Last November, I isolated Godolphin’s Cross Counter, trained by Charlie Appleby, the Williams part-owned Cliffsofmoher, and Waller Racing’s Youngstar as my primary Melbourne Cup contenders.
Here we are again, six months later, in the Sydney Cup, with the same protagonists, loaded up with different horses and ready to go at it again.
The 2019 Sydney Cup shapes up as a reasonable quality Domestic Group 1 race. The race may lack internationally rated talent (110+) but it makes up for that with an excellently handicapped field.
Charlie may not be my boy this time.
The horse holding Cup favouritism is the Charlie Appleby trained Dubhe. Appleby won this race in 2017 with Polarisation.
While the betting market is factoring in the Appleby down-under strike rate it seems the assessors are determining the son of Dubawi’s skill level off his early career defeat of Communique, a good horse who finished 2018 rating 109 progressing from a similar mark as Dubhe in the low 100’s at season’s start.
Dubhe’s Meydan defeat of Red Galileo is neither here-nor-there as I wouldn’t rate that horse a contender in this race. Other than Communique’s race nearly a year ago, I am struggling to see him rating above 101-104 range at best. I’m keeping him on his established number until he shows me otherwise.
He is handicapped at a 102 and that is a fair weight putting him in the race with a good chance but not the favourite in my book.
The two I see advantaged under the scale are Midterm and, to a lesser degree, Shraaoh. Seasoned campaigners Big Duke and Gallic Chieftain can also claim a scale advantage but both lack at the end of a solid 3200 metres distance, although both have placings at the trip.
Midterm looks significant. I’ve been waiting patiently for this horse to regain a semblance of his Euro form and, until his last outing, he was firmly lodged in my red-ink column. Midterm’s UK form returned a black-type ‘beaten-form’ benchmark 110-115 range but generally his gallops indicated the lower end of that range.
When finally dropped back a level below black-type he was dominate beating the good horse Mount Logan and Fierce Impact, who is now racing well in Australia. He received a victory rating of 108, indicating his Group-form was genuine. Mount Logan consistently returned a 107-110 range for most of his career.
The son of Galileo was sold to Team Williams and shipped to Macedon Lodge. Midterm received the foreign-purchase benchmark discount to begin racing in Australia off a 98 mark. There he stayed until starting a (mildly expected) scale jump last start with a solid victory. Although penalised 1.5kgs (three points) in the Cup, raising his race-weight to 52.5 kgs, he is still well in at the handicap.
Weighted on his Euro form he would be expected to carry between 54.0 to 55.5 kgs. He is my clear favourite.
Waller’s seeing stars. The Chris Waller trained, UK-import Shraaoh, is another sleeper who is beginning to wake-up. He has been solid at every distance run in Australia. His UK form was average, competing in races two or three triers below this level.
His main claim to fame was a three-lengths maiden defeat by the outstanding Group 1 galloper Poet’s Word. Bad luck running into that horse in your maiden.
Shraaoh arrived in Australia, received his foreign-purchase discount dropping him to a rating of 84 and promptly won the 2800m race at Flemington last Cup day. Chris Waller has improved this horse. The Official Rating agrees with me. He now officially rates at 100 without winning again.
To get a line on Shraaoh’s actual current rating, take a line on his competitive 0.5 length defeat by Gallic Chieftian, receiving two points (1kg) making him about three points inferior to the resurgent Archie Alexander trained grey. That would give the Waller horse a rating of 101. He defeated Sir Charles Road by a length in the same race, so his 100-102 range is confirmed.
If Midterm returned a 106-108 when winning Rosehill’s Manion Cup, as I suspect, and with Shraaoh finishing a strong third, that again confirms him in a competitive range. He is by outstanding stallions and one of the greatest horses of all-time, See the Stars, out of a Monsun mare. Monson’s sons have won three recent Melbourne Cups.
I guess we are going to see where he really lays on the scale.
Shraaoh has the potential to find another couple of points over this trip but even if he rates 101-102, he is meeting Dubhe at a 1.5kgs (three points) weight difference to his advantage, so you may consider him a chance of beating that horse home.
Of the others, both Big Duke, a place-getter in 2017 and Gallic Chieftain, are very well placed on their current performance mark but at a disadvantage to Midterm. Semari looks very promising, but is meeting seasoned horses with no weight advantage. She will have to be very good to even place, let alone win.
