I must acknowledge Bluesfan, who germinated these thoughts, and apologise to Wilbur Smith – this is no story of the courage of a single person in the face of oppression and adversity, or the conversion of a drop of water into a waterfall – this is a story of the numbers, plain and simple.
It struck me that the single redeeming feature, the tangible positive of a miserable 2018, is that the Wallaby squad has learned numbers.
This reminded me of a diversionary and, until now, partially-wasted education in fractal mathematics: geo-spatial data exhibited as never-ending infinitely complex patterns that are recursive.
Computer geeks will know this, but recursion is the breaking down of a thing into smaller parts of itself so that similar patters emerge but on increasingly smaller, infinite scale.
Recursion is symmetrical which means that when magnified or dissected, each part will look basically like a part of the whole object.
So the process of fractal analytics is driven by recursion in an endless loop which can enter four states either;
After very little though, the Wallaby team are fractals – each a smaller representation of the other, the whole represents the parts, trending between zero and infinity, simultaneously in a number of states and no discernible pattern.
So much for the numbers, and, this is a serious question: what has reduced the once-fluid natural character of these once-respected athletes into the mess they are today?
Commentators bemoan low basic skills. For sure, they all have or had the skills, so how do you unlearn a skill? How do you unlearn to pass? Why is Beale 2014 distinct to Beale 2018?
My hypothesis is that the baffling game-plays and bewildering defensive structures (unique in world rugby) rotation, mismatched couplings, selection out of position, setting unrealistic expectations, failure to face facts, narrow dictated game-plans and many other factors (some of which are listed below) have collectively, over time, sapped the life out of the players.
They appear to me to have lost confidence in themselves – mired in a morass of silly unnecessary confusion and complexity. And, the numbers.
Dismantling a persons’ self-confidence, destroying motivation, removing the innate and replacing with the inanimate takes time. Michael Cheika, the coaches, and Rugby Australia have achieved this.
To my mind the collective analysis reveals;
In putting a practical spin on the numbers, I envisage this pre-game scenario.
15 will play 14, and 14 will play 15, but, in defence, 14 at 15 so the 15 can play 12 on attack – except counter-attack, when the 12, who is a 10, is filling in for 10 who is a 12, except for set pieces, but not lineouts.
9 will play a defensive role, except in attack.
At the 23 minute mark, 4, 3, 1, and 6 head right.
14, the right wing, will play left wing on kick off but right wing for a 22. But 14 must move to left wing when 11, who is the left wing, is chasing a re-start from the 22.
7 will play at 8, except when 7 is playing 11 or 14, which will be between minutes 23 and 32, and when 15, who is playing 14 is actually playing 12.
On defensive set pieces, 10 will move to 12, and 7 to 13, except for line-outs.
On attacking line-outs, 7 will move to 13 in anticipation of 2, who’s a 23, gifting the ball to the opposition, thereby cunningly providing the opportunity to counter-attack, in which case 14’s skills come in to play, once he has retreated from the 12 position.
Yes, it’s a fractal mess all right.
Leadership is a learned skill – broadly, what we have across RA, and an abject failure of leadership. And strategy. And execution.
Eelboy
Guest
Not me - as long as it is used sparingly. I do, however, have a strong aversion to feminine rhyme. It just grates hearing all these rappers striving to rhyme on multiple syllables with each & every line.
Lano
Roar Guru
you are too kind..... McKenzie manage to inspire those rat-bag youngsters in the Reds back in 07/ 08 (I think it was) - quite the opposite has occurred in the past few years.
Bobby
Guest
This is the best, most thoughtful paper on the total issue. Unbelievably insightful, honest and constructively critical of the game we all live Thank you !
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Lano, This is beautiful! Poetry! Even Harry and Nick have to be jealous (healthy jealousy) of your fascinating intro. Fractal into rugby! I am keen in understanding algorithms and how they actually work. It is always in the build that problemas arise. AI is built on algorithms. Who sets the goals? So, paraphrasing your fractal world, maybe there is a wrong algorithm "dictating" the way the game is played by the WB. It results in an endless loop of defeat.
tREDgic
Guest
Try learning a tonal language such as mandarin when you naturally runyoursyllablestogether and an upward inflection at the end eh?
Lano
Roar Guru
That’s an interesting observation. Really!! Have you noticed a large portion of the population end a sentence with an accentuation that implies it’s a question not a statement? Some sociologists explain it’s the convict past in our DNA that drives us to seek permission for every underlying thought - similar to an inmate seeking permission from a guard? “I think it’s going t rain” with a lilt in the voice inclining higher as the sentence ends suggestion it’s a question, not a statement or observation. Listen next time! Seriously!
