Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks: NRL preliminary final preview and prediction

A banged up Cronulla Sharks will travel south for a do-or-die NRL preliminary final with a rested, refreshed and hopeful Melbourne Storm.

The Storm have had everything go to plan for the second straight year, and despite their superstars ageing, look to be the best chance of a side going back-to-back in decades.

After belting the North Queensland Cowboys in the 2017 grand final, it appears as if the men from Melbourne are on a trajectory to do it again against either the Rabbitohs or Roosters, although maybe not to the same level.

Whichever way the cookie crumbles, it’s going to be a brilliant finish to the season.

Standing in their way of making a third consecutive grand final is an always fearsome Cronulla side who beat them just weeks ago, but the week off is the best thing that could have happened for the Storm, with Nelson Asofa-Solomona returning and the duo of Billy Slater and Cameron Smith having a much-needed breather.

Slater maybe less so though. While Smith has been looking fatigued, the week off means Slater has only played one game since Round 24 after he had the final week off the regular season off as well for personal issues.

Of course, the Storm only just scraped into the week off, getting past the Rabbitohs in their home qualifying final by a point.

In what was a free-flowing, high-scoring game of rugby league, Melbourne used all the experience and talent in the side as well as a misfiring set of Burgess brothers to get past the Bunnies.

They looked tired at the back-end of the game, as the Sharks did last week.

No matter what, the Storm look in better shape than the Sharks, who have had two outrageously tough finals so far against the Roosters and Panthers.

Scott Drinkwater of the Storm (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

The loss to the Roosters in the first week of the finals was a frustrating one for the black, white and blue. They squandered opportunities all game long and could have easily snatched the game.

Instead, they lost by nine points and found themselves backing up last week, where, again they should have had an easier run after dominating the first half. As the Panthers have done so many times this year though, they fought their way back into the contest and took it right to the wire, with the Sharks eventually winning by a point.

The tough second half and previous game against the Roosters has left Shane Flanagan’s side under fatigue and pressure. They will need something special to win in the Victorian capital, but even with their injuries, if there’s one side who can do it, it’s Cronulla.

What can almost be guaranteed between these sides though is a physical encounter. The Storm and Sharks don’t hold anything back in trying to dictate the tempo, tone, pace and position of the game.

History

The match everyone is going to remember heading into this one is the 2016 NRL grand final. The Storm, playing without Billy Slater on that occasion came up short.

These two clubs have won the last two grand finals between them though and now find themselves back at the pointy end of the season.

Overall, there is very little between the clubs, with the Storm holding an eight-game advantage. They have had the better of most of their records since inception though, so it’s little surprise.

The Sharks have been much better in recent times though, winning four of their last five against the Storm, so they will take plenty of confidence from that.

Interestingly, their record in Melbourne is heavily skewed in favour of the Storm, but they lost their last two matches against Cronulla at the venue. That includes one earlier this year in Round 22 as the Sharks ground out a three-point win which helped them eventually sneak into the top four for the double chance.

Overall record: Played 36, Storm 22, Sharks 14
Last meeting: Round 22, 2018 – Storm 14 defeated by Sharks 17 at AAMI Park, Melbourne
Last five: Sharks 4, Storm 1
Record at AAMI Park: Played 9, Storm 7, Sharks 2
Record in finals: Played 2, Storm 1, Sharks 1
Last finals meeting: 2016 grand final – Sharks 14 defeat Sharks 12 at ANZ Stadium, Homebush

Team news

Melbourne Storm
1 Billy Slater, 2 Suliasi Vunivalu, 3 Will Chambers, 4 Curtis Scott, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Brodie Croft, 8 Jesse Bromwich, 9 Cameron Smith, 10 Tim Glasby, 11 Felise Kaufusi, 12 Joe Stimson, 13 Dale Finucane
Interchange: 14 Kenneath Bromwich, 15 Christian Welch, 16 Ryan Hoffman, 17 Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 18. Brandon Smith 19. Jahrome Hughes 20. Sam Kasiano 21. Cheyse Blair

The week off has worked a dream for the Storm. Their players have overcome niggles and they are virtually at full strength with two games to go in the season.

Will Chambers will make his return from suspension, while Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Ryan Hoffman have both been added to the bench in a clear attempt to add more size against the Cronulla pack.

Brandon Smith has interestingly been dropped to the reserves alongside Sam Kasiano and Cheyse Blair for the returning players.

Also on the bench is Jahrome Hughes, with an in-form Brodie Croft again winning the race for the number seven jersey.

Cronulla Sharks
1 Valentine Holmes, 2 Sosaia Feki, 3 Jesse Ramien, 4 Ricky Leutele, 5 Edrick Lee, 6 Matt Moylan, 7 Chad Townsend, 8 Andrew Fifita, 9 Jayden Brailey, 10 Matt Prior, 11 Luke Lewis, 12 Kurt Capewell, 13 Paul Gallen (injured)
Interchange: 14 Scott Sorensen, 15 James Segeyaro, 16 Aaron Woods, 17 Jayson Bukuya, 18 Josh Dugan, 19 Ava Seumanufagai, 20 Joseph Paulo, 21 Kyle Flanagan

With news breaking on Thursday evening that Paul Gallen would miss the contest (apart from this piece requiring a re-write in places), the challenge for Cronulla has become astronomically tougher.