Like Semari, Rondinella is declared 1kg overweight and would need luck to finish in front of Big Duke on their Tancred performances particularly after that unnecessary adjustment to her handicap. Yogi was great in that race, but needs others to under-perform too.
(AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)
There are plenty of good horses in the race not mentioned here that, at weight-for-age, would be favoured to fight that style of race out, but this is Australia and handicaps are the way we sort the wheat from the chaff.
When a horse near the top of the weights wins a major handicap, you know you are looking at a pretty serious horse. That is why I’m looking down the weights in this race’s renewal.
Of the other races, I managed to lose some pennies on Verry Elleegant in the VRC Oaks but she has kindly returned most of it and should continue the debt repayment scheme tomorrow in the Australian Oaks.
What a great season for outstanding fillies. In the spring I was sure Verry Elleegant was the best and a very good ‘best’. Then, Arcadia Queen shows up with stellar performances and just when it is settling down, Mystic Journey arrives to claim the bragging rights. You get the feeling the female dominance of the Cox Plate may well continue.
The rest of the races are really tough with chances everywhere, although I thought in the last, that I Am Excited might have a fitness edge to keep her ahead of Invincibella, stablemate Zumbelina and Spright, while trying to chase down Winter Bride, White Moss and Quilista, while praying that Ellicazoom, Resin and Siren’s Fury pull-up for a cup-of-tea at the 600 metres.
Tough race.
Don’t get me started on the Provincial Championship. Great race. Kiamichi backing up in the Percy Sykes is interesting. She keeps measuring up. I think Damien Lane must have been pre-booked for Cheer Leader or she is better than I think she is. Team Hawkes are having a throw at the stumps with a Alan Bell owned first starter in the race named Kahlo.
Today should bring a joyful end to one of the greatest horseracing careers of all time. The champion and legend Winx runs her last race. What a ride it has been for all who love our sport for all the right reasons. What an athlete she is.
Winx. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Once Winz-mania dies down, I’ve been thinking, I’ll write a piece about her and where I think she rests in world racing history. In the modern era, Secretariat is still the best horse I ever put a number to. But when it comes to mares, I can’t think of one better but I am yet to give her a career number. Don’t worry it will be big.
A few years ago, I had some fun choosing a song accompanying a Winx piece I wrote when her greatness was still in debate. It was Crowded House’s, ‘Message to My Girl’, you know, NZ band with a great song that seemed to have a relevance to the events her supporters hoped would unfold and luckily that magic came to pass.
I will end this article with another YouTube tune. Some might think I would choose Crowded’s classic to accompany her last race, ‘Don’t Dream it’s Over’.
But no. I’ll take you back well-over half-a-century to a rock-n-roll singer named Jackie Wilson. Probably most of you have never heard of Jackie Wilson, but you will now.
For Winx’s farewell, let’s all dance.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
The best answer to your questions is Secretariat. When you line-breed to maintain the beneficial traits, you also reduce the variations in each successive generation. One consequence of that is that if you introduce new genetic material, the effects of that material will be more similar in all the horses that have been bred through the same lines than it would in other populations. So, there can be mixes of genes out there that aren't of so much help in some lines, but when you cross them to the right line they'll be much more beneficial, better penetrance as it were. Of course, when you breed the best mares you have with the best sires when they are quite closely related, you'll get consistently good horses. It's not a bad idea at all, but others will do the same thing and if they have more horses they'll eventually overtake you. It might take centuries, but they will. So, at some point you cross to another line, and for Nearco a very important cross happened when his grandson Bold Ruler mated with Somethingroyal, daughter of Princequillo. This cross was extremely productive, where the right combinations of genes that may not have previously mixed did, with stunning results. The only issue when this happens, is that for the progeny of Secretariat, the mix of the right genes aren't necessarily inherited. Secretariat was just not a champion sire in comparison to his deeds on the track. Good, but no champion. Eventually though, after some generations, the better mixes of this cross produced champion sires (for instance, Sir Tristram through Secretariats half brother Sir Gaylord with Princequillo also on the mare's side). The trouble for the studs is that you can probably only truly predict these results in hindsight. Someone has to experiment with crossing different lines before you know which crosses can do this. I would think that the idea of a champion spontaneously introducing a new mutation or haplotype is not as likely as a rare mutation or haplotype crossing into a very well-bred line, but I'm sure in 20 years we'll find out so much more about genetics that I'll look back and laugh at how naïve my post is!
