McGregor vs Khabib billed as fight of the century

Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon on October 6 when he faces UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.

McGregor’s last appearance in the UFC saw him claim the lightweight title, against Eddie Alvarez, almost two years ago at UFC 205.

At that same event, Nurmagomedov made a return of his own from injury to dispatch Michael Johnson by third-round submission.

From then on, Nurmagomedov has claimed the lightweight division as his own, defeating Edson Barboza and Al Iaquinta to take the belt that had recently been vacated, due to McGregor’s venture into boxing.

Nurmagomedov boasts an undefeated 26-0 record, a rare feat in modern day MMA, and he is yet to lose a single round in his UFC career, highlighting his dominance.

This fight is a nod to the UFC of old. It’s the striker vs grappler matchup. Two fighters who represent the ultimate weakness to their opponent’s style, which gives the potential for this bout to be an all-time classic.

If McGregor is any chance to claim the lightweight strap back, he will need to keep this fight standing by any means necessary. McGregor excels as a counter striker; he must make his opponent respect his speed and power.

The Irishman has developed a reputation for growing tiresome in the latter rounds of a championship fight. However, two of those occasions came when facing Nate Diaz out of his natural weight class at 170 pounds. And the other was against Floyd Mayweather in a boxing match, which spanned longer than any UFC fight.

Regardless, if Nurmagomedov is successful in taking the fight to the ground on numerous occasions, it will be exhausting for McGregor to defend from the bottom, leading to his likely downfall.

Khabib Nurmagomedov (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

McGregor’s takedown defence goes underrated, having swatted several advances from Alvarez and Chad Mendes, who are both accomplished wrestlers. While Mendes managed four takedowns on seven attempts, Alvarez failed to secure a successful takedown on three attempts.

McGregor is capable of defending the initial onslaughts of a Nurmagomedov takedown, but it is the champion’s relentless pressure and chained attempts that lead to his successful takedowns.

Nurmagomedov is successful in 45 per cent of his takedown attempts, while attempting 28 takedowns in his last two appearances in the Octagon, highlighting the extreme pace he sets on his opponents.

While McGregor may be able to defend Nurmagomedov’s first advance, he will almost certainly be brought to the mat if Nurmagomedov can clinch with him up against the cage. The champion’s strength will then be on full display as he looks to pull McGregor off balance with a trip, dragging him to the ground.

Nurmagomedov won’t seek an early submission attempt, opting to hurt McGregor with a brutal showing of ground and pound as we have seen in his previous encounters where his opponents look defenceless from below.

While Nurmagomedov may not be able to get a hold of McGregor as easily in the early rounds where we see him at his best, the longer this fight drags on, the more it will tip in the champion’s favour.

Nurmagomedov was easily goaded into striking with his opponent in his last appearance at UFC 220, which saw Iaquinta willingly absorb a few jabs, seemingly strengthening Nurmagomedov’s striking confidence only for him to return a counter punch when the Russian pressed forward.

The champion thrives on bringing the pressure to his opponents, pressing forward shoot for a takedown or clinch when their back is against the cage. When on the other side of the equation, we see Nurmagomedov respond through desperation and aggression, which may play into McGregor’s hands.

One of the defining moments of McGregor’s career came when he was submitted by Nate Diaz at UFC 196. In that loss, he loaded up on high-volume striking, holding the belief that any foe would fall to his left hand after he defeated Jose Aldo with just one punch.

He came back to defeat Diaz, demonstrating a new tactical game plan to chop away at his opponent’s legs. Then at UFC 205, we saw McGregor at his peak, patiently luring Alvarez into his range, while thwarting his takedown attempts.

His confidence and over-reliance on the left hand was his downfall. The loss to Diaz served McGregor better in the long run. Nurmagomedov however, has not experienced failure in his UFC career. How will the champion respond if McGregor gets the better of him in the first round?

Nurmagomedov has looked dominant against admirable opponents like Johnson, Barboza and Rafael Dos Anjos. But McGregor’s resume of wins against Alvarez, Aldo, Diaz, and Mendes sets him as the more experienced championship-level fighter.

Verdict
Nurmagomedov will show respect for McGregor’s striking ability but fall victim to his own reckless aggression, being lured into a trap where he is cracked and wobbled, causing panic.

We are yet to see Nurmagomedov’s chin be truly tested, as he absorbs the 7th-fewest strikes per minute in lightweight history. We have seen him take some damage, but he manages to power through unbothered.

McGregor seems to come into every UFC bout as the underdog, but then proceeds to make his opponent look almost amateurish. McGregor’s ability to control the centre of the Octagon will prove too much for Nurmagomedov, who will be baited into an exchange by the far superior striker in McGregor.

McGregor by KO within two rounds.