Reading Roar articles and other media after last week’s Australia vs Italy match I gained the impression that the Wallabies played very unconvincingly – the glass was half empty, not half full.
It sounded as though the defence had been solid but the attack very ordinary, apart from Samu Kerevi.
Spiro Zavos thought Italy frequently outplayed the Wallabies for long periods of time and that the backs played like headless chooks, a view echoed by Jamie Pandaram and Wayne Smith in the Australian.
I thought it would therefore be interesting to watch the replay in forensic mode, breaking down each passage of play to note when either team made a significant gain in territory or caused a turnover and when they made significant errors. I know – get a life! But it can be instructive to look at the evidence in detail rather than go with impressions made on the spur of the moment at the end of the game.
Had the sports writers been fair to the Aussies, or had preconceptions about the faults of the team conceivably affected the picture they painted?
The results for me were quite different from the thrust of commentary. Australia and the backs in particular made numerous line breaks. Italy, by contrast, made hardly any breaks and hardly ever got over the gain line. Australia was quite dominant apart from the moment just before Scott Sio got sent off and then for a few scrums after that.
The evidence? From kick-off until just after the 50th minute I recorded 16 separate occasions on which the Australian backs made five metres or more – usually more – or gained a penalty because a player was held without the ball or an Italian deliberately knocked on to spoil an overlap. It seems quite unfair to accuse them of going mindlessly sideways when they were regularly gaining substantial ground.
In between, the forwards’ runs regularly made a couple of metres over the gain line, drawing in the Italians.
By contrast, I counted only four breaks the Italians made in the entire game, the most notable being Jayden ‘Giuseppe’ Heyward’s break in the sixth minute, which almost led to a try to Braam ‘Benito’ Steyn in the corner. I didn’t count halfback Tito Tibaldi’s intercept – unfairly ruled offside – or the Italians’ only try, which was just a bit of scavenging from a loose Bernard Foley pass.
There wasn’t much Australian forward momentum between the 50th and 70th minutes due to a couple of bad errors culminating in Sio’s yellow card followed by some bad scrums when Jermaine Ainsley took over. However, apart from one break in the 63rd minute after Marika Koroibete missed a couple of tackles, the Italians hardly offered a serious threat in that period. After Sio came back on, Australia got back on the front foot, made three or four breaks and scored the final try.
So who or what were the main culprits in terms of Australian errors and turnovers?
(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Handling
Israel Folau tried two unnecessary miracle passes at the end of backline breaks and dropped two balls. Foley and Michael Hooper also made a couple of bad passes each and Adam Coleman, Will Genia and Jakes Gordon were guilty of fumbling.
Four scrum penalties
Although your guess is as good as mine whether they were really merited.
Giving away penalties or turning the ball over in the ruck seven times
Coleman and Jack Dempsey twice each, plus Izack Rodda, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Gordon once apiece, though not always entirely their fault.
Indifferent kicks
For example, one into touch on the full by Matt Toomua, and Foley and Samu Kerevi kicking grubbers straight into the legs of opponents.
What about Toomua at No.10? I counted that of the 16 backline breaks mentioned above, Toomua had a pass in 14 of them, usually as first receiver. While sometimes he only shuffled the ball on, in several moves he threw passes that were incisive and instrumental in creating space. He never threw a bad pass nor did he fumble.
Looking at the replay, it was hard to agree with Spiro’s assessment that Toomua mostly stood deep, often 10 metres behind the gain line. Most of the time he took the ball five metres back and often quite flat. However, Toomua rarely attacked the gain line, as Spiro noted – but did he really need to so when the other backs and forwards were making so many yards? In the kicking department Toomua was very solid apart from the two errors mentioned above.
(Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Hooper would be one candidate for best on field, winning two ruck turnovers and killing a maul and tackling tirelessly, flying out of the line and knocking the Italians back five metres a few times. But Simon Poidevin’s claim that all the other forwards should have been ashamed of themselves is ridiculous – Rodda with his lineout work, strong hit-ups and defence was at least as valuable as Hooper, and as always David Pocock was a strong contributor until he came off, with lots of effective hit-ups and tackles and a couple of turnovers. In the backs I’d put Kerevi and Toomua ahead of Adam Ashley-Cooper.