Sharks captain Paul Gallen will miss the prelim against Melbourne. (Photo by Jason O’Brien/Getty Images)

Gallen joins Wade Graham on the injured list, while centre Josh Dugan has still only been named in the reserves list.

Should Dugan not play (likely replacing either Ricky Leutele or Edrick Lee), the Sharks have three international players sitting on the sidelines for a huge preliminary final, which will be a monumental task to overcome. More on that shortly.

The Sharks are otherwise unchanged, with Valentine Holmes, Matt Moylan and Chad Townsend holding the key if their forwards can keep things even in the middle third.

Key points

Can the Sharks overcome the injuries?
The injuries are going to hurt the Sharks big time. Should Dugan not play alongside the injured Gallen and Graham, they will be leaving a ridiculous 36 seasons and almost 700 games on the sideline.

While Dugan can probably be replaced, and the Sharks backline showed some good form against the Panthers last week, replacing Gallen and Graham will be on the difficult side.

With Luke Lewis also supposedly not 100 per cent, the challenge gets even tougher.

Against the Storm, the one thing you absolutely must do to stand a chance of winning is match them in the forwards. It’s how the Sharks won the 2016 grand final and beat them in Melbourne earlier this season.

Cronulla have a fearsome pack when it’s at full strength, but you lose the enforcer that is Gallen alongside the creativity and hard running of Graham, and alarm bells will be ringing for coach Shane Flanagan.

If they are to overcome the losses, Andrew Fifita is going to need to lead the charge. He is a potential X-Factor, but needs to be consistent for every minute he is on the field, not just produce the occasional big play this weekend.

Matt Prior has become an unsung hero in the Cronulla jersey and will also need to step up to the plate, while players like Kurt Capewell, Jayson Bukuya and Aaron Woods in particular will have the pressure on from the opening kick-off.

Can they overcome the injuries? I tend to suspect not, but if there’s a club you wouldn’t write off, it’s the Sharks.

Paul Gallen and the Sharks. (AAP Image/Michael Chambers)

Just how much of a benefit is the week off in a game like this?
As mentioned earlier, if there’s one thing you can virtually guarantee out of this game, it’s that it’ll be physical from the get-go.

Cronulla turn any game they play into a physical one up the middle third whether they are at full strength or not. If there’s a team who are better at controlling the pace and ruck speed, it’s the Storm though.

That being said, this is going to be a taxing 80 minutes and the Storm will be glad they have had a week off to rest up, overcome some niggles and get the human wrecking ball Nelson Asofa-Solomona back into the fold.

The week off could be the difference here during the last 20 minutes.

Billy Slater is still the best, but can Cronulla find a way to stop him?
It’s almost tough to think about an NRL competition without Billy the Kid.

After a long, prosperous career, he has one, maybe two games left and will be keen to go out on a high note, just as he finished last season by completing his comeback from injury with a premiership trophy over his head.

Before looking at the skills Slater actually brings though, it’s worth noting the Storm love a milestone or big game. This will be the final time Slater runs out in the Victorian capital – as if they needed another reason to be switched on.

Billy Slater. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Regardless of retirement or not, Slater is going out at the top of his game. He is still there on every support play, still safe as a house at the back, still able to communicate and direct his teams defensive line around the park and pop up dangerously in attack whenever and wherever it’s required.

Simply put, he is the best. There will be no one who comes close to the career Slater has had in the next few decades.

The champion fullback must be stopped by the Sharks if they want to win, and they managed it earlier this year with a good kicking game and rushed defence, but they are going to need plenty to go right against a man who will be refreshed having played just one game in four weeks.

Chad Townsend and Matt Moylan’s kicking game determines whether the Sharks stand a chance
Speaking of the Cronulla kicking game, and supposing their forwards can keep things level or nearly so, the only way the visitors are winning is if Moylan and Townsend play similar to what they were able to produce last week.

Townsend in particular was fantastic. His patience in attack, happiness to roll it in behind for a dropout and ensure it was being turned over in the right area of the field was brilliant.

While it might not be the most exhilirating rugby league, every successful team needs the director like the Sharks have in Townsend, who goes into what might be the biggest challenge of his life this weekend.

If Townsend is the director of the attack, Moylan is the flamboyant half who will need to pick his spots to create try-scoring opportunities.

Moylan played excellently against his old club last week, but some of his post-match comments, basically saying he was up for the game because it was against Penrith were a concern.

It doesn’t take much looking to know Moylan has played bad games this year. His first week finals effort against the Roosters wasn’t all that great either, and without Wade Graham helping on the outside, he could be in for a tough night.

Chad Townsend of the Sharks celebrates after kicking a field goal (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Prediction

In Melbourne, with the injuries Cronulla have and the experience the Storm have, it’s just impossible to tip against Craig Bellamy and his men to make a third straight grand final.

Bellamy is the best coach in the game and while he will play a role, the men in purple just have a too greater advantage on the field in this one.

I don’t suspect they are going to run away with it. Cronulla will make it physical as they do every time they hit the field, but it won’t be enough this time.

Storm by 4.

Game information

Date: Friday, September 21
Time (AEST): 7:40pm (AEST)
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne, Victoria
TV: Live, Fox League, Nine Network
Online: Live, Foxtel app, Foxtel now, 9Now, NRL Digital pass
Betting: Storm $1.35, Sharks $3.25

Don’t forget, here at The Roar, we will have live coverage and highlights of each and every NRL finals game.