Daryl Gibson likely got himself a contract extension last weekend, but if he can pull off a win in Johannesburg on Saturday the Waratahs coach should push for a sign-on bonus.
No matter which way you slice and dice it, the Tahs face a monumental task to upset the Lions in their Super Rugby semi-final at Ellis Park.
As impressive as NSW’s come-from-behind triumph over the Highlanders was, the Lions are well organised, high-paced and brutish. They’re ruthless at home. They know what it takes at this time of year. They’re aiming to qualify for their third straight Super Rugby grand final.
In their regular-round clash earlier this season, the Lions embarrassed the Tahs 29-0 in Sydney, a deflating defeat that marked the first time the Waratahs had been held scoreless in Super Rugby.
The area in which the Tahs look most inadequate is in the forwards, and such is the gulf in power between the two packs, it’s difficult to foresee how Gibson’s side will win anywhere near enough ball for Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau to spark attacking chances.
Latu’s inclusion at hooker – in place of Damien Fitzpatrick – is the right move given his strengths in scrummaging and his aggression at the breakdown (although his grass-cutter tackling technique in which he doesn’t always use his arms is a worry in these yellow-card heavy times).
It will be Latu’s first start this season – having come off the bench in the eight games he’s played in 2018 – but he’s a much better match-up on Lions beast Malcolm Marx.
The Springboks hooker was superb in last weekend’s victory over the Jaguares, winning five penalty turnovers.
And this is the major worry for the Waratahs: when the Lions got into their rhythm, they outmuscled a Jaguares pack including Agustin Creevy, Pablo Matera, Javier Ortega Desio and Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro.
The Argentinians boast a big pack with a solid mix of aggressive and mobile forwards, but even they were convincingly outpointed by the Lions at the breakdown and the set piece.
Marx typically leads the way, with lock Francois Mostert, captain and No.8 Warren Whiteley and backrower Kwagga Smith providing plenty of grunt work.
The Waratahs, in comparison, lack a big bruiser that can consistently rip in with leg-pumping runs and stinging hits like a Brodie Retallick, Amanaki Mafi or Jordan Taufua.
If the Waratahs pack was a boxer, they would be one that would often weigh in lighter than their opponent and lack a big strike weapon that could floor their rival. Hang tough and go the distance.
Michael Wells and Ned Hanigan aren’t backrowers that make many massive dents in other packs, although Will Miller is a typically tough No.7 that covers a lot of territory and can win a turnover.
A much more athletic looking Jed Holloway gives the Tahs a bit of punch in attack while his lock partner Rob Simmons is a hard worker but not a renowned hard hitter.
Sekope Kepu is once again in fine form and Tom Robertson is reliable at prop.
Latu is that one forward that can create a bit of chaos, and Gibson will look to him to set the tone physically for the Tahs.
In fact, Latu also has a big chance to grab the Wallabies’ No.2 jersey for the first Bledisloe Cup clash next month and cap a huge turnaround after being overlooked by Gibson at the start of the year.
Who will he be competing against for a Test start? Tatafu Polota-Nau.
It’s incredible to think Latu was on the bench – behind Polota-Nau – for the Waratahs in the Super Rugby final against the Crusaders in 2014.
That title-winning side had a well-balanced pack, mixing the aggression and physicality of Jacques Potgieter, Wycliff Palu, Polota-Nau and Kepu with the hard-working Michael Hooper, Stephen Hoiles, Kane Douglas and Benn Robinson.
Will Skelton, with Latu, provided some sting off the bench.
There’s been a bit of talk that Gibson will be rewarded for the Tahs making it to the semis by being offered another deal beyond this season.
His first assignment might be to recruit some big, aggressive forwards. It’s an issue that a few other Australian Super Rugby teams face, as well as the Wallabies who have been outmuscled up front for years against the All Blacks, England and Ireland.
Size and aggression matter at this stage of the Super Rugby season. Waratahs winger Taqele Naiyaravoro, although he has his deficiencies, proves that size and power can be a precious commodity when you need to get moving forward.
If the likes of Beale and Folau are expected to provide the points, then they need forwards with a bit of swagger that can provide the muscle.
Hopefully I’m made to look like a fool, but I fear that across the board – scrum, line-out, ruck and maul – the Tahs’ pack doesn’t have anywhere near the power to mix it with the Lions.
Rob
Guest
I think we rugby-tragics on this site (and others) are perfect examples of what a human's cognitive biases can do to screw up rational thinking. There are so many examples here (and in all our comments on all articles) that can be shown to be cognitive bias. The bookies have us at $4, so assuming a reasonable spread (profit for the bookies) we have about a 20% chance of winning. That's the most rational assessment we have at our disposal. But a bit boring right? How we might win or lose is where the banter and the bias kicks in. If you want to be a better commenter - or just feel like you are (!) - just check out how many ways your brain is wired to screw up your thinking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases Go the Tahs!
