After seeing the Dragons hit another post-Origin drop in form for the third time in four seasons, it made me wonder where this stems from – particularly given their irresistible start to the year.
But this year in particular, Paul McGregor’s side has played the middle part of the season with five State of Origin players, and four who played all three games, which is something McGregor has never had to deal with to this extent since he became an NRL coach.
From the outside looking in, it is the Dragons’ management of several Origin stars and their inexperience in this area that could be contributing to their recent ‘slide’, and it simply comes down to resting players.
In recent years with players getting bigger and more athletic and with greater injury risk from more powerful collisions, coaches have been known to rest their Origin representatives at any given point during or post-Origin.
Last year, Craig Bellamy and the Melbourne Storm proved how important this was in the long term after giving their Origin players more than enough time to refresh themselves before going on to win the Premiership.
Considering the top eight as it stands, the top four teams have had three or more State of Origin players who played in at least two games, and each those players have been rested or did not play at some point during or after the Origin period other than bye rounds.
For the fifth-placed Dragons – excluding Tariq Sims, who played one Origin game – just one of their four other Origin players, Tyson Frizell, was rested or did not play at least once during the same period of the season.
Mary McGregor (AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
It was only about a month ago during a post-match press conference when McGregor to his credit, refused to make excuses for resting his Origin players and lauded his strength and conditioning staff on managing their individual workloads.
However, limiting the workload is not the vital issue. It is more to do with giving those players enough time outside of the day-to-day team environment for resting and rediscovering the early season form that got them into Origin contention in the first place. Or, in some cases, this can allow those players to use the Origin experience to better themselves in the back end of the year, such as Latrell Mitchell and Damien Cook for example.
Another factor is the significant roles of the Dragons’ Origin players in their state teams and their workloads during the series.
Tyson Frizell was one of New South Wales’ big-minute edge back-rowers, Paul Vaughan and Jack De Belin played as leading middle forwards, and Ben Hunt was a key playmaker in a Queensland side that was a heavily scrutinised following the representative retirements of Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk and Cam Smith.
This alone was reason enough to rest these players at some point despite having no post-Origin injuries, but because of the mentally-draining effect that Origin has on its players. And that’s exactly how those players look at the moment – mentally drained.
I cannot question the form that we saw of the St George back-row and new signing Ben Hunt in the first 16 rounds. The main reasons for the Dragons’ success so far have been Ben Hunt’s experience in the halves to take the sole playmaking pressure off Gareth Widdop, and the relentless aggression of Vaughan, De Belin, Ty Frizell and Tariq Sims in their defence and attacking runs.
[latest_videos_strip category=”league” name=”League”]
We know what the Dragons are capable of and what they can produce, based on the form that has kept them in the top four the whole year until now.
Their Origin stars are the key players needed to help the Dragons go far into the finals, but without a chance to properly refresh themselves after a gruelling Origin-affected season, I just can’t see them rediscovering their pre-Origin form.
My final thought is on the long-term effects that this year’s Origin series will have on the Red V, given this is the most Origin players that Paul McGregor has had since the start of his tenure in 2014.
Assuming Paul Vaughan, Jack De Belin, Tyson Frizell, Ben Hunt, and possibly Tariq Sims play State of Origin in 2019, St George Illawarra’s experience of the recent Origin period and its aftereffects could go a long way to helping them improve their position this time next season.
Wayne Turner
Guest
The coach - It's his pattern since coaching first grade. He needs to go...
Dodgy Dragons
Roar Rookie
I can’t blame origin for the dragons woes this year, it started before origin. At the start of the year Mary was rotating the bench forwards (Sele, Host, latimore, and a couple of others, swapping every round in the 16 and 17) and I thought great, he is planning for Frizell, de Belin sims and Vaughan if they get picked for origin. de Belin was playing busted before origin, then during origin and post origin and still no rest. None of these players were rested during the origin period except Frizell for one week. His management of the squad has been useless, aswell as not making tough calls on out of form players. As much as I love him, nightingale is past it, Aitken needs a spell in the reserves and the team need to focus on what works for them, direct thru the middle third and grind teams away. He has no plan b in attack, when teams rush up and pressure us defensively we look lost in attack and go sideways - no little kicks behind the line to keep the outside backs on their heels and we get picked off easily. Lack of confidence is definitely not helping, and conversely our defense is hanging back and opposition teams keep marching easily down the field. Mentally they are screwed atm and I can’t see us winning another game this season unless he gets in the players heads collectively and they pull it together and turn it around. Unfortunately I don’t think Mary is the man that can do it, maybe a Bellamy or Bennett, but not Mary, I hope he proves me wrong though!!!
Peter
Guest
Dont forget the test... graham and widdop played in those too
Muzz
Guest
The whispers of Skeletor and his favourites moving back to Kogarah has derailed the Dragons season. Mary is filthy!
Albo
Guest
Fair enough. Periera does look good, but why haven't others been tried in the top grade ? I guess it comes down to Mary & the selectors' lack of faith in their depth ?
Adam
Guest
You can't make a call on their depth because the guys in reserve grade never get a game despite the team sitting second on the ladder. Pereira has looked really good in his 4 games and guys like Herbert, Lomax and Field would offer more than some current players in the backline. Lafai has only scored 5 tries all season and I'm pretty sure he's played every game, yet he gets picked without fail.
