So Melbourne are the feelgood story of the AFL right now, and are getting acclaim for the way they dismantled Geelong in the first elimination final.
Truth be told, they should have won by plenty more as their physical pressure and manic approach to the game was something else. But the real story is on the other side of the ledger, where the Cats’ finals record slipped to 3-9 since they won their last flag in 2011.
In those 12 finals, they have won just four first quarters and on four occasions have been more than 30 points down at the first change. In finals, that is a death knell, especially in a sudden death game, of which all four of those were. There are many theories about a team that starts so slowly, on a consistent basis, in big games and coaching is one, but let’s park that one for now.
Geelong’s list is the third-oldest in the AFL in 2018 and the sixth most experienced. That list profile screams of a club that considers themselves in the premiership window, although the Cats have probably not considered themselves outside that window in the last decade.
Some of its oldest players are some of its best, but the list contains more than a few players around who there is a question mark. Either due to injury or lack of performance, the following middle-aged players are no longer deserving of a position on the list: George Horlin-Smith, Lachie Henderson, Aaron Black, Zac Smith, Daniel Menzel and Scott Selwood.
Some of those players have never had a good run of it in terms of their body, but Menzel has seemed checked out for most of the season and the hype far outweighs his performances, especially in big games. Scott Selwood was a solid foot soldier, maybe more but the game has gone well past someone with his limitations although his surname may keep him in a job.
Henderson was never more than a gap-filler and now has become a guy surplus to requirements with the development of Tom Stewart and Mark Blicavs, and the early promise shown by Mark O’Connor.
Move up the age list a little further, and it’s sad to say that Harry Taylor is done; he was a great servant, maybe more than that, but like Henderson, he is no longer worthy of a list spot.
Their ability to grab mature-age recruits has been remarkable – Sam Menegola and Tim Kelly are quality footballers, adding depth to an already stacked midfield. Of the young crew, Brandan Parfitt and Esava Ratugolea demand to be in the first 22 when fit, as do Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij.
In Tom Hawkins they have an old-fashioned full-forward who is peaking at age 29; forget the All-Australian team, which was an absolute shambles – he is elite and as good as any key forward in the game. Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield both turn 30 in the next 20 months; that is an alarming statistic, especially in Selwood’s case as his body has taken an absolute battering.
Dangerfield remains the mouthpiece of the AFL Players Association and is happy to voice his opinion on any subject, but he can’t hide from the fact that his recent finals performances have been, on the whole, sub-par.
Patrick Dangerfield of the Cats walks from the field. (Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Now, when I say sub-par it is in the context of what he is – one of the best players of the generation. With that label comes the expectation that you play well when your team needs it. Not saying he has had many poor games, but his impact in finals has been well below what is expected and his field kicking has always been a problem, which becomes magnified in September.
Selwood is a warrior and may actually be underrated as a footballer; to have won three best and fairest awards at such a strong club, and to walk into the 2007 side as a 19-year-old and demand respect immediately is incredible. He has drawn plenty of scrutiny over the years for ducking and trying to milk free kicks, but that’s noise – he is tough, skillful and resilient and it was a shock to see him play so poorly against Melbourne.
His body language and general disgust after the game was a sign of great leadership; it meant the world to him to lose, and you wonder whether he glances around the change-rooms and wonder if it means that much to some of the other players.
The third gun in the midfield might be the best player of our generation and the oldest player on the list. Gary Ablett has given fans the absolute best of footy for well over a decade, and there seems to be plenty ready to pot him.
The way he handled his last season at Gold Coast was questionable at best, grossly unprofessional at worst, but the fact remains that he has set the bar so very high, that anything less than perfection is criticised far too heavily. He has never been a strong tackler, nor paid much respect to opponents when it comes to running and chasing, but quite frankly he has never had to.
The vitriol spewing out of many media mouths this season about him being soft, past it and too slow is rubbish; he has to be the cream on the cake, not the cake itself. The issue with cream is that it has an expiry date, as do footballers…especially when they are 33 years old.