kv joef
Roar Guru
had googled you some time ago :-) . Thx for the insight, it is appreciated. i would not be surprised to find that major international breeding operations are going down that path if not already some way down there. Do you think an 'era-champion' haplotype. If talking about a champ racehorse come stallion, would by chance and probability, not 'transmit' the complete structure to any offspring allowing the influence of the mare. Maybe for Htype at mating time, be broken up and reconstituted through a series of matings at a later date. I only mention this because that is what Tesio believed and he bred barely 800 horses in a 50 year career (25% stakes winners), 25 Italian Derbies etc and quite a few champions most notably the unbeaten era-champions Nearco and Ribot. One reason why he didn't keep his racehorse/stallions that he line-bred, Except for a short WWII period. He believe he couldn't improve the offspring and so dispensed the stallions elsewhere. With the current knowledge does this traditional line-breeding still standup. Is it even believable? I have no doubt horses like Phar Lap would have dominated in most modern eras as champions do, except maybe against each other. EG PLap racing against two serious racehorses, lead them by a furlong (200m), on another occasion smashed a race record by 6 seconds. I am v.interested in this type of research. Strangely enough, Tesio was obsessed with breeding mutation too, from his 'pure' stock. Occasionally, he thought he had one but all proved disappointing. Hope you had a good weekend.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Can I jump in on the genetics discussion as, to be fair, I do have one or two academic publications that include genetics, albeit it's not my primary field by a long stretch? It might seem like the thoroughbred genetics are set in stone, and that is certainly true when you compare large cohorts. It would be slower in a population where 1 mare = 1 offspring to change the characteristics of the average horse than in mice or dogs or rabbits. However, when you're talking about comparing the best horses of a generation, then rarer changes in genetics need to be considered and are more likely to have an effect. This isn't just mutations (there's an average of ~60 mutations per generation in humans, which we know from studying people with rare mutations that are not inherited, my current academic area of interest, just search me on pubmed if you want to see what I do), but also rare recombinations that create novel haplotypes. Basically, genes aren't randomly shuffled, genes which are closer to each other on the chromosome are less likely to undergo recombinations and are generally inherited together, but on rare occasions there'll be a recombination to introduce a new haplotype, or combination of genes, that wasn't previously present in the population. Whether champion thoroughbreds had such a significant shift in their genome is anyone's guess, although whole genome sequencing is getting cheap enough to find out.
kv joef
Roar Guru
My offering to Aransan of many opportunities to counter some my arguments were openly exposed, hoping the conversation would expand beyond a simple differing of opinion. Below, for future readers benefit, is my attempt to correct my obvious errors and confirmation concerning one of Aransan’s main points. The evidenced potential counter to my ‘closed’ breeding argument may have offered an expansion of the discussion into an exciting genetic-research thread. Examples of the obvious errors – incorrectly noting Peter Pan was allocated 10.6 (’35) not 10.5, the same weight as Kindergarten (’43) and Bernborough 10.9 (more weight thsn PP – ’46) but then I would have retorted that The Barb was weighted at 11.7 (1869), Archer 11.4 (1863), Carbine 10.12 (1891) etc maybe expanding the discussion on how official handicapping continues to change over time. For the casual reader, concerning academic papers, read the abstract, introduction and conclusion. The reader could trust that the contained methodology was ‘peer-reviewed’ and as a final check, Google the authors academic record and check their credits/reference count, and any criticisms. Please excuse my Tesio’ism reference when referring to my mis-spelling of the ‘Nearco-Nearctic-Northern Dancer’ line, in a previous comment, publishing ‘Nearco-Nearatic-Nothern Dancer’. Note, Nearco is spelled correctly but i replaced ‘c’ with ‘a’ in Nearctic and the ‘r’ in Northern Dancer’s spelling is gone from the third position but appears correctly twice elsewhere but minus one position for the missing letter. Childish, but amusing to me. Equally, i thought Aransan’s references to Hilbert, Ramanujan and the referenced texts was wonderful and equally amusing, even though, maybe, i was meant to be the brunt of this cleverness. no offence was taken. My concession to Aransan, if argued with evidence, was about the proposition of the developing thoroughbred. My comments hinted about Trinity (Hill’s research) etc and i continued hinting that Aransan’s proposition ‘could’ be valid but then i waited for an evidenced rebuttal or confirmation of his argument. None came. To this point, there are currently several universities looking into various aspects of thoroughbred genetics. There are several commercial research companies doing the same. Arguably, PlusVital (U.S. based supplement company) is producing outstanding work headed by one of Hill’s academic offspring, the brilliant Dr. Beatrice McGivney. Genetic research papers are available from their website at a minor cost and maybe