sixth position on the ladder with an opportunity to go to fifth this upcoming week. Depth must not be as a sincere issue if both sides are looking at comfortable finals berths.
Collingwood’s run home consists of North Melbourne (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Brisbane (Etihad Stadium), Port Adelaide (MCG) and Fremantle (Optus Stadium). A win against Port Adelaide at the MCG should be expected as interstate teams have had consistent troubles on the road at the home of footy.
To be perceived as serious contenders in September, wins against either Sydney on the road or the Tigers at the MCG are critical.
Collingwood could be looking at a swift exit when placed up against first-rate sides if they don’t scalp a decent side on the way to the post-season.
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