Why Valentine Holmes will make an NFL roster

@ 'That Guy': - you have very good and valid points; the majority - I agree with; - except for two: 1/Valentine is too small to play in the NFL? Are you for 'f**k*n' real? - LOL! Though you pointed out Sproles - with trunk legs - was surprised you failed to also mention the two "NFL Hobbit" Stars' - Trindon Holliday and Cole Beasley - nowhere near - the height or weight of Val! Others include Lamarcus Joyner, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Tommylee Lewis, Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate - to name a few! 2/If Val's very first 40 yard dash time of 4.6 secs - is not good enough; - then why are QB - Tom Brady (5.24 secs) multiple MVP and Superbowl Champion, or RB - Mike Tolbert (4.75 secs), RB - Le'Veon Bell (same time as Val) and CB - Josh Norman (4.66 secs) - not only NFL 53 man rostered/regularly playing for - the Patriots, Panthers, Steelers and Redskins; - but also are Pro-Bowl Players'? Aren't Pro-Bowl Players' meant to be 'the best of the best' - for their position; - so why are they so slow? Other NFL RB/WR "Snails'" include: - RB Vick Ballard (4.65 secs), Pro-Bowl WR - Jarvis Landry (4.77 secs), Pro-Bowl RB - Alfred Morris (4.67 secs), Superbowl Champ/Pro-Bowl WR - Anquan Boldin (4.71 secs), RB - Montee Ball (4.66 secs), Superbowl Champ/Pro-Bowl Legend RB - Emmitt Smith (4.7 secs) and the best for last NFL GREAT/LEGEND - 3x Super Bowl Champion and 13x Pro-Bowl WR Jerry Rice (a 4.71 secs!!!!!!! - WHAT!!!!!)! Where me, you, realists/pessimists and maybe Val can all be in agreement - is that Val has - a HUGE challenge ahead! Where Val has a better chance than Jarryd Hayne - is due to Val being coached by legendary (Emmitt Smith/Jerry Rice's) RB/WR Former NFL/IMG Pathway Coach Larry Kirksey. Don't believe - someone with the calibre of Larry Kirksey - would bother wasting his time - on raw talent like Val - unless Larry saw something in/about him!