Lano
Roar Guru
Thanks Freddie. A fine addition to the subject.
freddieeffer
Roar Rookie
Great read Lano. Spot on analysis. I thought I'd throw a few thoughts in on leadership, as this is the core problem that all other rugby ills and problems stem from. To take up where you finished "Leadership is a learned skill – broadly, what we have across RA, and an abject failure of leadership. And strategy. And execution." While it's true that leadership concepts, content and skills can be taught and learned, it certainly helps and is even better if a person has the inherent capability to be a leader. But there's more to it than that. A person not only needs inherent capability, but it is preferable if they can undergo some formative personal development and training in leadership theory and practice. There's a range of ways this can happen, from informal to formal. Another factor is the need to have served appropriate junior leadership or deputy leadership roles as well as having benefited from some quality mentoring to become functionally ready to be an effective leader, after proving competence and effectiveness at lower levels of leadership. But there's even more to it than that. Just because someone has the technical knowledge or skills to fulfil the duties of the leader (eg CEO); this is of itself inadequate. And just because a person holds the position of leader, this does not mean that others automatically follow, or can fall right in behind them and have absolute faith and conviction in them to follow them as they lead. Effective leaders are also authentic leaders. The concept of authenticity centres on a person's capacity to remain true to themselves; meaning their behaviours or actions are in alignment with the leader’s (or organisations) stated core values and beliefs. They have a well-developed set of values and principles and have the strength and discipline of mind to remain authentic and true to their core values and beliefs in the heat of battle without succumbing to egoistic thinking and behaviour in their leadership practices. Authentic leaders have an ethical framework and abhor amorality where there's shifting, flexible and/or inconsistent standards or principles. They do not tolerate indifference to questions of right or wrong, and for them, no question is either too hard or too inconvenient to give an honest reply to. In summary, most facets of rugby in Australia have been severely impacted for many years due to leadership that was the wrong type, as well as being significantly flawed and inadequate. What we need is rugby leaders with the above capacities, where the leaders have a well developed ethical framework in place which totally informs their thinking, decision-making and behaviour. This in turn allows them to demonstrate core traits such as integrity, trustworthiness and honesty as standard daily practice. The core problem of inadequate leadership rests squarely within various rugby governing bodies. These bodies need to be made up of good people who are effective leaders. Just because someone is a corporate high-flyer does not mean they have the inherent qualities outlined above; in fact, it is quite probable they are the last person who should be sitting at the boardroom table. It is the cancer of political operational thinking and behaviour that has lead us into the rugby abyss we are currently in. It's the mates club and fiefdoms that control governance, and this somehow, has to be broken and these people removed. The box has to be tipped upside down and rebuild with the new and fresh. There's a lot more to it, but the above may offer a few additional insights to the range of fixes required to get rugby back onto a sustainable and prosperous path.
Crash Ball2
Guest
Don’t resort to Any other code Monsta. Your average Magpie or Eels supporter won’t appreciate ambitious abstract alliteration.
Monsta
Roar Rookie
Lano, great read mate. I would have found it hilarious and entertaining if it weren't true. Factual fractals and fractures foreshadow future failures. To be honest I'm ready to quit and follow AFL or League or worse, don the black. I cannot see the necessary changes being made and the heavenly game being marginalized into oblivion. Damn them, the old boys, the self serving ex 3rd fifteens and the incompetents ruining our game.
Jeremy Davies
Guest
As a Pom who’s lived here since 2007, loves the place and the people but still supports England (of course) I’ve got to be delicate with this! Here goes! I was completely taken by surprise when I realised - after living here for a year or so - that Aussies take rules VERY seriously. So seriously that they actually obey them! In England rules are generally taken as a bit of guidance. It may say “Don’t Cross” - but there are no cars in sight, so cross the damned road! Speed signs are sort of the same thing; don’t go mad, but a few kph over the limit is OK - and the Police often use their judgement, with a finger wag and a warning. Not here! Rules really are rules, and there are a lot of them - and they are growing by the day. And rule-breakers are seen as being a little bit “anti-social”. Maybe your Wallaby boys need to “nod and smile” at all the game plans that are being laid down for them - then break a few “rules” and play like they always used to play. Be good to see :)
Lano
Roar Guru
True - so serious this is a Matter of State. Nothing short of the Governor General's intervention will suffice.
Lano
Roar Guru
Nice to have your face back Sheek !! For several months you have been replaced by an emoji, a highly unsatisfactory state of affairs.
Lano
Roar Guru
Like you, I suspect, we're all exhausted by this and have no tricks left! And, hey, thanks - very complimentary but entirely unwarranted.
jeznez
Roar Guru
So much for the master motivator. Great article Lano.
Lano
Roar Guru
Fractured and fractal !
Lano
Roar Guru
Thanks H - never confuse looks with anything!!
Lano
Roar Guru
True Harry. Referencing your piece today, have a bloody nose and two cracked ribs and we haven't entered the ring yet!!
Lano
Roar Guru
Agree Pete First you lose confidence Then you lose competence
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Lano: A great subtle, short and on point read. Well done! Almost (but not quite) too close to serious to not be funny. In fact, if we could not laugh about the madness of the situation some of us would be up to no good!