The A-League is expanding from ten to 12 teams for the 2019-20 season and there are eight bidders looking for the licences.
The favourites are believed to be Team 11 from South-East Melbourne and the newly merged South-West Sydney/United for Macarthur bid. These two teams are ticking a lot of boxes for the FFA and for a lot of people. But there is something that is not on the needs list that should be.
Today I look at local club successes, the area’s players and area coverage.
When the Western Sydney Wanderers came into the league, the semi-professional clubs that were in the area they wanted to cover were having success in the NSW Premier League. They had premiers in the Bonnyrigg White Eagles, 2nd place in Sydney Olympic, champions Marconi Stallions, 5th place Blacktown City, 6th place APIA Leichhardt Tigers, 9th place Sydney United and 11th place Blacktown Spartans and the relegated team that year, the Paramatta Eagles.
Yeah, you read that right, the Western Sydney region had seven of the 13 teams in the NSW league. That number has now decreased to six teams but this fact has definitely contributed to their success.
Conversely, the North Queensland Fury had 3 teams out of 11 in the 2009 Queensland State League in their covered region. Gold Coast United didn’t have any which is, in my opinion, a big reason as to why the two did not have as good success at the start.
So, what do the expansion frontrunners have in this category? First, we will look at the Team 11 region which is South-East Melbourne, in the 2018 NPL Victoria season, the region Team 11 wants to cover includes 2nd place Bentleigh Greens, 5th place Pascoe Vale and 8th place Dandenong Thunder.
Three out of 14 is not too bad but it can be better. They can’t really cover other regions as they are basically not wanted or taken by Victory or City or other bids so they just have to improve teams in that area. They also have three teams from NPL2.
With South-West Sydney/United for Macarthur, their wanted region is very blocked. It is covered by the Western Sydney Wanderers and by Southern Expansion who would have clubs lined up. So the clubs in this region for the NPL are none. Yes, they don’t have an NPL club in this region. The most successful club in this region would be the Mounties Wanderers who finished 6th in the NPL 2 although they also have another 10 clubs in the area.
They are mainly a fail in this area.
West Melbourne has two, South Melbourne have themselves Southern Expansion have two and the Wollongong Wolves have themselves. This makes Southern Expansion the highest for this in NSW. Canberra and Capital Region have their NPL division, but the league is not as high quality as others.
This is where supporter cannibalisation comes in. The FFA is overly concerned that Southern Expansion will take members of Sydney FC as around 5000 of their members are from that region. But if they will take fans, then South-West Sydney will definitely steal from the Wanderers. It is the same with stealing local clubs.
Verdict for local clubs: SWS/UFM can’t steal from the Wanderers and don’t have many clubs – 3/10
Verdict for local clubs: Team 11 have a few clubs in a blocked area – 6/10
Another issue is that these clubs will have to look at players from their region for talent. In the Western Sydney Wanderers first season, they had 11 of their 24 players including Aaron Mooy, Mark Bridge and Tarek Elrich coming from Western Sydney and just remember that they won the premiership that year. I expect the new expansion clubs to need a similar amount.
(Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)
With South-West Sydney, players from their region that they could realistically get could be Bernie Ibini, Abraham Majok, Jonathan Aspropotamitis and Mario Shabow. They may have to look in other regions of NSW to find their quality.
On the other hand in Team 11, I would go for players like Leigh Broxham, Kenny Athiu, Rashid Mahazi, Connor Pain, as they are from the South-East Melbourne region. So the two frontrunners definitely need to find more players but there are so many untouched regions that need discovering.
Other regions with great talent would be Wollongong or Canberra. The Wolves could get Lachlan Scott, Tomislav Arcaba, Josh Macdonald and Corey Gameiro. Canberra could pick up Marc Tokich, Steven Lustica and possibly Nikolai Topor-Stanley.
Verdict for talent from the region: SWS/UFM do not have a great amount – 5/10
Verdict for talent from the region: Team 11 need a little more – 5/10
Now to look further into the area they can cover and all bids can do a little bit. The Western Pride could possibly take regional Queensland and go as far as Birdsville. South-West Sydney can’t really go anywhere. Canberra could look to Wagga Wagga.