You're obviously a league pundit who has very little idea about the realities of the NFL and American football in general. The problem with individuals such as yourself, the OP & sporting journalists in Australia is that you have little practical knowledge or experience to be qualified to present an educated opinion on American football and how a professional player would go at converting from rugby/league to the NFL. This was demonstrated when your God's gift to American football Hayne dropped the ball literally (when it mattered) and professionally during his stint with the 49ers when it was shown that athleticism and improvisation are no substitutes for years of training and development at the collegiate & professional level. And this despite all of the hype and over-promotion of the media. I am a high school level assistant coach for a gridiron program in Australia, with 10 years of previous collegiate level playing experience. I've seen quite a few players with different football code backgrounds go through the leagues in Australia & into foreign leagues (not the NFL), the NCAA & NFL with mixed results. Now let's break your argument. You say "Jarryd Hayne made a bigger impact than you give him credit for. Had he been younger and more committed (he gave up as much as he was dropped) then he would have established himself and probably changed your game, not least by bursting the colossal bubble that your sport exists in and making you realise that there is some phenomenal talent out there to which the US is practically impervious. Lots of it……" - despite all the media hype & a positive pre-season which came down to a couple of lucky plays, Hayne left the NFL with the impact that he didn't have what it took and gave up before continuing to put in the work & develop. The stats prove his ability at the game the one year he was there - a low running average (3.1 yds/carry - 4.0 is the standard because by the law of averages a coach wants their running back to be able to pick up a 1st down on the 1st 3 downs), low reception average (4.5yds/catch when 7-7.5 ypc is desired), 3 fumbles (1 lost) & ordinary punt return average (9.5yds/punt return when you want 15yds/PR). As you say "Had he been younger & more committed (he gave up as much as he was dropped) then he would have established himself...." - but we will never know because he left the game before he could make an impact, and it really is a BS excuse that is an insult to anyone who made the commitment in HS and went through the proper development of collegiate level football (which is what he really should have gone & done). I'm going to hang onto this point later in the post. The only real impact he left was with the media. Then you say "What Hayne highlighted is actually a fault with your game produced by the draft and total lack of minor leagues. The US has so much talent you could easily furnish 4 or 5 professional and semi professional leagues (easily!) all playing a very high standard of football not far off the NFL with the NFL at the pinnacle. You have no such thing." - actually, there has been developmental leagues such as NFL Europa, XFL, Arena Football (American, Indoor, Developmental, and the now called the National Arena), & the CFL which has been going strong since the 1950s. What about the aforementioned NFL International Pathway Program? And the fact that there was an International Combine held in Australia/NZ/Pac. Islands recently? So are you still sure there's this "...colossal bubble that your sport exists in and making you realise that there is some phenomenal talent out there to which the US is practically impervious". So really, wake up - SMH. Then you say "Mental toughness, ability under pressure, technique under pressure and decision making are equally important. Frankly, I see a lack of those throughout the NFL." - you mean like Hayne's performance fumbling 3 (3!) punt returns? If you're talking "Mental toughness, ability under pressure, technique under pressure and decision making" as lacking in the NFL - & i think here you're trying to say that rugby league players have more of those qualities - that's damn laughable. NFL players are not perfect by far, but how many weeks (off the field) go by without seeing "elite" NRL players getting in trouble with the law, or (on the field) in one the most basic codes of football the NRL's elite players still can't set a scrum or play the ball properly? And back to "Had he been younger & more committed (he gave up as much as he was dropped) then he would have established himself...." - where was Hayne's "Mental toughness"? Mental toughness is Tom Brady bringing the Pats back from a deficit of 25 to win a Superbowl. It is JJ Watt coming back from back surgery & having 16 sacks on the season. An over-the-hill Adrian Peterson coming back from multiple injuries and the 30yr threshold for RBs & became one of five NFL players in history aged 33 or older to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. Pick any top 10 receiver who's caught a ball this season whilst keeping their tippy-toes in-bounds. The Colts O-line who went from last to 3rd from 2017 to 2018 in QB sacks. And then you go to say "There is no culture of development and no culture of learning your trade in your game. Players come in, make a splash, get injured, lose form, make a mistake, get discarded and unlike almost any other professional sport league there’s nowhere just a bit lower with a bit less pressure where they can go and develop, find form and confidence then try to return. The consequence is that you have a very young league full of players who play like young guys who’ve only been doing the job a year and quite possibly won't be doing it next year." - Here I will just point you back up to the handful of examples demonstrated above that disprove your comment. Players in the NFL once they're injured don't need to rehab in a minor league-type scenario (like the NRL's reserve grade) to work their way back in to a team - all teams have world class rehab programs and the players are kept around the NFL team for morale (& despite that it's in their contract to be a part of team activities). You train like you play & a NFL class athlete is not going to play/train with players of a lower grade/level of skill when they can just do it against 2nd & 3rd string units at practice - that's what the practice squad is for. It's why Hayne was demoted/cut during his year & brought back to train & develop with the practice squad later in the season. Then - "If you can’t turn someone like Jarryd Hayne into a regular pro or if you waste and discard a talent like Valentine Holmes, who’s only 23, then that will not reflect on them but on your game and its total lack of development structure." - that is absolutely laughable. It's not the 49ers nor the NFL's fault Hayne fumbled 3 punts, ran the ball poorly, couldn't protected his QB, ran poor routes - he was given every inch of an opportunity (& then some - the Patriots that same season cut their punt returner after 1 fumble)) and his coaching was slowed down for him, and he was brought back to the team after being cut. Remember Hayne was the one who walked out on the 49ers. But hey, don't blame the player.... Again the notion that rugby league players are God's gift to the football world. SMH. Then you go to say - "If enough of these rugby guys try to get into your league, then inevitably one of them will break through." - if they go learn, play & develop at the collegiate level of American football, sure, I reckon it's doable. But until then, you're going to have to be a physical marvel and be at a ripe young age ala Jordan Mailata, to have any shot. "...I think if that happens it might finally burst the bubble in your game which places no value on development and which means the standard of athlete you have on paper according to the combine doesn’t actually match the reality on the field….." - you do know the whole collegiate American Football system in the US is all about development right? And that the issue of the gamble & risk/reward system of the main Draft Combine has little to do with international development because the bulk of prospects come from the NCAA? And lastly, that there are mini-combines held around the US which include players from the NFL International Pathway Program (which last year included Mailata)?

