With four rounds to go the NRL top eight is now almost certainly set. The only possible change is that the Warriors exchange places with the Wests Tigers. However, that is a very skinny chance.
So of the final eight contenders we have, who are the genuine contenders and who are just making up the numbers?
Firstly, let’s look at how the ladder is likely to finish up. This will show us the home ground advantage for the first week of the finals, as well as the vital top-four spots who will get a second crack at the cherry.
As we know, the last side to win from outside the top four was the Bulldogs in 1995 – that’s 23 seasons ago. That side had also played in the decider the previous season.
Here’s how I see the ladder finishing up:
| Ladder | Team | Points | Wins | Losses | Differential |
| 1st | Rabbitohs | 40 | Roosters (h), Broncos (a), Raiders (a), Wests Tigers (h) | Nil | 170 |
| 2nd | Storm | 36 | Eels (h), Titans (a), Panthers (h) | Sharks (h) | 206 |
| 3rd | Roosters | 36 | Raiders (a), Broncos (h), Eels (a) | Rabbitohs (a), | 183 |
| 4th | Dragons | 34 | Eels (a), Bulldogs (h), Knights (a) | Wests Tigers (A) | 131 |
| 5th | Panthers | 34 | Titans (a), Knights (h), Warriors (a) | Storm (a) | 107 |
| 6th | Sharks | 34 | Storm (a), Cowboys (h), Knights (h), Bulldogs (a) | Nil | 91 |
| 7th | Warriors | 32 | Knights (h), Bulldogs (a), Raiders (h) | Panthers (h) | 34 |
| 8th | Broncos | 30 | Cowboys (a), Sea Eagles (h) | Rabbitohs (h), Roosters (a) | -6 |
| 9th | Wests Tigers | 28 | Raiders (a), Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (h) | Rabbitohs (a) | -18 |
Things to note:
• Points differential will be crucial for the Storm and Roosters in deciding who gets the home final in the first week.
• The Dragons superior points differential will likely see them sneak into the top four, with the Panthers recent profligate defence really helping that happen.
• The Panthers are still a chance to get knocked into sixth on points differential by the Sharks.
• The Sharks’ loss to the Sea Eagles cost them any chance of making the top four.
• How vital is that Ashley Klein penalty for the Broncos in Round 3? If my calculations are borne out it will be the difference between which of the Broncos or Wests Tigers actually make the finals.
• The Wests Tigers may still have an opportunity to get into the eight if they can beat the Rabbitohs in the final round. However, their for and against is a big problem.
The pretenders
The Wests Tigers
If Ivan Cleary manages to get his bus to the finals I suspect they will be a Week 1 exit. Finals are won by sides that chance their arm and post a score.
The Wests Tigers points per match is the lowest of all 16 clubs at just 15.7 a game. Their missed tackles are the worst in the league at 33.7 a game, and their line breaks are the third worst.
The Broncos
The Broncos will probably crawl into the finals but an away final first up will await them and five of their eight loses in 2018 have been on the road.
The vast majority of their stats averages see them ranked from seventh through to 10th, good enough to make the finals, but not good enough to go beyond week one without luck. While their forward pack has some distinct promise and great youth coming through, their backs have been a real disappointment in 2018.
The Warriors
You remember back in Round 5 when the Warriors were undefeated and on top of the table? So many of us thought they had finally turned the corner and would now challenge.
No. Wrong. While they’ll make the finals this year – and they clearly have the potential to challenge – they lack an essential spark that is required to be genuine contenders.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is capable of brilliance, but he is not a match winner. Shaun Johnson should be mentioned in the same breath as James Maloney, Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston but he isn’t because he has no consistency.
They need to get another Kevin Campion type in to sort a few of them out and get them focused properly. Until they do that they’ll continue to be pretenders.
The Sharks
I don’t want to completely write the Sharkies off as I believe they are capable of making a real charge. However, it requires Josh Dugan to actually get on the paddock and stay there. He has participated in only nine of the Sharks 20 games this season.
As well, Matt Moylan needs to step up a gear in attack. The loss to the Sea Eagles almost destroyed their top four chances and – while they could get to the grand final – history is well against them winning it.
The semi-contenders
The Panthers
Sacking your coach four rounds out from the finals would seem bizarre – especially when the side is going to make the play offs. However, they do things differently at the foot of the mountains.
By all accounts Cameron Ciraldo has had the reigns for a while now. The Panthers faithful will be hoping their recent defensive disasters will be quickly curtailed.
They have conceded 129 points in the last four rounds at a rate of 32 points a game. You can’t win a premiership with defence like that.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard’s return is very well timed to assist in this. Their tackle breaks, line breaks and tries scored are all brilliant, however, their missed tackles are the third worst in the league.
As I said before the season started, Jimmy Maloney is a winner and while he’s fit the Panthers are a strong chance of winning the comp.
The Dragons
The Red V are contenders simply because they will be in the top four. After winning their first six games straight the Dragons have won seven and lost seven.
