VRC Derby preview and tips

The VRC Derby is one of the oldest races on the Australian calendar, steeped in history going back all the way to 1855. Phar Lap won the race in 1929.

It used to be thought that Derby winners didn’t often scale great heights in their subsequent racing careers, but the last decade has seen many of them have an impact beyond their three-year-old spring.

There are three main lead-up races to the VRC Derby, and excluding the emergencies, all 16 runners this year have had their final run in one of them. The Caulfield Classic (formerly the Norman Robinson) and AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley are the strongest lead-up form, while the C-graders use the Geelong Classic but can sometimes pop up into the placings.

Thinkin’ Big is the ruling favourite, and deservedly so after taking out the Caulfield Classic by three lengths with a further two lengths back to third. It was a dominant front-running performance from a strong stayer with a bright future.

Thinkin’ Big controlled the race from the front under his own steam, but his sectionals and splits coming home show that he was clearly the superior horse in the field. No horse ran a quicker last 200m than him, even though every one of them had their chance to.

The scary prospect is this was on soft ground, and there is reason to think he will be better on top of the ground.

Trainer Gai Waterhouse has been bullish about his Melbourne Cup chances for months, and it’s almost unheard of these days for a Derby-winning three-year-old to back up into the big race. Staying the 2500m of a Derby trip won’t be an issue.

Trainer Gai Waterhouse (AAP Image/Ellen Smith)

Second, third, fourth and sixth from the Caulfield Classic are also engaged, in the form of Chapada, Sikorsky, Visao and Extra Brut respectively.

Extra Brut and Sikorsky ran the quinella in the UCI Stakes beforehand, and that form has proven to be lengths behind what Thinkin’ Big has produced. Chapada might be a handy prospect and genuine place chance after clearly being the second best run in the race. Visao was also well behind Thinkin’ Big in the Spring Champion up in Sydney.

Looking at the Vase, it was taken out by Stars of Carrum at bolters odds in the narrowest of finishes from Savoie, with favourite Aramayo in third.

Once again on Cox Plate day, the rail was the place to be and those closer to it were clearly advantaged. Stars of Carrum was midfield on the rail and only had to go around one horse on his way to victory. It was still a strong run.

Savoie raced on the speed and tried to steal the race by accelerating around the home turn and finding that rail in the run to the line.

The best runs of the Vase were Aramayo and Mickey Blue Eyes, who were the widest runners making ground from the tail, while Savvy Oak was solid but cut more corners. Aramayo is second-favourite in the Derby, not just off his Vase run but also the fact he beat Thinkin’ Big home in the Group 1 Spring Champion the start previous.

Mickey Blue Eyes is three times the odds of Aramayo, but their odds should be closer together based off the Vase runs. In the seven furlongs from the 1400m to the finishing post, Mickey Blue Eyes recorded quicker 200m splits in each one. If he settles in front of Aramayo, we’re entitled to think he will beat that home.

The Geelong Classic once again shapes as the race that won’t provide the winner, given the shortest horse from that race is $17 here. The advantage of it is that it’s over 2200m, so is closer to the 2500m of the Derby than the other lead-ups.

Home Ground won the Geelong Classic, but had been well handled by Aramayo and Thinkin’ Big in the Spring Champion. Farooq, second, couldn’t make an impression on Extra Brut and Savoie in the UCI. There is nothing in any formlines from the race to suggest they can threaten the more favoured runners.

Thinkin’ Big (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Thinkin’ Big will likely want to lead but might be happy to hand it up to Savoie crossing from a wide barrier. Sikorsky has a kinder draw and will put himself in the race, and Chapada will be somewhere thereabouts too. The latter two couldn’t beat Thinkin’ Big last start when conceding him the lead, so might think they have to take it up themselves and make the favourite run them down.

The 2500m start at Flemington does not allow a great deal of time before the first sweeping bend, so it will be a tactical affair early as each jockey looks to take their position. Whichever way the race gets cut down, Thinkin’ Big will take over at the top of the straight and simply run away from his rivals.

Selections: 1.Thinkin’ Big 2.Mickey Blue Eyes 3.Aramayo 4.Chapada