Larry1950
Guest
James Graham was probably never going to sustain his form, given his age and injury history. Tyson Frizell has looked to be playing injured from the early rounds and has also not been used well, last year his form slumped post origin. Hunt is capable at half but struggles when the expectations of him rise so his recent form reflects what he did at the Broncos in 2016-17. Dufty seems to have lost a leg but that happens to rookies, he'll recover but maybe not in time to save their season. McGregor might not have found the secret to recovery when you have a heap of origin players in the squad but that confounde Bennett for years so he's in good company.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Expectations is an interesting word. I think most people had them fighting it out for a bottom of the eight spot pre season with probably a handful saying top four and a handful had them missing the eight. So based on that they’ve met their preseason expectations. But expectations change and when you’ve had an 8 from 9 / 12 from 15 start, limping into the 8 isn’t really good enough...unless McGregor can find the magic ingredient and lead them to a comp.
John
Guest
I would say origin along with the US game was a factor, but was a small factor. This slide has happened for 3 years running so I would put it down to the coach and the coaching tactics. At the start of the year, there were question marks on the performances Souths, Roosters and the Storm and look where they are now compare that with the three teams that cruised ahead at the start Dragons, Tigers and Warriors.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Yeah, I mean they were clearly the best and most consistant team pre origin but I'm not sure that being the best team at the start of the season directly translates to expectations that they should be the best at the end as well, especially when some of the advantages they had then start to dry up and other teams improve as the season goes on. I don't think starting out so hard did them any favours and Mary doesn't have a great history of maintaining the teams form over the season as it is so I think that getting the early results they did has only made the drop in form seem worse then it actually is. Even if they had maintained the form they had at the start of the season I'm not sure that would automatically put them on top of the table given the form of other sides.
Albo
Guest
I think the problem may well be a lack of depth in the Club limiting any refreshing of the team. They have a good top 13 when fit and firing, but not sure their replacements / back up players are strong enough. Hence the desperation to keep the top 13 on the field, despite a number of them having obvious injuries or exhausting SOO campaigns ( mental & physical). Jack DeBelin has been playing for months with a pillow strapped to his hip ? Frizzell is always carrying injuries. James Graham has had a crook neck for two years. Ben Hunt needs a therapist. Widdop has lost all form, along with Nightingale, Aitkin & Lafai. They look to be a team looking for the summer off season.
peeko
Guest
Barry, i think you are right here. i think they werent going as well as results indicated. your other comment about the match in Denver probably has some truth to it as well
Max Danger
Guest
but its not much quicker
The Barry
Roar Guru
A few of the early wins as well were when they weren’t playing well. I remember an earlyish game against Souths where they were pretty poor but toughed it out and I think won on penalty goals as you say. At the time the narrative was its good to win ugly but maybe it gave a false positive to how they were travelling.
souvalis
Guest
I've got no doubt they have the roster..the starting 13 all have impresive CV's..Mark Geyer made an interesting comment during the week when he said you can tell how keyed in a side is with the coach by the intensity of the play.. they were Keystone Cops like last week..really bad sign and so disappointing when you know they've got it in them but arent having a go...
Emcie
Roar Guru
I'm not sure origin has been the biggest contributer to be honest, it looked like they'd started to slide before then. The were 1 from 3 leading into game 1 and their losses coincided with injuries to hunt and de Belin. Before that when they were well on top they'd barely made a change to their lineup which is a massive advantage when it comes to consistancy. They also won a fair few games through goals rather then scoring more trys (eg. against the raiders they scored 7 more points despite having 3 trys each) and it probably isn't a coincidence that they were on top during the crack down thanks to having a top quality kicker. They were at their best when most of their competitors were still finding their feet and things were going pretty smoothly when they were. I think this has probably lead to unrealistic expectations being placed on them, and when you start dealing with niggling injuries and players having confidence issues while the rest of the playing field is hitting their stride the gap between what's expected and where your at can make things appear much harder to solve then they would be with a more realistic outlook.
Tom Gibbs
Roar Rookie
I agree with that Paul, I’m not using this to explain Aitken’s form and other players. And wasn’t looking at whether they had depth in the forwards or not or their record during the Origin periods, so it didn’t affect them as much in terms of wins and losses. And on McGregor’s coaching that is one way of how he could be managing players better, particularly his eligible and most likely Origin players. And he certainly could do that by not making his whole side go flat out for the first 12 rounds when they don’t necessarily have to, like you mentioned.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
McInnes, Aitken and the fullback have all lost form, are playing nowhere near the level they were in the first half of the season, and they didn't play any Origin
Forty Twenty
Guest
I commented well before Origin that the Saints forwards were coming off the boil. Even though they were still winning at that stage they weren't dominating and it was the start of the slide. Imagine if NSW lost the series as well. Teams can have a couple of players coming off the boil but with Saints they all seem to do it. Turbo Jake played big minutes in Origin and has come back to Manly and their crappy facilities and been one of their best since. Saints look worse than last year when they were slip sliding away and the fact that it is repeating is compounding the impact I'd say.
Paul
Roar Guru
Your opening sentence sums up the Dragons - they've had 3 bad slumps in 4 years, so while playing SOO can't have helped, it shouldn't have hurt either. They had a glamour run through Origin, playing 3 bottom placed teams, and should have had the forward depth to cover if any of Sims, Vaughan, Frizell or De Belin were underperforming .In other words, I don't buy SOO as a reason for these guys not performing when you look at the strength of their 25 man roster. SOO doesn't explain Aiken's complete drop off in form, for example, nor the amount of mistakes the Dragons have made in recent weeks. I really think it comes down to McGregors coaching style, as The Barry suggests. He can get guys going flat out at the start of the year, but the really good coaches build into a season. Mary would benefit from working under a guy like Bellamy, or at least picking his brain at season's end, which might be soon for the red V. The only other option is to find another coach, not named Barrett or Cleary!