At the end of the tape it seemed the Australian performance deserved a glass-half-full rating. Both defence and attack were solid. The main problems were scrum, ruck discipline and handling – obviously a huge contrast to teams like Ireland.
There was evidence to support Brett McKay’s suggestion that a 10-12-13 of Toomua-Kerevi-Ashley-Cooper could work. That doesn’t mean there aren’t deeper problems or that we should optimistic about the England game.
The exercise illustrated to me that some judgements made after watching a game non-stop don’t always hold water when you go back and break things down play by play. All of us can be prone to confirmation bias. In this case, the ruling narrative that Australia is playing poorly and being coached badly and that the backs are a mess may have led people to overlook some of the good bits.
BK
Roar Rookie
So frustrating that Cheika is unaccountable for this teams poor results. His game plans are childish and his selections spoiled by favoritism. Best backline for me till Hodge returns is Gordon, Toomua, Kerevi and Folau at 13. Koroibete, Maddock on the wings DHP at the back Beale on the bench for the last 20 I think England if they played like they did vs the AB’s will win by 30, but I will still get up and watch
Ideasman
Roar Rookie
The Italian halfback was offside. He was beyond the 15 metre line before the line out finished. He therefore needed to be 10 meters back from the line of touch with the other backs. He was therefore 8 metres offside at the time Gordon threw the pass. An easy decision for the referee and 100% correct.
Simoc
Guest
Nice article. The guys are playing ok but without passion or belief against Italy. I think that will change against England. Hopefully, Falau will be fullback, Foley at 10 and Toomua and Beale in the midfield. Foley doesn't appear to read the game well but he may be following coaching instructions rather than instinct. Whatever he is a long way better than the other options. Hooper seems to be to small for the role; reminds me of Phil Waugh; they just get tossed out of the way when the going gets tough. As long as they beat England, nothing else matters.
Realist271
Guest
I feel the same Bill.
Realist271
Guest
Beale only played well in the first game in the Irish series. Was terrible in the other 2
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
Thanks for having the courage and passion to submit an article and also for trying to stay positive. I am hoping that in reality we end up with Foley/Toomua/Kerevi but I think we will see a muddle. Foley struggles not to play 10 even when wearing 12. I have a lot of time for Foley, despite his limitations but his form has not been good lately. It is hard not to feel that Toomua/Kerevi/AAC might have been the best option. To be honest, this side is knackered and until their is a coaching clean out I can't see much change.
Hoy
Roar Guru
His fall in form from the Irish games is really quite alarming... I mean Foley is playing probably as poorly or as good as he always has... but Beale has dropped right off...
Bill
Guest
Sorry we were awful, having finally been able to watch the Ireland vs NZ game last night, I can only conclude the gap between Australia and the tier 1 sides as massive - the level of skill, fitness, kicking, tackling was light years ahead of the dismal effort (which bordered on unwatchable) against lowly Italy. We’re done. I’m an Aussie and can’t stand the idea of England winning anything, but this weekend I’ll make an exception, if our players and coach can’t summon the effort to play to their potential, I can only hope for a historical flogging of epic proportions. Something has to happen to jolt RA into action. These couches, administrators and players are causing untold damage to the game. Enough is enough. Bill
Hoy
Roar Guru
The main issue was the glass half full was against Italy, which means when you translate it, it is about three quarters empty. I still think we avoided contact far too much. The backs can't help themselves but throw wide early, and every game, it ends the same... some fool throws a rubbish pass at the death... Folau has been very guilty of being blinded by attempting some stupid miracle offload everytime someone lays a hand on him... how he thought they were good ideas... I'll never know. One in the first half, he got through one bloke, and should have passed straight away, however he held on, and held on, until just after his body hit the ground, then decided to throw the ball forwards... I just can't work out why he decided to choose that time to think offloading was a good idea... Look, Australia has long suffered from not winning their moments. They need to win moments to win games, and this team simply cannot win moments... They need a huge coaching overhaul to enforce what is important in rugby... Choosing width early is not smart, and never has been... but we keep attempting it, if only to prove the above is accurate I guess. But as I said, the team seems to actively avoid contact... they seem worried about trying to dominate contact... that doesn't mean they should be finding shoulders, but look at Kerevi and Tupou on the weekend. The only two who showed a head down, forwards, legs driving thought process... and look who are best runners were? Kerevi and Tupou.
