Can anyone stop rampant Richmond from claiming back-to-back AFL flags?
With two rounds remaining, the Tigers sit a game clear atop the ladder and are assured of a top-two finish and a qualifying final at the MCG – the same venue where they have stormed their way to a record 19 straight victories.
Bookmakers TAB have Richmond as $2.25 premiership favourites – the shortest odds since Hawthorn firmed at $2 on the way to a third straight flag in 2015.
While they don’t carry the same aura of invincibility that accompanied the Hawks during their three-peat, Damien Hardwick’s men have been a clear step above the rest of the competition and boast a game-plan which is proven in September.
A lack of injuries to key players has helped but so too has their depth of contributors.
Jack Riewoldt has enjoyed a terrific season and sits equal-first on the Coleman Medal count with 58 goals but none of the remaining “Big Four” – Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Alex Rance – have surpassed their form of last year.
Martin should again earn All-Australian selection but has been a victim of his own standards following an astonishing 2017 campaign in which he took out an historic premiership, Brownlow Medal and Norm Smith Medal trifecta.
Shane Edwards, Kane Lambert, Nick Vlastuin, Josh Caddy and Jayden Short have been big improvers while Dylan Grimes and David Astbury have been reliable as ever.
So who can beat them?
None of Melbourne, Port Adelaide or Geelong are assured of making the finals. Sydney have been patchy, Hawthorn have impressed but are still very much developing while injuries are likely to prove too much for Collingwood.
West Coast sit second on the ladder. They are 4-0 in games played in Melbourne, have beaten all of Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, Geelong and Hawthorn and need just one more win to secure a qualifying final at their home fortress.
Importantly, the Eagles may have produced the blueprint for beating the Tigers.
When the two sides met in round nine at Optus Stadium – a ground with similar dimensions to the MCG – the Eagles controlled the ball, racking up 95 uncontested marks and denying the Tigers the high-pressure contest they relish.
Jack Darling, Josh Kennedy and Mark LeCras combined for 12 majors and West Coast ran out 47-point winners.
The obvious question is whether West Coast can overcome the loss of Nic Naitanui and suspended wingman Andrew Gaff, who had been in career-best form.
Scott Lycett goes a long way towards covering for Naitanui’s absence but it remains to be seen whether the Eagles’ midfield can manage without the tireless Gaff, particularly on the vast MCG.
Injuries also threaten to prove too much for GWS, who have been the form team of the competition since the midyear bye.
Tom Scully and Jonathon Patton are out for the season, Toby Greene remains several weeks away with a hamstring issue and Dawson Simpson, Sam Reid, Brett Deledio, Zac Williams and Heath Shaw have also been sidelined.
The Giants boast arguably the AFL’s most powerful midfield in Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward.
A top-four finish is within their reach but after losing to Richmond at a raucous MCG in last year’s preliminary final, have the Giants got what it takes to win in hostile territory?
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Was going to ask him to put his reputation on the line and have a wager. Then realised his reputation was worthless.
EddiefromElwood
Guest
Stop supposing and let the year play out!
EddiefromElwood
Guest
That's the most sense anyone on this comment thread has said! Thanks for being a voice of reason! Richmond are beatable, and guess what? So is every other team! They are in the box seat, however the only to find out if they win is let it play out!
Philby
Guest
Well, of course they can be beaten, any team can be beaten if they don't 'bring it' on the day. And any opponent of the Tigers in the finals will have had a good run of it themselves. But will the Tiges be beaten? It's less likely than any other team. While other teams have run hot and cold, Richmond has maintained consistently high standards all year, with each team lining up to have a pot shot at the reigning premiers. The bookies have us roughly $2.50 for the flag. That equates to a 28% chance of winning, or conversely, a 72% chance of any other team winning. From that point of view it is roughly a one in four chance for Richmond to win. Brad Scott was right, albeit a bit testy, when he said that a lot has to go right for us to win, but much more has to go right for any other team. It's been a superb flag defence so far - I hope the lads can keep it going and bring it home once again. There's certainly no reason why they can't.
J.T, Delacroix
Guest
His comments just plain stink, Murph. He’s the new resident loony on this site. It’s not just borderline anti-Richmond ; he crossed that border long ago.
big four sticks
Guest
Come off it! We are already looking at a threepeat. The tiger train is unstoppable.
Murphy
Guest
Why exactly should the cats have won against the tigers? - is it because of abletts last qtr miss? richmond had more scoring shots than the cats. - is it because the entire game was played in geelongs fwd line and they just couldnt put their chances away? richmond had 22 more inside 50s then geelong. - is it because geelong won the midfield battle in terms of clearances and contested possessions? richmond rank 8th in total contested possessions and 17th in total clearances for the season. You have to wonder how many teams SHOULD have beaten us considering how those 2 stats seem to have affected us this season. - is it because geelong had the better balance of play than the tigers? please apart from 2 10 minute bursts at the end of the 2nd and 4th qtrs (which seem to be geelongs specialty this season) richmond were all over them and it was their wastefullness going inside 50 which stopped the margin from blowing out. You really need to stop with your anti richmond campaign, its bordering on obsessive, you're posting about them more than your own team. Collingwood lost to them 3 weeks ago, get over it and move on. Your comments stink of nothing more than being a sore loser.
Realist
Guest
The only thing "weird" in this forum "Snide" is how unhinged your posting has become! You've become a laughing stock!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
It's funny that TTF and Realist always post at the same times isn't it? Weird.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
6 x 6, you take your flags when and how you can get them. Look at the Tigers last year? Never left the G. but have the cup. Having the cup is the only important point not how you got it.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Jonesracing the Cats should have won against the Tigers, they were the better side. Are we counting should haves now?
Jonesracing82
Guest
I'd argue we should have won 2 of the I/S games we lost, in both those games v Port & GWS we didn't take our chances. As for us not beating WCE in Perth, reckon most teams will struggle to beat them over there! P.S 1-6 v top 8 sides ain't a great record!
User
Roar Rookie
Pete I want Richmond gf day, why would I want an easy opponent for wce, to be the best you must conquer the best.
Realist
Guest
What an embarrassment! Time to send in the men in white coats!
Realist
Guest
Bordering on derangement. The Tigers really have got under "Snide's" skin. Its fast becoming a mental health issue I fear. His scribes are tarnished and no longer have any credibility due to his jealousy of Richmond. His "guru" status should be stripped as he has sunk now to extreme guru-deness!
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Huh?
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
An indecent obsession?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Just get the Tigers in Perth 6 x 6 in a preliminary and bang you’re in the GF.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I was like the lot of you PBH until seeing them first hand against the Pies and Cats and watching a depleted GWS team hand them another interstate beating. They just aren’t that far ahead of the pack and are pretty average interstate.
User
Roar Rookie
West coast, must say thanks for all the culture, character and can't win because if two players because an us vs the world attitude is hard to cultivate without ammo.