We had a pretty poor weekend predictions wise, but it was bound to happen after we called the weekend to be ‘pretty one sided.’ There were some upsets and big wins so let’s break it down and see what happened.
Firstly let’s have a look at how our Algorithm’s predicted results stacked up against reality.
The Hurricanes bounced back and blew away the Brumbies after the Brumbies had a great Round 2. The Rebels held on against the men from the south, retaining their unbeaten run. The Sharks suffered their first defeat of the season and the Bulls harked back to the Bulls of old, defeating the Lions away from home.
Super Rugby: Predicted vs actual (Round 3) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy: 13 from 21 (62%) | Season margin error: 15.48 | |||
Weekend accuracy: 3 from 7 (43%) | Weekend margin error: 17.71 | |||
Teams | Actual score | Predicted score | Correct | Margin error |
Hurricanes | 43 | 24 | Yes | 21 |
Brumbies | 13 | 15 | ||
Rebels | 24 | 21 | No | 14 |
Highlanders | 19 | 30 | ||
Sharks | 11 | 23 | No | 10 |
Stormers | 16 | 18 | ||
Chiefs | 15 | 38 | No | 38 |
Sunwolves | 30 | 15 | ||
Reds | 12 | 22 | Yes | 5 |
Crusaders | 22 | 37 | ||
Jaguares | 23 | 29 | Yes | 3 |
Blues | 19 | 22 | ||
Lions | 12 | 35 | No | 33 |
Bulls | 30 | 20 |
Hurricanes v Brumbies
How can you predict this competition this year? The Brumbies won 54-17 last week and then a week later lose 43-13 to the ‘Canes in Palmerston North. Beauden Barrett was back, but it was local boy Ngani Laumape who was the star of the show dotting down for 3 tries.
Rebels v Highlanders
Who remembers when the Rebels nearly got the Axe! Thankfully they didn’t, as they are showing their worth, winning against the Highlanders 24-19. The men from Melbourne are now two and zero, and the only team along with the Crusaders undefeated.
Chiefs v Sunwolves
We always want to see the underdogs win games, but you probably wouldn’t have picked them to beat 2013 Super Rugby champions at home. The Sunwolves have been very close so far this season, only losing out against the Waratahs by a point. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are still waiting for their first win.
Reds v Crusaders
Without being rude, the Reds were always going to struggle against the Crusader juggernaut. There are few teams who wouldn’t. The Crusaders are now on an 18 match win streak and don’t look like slowing down. There was only three points in it at halftime, but the Crusaders were too strong in the second half winning 22-12.
Lions v Bulls
The Bulls are the team of old after beating the Lions in Johannesburg 30-12. At no stage did the Lions look like they were going to win and it’s the first time since 2012 the Bulls have won at Ellis Park.
Sharks v Stormers
No doubt the Stormers squad got a real talking to after their abysmal Round 1 performance. Well, it’s certainly worked with them winning Round 2 and 3. The Sharks, however, are still top of the South African conference with 11 points and 2nd in the overall table to the Crusaders.
Jaguares v Blues
Leaps and strides is all I can say about the Jaguares winning at home 23-19. They’re living up to their expectation and we for one hope they continue their run. They see themselves sitting 3rd on 9 points only behind the Bulls (also on nine points) due to points difference.
Here are the Algorithms predictions for the fourth round of Super Rugby.