You're obviously an NFL pundit. I'm going to give you a different perspective. Jarryd Hayne made a bigger impact than you give him credit for. Had he been younger and more committed (he gave up as much as he was dropped) then he would have established himself and probably changed your game, not least by bursting the colossal bubble that your sport exists in and making you realise that there is some phenomenal talent out there to which the US is practically impervious. Lots of it...... Jarryd Hayne was a great player at the tail end of his career, but I can tell you that the top teams in rugby have all got players on his level or above. Why wouldn't they? Think, for example, of the impact Polynesians have had on college and pro football and then think that there are 1 million Polynesians in rugby crazed New Zealand alone. How many Troy Polamalus do you think could be out there? What Hayne highlighted is actually a fault with your game produced by the draft and total lack of minor leagues. The US has so much talent you could easily furnish 4 or 5 professional and semi professional leagues (easily!) all playing a very high standard of football not far off the NFL with the NFL at the pinnacle. You have no such thing. As an outsider looking in I see this manifesting itself in ways you may not perceive. We take it for granted that everyone in the league weighs 300 lbs, can run 40 yards in 4 seconds and jump 40 inches, but that isn't the only thing which makes an athlete. Mental toughness, ability under pressure, technique under pressure and decision making are equally important. Frankly, I see a lack of those throughout the NFL. That could be because they are not prioritised but I think, above all, I think it's because these abilities develop at different speeds in different players and the league is flushed with incomers from the draft every single season. The average NFL career is between 3 and 6 years depending who you ask. That is...... not very long. The average rugby career is 7 seasons and they play a hell of a lot more - twice as many games every season as an NFL player, so double the experience. There is no culture of development and no culture of learning your trade in your game. Players come in, make a splash, get injured, lose form, make a mistake, get discarded and unlike almost any other professional sport league there's nowhere just a bit lower with a bit less pressure where they can go and develop, find form and confidence then try to return. The consequence is that you have a very young league full of players who play like young guys who've only been doing the job a year and quite possibly won t be doing it next year. If you can't turn someone like Jarryd Hayne into a regular pro or if you waste and discard a talent like Valentine Holmes, who's only 23, then that will not reflect on them but on your game and its total lack of development structure. If enough of these rugby guys try to get into your league, then inevitably one of them will break through. I think if that happens it might finally burst the bubble in your game which places no value on development and which means the standard of athlete you have on paper according to the combine doesn't actually match the reality on the field.....

Agreed! That post should be the article!