free examples are available to interested parties. Possibly, the seminal 2006 publication, ‘Mitochondrial DNA: An important female contribution to thoroughbred racehorse performance’, was a mainstay reference for Aransan but nothing was referenced, so I don’t know. Personally, i have never accepted ‘i think’ as the validation of a proposition. Now, as the basis of exploration, no problem. Finally, to my comments about Shannon – Prof. Claude Shannon, ‘father’ of both, the digital and information age. Shannon suggested that an investigator should be able to get to the essence of an inquiry with two or three well-crafted questions. IMHO, Shannon’s work profoundly and practically affected daily lives and his academic offspring continued to do the same in so many areas. I try and implement Shannon’s questioning hypothesis in my own insignificant inquiries. One of Shannon’s associates (students), original work mathematician, Prof. E.O.Thorpe, had and continues to have a profound effect on my model development. Original work mathematician, Dr. J.H.Simons, and Ray Dalio are among others. My model role models have three obvious things in common; 1) They did not accept untested propositions and were/are unrelenting in trying to refine their understanding, sometimes, after costly mistakes accepting the error was theirs, then continuing their project investigation to finality; 2) They developed successful technical models based on their interpretation of historical and fundamental data going back over a hundred years, more in some cases. Their models have a significant common foundation although their final algorithms are different; 3) They took their acquired understandings into the real world and tested them. The result was three of the most successful and profitable hedge funds that ever came into existence. The public description of their modelling wasn’t explicit in minute detail but left many clues/ starting points for the researcher. Simply, this paragraph is my counter to Aransan’s ‘you can’t do it’. I agree i won’t reference how i ‘do it’, that would be a silly. I am not in these genius’ intellectual grouping. Nowhere near it – i am barely Benchmark 80 and they are timeless legendary performers. i do try to find out ‘why’, followed by rigorously testing each hypothesis. if wrong, back to the drawing board. if positive, on to the next step, like Faraday’s method of progressing understanding. As for my Maxwell reference, he had a brilliance that is nearly incomprehensible. he developed the speed-of-light limitation math based on Faraday’s observational conclusions and on whose shoulders, Einstein could comfortably rest 40 years later. From my viewpoint, you do need some technical skill to validate (and explain) your conclusions. The only other point of contention was Phar Lap’s career. I don’t think i ever referred to Phar Lap in any other terms than ‘legendary’. Trying nothing more than to de-mythologise Phar Lap’s career with facts. unfortunately, i missed the opportunity, through a lack of interrogation, to point to Phar Lap’s Secretariat-type performances of speed and domination. I was never concerned about the fluff of his magic week or his caliente win. There were other amazing performances, capturing my attention. As for Aransan’s suggestion that i focused on Phar Lap’s early career defeats is wrong. To be plain. My observations suggest crookedness was involved in his early defeats not a lack of ability. They got their price in his maiden win at his fifth start. Then came unstuck three starts into hos new prep. From then on, Phar Lap was treated like a serious horse, beginning an ambitious Derby campaign, given his displayed form. There was a saying i learned early in my racing-trade career. ‘your first good horse should buy your house. Your second good horse should buy your stables …’. Ultimately, we don’t know what happened early in his career and it is a guess on my part.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
You really come out swinging don't you? There was no need for that. You have generated much heat and only limited light. My heroes are Isaac Newton, Hilbert, Ramanujan, Charles Darwin. I have studied Maxwell. Important books that I have read include: "The Neutral Theory of Molecular Evolution" by Motoo Kimura "Neanderthal Man: In Search of Lost Genomes" by Svante Paabo I will conclude my part in this "discussion" with the following points: 1) Winx is our greatest horse of all time. An important legacy is the very high level of performance that she achieved over a period of 4 years where great credit should be given to her trainer, Chris Waller, his team and Winx's connections. 2) It won't be possible to get an accurate international rating for Winx as she hasn't raced against the world's best horses -- that is no fault of Winx. 3) You have focussed too much on Phar Lap's early failures. He raced during the depression, owners would have been reluctant to have nominated their horses against him if they had little chance of getting their nomination fee back, hence the small fields -- that is no fault of Phar Lap. After his initial failures his only subsequent unplaced run was in the Melbourne Cup carrying the grandstand. 4) You have referred to a highly technical, academic paper on thoroughbred breeding, I have followed this paper to the extent necessary to conclude that it does not support your theory on the breeding of thoroughbreds. That is the end of my part in this "discussion". It would seem that we each have a much lower assessment of the other than we had to start with and that is a pity.