freddieeffer
Guest
Jon, did you watch the Ireland v AB game? Can you compare what the Wallabies delivered v Italy against either Ireland or the AB's last weekend - the skills, execution, strategies and intelligence, attack and defence, pace and intensity for 80 minutes, workload..... In my assessment, you cannot compare. The Wallabies played a similar but better game than the 14th ranked side, and they are a galaxy away from where Ireland and the AB's are currently at. Many fans believe the Wallabies could play at a much higher standard and achieve results more commensurate with their capacity with better coaching, appropriate selection (not playing favourites or players out of natural position) and realistic gameplan. If you're a glass half full guy, that's great, but that's not what I've been seeing 2016-2018.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Foley will get rolled. He was useless against Italy. Have you not read the reports of some very smart Rugby Analysists? Foley is not a No. 12. Seems that you enjoy "revolving chairs on the deck of the Titanic". All out of position, although Kerevi can handle 13 but he is a better 12.
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
Maxxlord - Beale is finished as a No. 12 and he is useless as a No. 10. Sorry, but I do not see the advantage of Beale at all based on 2018 form!!
sittingbison
Roar Pro
You're a glass half full/rose tinted glasses guy Jon, which is fine. Just remember Italy are ranked 14th, and are whipping boys for tier one teams. Looking at that performance demonstrates just how far the Wallabies have fallen, with half the team out of position, poor selections, no discernible attack methodology, no prior analysis of the opposition to exploit their deficiency, a malfunctioning scrum and line out, poor handling, the list goes on. The attack wasn't good, they were kept scoreless for 30 mins in both halves.
sittingbison
Roar Pro
All three out of position (all the backs are except Sanchez) Foley at 12 ruins Toomua operating at 10, and offers a turnstile in defence for the English to exploit Foley should have joined Beale in the stands.
Phil
Guest
I'm with you,Jon.Too many doom and gloom merchants on this site and I was nearly not going to even look at it today,knowing full well what the reactions to selections for the England game are.Thank you for something a little positive but still highlighting our weak areas.
Jon Richardson
Roar Pro
Well many of us remember a time when we would expect to win by 50. But no one beat them by that much in the Six Nations this year. Australia conceded fewer points against them than any of the Six Nations. Australia’s margin was better than that of France or Scotland, who aren’t poor teams at the moment. “Crap” doesn’t stand up as an assessment, given that Australia was dominant for three quarters of the game. It’s defence and attack were good, while scrum, discipline and occasional handling were poor.
Second rower
Guest
The difference is Japan has positive momentum, lower expectations than the wallabies, and japan plays a lot less to lose. The wallabies play with the weight of the world on their shoulders and it shows. The constant reminder of past success and past glory gives Australia a false sense of self and in turn makes them set the bar incredibly high. The truth is the wallabies are mismanaged talent owned by a organisation with its head up its rear end; The Aussie psyche is to blame too, most of these players were brown nosed private school boys who can’t dig deep when it counts. They work hard but okay dumb
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Mate it was against Italy. They should beat a side like that by 50 points. I’m sorry but they were crap
Samlaurence26
Roar Rookie
How do you feel about the Toomua-Foley-Kerevi midfield Cheika has pulled out for the Eng game...
Chaz
Guest
Nice article and I think Saturday may be closer than expected. Based on the last five encounters and rankings, this should be a comfortable England win, but I'm strangely nervous- if you want a glass half empty viewpoint, look at the first 55 minutes of England Japan, when the hosts were dreadful.