What That Guy said^ Excellent post

Valentine Holmes will be on an NFL roster but not for the reasons that this author suggested. In fact I'm not really sure that the author has ever seen a game of football (the kind with helmets and shoulder pads) given the number of ludicrous claims in this article. "Players in the NFL are not used to the quick footwork that rugby league players like Holmes possess." Simply laughable. "Holmes will be a force that no defences have ever seen or prepared for." Poe's Law applies here. Is the author actually trolling us? Please watch a video of Barry Sanders, Devin Hester, Desmond Howard, Deion Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Eric Metcalf, Walter Payton, LeSean McCoy, or frankly anyone else who has actually played in the NFL. You'll be doing yourself a favor. Why will Holmes make an NFL team? The NFL's International Player Pathway program is really a marketing gimmick. Its goal is to create interest in the sport of football in other countries. The design is to make news stories and forum discussions just like this very one in countries outside the US. If it actually leads to a player from the program making an active roster as it did with Carolina's Efe Obada, then all the better. But if no one ever graduated from the program to actual playtime in a game, it wouldn't matter. It's for marketing, first and foremost. Think about it. The cost to the NFL is a proverbial drop in a very large bucket. The players in the program make (comparatively) nothing. But the league benefits from foreign press coverage and interest that is essentially free. Holmes will be an attractive candidate for the program for that very reason. NFL HQ will love to get someone at the top of his game involved in the program just like they will with Christian Wade, the English rugby player. Both of those guys will be selected as participants in the 2019 program and be assigned around June to a team new to the program. The new division to be added to the program this year joining the NFC South and AFC North hasn't been announced yet, but it probably will be another NFC division. Heck, it could be the NFC West, and Holmes would be assigned to the Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals, or 49ers. People not knowing the details will say that Holmes achieved something great by making an NFL team especially with no prior playing experience and that the NFL is easier than its proponents preach, but those knowing the situation better will realize that it is just for promoting the sport in locations that don't follow the game in large numbers. What about those other guys changing sports to football? For anyone suggesting Obada as a blueprint for Holmes, realize that Obada is 6'6", 265 pounds, and athletic. In other words, he has the ideal physique for his position. Also Obada was actually on NFL practice squads for two years before joining the International Pathway program for an additional year of learning. It took him four years to stick on a 53-man roster. Incidentally, the participants in the International Pathway program aren't even allowed to be on an active roster for the entire first year, by rule. Someone may point out that Jordan Mailata was drafted from rugby league. He was drafted quite simply because he is 6'8", 350 lbs, and athletic. Those rare body types don't grow on trees, not even in America. He was drafted on his raw potential alone. Holmes is nothing similar and won't even come close to be drafted. Just put that idea out of your head. The comment that Tampa Bay is pursuing him is pure fantasy (football). Another rugby convert, Alex Gray, is on the Falcon's practice squad and no closer to actual play than he was when he was assigned to the team via the International Player program in 2017. He just doesn't have the physical gifts to play the game at the highest level not to mention experience. Concerning Jarryd Hayne's situation, it is covered below. Are physical attributes really that critical? Quite simply, yes. It can't be stressed enough how important a person's physical attributes are. NFL GMs have very tight constraints with the physical measurables at each position. I've seen numerous great college players not even get a sniff of interest at the next level simply because they were - say - two inches too short for the position. Having the correct physical attributes gets your foot in the door. Holmes will technically be on an NFL roster because of the spot allocated to the International Pathway Program's member, but he'll never make a gameday roster or play a competitive down, at least not in the NFL. He's simply too small, not fast enough, can't jump high enough, doesn't have the requisite skills, doesn't know the first thing about the playbook, doesn't have any understanding of the game which must be innate, and has bad habits like running upright. Sure, he could - with time - learn to run lower, could learn the route tree, could learn the playbook and terminology (similar to learning another language), could learn to catch a spiral correctly, could learn the correct way to hold the ball, could be comfortable wearing the helmet and pads, could learn blocking assignments, et cetera. And if he is really dedicated to this quest as he claims, I imagine that he will learn all of those things. But how long is he prepared to be paid a relative pittance to learn a new sport in which he doesn't actually play in competitive games when he is guaranteed millions in his old one if he changes his mind again? Regardless he'll ultimately never be able to increase his size, speed, or athleticism appreciably. What about those other small guys who play in the NFL? Before someone points to smaller players like Darren Sproles, Tyreek Hill, and Devonta Freeman, realize that they have different body characteristics from Holmes. Guys like Sproles and Freeman have tree trunks for legs manifesting great power and explosiveness. Holmes's legs are puny by comparison. Hill can absolutely fly, while Holmes is considerably slower than his counterparts. They all are also lightning quick. They have worked for years at catching footballs from all angles, pass blocking, downfield blocking, blitz pickup, etc. Has Holmes ever caught a spiral over his shoulder? He's never blocked, of course. And don't discount the importance of picking up a blitz. The quarterback is the most important player on the team (and arguably the most important position in all of sports). If he is injured, your season is over (with a rare nod to Nick Foles). A back has to be able to block a blitzer. If he can't, he will sit on the bench. It's as simple as that. For all