As the race to September gets tighter as each round passes, players are pushing the barriers in training, coaches are tactically working over the whiteboards and fans are anxiously over-working the ladder predictor.
There will undoubtedly be heartbreak and ecstasy for some teams at the end of Round 23, but who will make the cut?
Will the ever-consistent Swans miss for the second time in 15 years? Can the Dees break their finals drought? Is North Melbourne going to make it after being considered as wooden spooners at the start? All these questions will be answered in what is set to be the biggest month of footy in the home-and-away season for a long time.
The Bombers are definitely still in the hunt for finals this season as they look to creep into the top eight and do some damage in September.
A top-four finish was beckoning this season, a potential deep run in the finals had the Bombers supporters excited about renewing their memberships at the start of the year. However, Essendon supporters were furious with what they were being served up after being so patient over the years of pain due to the drugs saga.
What’s the game plan? Why are we moving the ball backwards and not forward? Where’s the passion and emotion from the coach?
Bombers head coach John Worsfold. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Surprisingly, the Bombers were shocked by the Dogs in Round 3 at Etihad Stadium this year, with a horror Anzac Day performance against Collingwood highlighting their inconsistencies.
Things got worse with poor losses to Melbourne, Hawthorn and then to the bottom of the ladder Carlton. Calls were made for Joe Daniher and Jake Stringer to be dropped for poor form, veteran Brendon Goddard was slammed for his on-field leadership and coach, John Worsfold was under the pump.
As the murmurs grew louder and louder, ‘Woosha’ as they call him, stood firm in the face of a media storm, giving the press nothing at all, constantly blunting their questions and showing the vigour that supporters wanted to see. That combined with the stunning mid-season sacking of game performance coach Mark Neeld at the end of Round 8 had Essendon set to finish well in the bottom half of the ladder.
Astonishingly, Essendon are now clearly the form team of the competition at the moment after posting a scintillating 8-2 record in the past ten rounds. The Bombers have not looked back ever since Round 8, stunning a plethora of high quality teams including Geelong, GWS, West Coast, North Melbourne as well as Sydney.
This purple patch has not only put rival teams on notice, but has excited their passionate fans as they finally have been able to witness what they expected their team to produce this season.
Can they still make it into the eight? Mathematically definitely, realistically they are a chance!
Run Home (Currently 10-8)
Round 20: V Hawthorn (MCG)
Round 21: V St Kilda (ES)
Round 22: V Richmond (MCG)
Round 23: V Port Adelaide (AO)
How do they do it? Clearly, they need to continue winning games and simply must win at least three of the next four matches. Winning all four will guarantee a spot in the eight but that will be a mighty challenge.
Realistically, they can beat Hawthorn, St Kilda and Port Adelaide, but Richmond at the MCG is another kettle of fish. They also need to rapidly improve their percentage and have a chance in doing so against the Saints in Round 21.
A costly loss to Carlton may be one they rue over the off-season but if they make the eight watch out for them as they have proven they can match it with quality teams. A narrow miss however, should motivate the Dons to come back stronger than ever next season as they will be looking to avoid another inconsistent start to the year.
JamesH
Roar Guru
That's a gross exaggeration. If North lost their away games to Brisbane and Adelaide, and Hawks lose to Essendon and Geelong, we just need Sydney to lose three of four. Very possible in their current form and considering who they play. North are the ones most likely to shoot that scenario down but Higgins is out against the Lions this week, which helps. Unlikely, but not far-fetched.
Ray Hammond
Roar Rookie
Mathematically that may be correct, but when you look at who they play the likelihood of that scenario is next to impossible. After this weekend the maths will be clearer as some teams, and maybe Essendon, will be knocked out of contention.
Ray Hammond
Roar Rookie
Hird was not predicting the Bombers would be Premiers, but reflected the view that if Essendon were to make the finals they would have to win the next 4 including defeating Richmond. It would mean that they would have won 12 of the last 14 games and as the "form team" of the AFL would be in serious contention to take the flag. In other words, if they make the finals, watch out, for they could indeed be the Premier side.
Ray Hammond
Roar Rookie
You are indeed confused, and Ess3ndon may add to your confusion on Saturday if they beat Hawthorn. Not as good as Port? Essendon thrashed Port early in the season - Round 4 - and that was before they started playing well. They have also beaten West Coast, Geelong, GWS, Sydney and the Kangaroos - all of whom were in the Top 8 and some in top 4. However, they will probably win 3 of last 4 but fall against the Tigers and not make it to the finals in 2018, but not a bad lead up to 2019.
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
Thanks Connor, but don’t get carried away! 2 players won’t suddenly make Essendon the team to beat!
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
Breust with 9 goals the last 2 weeks, Hurley may go to him. One may feel Roughy is due for a big game though on such a big occasion.
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
Great points. Hopefully they are switched on every game at the start of 2019.
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
Winning the flag is a bit of an excessive prediction, they do not need this distraction whilst still trying to make the 8
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
Form suggests they may trouble any team that comes their way, always tough tipping Essendon games though
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
As most coaches say, they pay little attention to the ladder, as long as the players hold the same mindset, they should be focused on football alone.
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
Spot on there.
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
13 wins with their percentage won’t get them in but with a few results their way, they may get lucky. 14 wins is a guaranteed top 8 spot though
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
They’re playing more consistent than Geelong at the moment but your comparison is definitely true to an extent. One game at a time is the right way to go about it
Raymond Liu
Roar Rookie
Every week will be an elimination final for them one would reckon!
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Bringing Daniher back will torch any chance you have.
Confused
Guest
Sure. They're a better team than St Kilda; but not as good as Hawks, Richmond & Port. There is a reason those teams have won more games. You can't ignore the losses in round 11 & 16 against Richmond and the Pies?
Jed Lanyon
Roar Rookie
Bombers could likely win three of their final four games. Think their percentage will be their undoing though come Round 23.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Hurley was awesome against Buddy. Who will he play on against the Hawks? This game could be as big as the Pies v Tigers. Bombers army will go nuts as they pull away in the last to win easing up by 44.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Wait... a team that is 10-8 with 8 wins in its last 10 outings is 'likely' to only win one of its last four matches? That makes no sense. On current form they are likely to win 2-3 of those. The hot and cold form you're talking about died in round 8. The Bombers haven't been 'awful' at all since then. The Richmond match showed they aren't flag ready but they were just beaten by a classy side that came out with a point to prove. They had opportunities to beat the Pies and haven't looked like losing to anyone else.
JamesH
Roar Guru
That's not true. For example, if: - Sydney gets only one more win - Hawthorn only wins two more games (and loses to Essendon) - North only wins two more games then 3 wins gets Essendon there. There are other permutations too, where Geelong and Melbourne lose critical matches. I don't think it's likely (particularly as North play Brisbane (away), WB and StK) but it would hardly take any genuine 'shockers' like you're making out.