Wollongong could go for Goulburn. Southern Expansion are limited. South Melbourne can’t really go anywhere. Team 11 can’t really go anywhere and West Melbourne could go to Ballarat.
All A-League clubs are engaged with the region that they are in which also means that they are linked to all NPL clubs in the area. The new clubs must be all networked. If they don’t get that then I don’t know how they will be able to develop youngsters.
I am not sure if any of the A-league bidders have this. One solution would be to expand the NPL before expanding the A-league, but this is just a little bit of bad stuff so I am not saying they should not expand at all.
So in conclusion, the two bidders that come in whoever they are, will have nowhere near enough space, nowhere near enough clubs and nowhere near enough players. I think that Southern Expansion should leave Wollongong and merger with South-West/Macarthur and Team 11 should merge with South Melbourne.
Broader regions mean more clubs and more clubs mean better players. It’s a tough one because these are three topics that don’t really seem to matter but should. You need to have junior clubs in your area and you can’t really do that if your region is very small.
Adrian
Guest
Bit slow to this sorry - while other commenters have rightly said that Pascoe Vale is in North West Melbourne rather than South East Melbourne, you missed ones that actually are in the south east - Oakleigh and Kingston City. So it's 4 from this season's NPL.
John Mangos
Guest
I agree, Wollongong is a speperate identity, they have their own track record in the NSL and a captive area primed ready to go. The sydney bids, albeit good, seem to be in amongst Sydney FC and WSW areas. To me southern expansions inclusion of Illawarra will be at the expense of the proper expansion of the game, particularly the supporter base in Wollongong who jsut don't identify as Sydney siders or Southern Sydney siders.
Onside
Roar Rookie
Want a team in South East Melbourne? Here is one we prepared earlier. https://goo.gl/images/gC63yG
Ken
Guest
South coast fans also live in shellharbour. Kiama Nowra over two hours from Sydney lthe south coast isn't just wollongong it's further south as well,the Shoalhaven is a huge soccer district with feeder clubs for the wolves.wolves have the best feeder clubs on the south coast of any of the bid teams
Kangas
Roar Rookie
Yes to Wollongong No to southern franchise
Onside
Roar Rookie
Want a team in Melbourne's south east? South Melbourne is in the SE and all are welcome.
chris
Guest
APIA and Sydney Olympic are so not Western Sydney! They are if anything in Sydney FC territory. Please if you are going to write an article make it somewhat accurate.
Phil
Roar Rookie
I'd go one step further and say: A merger between Southern Expansion and SWS/Macarthur makes no sense. A merger between Southern Expansion and the NSW South Coast make no sense. It's an earlier and quicker drive from Campbelltown to Wollongong than from Campbelltown to Loftus or wherever the Southern Expansion would end up. Any stadium they build is years away. Southern Expansion does not understand who they are trying to represent. Without an identity they will fail as a club. Look at any successful sporting club at what ever level in any sport and the clubs that survive and thrive have an identity that the supporters can be part of.
Phil
Roar Rookie
I agree "At Work" APIA Leichhardt is far more Sydney FC than Wanderers territory. Leichhardt is only about 7km from the Sydney CBD.
kenny
Guest
The south coast supports the wolves not southern Sydney expansion bid .its what the fans want is what counts .Southern bid can get stuffed south coast will never support you .wolves are our team .Football south coast supports the wolves bid not southern Sydney bid.
james
Guest
what is it you don't understand the south coast is not part of Sydney south coast fans do not want to be a part of any Sydney team .we have our own team the Wollongong wolves . i live in Nowra i will NOT travel two hours by car or three hours by train hell we don't even have electrification down here .the dragons only play two games a year win wollongong because the coast has not accepted that team .the wolves are our team on the south coast and football south coast our association have made it clear it the south coast association backs the wollongong wolves bid 100% not the Sydney bid .
rolly
Guest
southern sydney expansion can not include the south coast of NSW in their bid its simply too far away from sydney ,kids that live in nowra or shellharbour or kiama Balgownie or flinders will not and never will travel two hours to sydeny to support a sydney team .so southern expansions bid is crap a joke fanciful if they think south coat fans will support them especially as they have stated their home ground will be in sydney at loftus .30,000 registered players 13,000 registered juniors in their figures are actually misleading as they are Wollongong wolves juniors that belong to the wolves .the south coast belongs to the Wollongong wolves . I will travel from nowra to wollongong to support the wolves but not another hour on top to sydney .no chance .