kv joef
Roar Guru
You are truly confusing me ... Aransan, just for the record, my acedamic heroes are Maxwell, Faraday and Shannon. In the spirit of Shannon i say to you ... 'you ask the wrong questions'. Replying to what you have just written. (aransan) The DNA pool for any species is not set in concrete, there are mutations and crossing overs between chromosomes ... we could by selective breeding breed superior ... (KV - previous to your comment, i wrote) ' ...they have tried to inject new blood (quarter-horses, bloodshorses, arabs) ... lasts a few generations and is gone ... Concerning selective breeding … always been that way … i have reference material for that going back into the 1700s detailing theories and the breeding practicalities ... The thoroughbred DNA structure (gene pool) SEEMS set in concrete. POSSIBLY there might be a gene MUTATION that could survive? Currently, none have survived the distance. ' (KV dna-extra) - most jurisdictions let cross-breeds (any breed) race in country areas but not in blk-type, classics, nor are they registered in the studbook (described as 'unknown'). if they last 5 gens in a pedigree, then they get the nod and a name - they do track them --- i remember watching both full and half-bred quarters horses race in the Hunter Valley ... they could go quick ... for about 10 metres - think one did ok in those QLD country 700-800m 'purse' races during the 70s.) (aransan) ... If we wanted to we could breed for coat colour, not that it would make sense but it could be done... (KV) Don't be so presumptious. if you did your research you may slightly modify your opinion. either way you might be curious to realise that the overwhelming majority of stallions in japan are blk/brwn. by your comment it seems you have read or heard of Tesio's book without reading incisa (deR) book - mistake, he was crafty fella that tesio, liked sublties, crosswords etc. (aransan) ... we should be more prepared to accept the analysis of those horses by experts of that time ... (KV) concerning handicapping, this is the silliest thing you have ever written. knowledge will progress replacing previously held beliefs, unstable hypothesis' of the past are rectified, 'scientific laws' remain because they stand scrunity until they don't! (aransan)'...The amount of information at your disposal for analysing horses 80 and 90 years ago is limited ...' (KV) Concerning resources - formguides have always behind around. The Daily Racing Form started in 1894 (Wiki). Racing magazines have always existed, including the industry racing calenders from around the globe going back to the year dot. i was sadden deeply when my extensive collection of accumulated racing material was destroyed by a flood while in storage when i was overseas. Newspaper reporting (before TV) was reasonably accurate as well as pristine photography. in short, if you have a will ... in today's information age, it would take all of $10,000 (probably less) to assememble an extensive global DB that went back 80 years relative detail with another 50 years of Black-type before that ... unless you know someone who has one. you would be surprised how many are around for various uses. available on the web for small subscription fees (and free) are digitised (global) newspapers Dbs, racing form DBs, digitised historical information, images of this and that. Really all that is required is Black-type results - Race Conds / dist / weight/ age/ margins between placegetters. That would get you through. For a more sophisticated understanding, backfit the blacktype races using 2 methods of a selected sub-set of a generation (3 years eg 1929-1932). holding out a test sample on either side. Once you have established a rep.number, move the racing generation algorithm forward, as you bring the numbers from the next sub-gen. (10 years on - max racing age) back to eventually intergrate the two and where they cross over ... and well, it better make sense. If it doesn't make sense, start again. It isn't as simple as that, but not far away from it, as you have to track the thoroughbred specialisation, sorry selective breeding, but that can be done so the model stands-up through time. Takes a long time but you learn a lot. You actually see when the fundelmentals of the game change and how they change. While starting with individual countries, next begin to look for the 'binders' to start a comparison EG looking 70's racing in Australia, Europe and U.S, we have Balmerino and Strawberry Road from an AU perspective etc. before that we had Tobin Bronze and Sailors Guide (Tulloch ref :-)) before that Shannon (Bernborough ref) ... and it goes on. Horse against horse - weight against weight. I've seen models that use regression and 'weighting' methods. Never been much of a fan of either - i don't 'weight' my numbers. Regression explains what you should already know ... weighting tries to explain what you don't know. Both can be deadly in unsophisitcated hands. The recreational punters of today, have never had it so good. For normal day-to-day racing activities, all they need is understanding of some common-sense rules, number-form, race-details (jock-trainer-barrier etc), access to general stats, 'market' odds