Australian rugby’s recent focus has been firmly fixed on Michael Cheika and his tenuous job security, but there’s another coach facing an even tougher assignment.
If Cheika keeps his gig as Wallabies coach past next week, he’d only need to get Australia to World Cup quarter-final next year to sign off with a decent level of credibility and kudos.
To fall short of that would likely mean a loss to Fiji, Uruguay or Georgia that’s hard to fathom – even in the current climate of pessimism and gloom.
We’ve all bashed our fists on the table squealing about the reasons why the Wallabies have fallen so low, and it feels time to ponder a rugby subject other than Cheika’s employment.
This seems especially worthwhile given it has been pointed out that Rugby Australia, after telling us last year that they would make a call on whether to axe the Melbourne Rebels or Western Force from the Super Rugby competition in “the next 48-72 hours”, in fact took 123 days to make the announcement that the Force would be cut.
RA’s call on Cheika could drag well into next year!
So let’s turn to the task facing Brad Thorn at the Queensland Reds.
After taking over at the end of 2017, Thorn was quick to make his mark. Quade Cooper was punted to Brisbane club rugby as the Reds were going “in a different direction”. Now he’s off to the Rebels.
Prop James Slipper was brushed midway through this season after returning positive tests to cocaine and has moved to the Brumbies.
And the mail is that Karmichael Hunt – following his own cocaine issues – might be off the books at the Reds and on his way to the Waratahs over the next few weeks.
It’s clear that Thorn demands professionalism and a team-first ethic, and he’s not too interested in second and third chances.
Naturally, the downside to this hard-line approach is it might mean short-term pain for long-term gain, as the cliché goes.
There were some positive signs for Reds fans this year, but given that in five seasons since 2014 they’ve finished between 13th and 15th, Queenslanders probably don’t have the patience for a long wait for results.
But looking at the Reds squad for next Super Rugby season – which starts in only nine weeks – it’s heavy on youth and light on class and experience.
To be brutally honest, the Reds will struggle to match it with many sides.
What’s realistic? A four-to-six win season as it stands. In betting, the Reds ($67) are only above the Sunwolves ($501) to win the title. Another bottom-four finish appears likely, and it could be a real humiliation if they struggle to start well after their big clean-out.
The forwards lack a few proven performers and power. Taniela Tupou is top-class and likely to start with one of the brothers Smith – JP or Ruan. Brandon Paenga-Amosa looks the first-choice hooker but only made his debut last season.
He’s a 22-year-old, as are his likely second-rowers: Izack Rodda and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto. Caleb Timu and Adam Korczyk are relatively new to Super Rugby and look like top prospects.
They are set to form a back-row with captain Scott Higginbotham, who is by far and away the veteran of the team with 131 Super Rugby games and at the age of 32.
But perhaps the backline looks more fragile than the front eight.
Halfback options James Tuttle, Tate McDermott and Moses Sorovi have 42 games between them. The centre options have plenty of potential but again, not bankable performers.
Samu Kerevi will be there with Duncan Paia’aua or Chris Feauai-Sautia his likely partner. After Izaia Perese took off for the NRL this week, his replacement – Sefa Naivalu – will start on the wing to make up a back three including Aidan Toua at fullback and teenager Jordan Petaia on the other flank.
Hamish Stewart, a 20-year-old who has already played 18 matches for the Reds, is the first-choice five-eighth flowing Quade’s cutting.
Last season he played as you’d typically expect of a young and raw playmaker, being brutally exposed a few times but showing glimpses of why he’s been backed as a more reliable and gritty option than Quade.
On the Queensland Reds website, in the 2019 squad section under the Flyhalves header, Stewart’s is the only name. Below it is a row with a TBA.
So there’s a spot to fill, and presumably there’s a bit of the kitty to be spent given the exit of Quade and Slipper, and the impending departure of Hunt.
If you’re going to fork out a significant amount, then spend it on one of your big assets – a top-drawer five-eighth – right? And what do the Reds need most now? A dependable and accomplished performer to steer a young side around, but also a respected professional who fulfills Thorn’s cultural wishes.
So what about Matt Giteau? He fits the bill, doesn’t he? Yep he’s 36, but he’s not hobbling with chronic injuries and looks in good shape.
He is currently preparing to play for the Suntory Sungoliaths in the Japanese Top league final this weekend.
Giteau kicked an extra-time penalty goal in their semi-final to get Suntory into the decider, where he’ll face Kobe Steel, whose side includes Dan Carter and Adam Ashley-Cooper.
Giteau could play at No.10 or inside centre for the Reds, with Stewart inside or outside him.
Remember, Stewart even played a bit of fullback last season.
There has been a bit of talk that players in Japan are being lined up by Twiggy Forrest’s Global Rapid Rugby competition, which kicks off in February.