The Algorithm’s Predictions: Super Rugby Round 4 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy: 13 from 21 (62%) | Season margin error: 15.48 | |||
Teams | Predicted Score | Chance of winning | Prediction | |
Hurricanes | 35 | 75.3% | Hurricanes to win by 11 | |
Highlanders | 24 | 23.7% | ||
Rebels | 23 | 38.6% | Brumbies to win by 5 | |
Brumbies | 28 | 59.9% | ||
Crusaders | 31 | 79.2% | Crusaders to win by 14 | |
Chiefs | 17 | 18.5% | ||
Blues | 29 | 76.7% | Blues to win by 14 | |
Sunwolves | 15 | 22.5% | ||
Waratahs | 32 | 78.7% | Waratahs to win by 15 | |
Reds | 17 | 20.8% | ||
Lions | 45 | 77.8% | Lions to win by 13 | |
Jaguares | 32 | 21.4% | ||
Bulls | 28 | 64.1% | Bulls to win by 3 | |
Sharks | 25 | 33.8% |
Hurricanes vs Highlanders
The Hurricanes have another home game, this time back in Wellington, and hoping to build on a strong performance in Round 3. The Highlanders, however, are hoping to bounce back after their first loss. Both teams are on nine points with two wins and a loss.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hurricanes | 17 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 422 | 366 | 47% | 24.8 |
Highlanders | 17 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 366 | 422 | 53% | 21.5 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
6/1/2018 | Highlanders | 30 | 14 | Hurricanes |
3/24/2018 | Hurricanes | 29 | 12 | Highlanders |
3/18/2017 | Hurricanes | 41 | 15 | Highlanders |
5/27/2016 | Hurricanes | 27 | 20 | Highlanders |
3/5/2016 | Highlanders | 17 | 16 | Hurricanes |
7/4/2015 | Hurricanes | 14 | 21 | Highlanders |
6/5/2015 | Hurricanes | 56 | 20 | Highlanders |
3/20/2015 | Highlanders | 13 | 20 | Hurricanes |
5/16/2014 | Hurricanes | 16 | 18 | Highlanders |
3/21/2014 | Highlanders | 35 | 31 | Hurricanes |
7/6/2013 | Hurricanes | 44 | 49 | Highlanders |
3/15/2013 | Highlanders | 19 | 23 | Hurricanes |
5/12/2012 | Highlanders | 20 | 26 | Hurricanes |
3/17/2012 | Hurricanes | 17 | 19 | Highlanders |
5/13/2011 | Highlanders | 13 | 6 | Hurricanes |
2/18/2011 | Hurricanes | 9 | 14 | Highlanders |
4/24/2010 | Highlanders | 31 | 33 | Hurricanes |
The algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by 11. With six of the last seven games being won by the home team, we hope this one goes to form – for the numbers sake.
Rebels vs Brumbies
The Rebels will be excited to have a strong test against the Brumbies and will be looking to keep their unbeaten record intact. The Brumbies will be looking for a return to their Round 1 form, rather than Round 2, and put down a statement that they are a force to be reckoned with.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rebels | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 305 | 418 | 44% | 19.1 |
Brumbies | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 418 | 305 | 56% | 26.1 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
2/15/2019 | Brumbies | 27 | 34 | Rebels |
5/12/2018 | Brumbies | 24 | 27 | Rebels |
3/9/2018 | Rebels | 33 | 10 | Brumbies |
6/3/2017 | Brumbies | 32 | 3 | Rebels |
4/15/2017 | Rebels | 19 | 17 | Brumbies |
5/13/2016 | Rebels | 22 | 30 | Brumbies |
4/18/2015 | Brumbies | 8 | 13 | Rebels |
2/28/2015 | Rebels | 15 | 20 | Brumbies |
5/31/2014 | Brumbies | 37 | 10 | Rebels |
3/28/2014 | Rebels | 32 | 24 | Brumbies |
6/7/2013 | Brumbies | 39 | 17 | Rebels |
2/22/2013 | Rebels | 13 | 30 | Brumbies |
6/1/2012 | Rebels | 19 | 27 | Brumbies |
4/14/2012 | Brumbies | 37 | 6 | Rebels |
6/10/2011 | Brumbies | 32 | 17 | Rebels |
2/25/2011 | Rebels | 25 | 24 | Brumbies |
The algorithm has the Brumbies to win by six points at home. With the Rebels taking the three last games (home and away). the Brumbies will feel they are due a win.
Crusaders vs Chiefs
Who can stop the Crusaders on their record streak? Will the Chiefs get their first win of the season? What a win it would be! We’ve have had a look at the last ten encounters between these two teams and interestingly both are on five wins apiece.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 224 | 231 | 50% | 22.4 |
Chiefs | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 231 | 224 | 50% | 23.1 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
6/2/2018 | Chiefs | 20 | 34 | Crusaders |
2/24/2018 | Crusaders | 45 | 23 | Chiefs |
7/29/2017 | Crusaders | 27 | 13 | Chiefs |
5/19/2017 | Chiefs | 24 | 31 | Crusaders |
7/1/2016 | Chiefs | 23 | 13 | Crusaders |
2/27/2016 | Crusaders | 21 | 27 | Chiefs |
4/17/2015 | Crusaders | 9 | 26 | Chiefs |
2/28/2015 | Chiefs | 40 | 16 | Crusaders |
4/19/2014 | Chiefs | 17 | 18 | Crusaders |
2/21/2014 | Crusaders | 10 | 18 | Chiefs |
However, on home soil the algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 13 and break the deadlock. I’ll even go out on a whim and say it could be more the way they are playing. (Based on last week’s predictions this now means a thumping Chiefs win.)