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Over to you Horace: “Be wise, ...... Even while we speak, envious time has passed: pluck the day, putting as little trust as possible in tomorrow." One stat (and there have been some pertinent stats and eloquent analyses of them here and near this week), is unquantifiable. Horace’s notion of ‘pluck the day’ (another translation of carpe diem). Which team and which players are of a mind to pluck the most? Marx may be a world class plucker, But plucking is a choice too for others. The ball, the moment. The stats say Lions. But stats don’t decide results. In one observation it could be said that the Tahs are lucky to be this deep after the past 4 seasons, Gibson’s sketchy growth, and inconsistent player passion. However, at least one other view sees a coach confidently in his groove, a tough core of game-changers able to turn on a dime, and a team that has not always copped the rub of the green (eg Moodygate) this season. The Lions are good, very good. But every good may be beaten by a great pluck. (Or hundreds of them over 80 minutes.) Now that you are here Tahs, don’t wait for tomorrow. You don’t know, you just don’t know when or if this day will return. So pluck it now, please.
ozinsa
Guest
Hard working Benn Robinson??? I really liked him and thought he was much maligned but not even he would dream of being described as hard working. Simmons and Hanigan have manned up this year and Wells was always a tough cookie. We’ll go OK
Bodger
Roar Rookie
Tupou is 135kg and apparently fastest guys off over a short distance at the Reds. We should put him at 13 for the Wallabies and pack down at prop for the scrums. :-)
mailman
Guest
Continuing on with the weight stats for the forwards- and yes weight is not always a true indication of strike power and effectiveness- but the biggest guy in the Waratahs run on side is their winger, Taqele Naiyaravoro, at 123 kegs- five more than Kepu- its a wonder the guy can run at such a good pace.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to see the comparative pack weights published during the game tomorrow. Taken from the team web sites there's not much between them - Lions 890, Tahs 880
Harry Jones
Expert
I agree. Brink was the unsung hero.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Latu and Holloway have bumped the pack size up as has not plyaing Miller and Hooper
Tipene Roar
Roar Rookie
Come on Tahs.You can do it.
Reverse Wheel
Guest
It's interesting that you feel his absence has not been noticeable. The waratahs have had hard going in the 4 games without him. Even the sunwolves was close until the send off. The periods of dominance have been few and far between. I think he's been sorely missed personally, as well as Miller has played.
double agent
Guest
That's some strange logic there Cyclops.
Reverse Wheel
Guest
I'm not sure you're even trying to make sense. You want to compare 2017 (with Hooper) to 2018 (with Hooper) and conclude that Hooper makes no difference? It's clear that the Waratahs have struggled in the 3 actual games in that period they didn't have Hooper, it's not like they've suddenly gone on a run without him. They were on top of the conference before he got injured after all.
Bodger
Roar Rookie
Looking forward to it. Fitness and playing at altitude is going to decide this game. Who's got the most left in the tank after 60. I like the Waratahs for that, Beale.and co should do well.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
Probably, if you look only at ticket sales I suppose. But there are ancillary income as well from concessionaires, programme sales, advertisers, etc. while the stadium costs would be part of their annual budget anyway as they own the stadium. Hosting a semi-final probably provides bonus income, not budgeted for in the annual budget
Sinclair
Guest
Question re Miller's playing in Hooper's absence. Might Miller's more orthodox approach to the 7 role have actually benefitted the Waratah's and might it not be more helpful tomorrow in the breakdown battle? This is not a dig at Hooper, who is a superb athlete and, as he showed when at the Brumbies, he can play a more typical 7 role but I have been surprised that his absence has not been more noticeable. His pace in cover tackling was probably missed in the belting by the Brumbies but the problems went far deeper that night. The more open NSW style in some ways needs a few guys playing grafting roles in the loose to maintain possession and steal some ball and maybe Miller is providing some of that.
John R
Roar Guru
According to the SMH, they'll need to get 45,000 along to turn a profit, as they need to pay the Tahs $100k to come and play.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
30,000 tickets sold for Ellis Park by midday yesterday, Lions hoping for 40+k (capacity 62k) Saders are looking at about 15+k, near full stadium (capacity 18k)
jeznez
Roar Guru
cookie - great set of stats. the two that leap out at me are the team that makes the most breakdown turnovers against the team that concedes the most. The Tahs need to massively lift just to retain posession
Gary
Guest
Holloway has got it in him and is potentially the type of forward we need to translate big in frame into big in actions/play. ( noting that our packs are always considered to be small when in fact often they are larger , we just play small ) Holloway is athletic and aggressive , he wants to put it over his opponent , so that's good. What I see is he doesn't put himself in the frame enough when in tight ( he is ok out wide). This is both in defence and attack and it leads to lack of involvements and criticism, and fair enough too. If he can find his positional sense in tight then you will see a better player and a real good Blind side Flanker cum Lock or vice versa - definitely Wallaby prospect.
Fionn
Guest
Right, Baylion, not good news for the Waratahs then! Marx is a very good scrummager himself too, as far as this former back can tell..