GRR have publicly stated they’re keen to sign up about 20 of the world’s top 100 players and Giteau’s name, alongside Carter’s, have been floated as recruitment targets. The marquee players will be spread across eight teams, with no salary cap in place.
But the Reds, given their precarious position, should be throwing their energy and coin at Giteau. Even if for one season, he would be a good fit for the Reds.
And given Thorn played at a top level until he was 40, he should know Giteau is still good to go even in the fast and physical domain of Super Rugby.
Carn Reds
Roar Rookie
Perhaps a reds membership would be your best chance at happiness Jez
Bobby
Guest
Just heard the Reds have lost another starter - off overseas . What is big Brad doing to QLD Rugby? Gee another slap in the face and look forward to the spin from the Reds.
Bobby
Guest
Trouble with Berwick now days is his tackling. Hasn't made a tackle for a couple of years . Think he has others tackle players on his behalf. Quade would be like a Peter Ryan in comparison.
Bobby
Guest
Locky- you have just precluded yourself from being the third Selector
Locky
Guest
Hunt and AAC will be in the Wallabies backline along with other Tah backs Fipps Fooley Beale and Foolau. Cheika needed to be sacked , so now it will be even more dire selections and poor players , we`ll have 10 Tahs in the starting 15 now. 1 Sio 2 Latu 3 Kepu 4 Simmons 5 Coleman 6 Dempsey 7 Hooper 8 Pocock 9 Genia 10 Foley 11 AAC 12 Beale 13 Hunt 14 DHP 15 Folau 16 TPN 17 Robertson 18 Tupou 19 Skelton 20 Hanigan 21 Naivalu 22 Toomua 23 Phipps
Buk
Guest
Thats something I did not understand too. I was touted as an experienced coach with a good background, but dumped in pretty quick time.
Bobby
Guest
The start of every year is full of optimism for every team. Each are shooting to win the competition. After 6 games or so reality starts to raise its head. After the terrible win rate of just over 30% last year I wonder what will be acceptable results this year. I reckon anther 30% ish will be an absolute failure, about 50% will be a pass and making the finals and winning the Conference would be a Credit to a Distinction with a High Distinction by winning the whole thing.. So much of the Reds season depends on 2 young lads playing exceptionally well each and every week - Thor and Hamish. Both are keys and will be targeted heavily. As always I look forward to the start of a new Super season.
Gepetto
Roar Rookie
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Bobby
Guest
Jacko, that is ridiculous. Of course that's not possible. Every team needs new blood but also needs experienced hard heads. Thorn got rid of 3 of those all in important positions. Others have asked for a release, one was granted recently. Thorn is surrounding himself with younger lads who obviously will support him (simply because he has given them contracts. It's more of about buying "loyalty". Believe it or not but several older players are not happy with HC (but probably OK with assustants). Anyway I suppose we will see how this amazing coach will perform. Hopefully a lot better than the dismal failure of 2018.
Jacko
Guest
Thats ok Bobby can you name the 30 experienced good quality players you would have in the squad instead of all the young guys the HC has under his coaching? make sure they are available to be signed as no point making it a fantasy team.
Jock the sock
Guest
Every December , January we hear that the rebels and reds are going to win the competition, Qc is going to do this and that, then reality hits, we play nz teams and don’t win a game
Manic Reds
Guest
They signed McGahan to fill the number 10 position. Love to see Gits there too. Perfect fit for an inexperienced team.
CUW
Roar Rookie
Doubt if Thorn had so much power at Crusaders - in a pack that had guys like Mccaw Chris Jack Whitelock Franks brothers , Read and even Waldrom. what is undisputed is that he was Mccaw's minder at rucks and mauls :D
Brian
Guest
No way, no how. Player power poison
Jock the sock
Guest
True it’s been great training run for the Fijians who showed up the pathetic oz nrc sides
Jock the sock
Guest
The reds should buy more Fijians. Not much local talent.
jacko
Guest
Fiji disagree
Jacko
Guest
I will put money on it that Thorn called the shots on line-outs and forward plays way more than Carter did RO. In NZ its a team game.
jeznez
Roar Guru
I could chuck Naiyaravoro's name out there as well - why did we hang on to Clark and Newsome and let big Taqele go? Although supposedly Folau's brother has joined to fill the big man's shoes - have never seen him play either code so no idea how realistic that is. I think our talent identification and squad management is massively sub-par. Can't believe the apparently soon to be announced signing of the SA lock Le Roux Roets is he going to be the next Hendrik Roodt? Or fingers crossed the next Jack Pot? Regardless why go for him when Skelton has openly stated he wants to come back and has rebuffed offers from Saracens and Stade Toulousain to make himself available?
jeznez
Roar Guru
I'd be over the moon if Gibson would head the same way at the Tahs and give Hegarty an extended run at 15. The likes of Folau and Naiyaravoro were the beneficiaries in his limited goes last year. Absolutely need those 'glue' players.