of these reasons, Holmes is clearly not a running back at the NFL level. So what position will Holmes play? He's a good candidate for a punt or kick returner. But no NFL team dedicates a roster spot just for a returner. As strange as it may sound, with ONLY 53 spots there just aren't enough to dedicate one for a kick returner. The college game has larger rosters and can get away with that, but not the NFL. Therefore Holmes would also need to be good enough at another position to make it. Clearly OL, DL, QB, TE, and LB are all out just from the physical requirements. RB and FB are out for reasons given earlier. He's not going to the USA to be a K or P like the AFL guys. That leaves WR, CB, and S. Cornerbacks need to be incredibly fast, have immediate acceleration, and be able to change direction instantly. They need "loose hips" to use football jargon. Has Holmes ever backpedalled? Holmes is not big enough to be a strong safety (imagine him trying to cover a TE!) and would not elicit any fear back at free safety. He possibly could be a nickelback (the fifth guy in the secondary), but here's the problem with any position on defense: they need to know the game innately. Think about it. The offense knows where the ball is (supposed to be) going. But the defense must react. They all need to understand formations instantly, have comprehensive understanding of all their coverages, react to motion, react to audibles without thinking, etc. Some have suggested the playbook for defense is smaller. Yes and no. It's true that there are far fewer coverage shells than offensive plays in the actual playbook, but remember that a defense has to stop an offense. So, they need to know pretty much everything than an opposing offense might be able to do. There is absolutely no substitute to years of playing in order to play defense because it all must be second nature. Does he have the desire to wait that long? I don't discount that Holmes could get all of that memorization and understanding of a defensive position down pat with thousands of hours in the film room. However, aside from all of that playbook knowledge, there's specific knowledge of the opposing teams and players. What move does Julian Edelman like to use to get off the line in press coverage, do the Steelers like to run short crosses or sideline patterns on 3rd & medium when trailing in the fourth quarter, where does this particular slot like to find holes in a Press Cover-3 Zone, what leverage does he use in a post corner, how does he tip off a double move, and on and on and on. All that knowledge specific to specific players comes with years of study and actual playing experience. It's harder to play on defense than offense because you can't depend on being subbed out to protect you from plays you don't know or players who have a mismatch against you and because all the knowledge must be inside your head and recalled instantly. The old saying "if you have to think, you are already behind" applies most appropriately to the defense. NFL offenses find and attack a vulnerability faster than a pack of hyenas find the baby wildebeest. So realistically, the only position for Holmes is WR. He has nowhere near the physical attributes to play a split receiver, so it's just slot receiver for him. Look at Moritz Boehringer. The German has better physical attributes than Holmes at 6'4", 227 lbs, 4.43 sec 40 time, and 39" vert. But even that has not been enough for him to break through to an active roster. Aside from the obvious things like knowing the playbook, full route tree, and being able to catch, Holmes will need to learn more esoteric things to be a successful receiver. He'll need to know how to have active hands to break a jam at the line, learn how to use leverage on a route, run routes exceptionally well every time and not tip off the specific route, be fearless over the middle (no alligator arms!), know the idiosyncrasies and tendencies of the guy opposite him, all the various types of blocking both for running plays and pass plays, et cetera. Why did Jarryd Hayne make it as far as he did? Well, it unsurprisingly turns out that catching a pointy inflated ball that is falling out of the sky and avoiding would-be tacklers in rugby league is similar to catching a pointy inflated ball that is falling out of the sky and avoiding would-be tacklers in football. Hayne had years of doing very well at that very skill. And he caught punts in football very naturally (until the cameras came on for the real games). In addition the position of running back is the easiest one to learn. Theoretically you could tell a RB exactly where to go in the huddle ("Handoff, take the B-gap off the right guard"). Also, his physique and athleticism were good enough for the NFL. Not great, but good enough to get on to the bottom of the roster. The team and head coach gave him a chance, a historic amount of off-season attrition for the 49ers meant that they had many holes to fill, and a few games into the season their top two running backs were injured. All were very favorable developments for Hayne which will likely not be repeated again. Hayne was cut because he was leading the league in a dubious statistic: fumbled punts. And the fastest way to get sent to the bench is to fumble the football. To his credit, he persevered during his time on the practice squad and was actually re-signed late in the season. And then the starting running back was late to practice and disciplined, so Hayne was elevated to starting RB for a game. That game was the one from which he acknowledged that he suffered major headaches which interfered with his sleep. For what it's worth, the day before Hayne's preseason debut, I spoke with the NFL player Adam Gotsis, the Australian who actually plays a position other than punter. He was a little surprised that someone would ask him about an Australian rugby league player! hahaha Anyway, Adam said that he thought Hayne needed at least a year to get his football knowledge up to par and would likely be on the practice squad, but if he stayed with it, he could possibly succeed with his dream of playing football. That was my opinion as well. Given Hayne's result, I'd say we were both about half right and half wrong. But I just don't see Holmes ever playing a down in the NFL in an actual, competitive game. It's too bad that he didn't do what Gotsis did by playing in the college system earlier. He might actually have developed enough experience, knowledge, and body attributes that way to play in the NFL. Holmes would be able to play real games in the Canadian sport, but then again he might not be interested in that. We shall see!