The last time they beat another side that was in the top eight was way back in Round 9 when they beat the Storm 34-14 at Kogarah.
In Round 8 they beat the Roosters 24-8. Since then they have played top eight sides five times and lost all of them. They have lost those games by a combined score of 158-72, that averages out at 32-14. I can see the Dragons going out in straight sets.
The actual contenders
The Roosters
The Roosters haven’t convinced me all season. However, all of a sudden it might be starting to click.
The form of Latrell Mitchell is incendiary. His brain explosions – so prevalent in previous seasons – have started to dry up and he looks like the best centre prospect since a young Malcolm Meninga: Fast, strong, skilled, brilliant.
Add to that a backline with James Tedesco, Blake Ferguson and Cooper Cronk and you’ve got a side capable of blowing sides off the park. Their demolition jobs on the Sea Eagles and Dragons show what they are capable of.
I reckon they’ll just miss out on second spot on points differential but I think they can win anywhere at this point. If they have a weakness it is that I’m not convinced their pack is up to the standard of the Storm and the Rabbitohs.
The Storm
It’s finals time and the Storm will be taking their place for the 18th time in their 21 year history. It will be the 13th time they have finished in the top four.
It is safe to say that they know the drill. However, this year so much rests on Cam Smith.
Without Cooper Cronk he has had to assume even more responsibility over the team. However, here’s the thing, he’s totally up to it. You can also bet that Billy Slater wants to go out with a bang.
And all of a sudden it is four weeks out from the finals and the Purple Horde is at full strength and they’ve won eight of their last nine games. Standing between them being the first side since the Broncos in 1993* to go back to back are the Rabbitohs.
The Storm host the Sharks in a replay of the 2016 grand final. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
The Rabbitohs
The Cardinal and Myrtle’s win over the Storm last round was very impressive. It was a very high quality game and the Rabbitohs outmuscled the Storm pack.
And that’s why the Rabbits are where they are: The Burgii are fully back in gear for the first time since 2014. Joining them in great form in the forwards are the brilliant Damien Cook, Angus Crichton and Cam Murray.
Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker have formed a great combination and Alex Johnstone looks great at the back. And Dane Gagai’s is in the side.
The bloke is a total gun. If Greg Inglis can get back on the field then this could really happen.
The Rabbitohs have the best average score in the NRL (excluding the Raiders) with 24.5 points a game. They are the equal best metre gaining side in the competition and no side comes close to their line breaks.
Their only real Achilles heel is their relatively high error rate. I just got a feeling it is the Rabbits’ year.
How it will play out
I’ve gazed into my crystal ball and this is what I see happening:
Week 1
Rabbitohs defeat Dragons
Storm defeat Roosters
Panthers beat Broncos
Sharks beat Warriors
Week 2
Roosters beat Sharks
Panthers beat Dragons
Week 3
Rabbitohs beat Roosters
Storm beat Panthers
Week 4
Rabbitohs beat Storm
*The Broncos’ grand final victory in 1997 (followed by another in 1998) doesn’t count as it was a split competition.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Agree about the Bunnies. Not sure about your take on the Chooks though. Plenty big game players there. Personally, I think the Storm are a tier down and only hanging in by wrestling oppositions into frustration. If ruck were policed now as it was in first 4 weeks of comp, they'd be gone.
Roy
Guest
Hahahaha you blokes know nothing, it's always a week to week opinion. Next you'll be telling us that Scott Pryde knows nothing about the game.
Jacob
Guest
Surely if somebody needs to step up at the Sharks its Townsend, not Moylan.
Kramer
Guest
My name is Damon Nicholson. Now you're all about transparency Tim please tell us these people who hate/complain about The referee coaches Archer and Sutton. I imagine their would be disgruntled people that dislike those 2 but after having 8 people doing the Head referee job in Cecchin's refereeing tenure and those 8 people being fired i imagine its a poison chalice and not everyone is going to get along...but you know whats happening in the dark corridors and want to sign a petition to get these guys sacked after the "Travesty" to Funky (we get it, you know his nickname, you're in the know, you impress me) MacFarlene...so tell us more about the conspiracy with Greenberg and Canavan to keep these guys around? OR...maybe they are actually doing there best under extremely immense pressure. I'm not talking about getting off your arse and signing a petition kind of pressure, i'm talking working with each other day in and day out getting hosed by the media and wannabes like yourself who have no solution but just get emotional, get out there pitchforks and scream "sack them!!!!...just like the other referee bosses before them. You think you're helping but you're not! Also what happens when there is no one left to the do the referee's job because of the emotional distress and toll it takes on them like the referees? Like it did on Cecchin, like it did on the sacked referee coaches before?...i do believe even though we love to hate Archer and Sutton they are human as well and are doing the best they can under scrutiny by know it all's like yourself Rothfield, Alan Jones, Ray Hadley etc....where does it say the referees bosses are automatically our enemy when they get the job? maybe if we took deep breaths we will understand that they are doing there best but mistakes will happen, they are human...maybe Greenberg and Canavan know more than you and know how hard the job is day to day!..hard to believe i know Tim you knowing Warren Smith and all but just maybe there closer to the action than you are... SO even though you tell me i hide behind a monikor, you hide behind your computer as well telling everyone the sky is falling, do you do anything about it? no, just whinge like Rothfield, Kent and co...oh sorry you did sign a petition! if you love the game so much and think there is an issue get out and become a referee like i did, you just told me Archer and Sutton are "terrible" at there jobs so you obviously know how its run day in day out and you "know" people so get it going and make a difference. And good luck if you ever get into the position of referees bosses, you're going to need it!