and ranking combined with a money-management system to cope with variations. MOST importantly a journal - write down what you are doing and why - then review - anyway, do that and RecPunter should have a lot of fun and not cause much damage. As you rise up the scale ... a bit more skill is involved. For Aransan ... Now, i know you have read my stuff going back quite a few years and always had a bit of sarcastic dispute to my viewpoint - good on ya. Like above, regurgitating this and that (colour) for whatever reason, i don't know why ... your problem not mine. The only reason i've continued this exchange is for others so they have a broad platform example for developing their own investigation style. not for you as i know, your views seem set in concrete. I've already given you a rating-range from that silly comment about the 'speed of a falling object' a couple of years back. How did you go with the new Euro WFA scale? Anyway, good punting. If you are looking for a bookmaker i'll see what i can do.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
The DNA pool for any species is not set in concrete, there are mutations and crossing overs between chromosomes. However, even if the DNA pool for thoroughbreds was set in concrete it would still be possible through selective breeding to increase the performance of horses in a particular manner. If we wanted to we could breed for coat colour, not that it would make sense but it could be done. If we have a group of horses who are very good runners over 6f to a mile we could by selective breeding breed superior 6f horses who couldn't run a mile and vice versa. I accept that you are very good at providing advice to punters in contemporary racing based on your handicapping and racing knowledge. The amount of information at your disposal for analysing horses 80 and 90 years ago is limited and we should be more prepared to accept the analysis of those horses by experts of that time.
kv joef
Roar Guru
thx again for your kind words JB. Yes i was the same way. when she looped them on the turn i started to choke up as i realised one of the greatest racing experiences i have ever had was coming to end. at my age, i know i will never see her like again ... but i seen it ... every beautiful step.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Your quote ... " ...I wouldn’t try to do an analysis on the weight Phar Lap carried in 31 and the distance he was beaten by. As they say, weight will stop a train — not just slow it down. ..." Really ... "weight will stop a train" ... yes. that's what i've be saying. All horses have performance ceilings. Really ... "not just slow it down" ... yes I think i know to to identify the difference. do you? I thought, pretty funny you telling me how to handicap/rate horses. You know nothing about me. Again, I made factual statement about how assessors from the past understood performances at that time (1931). That is how they understood performance well into the 70's. Ever read Rem Plante's book from the late 50's? Anyway, I've never discussed how i do numbers, nor will i but hopefully, for me, it remains effective. But you tell me what I can and can't do? wifay? You have offered zero evidence to support your rebuttal just supposition. You showed some nonsense from the web ... ana i showed you the race to prove he was lying or at best he a had created a false memory. As for that shortlist - wrong order under 'Red' for what he's got but quite a few missing. What i do here (roar) is try and show practical examples of how recreational punters might successfully handicap races using freely available data. I've previously stated my reasons for this strategy. I do it in advance (article or comment) to prove that i am not a hindsight-judge. And I've done it over a long period of time (5 years). So, this disection of PL's form may show insights on they way i look at raw form. I bet you have learned a whole lot about Phar Lap / Peter Pan since this thread started and maybe even how to look at Winx's career before you decide its value. For the interested reader, in our chat (and article) they might see examples of how to pull form to peices. How they might understand it. Things that can profile a horse. Anyway back to Phar Lap ... What we know is that Phar Lap carried 9st 12lbs over 2 miles to victory. He may have been able to carry more than ... we don't know. What we do know, is the handicapper got it wrong in 1931. The horse couldn't do it. You wrote - "He was still rated one stone above Peter Pan" ... YES, THE HANDICAPPER GOT IT WRONG - THE RESULT PROVED IT. HE DIDN'T GET CLOSE. I think (from memory) that no horse since Phar Lap has been given more than 10st 5lbs (Carbine's winning weight). Peter Pan got that weight in '35, an admission that the handicapper realised he screwed up. Yes, and i do know why he screwed up. WFA form can be tricky to understand/interpret. It is not as simple as hcp-work. Difficult but do-able. PL did carry 10st 3lbs to victory over 7f. You know that distance he kept getting beat at as a young horse. 