Blues vs Sunwolves
This could be the game of the round. Although it’s not really a make or break game for the Auckland outfit, it is a game when they saw the fixture calendar that they would have targeted to win.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blues | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 58 | 50% | 22.5 |
Sunwolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 45 | 50% | 29 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
4/14/2018 | Sunwolves | 10 | 24 | Blues |
7/15/2017 | Sunwolves | 48 | 21 | Blues |
The Sunwolves have been strong, and could have had more than their one win. Although it is still early doors, the Blues have been looking like the same team in previous seasons, aside from their strong Round 1 performance.
The algorithm has the Blues to win by 15 which is exactly what the Blues fans will want to hear. However with a win apiece in their history, the Sunwolves ‘in form’ and the Blues with zero wins … well, it could easily go to the Sunwolves.
Waratahs vs Reds
The Waratahs are coming off a bye week so will be rested and raring to go. They are sitting on one win and one loss, with only one point in both of their matches, so will be hoping for a more confident victory this time around. The Reds will look to pick up their first win of the season in this match, with losses to NZ sides Highlanders and Crusaders in their first matches.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Waratahs | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 138 | 90% | 29.5 |
Reds | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 138 | 295 | 10% | 13.8 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
6/2/2018 | Reds | 41 | 52 | Waratahs |
4/14/2018 | Waratahs | 37 | 16 | Reds |
4/29/2017 | Reds | 26 | 29 | Waratahs |
3/27/2016 | Reds | 13 | 15 | Waratahs |
2/27/2016 | Waratahs | 30 | 10 | Reds |
6/13/2015 | Waratahs | 31 | 5 | Reds |
3/7/2015 | Reds | 5 | 23 | Waratahs |
7/12/2014 | Reds | 3 | 34 | Waratahs |
3/1/2014 | Waratahs | 32 | 5 | Reds |
7/13/2013 | Waratahs | 12 | 14 | Reds |
The algorithm has the ‘Tahs to win by 15 and judging by the last ten results between these two teams, the computer is bang on with the last Reds win coming in 2013.
Lions vs Jaguares
Who would have thought that the Lions (2018 finalists) would be last in the South African conference? The Lions are at home against an in-form Jaguares outfit and will be looking to draw the strength of the previous seasons to grab that second win of the season and get back on track.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lions | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 269 | 230 | 63% | 33.625 |
Jaguares | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 230 | 269 | 38% | 28.75 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
2/16/2019 | Jaguares | 16 | 25 | Lions |
7/21/2018 | Lions | 40 | 23 | Jaguares |
3/24/2018 | Jaguares | 49 | 35 | Lions |
2/24/2018 | Lions | 47 | 27 | Jaguares |
4/21/2017 | Lions | 24 | 21 | Jaguares |
3/11/2017 | Jaguares | 36 | 24 | Lions |
7/16/2016 | Jaguares | 34 | 22 | Lions |
5/21/2016 | Lions | 52 | 24 | Jaguares |
The algorithm has the Lions to win by 14 at home this time, so perhaps they can get over their recent blips and get back to form. Only time will tell.
Bulls vs Sharks
Big game! A ‘top of the South African conference clash’ (it rolls right off the tongue doesn’t it?). 1st vs 2nd. In such a tight match we are going to let The algorithm do the talking – and it has the Bulls to win by just two points! A game that really could go either way.
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bulls | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 206 | 80% | 26.2 |
Sharks | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 206 | 262 | 10% | 20.6 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
5/12/2018 | Bulls | 39 | 33 | Sharks |
4/14/2018 | Sharks | 10 | 40 | Bulls |
6/30/2017 | Sharks | 17 | 30 | Bulls |
3/18/2016 | Bulls | 16 | 16 | Sharks |
4/18/2015 | Sharks | 10 | 17 | Bulls |
2/28/2015 | Bulls | 43 | 35 | Sharks |
3/22/2014 | Bulls | 23 | 19 | Sharks |
2/15/2014 | Sharks | 31 | 16 | Bulls |
7/6/2013 | Bulls | 20 | 19 | Sharks |
5/25/2013 | Sharks | 16 | 18 | Bulls |
We have also looked at previous results between these two sides which is heavily stacked in the Bulls favour.
What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts. Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and much else besides.
Charlie Turner
Guest
Or tweak the algorithm!
Doctordbx
Roar Rookie
Mate... I'd get a new computer.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Just repeat again, the prediction percentage last weekend? History can only ever be one factor informing a prediction.