A cursory glance back over the names listed so far tell you one thing – this is a side absolutely stacked with talent and the list profile tells you the club consider themselves well within the premiership window. The fact is, that they are as far from winning a flag as most sides who didn’t even make the eight and while you can only make six to eight list changes a year, limiting their ability to turn over too many players, you can make a change that is far more impactful right now – move on from the coach.
Chris Scott apologists will argue that he is a premiership coach, and that he is. They will also say that sacking the coach is the easy way out, but this list doesn’t need a total overhaul, and only half a dozen list positions can realistically be turned over every season.
To coach the 2011 Geelong team to a flag is in effect having a car on cruise control; there is very little driving skill involved. That side was at the back end of the best five-year period in modern footy history and had as many as half a dozen on-field coaches. That grand final was memorable for a few reasons; Meatloaf managed to butcher every single word that came out of his mouth, and it was the high-point of Scott’s coaching career (obviously) in his first season.
To be sitting here, seven years later, and having the quality of player he has had over the journey, and to have just three finals wins to show for it (with no grand final appearances and three preliminary finals losses by an average of 34 points, including two in which they scored one combined goal) is mediocre at best, and an absolute indictment at worst.
Geelong’s home ground advantage is arguably the best in the league, they have a multitude of quality and yet they finish 2018 in limbo, and as far away from being a flag contender as they have been since 2011. Ablett, Selwood, Dangerfield and Hawkins will all likely be lost to the game in the next three to four years and while the next crop looks strong, the coach hasn’t proven an ability to do anything other than fire off a decent cliché in a press conference.
Joel Selwood (L) and Gary Ablett lof the Cats. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Re-signing Scott until the end of 2022 was one of two things – either blind faith in a coach who led the team to the summit of the mountain once and hasn’t gotten halfway up again since; or acceptance that this side will likely be around the mark as a finals team every year. If it is the former, the club owes their members and fans more.
If it’s the latter, it’s an indictment on a club that, along with Hawthorn, has set the standard for modern excellence and may actually have been ‘the greatest team of all’. As long as Scott remains in charge, Geelong fans can look forward to a whole lot more disappointment. A Great Scott, this is most definitely not.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Their success with mature-age recruits and the signing of Dangerfield and Ablett would suggest to me that they are all-in on flags. In any case, thanks for the feedback and thanks for reading Simon
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks for the feedback Jorge, and for taking the time to read
Simon
Guest
One too many Champagnes in the Corporate Box my friend. The point is Geelong don't see winning Premierships as being the entire base on which to judge a season. They have not finished bottom 4 since 1975! Brian Cook and Co are clearly playing for finals. But they have a closer eye on the commercial side of the club. And that doesn't include bottoming out and going back to youth. Gary Ablett was certainly a commercial success. And no one ever discusses that fact. But Cook and his 'bean counters' would be delighted with the return received on Ablett - 2018. My point is - Geelong see a bigger picture than just winning a Premiership. And maybe they are right.
Wise Old Elf
Guest
The last five seasons or so and particularly this season you can see that Geelong has just been happy to make up the numbers. They won those three flags and now they are back to "Old Geelong" where they want to play pretty football and enjoy being a part of the competition never seriously being a threat. Anyone who knows Sleepy Hollow knows what I mean. Classic small town thinking. They went out there and got pretty footballers, who won't win you much, but are great looking players on paper. The management at Geelong want to keep their jobs and by making the hard decisions, like what has gone on at Carlton as an example just will not happen at the Cats because they are trying to save their own backsides. The Blues could have kept on getting in top up players and been a chance to do a Geelong or a North Melbourne and just hung around the edges of the 8 but they made the decision that to be a genuine chance to win a flag sometime they had to go through some pain. Geelong will just keep on going the way it has been(as will North) because everyone down there is on a good thing. They are out on the golf course down the Bellarine Pen, some are out surfing down the coast. They are living the privileged lives of pro sportsmen. They even get their pick of the best looking birds in the district. A start is to clean out the footballing department management and bring in new, hungry people. Otherwise, just expect a gradual decline to bottom four status coming very soon.