Yep Also rugby league footwork is worth just about nothing in the NFL

"Players in the NFL are not used to the quick footwork that rugby league players like Holmes possess" Really? I don't know much about Holmes, but I seriously doubt he has faster feet than the average NFL running back. Also you forget an important thing - without an innate sense of what is happening in the play around him, built over many years and something you don't get playing any other sport, it doesn't matter how quick his feet are.

Good on Val for giving it a go, and I wish him the best of luck...but...Going for an NFL roster is insane. Val's league stats are pointless to look at...American football is a completely different game to league in almost every way. But beyond that, its the size of the talent pool that people seem to overlook, when assessing someone like Val's chances of success. There are over a million high school football players, and of those only 70,000 make it to the NCAA. Of those 70K, 2,500 are scouted by NFL teams and 350 are invited to combine. From there, 256 are drafted into an NFL team, and of those, a handful will play in the NFL and have a career longer than 3yrs. Compare that to RL...a sport played almost exclusively in two states in Australia part of NZ and a small bit of England. Across Junior and Senior RL, there are 170,000 registered players, and 70,000 of those are under 12yrs old. Jumping from RL to the NFL is a great example of being a big fish in a small pond to a teeny tiny fish in a ocean. Jarryd Hayne showed the reality...A very talented league player, with speed and good size. One of the very best in the game. He made an NFL team based on talent, but also on the fact that he was an 'unknown' with potential. He was something different, a novelty, so he stood out from the pack. Once the games started, it took little time for one of the worst teams in the league to work out he wasn't up to it. Not surprisingly, his instincts weren't attuned to a game he had never played before. Holmes wont have the luxury of being a novelty, but he will have the problem of not being an instinctive american football player.

Nice article big fella

"Players in the NFL are not used to the quick footwork that rugby league players like Holmes possess." - so incorrect its not funny as for him being 90kg, there are plenty of speed guys in the NFL around that weight. not everyone is a behemouth

Val Holmes is an exceptional athlete his speed combined with excellent footwork and ability to catch the ball makes for a perfect wide receiver. I am hearing Tampa bay have a huge interest and will invest in him.

It's hard enough for players to swap rugby codes successfully so I think trying to make it in a game you haven't grown up playing is going to be incredibly difficult. I can't see VH as a running back (not the right physique) and wide receiver is a tough ask although he's more built for that with his speed and footwork, special teams is the most likely option but even that is a long shot. I certainly wish him well though.