The AFLW 2019 meta-preview

Welcome to a new year of the ‘Following Football’ meta-analysis of the AFL.

To start the season, here’s a preview of the women’s competition, which starts this Saturday, 2 February. We’re going to share both the ELO rating from the ‘Following Football’ rating system for the AFLW and the sum of the array of predictions for the seven-week AFLW season.

The ‘Following Football’ network covers all sorts of sports, not just footy. We maintain ratings for American football, both collegiate and pro, the Canadian Football League, the English Premier League and others.

Current ELO-FF ratings

1. Western Bulldogs (58.1)
2. Brisbane Lions (56.2)
3. North Melbourne Kangaroos (54.0)
4. Adelaide Crows (53.1)
5. Melbourne Demons (51.9)
6. Collingwood Magpies (50.2)
7. Geelong Cats (49.5)
8. Greater Western Sydney Giants (47.7)
9. Fremantle Dockers (43.5)
10. Carlton Blues (35.8)

The average score for an AFL or AFLW team is always 50 because the adjustments following each game are ‘zero-sum’ – one team gains the exact same amount that their opponent loses after that game, and that amount is determined by the difference between expectation and actual result (more or less).

Broadly, the difference between two teams’ respective ratings is the expected margin of victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral field in neutral conditions. We don’t need to do computer-driven formulae to maintain the accuracy of these ratings; what matters is the score – though, again, more or less due to garbage time adjustments and that sort of thing.

With just that, we’ve been as accurate as the best of the algorithmic three-page formula systems over the last five years.

We’ve also combined all the predictions we’ve been able to find, including some from The Roar, the Age, Ladbrokes and BetEasy, FMI, Wooden Finger and many more. Here’s the overall ranking that resulted from that combination:

1. Western Bulldogs (average placement: 2.2)
2. Brisbane Lions (avg: 3.0)
3. North Melbourne Kangaroos (avg: 3.9)
4. Adelaide Crows (avg: 4.1)
5. Collingwood Magpies (avg: 5.4)
6. Greater Western Sydney Giants (avg: 5.5)
7. Melbourne Demons (avg: 5.7)
8. Geelong Cats (avg: 7.5)
9. Carlton Blues (avg: 8.0)
10. Fremantle Dockers (avg: 8.9)

Now, just for fun, let’s use that consensus to make a guess at the game-by-game results in advance. Comparing the two lists above, teams one to four are identical; teams five to eight seem to be pretty much equal (maybe Geelong is slightly behind the other three), and teams nine and ten are quite far behind them. With a small HFA integrated into the forecast, let’s forge ahead and make some picks:

Round 1

• Geelong defeat Collingwood
• Western Bulldogs edge Adealide
• North Melbourne wallops Carlton
• Melbourne defeat Fremantle
• Brisbane defeat GWS

Round 2

• GWS edges North Melbourne
• Collingwood edges Melbourne
• Western Bulldogs defeat Geelong
• Adelaide upend Carlton
• Brisbane too good for Fremantle

Round 3

• North Melbourne over Western Bulldogs
• GWS over Carlton
• Fremantle holds off Collingwood
• Adelaide at home over Geelong
• Brisbane over Melbourne

Round 4

• Geelong over Carlton
• Western Bulldogs at home over Brisbane
• Adelaide in Darwin over Fremantle
• Collingwood defeat GWS
• Melbourne edges North Melbourne

Round 5

• Brisbane hosts and beats Geelong
• Carlton might hold off Collingwood at home (or do you want to put down ‘draw’?)
• GWS at home over Melbourne
• North Melbourne over Adelaide
• Western Bulldogs would beat Fremantle anywhere

Round 6

• Geelong over Fremantle
• Collingwood perhaps hold off North Melbourne
• Western Bulldogs over Melbourne in the Marvel Stadium double-header
• Adelaide over GWS
• Brisbane over Carlton

Round 7

• GWS over Geelong in Canberra
• Melbourne over Adelaide
• North Melbourne over Fremantle
• Collingwood over Brisbane
• Western Bulldogs over Carlton

(Darrian Traynor/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Of course they’re all guesses, and nobody does better than about 70 per cent correct over the course of a season, so let’s give each of these about a 1.5-game margin on either side for safety. Let’s add up the games and see what we’ve got…

Conference A

1. Western Bulldogs (6-1) – range from 4.5 to 7 wins
2. North Melbourne Kangaroos (4-3) – range from 2.5 to 5.5 wins
3. Adelaide Crows (4-3) – range from 2.5 to 5.5 wins
4. Melbourne Demons (3-4) – range from 1.5 to 4.5 wins
5. Fremantle Dockers (1-6) – range from 0 to 2.5 wins

Conference B

1. Brisbane Lions (5-2) – range from 3.5 to 6.5 wins
2. Collingwood Magpies (4-2-1) – range from 3 to 6 wins
3. GWS Giants (4-3) – range from 2.5 to 5.5 wins
4. Geelong Cats (3-4) – range from 1.5 to 4.5 wins
5. Carlton Blues (0-6-1) – range from 0 to two wins

This would make Brisbane and the Bulldogs the home teams for the preliminary finals, hosting the Kangaroos (who defeated Adelaide in Round 5) and the Magpies (who defeated the Giants in Round 4, even if Carlton beats them).

In theory the home teams should be favoured in both games, setting up a rematch of last year’s grand final between the Lions and the Bulldogs. Our ratings system currently suggests that on a neutral field the Lions would pull off an ugly trifecta: three straight losses in the first three grand finals in the AFLW’s short history. The Buffalo Bills would owe them a condolence card.

The Bulldog women would be one up on their men’s team, with two consecutive titles to brag about.