Jorge of Brisvegas
Roar Rookie
Steven, The premise of your article is that either the administration of Geelong is either showing blind faith hoping they can win (not based on evidence) or the indictment (assuming they have resigned coach knowing they will not win a flag with Scott at helm). Your finishing tag line is paraphrasing “NOT a GREAT Scott”. So probably only a good or avearage Scott? In the all too common classification of a plethora of neagitively critique articles, that tear down but offer no gist of solutions. You have actually outlined their post 2011 premiership performance reasonably well (although obviously blinkered to support your argument), and highlighted deficiencies and missed opportunities well. What may have truly set you apart from the rest is actually articulately outlining an alternative option, surely your argument owes the members and fans of Geelong that. Perhaps your article may have been titled, “Where Geelong should not have gone next” !
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
The cats played blooper football on Friday night. Really if you haven't had a laugh about some of those clangers..?! Never in the field of football has so much been stuffed up by so few... (that's Winston Churchill footyized) No one was immune and it never stopped. If they had have planned to butcher it so bad they would have struggled. Kicking into the man on the mark, falling over, missing sitters on and on it went. Hopefully this was the bottoming out of the early finals exits we have been on a run of. It couldn't get worse than that. And if it does next year I'm bringing popcorn and a bottle of fizzy drink. And have another big old laugh. To see Selwood Gazza and Danger turn to footy clown prince idiots. It's like they were trying to dismantle their own legend together before they ever made one. They all need to book the best ballroon in Geelong dress up in their best black tie duds and have a big old fashioned pie fight. Slapstick comedy it was and I want a copy of that blooper reel complete with some Benny Hill music. (English Comedian pioneer of TV comedy) Man I love those cats even when they stuff up they do it with a bit of style.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks for your feedback. The direction is clear; their list profile says they are in the premiership window and yet in reality they are light years away. With another 4 years of Scott doing what he has done for the last 7 years, they will see Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett and likely Hawkins retire without another flag and be left in a state of flux.
reuster75
Roar Rookie
2013 was the only flag we should've won since 2011 but our lack of a quality ruckman cost us (Sandilands destroyed us in the qualifying final and we then ran out of legs in last quarter against a fresh Hawthorn side in the prelim), not the coach. Whilst I am not a huge fan of Chris Scott the reality is that re-signing him made sense in that the club are committed to the current list management path which will reach it's end point around the time his contract is due to expire.
The Corporate Box
Roar Rookie
Steven no disputing that it’s an ageing list but your story doesn’t deliver on your headline. You don’t offer a direction for the Cats. We readers are left wondering where to for the Cats. Finish the story Steven paint the future picture as Jake Niall did in the Age. We need another option, go to it.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks for reading Joe, you definitely make some good points and they could be used to paint an entirely different picture
Annie
Guest
Matthew Scarlett, Steve Johnson, Jimmy Bartel, Gary Ablett (whilst in Gold Coast), Corey Enright, Joel Corey, James Kelly, Brad Ottens, Andrew Mackie... a couple of average players the club has lost in the years since 2011. To rebuild our list and continually play finals is amazing. But how dare Chris Scott have only won us one premiership and only missed the finals once!
Observer
Guest
If I recall my team the Tigers were supposedly on the verge of sacking Hardwick a year early after being smashed in 3 consecutive elimination finals (13, 14 & 15) and then falling to 13th place in 2016. The board in hindsight extended his contract to settle that issue during the season and looked what happened..... The Tigers have a strong club ethic / spirit - the Cats need to likewise buy 100% into their plan from the top down to the bottom.
Joe
Guest
I'm interested to hear which 2-3 flags Geelong would have won with a different coach over the last 7 years? 2016 I'll give you, Geelong had the team to win it but were embarrassed in the first quarter of that prelim. Maybe if Scott's not there, Cats win. But what other year?