rolly
Guest
good read and true fact remains FFA not interested in the best bid its all about money and capital city teams get favoritism . Regional cities don't stand a chance not that regional cities don't have the advantage or meet all the requirements .to me the Wollongong wolves is the best bid meets all the criteria one region one city new market history fans supporters and a stadium in place, .the wolves they have the whole south coast to themselves illawarra and shoalhaven southern highlands all comes under the illawarra region all have local comps with multitude of teams the wolves can draw local talent from . there are 11 teams in the first grade comp in the shoalhaven and and 12 teams in the Wollongong comp 1st grade plus all the junior teams at least another 10 in each age group as feeder clubs for the wolves.no other team can boast that most of these kids do not aspire to play in the A league as the region does not have an A league team and no one is willing to travel two hours or more one way to sydney to train with a Sydney team from Bowral kiama shellharbour or Nowra and should not be expected to. . the wolves have win stadium which is a 1st class football stadium all to themselves no fantasy stadium its real its their its all paid for .the history the support of the community the university support and world class sports faculties at Wollongong university, a region of 600,000 to draw from .the north coast of nsw has two teams in the A league the south coast has none .go figure .Wollongong is nsw third largest city it deserves a team in the A league but for a corrupt FFA.the kids on the south coast are the biggest losers if the wolves bid does not make it .
rolly
Guest
there are five thousand Sydney fc members that live in the st George sutherland area and thousands more that support the team sydney fc but are not members in the sutherland st george area the south coast fans have made it clear every survey by the local media has shown no fans from the south coast will ever support a sydney team they all want to support their own team the wollongong wolves. southern sydney exppansion want to draw from three different regions have three home grounds in three areas? .its bound to be a negative for Sydney fc who already struggle for fans . if you live on the south coast you will not want to travel two hours or more to watch a sydney team .it wont work .the south coast is not part of sydney.fans on th coast do not associate themselves with sydney never will
At work
Roar Rookie
Interesting angle you’ve taken here. I’ll say this though, APIA Leichhardt has and never will be Wanderers territory. Leichhardt is clearly in the SydFC ‘catchment’ for want of a better word. And merging Southern Sydney with SW Sydney, surely you’re havin a laugh.
Dart
Guest
The Wollongong Wolves are my team and I will never attend Southern Expansion. The Wolves have history and are a recognised and respected brand. Wollongong has its own identity.
Chris Gardiner
Roar Rookie
Yes
Old Greg
Guest
Morwell? Team 11 could go there.
Jordan Klingsporn
Roar Guru
Quick question, would you guys like to see previews and reviews on the NPL Finals
Nick Symonds
Guest
Sydney FC have been said to be too nebulous by trying to represent too large an area and I think SE would risk the same thing by doing something similar by trying to link the three regions. I think it would be better for SE to just focus on Southern Sydney so that you could really market the fixture with the Sky Blues as the "East Sydney Derby". There might be infrastructure links down the South Coast but I'm not sure the cultural links are strong enough between Southern Sydney and Wollongong. People in Wollongong only seem lukewarm about sharing the Dragons as it is, would more fixtures help? Having said all that, SWS and Macarthur have merged while Brisbane City have dropped out. That just leaves Western Melbourne, South East Melbourne, South Melbourne and Ipswich as the only bids from major cities outside of Sydney. So if FFA and FOX want to put the next two teams in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane then Southern Expansion has a 1 in 3 chance of getting in. Ipswich would have to share Lang Park with Brisbane Roar while South Melbourne might be too controversial for FFA. So the 4 main contenders in the next round of expansion would then be Southern Expansion, Campbelltown, Western Melbourne and South East Melbourne. That puts the odds for Southern Expansion at 50/50. Or if you add all four in one go then it's 100%. SE have said that they are willing to work with Campbelltown and even Sydney FC but if you're willing to work with Western Melbourne and South East Melbourne together as a block then maybe all four would be successful. All four are strong bids from Sydney and Melbourne so it won't be hard to convince broadcasters, it's just a matter of getting FFA onside.