10-3 is the highest weight he ever carried to victory. WHY? because he mainly started in set-weight events ... saved you the trouble. As for his early career ... I can see what happen. it stands out like a beacon. Surely you can. Hint ... what price was he when he won his Rosehill maiden ... what price was he in those other early defeats except that 4th (unlucky no doubt - sacked the jock). I did mention that novel cardgame when writing about those unplaced efforts. i did mention that i couldn't explain half of them, i did mention i would need to see the vision. i don't know what you were talking about but i knew what i was talking about. Another PL fact for you, Billy Elliot after multiple rides, is the only jockey to be undefeated on him 7-0. The thoroughbred DNA structure (gene pool) seems set in concrete. Possibly there might be a gene mutation that could survive? Currently, none have survived the distance. Lot of work going on in this area. Google it - might start with Trinity College (as usual). I reinterate 30% pedigree / 70% external influence is the current hypothesis. It's similar to people saying 'some drugs make horses run faster'. No, they don't - they can't run any faster than nature intended i.e DNA = nature. things you are talking about can't change the DNA, can't make them run faster then nature intended. Basic, I know, but true. And so the lesson ends for today. How about this, I watching a Youtube podcast on irish racing, bit of a laugh etc, and they get aidan o'brien as a guest talking about this and that, really insightful as usual. They get to the end of the cast and ask him half jokingly ... 'Anything good going around on the weekend? you don't have to tell us its name, just hint or .." O'Brien interrupts and in his usual honest manner says " ... or no that's ok. We have an American Pharoah colt going on the weekend. real nice horse. should do well." That was Monarch Of Egypt on Sat night at Naas - walked in - evens. Find gems in the strangest places.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
I have got Phar Lap wrong in running in the 32 Cup instead of the 31 Cup. He was still rated one stone above Peter Pan by the handicapper in 31 than Peter Pan was in 34. You have concentrated too heavily on Phar Lap's early career losses, his reputation is based on what he did after that. I wouldn't try to do an analysis on the weight Phar Lap carried in 31 and the distance he was beaten by. As they say, weight will stop a train -- not just slow it down. I am still digesting your references on breeding, so far I can see nothing that supports your opinion that there has been no improvement in performance due to breeding.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Stats have let me down? WTF. Everything I've written is accurate. Not filtered to validate an opinion. BTW, they didn't race each other. Pher Lap won the 1930 Cup and finished down the track in 1931 behind White Nose. Now PL had excuses as the early pace was woeful but according to reports he was beaten before the turn but watch for yourself ... Link to Phar Lap's 1931 Cup - (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZMuIXaQqVs) ... you can pick him up as the come past the stand the first time, he is 3 wide about 4L off the pace pulling his head off - that's not unusual for him. He is a monster isn't he? Of those early unplaced runs 4 were 7f/1m in v.average restricted company and you would have thought him to be mildly competitive in that company. Just a reminder that Winx was career unplaced only 3 times in a 6 week period before her Au Oaks 2nd. CWaller has said many times he got her early stuff wrong. So i'll give Harry Telford the benefit of the doubt. PLap captured everybody's attention when he ran fourth in the Warwick Stakes (sorry it is called the Winx Stakes now) followed that with a 2nd in the Chelmsford behind the aforementioned mollison. Who he beat later in that prep. From then he launched into 14 months of racing domination that will forever be legendary. My point was that a critical analysis of his career does show pointers to his limitation, a ceiling. Here is a link to Peter Pan's 1932 Cup Win ... the one where he stumbled ... the won where at the furlong was lengths behind Yarramba (7st3lbs) already being called the winner and PP given no chance ... how wrong they were. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ5y-W0e36Y BTW Yarramba won the Williamstown Cup (Sand.Cup equiv.) two weeks later leaving Compris, Denis Boy, Shadow King in his wake. Back to Phar Lap ('31), if we take his beaten margin, say 8L but probably more than that, and using that time's style of handicapping (1L = 1.5lb) then PL would return a reduction of 12lbs bringing his performance weight back to 9st 12lbs ... the same weight he carried to victory in the 1930 Cup ... how about that. spooky heh? And yes Peter Pan did carry 9st 10lbs in 1934 on a bottomless heavy track ... he won by panels ... heaven knows what weight he could have carried ... did i mention he had the outside draw ... did I mention he was only ridden hands and heels ... and it was a pretty strong Cup field too, actually really strong ... anyway here is a newsreel vid of the event - great snippet - great history - great horse ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06pZYRZaG8A He goes alright doesn't he?