RandyM
Guest
my end of season table is Storm 38 Rabbitohs 38 Roosters 38 Dragons 32 Warriors 32 Panthers 30 Sharks 30 Broncos 28 Tigers 26
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
Brisbane just lost to the Cowboys. Tigers have a sniff
Tim Gore
Expert
Well “Kramer”, thanks for your input from behind your pseudonym. It’s not just a game, it’s a multi billion dollar industry. The petition - not made by me - was calling for two incompetents to be sacked. I totally agree with that call and support it. I watched as Archer and Sutton completely scapegoated Macfarlane when Bernard’s brother Gerard could have fixed it by calling an attacking scrum and perenara could have fixed it by sending it back down as refs call advising of the flag. Both totally failed. Totally. Yet Neither suffered sanction while Macfarlane is still in Reggie’s. And Funky Reynolds is still dropped for calling a pass forward. This is a travesty. They dropped Cecchin from origin for unspecified allegations of poor form and gave his spot to Ash Klein who got dropped in round three. They dropped Grant Atkins for the finals out of the blue last year after clearly having him as one of their top three refs all year. They are nepotistic, biased and dreadful at their jobs. They are not adequately supporting the officials.That has been proved time and time again. I know. I talk to the officials, present and past. They tell me what total (insert expletives) archer and Sutton are. I’m trying to get those blokes a fair go. I reckon they should be sacked. If you reckon that makes me a looney that’s your right, I reckon it makes me a bloke who cares about getting people a fair go.
Kramer
Guest
Bad choice of words...but when Tim got a petition going to get people sacked (referree coaches) and wanted people from this site to sign it... I thought he has gone to far and someone should have told him he has gone to far! It’s just a game and twl people are involved...the world seems desensitised to this fact. but you’re right...bad choice of words!
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Yep. Hate to jump on the wrestling wagon, but it really looked like the Storm game plan was to wrestle the Bunnies out of it - and when that didn't work the Storm looked lost for ideas.
Stu
Guest
* Sea Eagles, Eels and Tigers only once
Stu
Guest
Fairly good indication right there of favourable draw. Warriors on the other hand have beaten 5 top 8 sides but have lost only 1 to a bottom eight side. Still yet to play Knights /Dogs and get Sea Eagles, Eels, Tigers
kk
Guest
Joe,he may get a run as assist but I doubt it. Hope he goes to Super League and we get the benefit of his experience in that arena on his return by way of referee education.
Larry1950
Guest
Remember last year the Cowboys limped into the 8 because of the dragons choking and then defied their 'busted' status to make the big dance. Why wouldn't the bottom four in the playoffs be capable of a similar effort? Nothing is a given this season, I fancy the Sharks to make it, not sure who they'll play & who will win.
Forty Twenty
Guest
Anyone who continues to support the Raiders or the Eels must be a loony.
Joe
Roar Rookie
No farewell GF for Cecchin?
Joe
Roar Rookie
I still have the Roosters as the favorites right from pre-season. I think they're hitting their peak at the right time and what was perceived to be their weakness the middle forwards are actually doing a great job allowing the crazy talent in their backline to flourish. I think they will beat the Inglisless Rabbitohs this weekend and stamp their authority on the competition.
Jacko
Guest
The forward pass in the Sharks win over the Warriors was absolutely cruicial looking back...Warriors would be on 28 and in the mix for top 4 and Sharks would be on 24 and in finals battles with the Tigers
Jacko
Guest
You are probably right that the Tigers are no more unlucky than most other teams but the Bronco's seem to get more "luck" than most
RM
Guest
Yep - if the Broncos face either Penrith or Sharks in the 1st week of the finals, they will be going to the 2nd week of the finals. After that, I wouldn't have much faith at all in them making the 3rd week, but considering how many experts at the start of the year tipped 2018 as the season the Broncos would miss the 8 entirely, I'll take a finals win then getting bundled out the following week by a top 4 team.
Adam
Roar Guru
Storm would be about the same level (top 4), Roosters in the 8 but in the bottom half. I think it wold dent their ability to win in week 1 but they would still get through week 2 and probably even a preliminary. A suspension would have to be very harsh to wipe him out for the whole of the finals series