Joe
Guest
Some good points in this article, some horrible ones. Just want to point out before I really get into it, Scott Selwood is the best tackler on the list. Dumping him is the opposite of the right direction. Anyway on Chris Scott, his record after byes is no doubt an embarrassment. It would be silly to place all the blame on him, but also silly to think he has nothing to do with it. This is now the third finals series in a row where Geelong have lost the game almost entirely in the first quarter. It's as simple as that. However this article seems to go out of it's way to ignore everything but the worst statistics. You say he hasn't "proven the ability to do anything", despite him having the highest winning percentage of any coach in history (with more than 100 games coached). You give zero credit for a rebuild that's occurred with only a single missed finals campaign. You ignore Geelong's defence being one of the best in the league this year, despite almost entirely new faces. Not everything is shit. Now no doubt the response to this is "all that matters is finals", but I think you're kidding yourself to just ignore everything except those 12 matches. Geelong HAVE stood up against the strongest teams for years. Let's not ignore that ALL those slow first quarters in finals have come after weeks off, which we know Geelong can't handle (see the Bulldogs game after the bye this year, or any other previous post-bye performance). If Geelong had been remotely competitive in those first quarters, who knows where we'd be right now? Does sacking Scott fix the problem? Maybe. But it also has every chance to send Geelong out of the finals for a few years as the game style changes (as often happens with new coaches), and as this article points out, there's only a few years left of Danger/Selwood/Hawkins. Not a good time to risk it. Geelong's 2018 midfield was wasted, and its forward line isn't good enough. But those problems have arisen this year, and one year should not end a proven coach's run. Let's not act like the last 7 years Scott's done nothing with the list, and somehow lucked into finals positions, and had a game style consistently smashed by the best teams. Scott leaving is more likely to exacerbate the problems than fix them.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I don’t know but I’d have a fair guess Carlton, Suns, Saints, North, Pies, Lions, Freo, Bullies and co wouldn’t mind playing finals and being in contention every year bar one since 2011. This is a side reinvented on the run that has given great value for its fans since 2007. They will no doubt contend again in 2019 after some off season tweaking.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks fo the feedback Jai. I don’t know too many Cats fans who agreed with Scott’s extension. It smacks of accepting mediocrity, which is the opposite to how the club has run for years now
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Great point Jai, one thing I have learnt is not to dare question the way the Dockers operate!
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
It would be good to hear a counter argument but in the absence of that, thanks for reading Don
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
No. There is no logic.
Observer
Guest
The Cats currently have the cattle to win finals and go much deeper than a elimination final. On the face of it it's no surprise to see the team ranked 8th go out in week 1 of the finals. However, in 2018 the Cats proved to be fantastically inconsistent and to my of thinking failed to play to expectation given the list they have on paper. They also did cop a bell shaped curve of injuries earlier in the season which seems to have derailed them more than other clubs with similar injury losses. The so called 'Holy Trinity' on paper still still makes the mouths of most other clubs water and on paper still look formidable but they are yet to get the best out of that trio. Add to the Holy Trinity the likes of Ratugolea, Menegola and particularly Kelly and you have a top shelf quintet of deft ball handlers and carriers. Hawkins is moving and kicking as good as he ever did and players like Stewart and Tuohy are holding the backline together. The Cats need much more from mid ranking players who have had ordinary seasons and are yet to really step up from their levels back 2 & 3 years ago , players like Duncan, Menzel, Henderson, Thurlow, Murdoch, Bews and prob. even Cam Guthrie are yet to improve to another level compared to their 2014/15/16 form. There are some bright lights coming up like Knarkle, Parfit and Buzza, but there is also some old wood to prune with the likes of Taylor failing to make much impact when he is selected. I'd also like to see Scott Selwood used as a genuine tagger as there are a lot of teams out there who can fail on a day when their 'go to' player is clamped down on - yes, I still think the current game has room for genuine taggers.....