Aransan
Roar Rookie
This is just a quick reply to your comment: "Some interesting PHAR LAP facts. Are you aware, by chance, that Phar Lap either competed in fields of less than 7 or 10-or-more starters. Interestingly, in the field-size 10-or-more he had 18 starts for 6 wins and 9 (50%) unplaced efforts. Now half of those defeats i could dismiss for this-and-that reasons but half i can’t, as i cannot access creditable vision of those races." Statistics have let you down here, it is well known that Phar Lap was slow starting his career. Yes, he was unplaced in 9 starts but 8 unplaced runs occurred in his first 9 starts, after that his only unplaced run was in the 1932 Melbourne Cup when he carried 10st 10lb (68KG), the winner was the 3y.o. Peter Pan carrying 7st 6lb (47.2kg). Peter Pan was only given 9st 10lb (61.7kg) when he won the 1934 Cup -- the handicapper of the day rated him a full stone (6.35kg) inferior to Phar Lap. A simple explanation for the small fields that Phar Lap raced in is the belief by many that they couldn't beat him. Some of the fields that Winx raced in would have been pretty small if they hadn't been boosted by stablemates and I don't hold that against Winx. I will take some time to digest your breeding references.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Both those link-articles are sloppy. With respect, i've been around a few horses over the last 50 years. concerning quality, show me the numbers and/or let me have a look at the horse actually race and I'll form an opinion and see if the performance numbers match it. Out of yesterday's racing I thought the japanese horse was fantastic. just watch him in the vid. Pins his ears back and charges flat-tack until he gets to the 100m and then he is stuffed and runs up the white-flag. you can seen him slow, exhausted, but he didn't quit. What a little hero ... he's got a fan in me. Again, it is not the race name or the winning margin, it is the quality of the opposition. My own racing maxim is ... "you don't know what a good horse is, until you know what good horses do.". Concerning the 1932 Aqua Caliente ... the best horses in the U.S. at the time weren't there - not one - and included Equipoise, Twenty Grand, Mate, Jamestown and of coarse, Gallant Sir who was to win the next two Caliente's, (1933) breaking Phar Lap's race-record and again equaling PL's time in 1934. Strangely enough, after that they canned the race. Later, re-instated twice more to be won by the champions Sea Biscuit (1938) and Round Table (1958). Revillie Boy, 2nd to PLap in Mexico, main claim to fame was a hometown 1930 (upset) win in Chicago's American Derby (a good race) and placings in a few 'state' Derbys. Not a lot of significant black-type after that. He won about a quarter of his 100 starts. Here's the link to the PL's Caliente for interested readers ... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bROtR5ivyZw) Some interesting PHAR LAP facts. Are you aware, by chance, that Phar Lap either competed in fields of less than 7 or 10-or-more starters. Interestingly, in the field-size 10-or-more he had 18 starts for 6 wins and 9 (50%) unplaced efforts. Now half of those defeats i could dismiss for this-and-that reasons but half i can't, as i cannot access creditable vision of those races. Maybe they were playing silly-buggers. Impressively, PLap was undefeated in 10 starts between 9.5f (Cox Plate) and 10f but he only competed against a grand total of 44 starters. Winx won 10/11 at the distance. She has beaten 85 individual Group One winners ... dodged nothing. May seem I am bagging Phar Lap's greatness. I am not. he is a racing legend although, I would point to another part of his career as an better indicator of his equine scariness. Personally, I rate Peter Pan v.v.v.close and know he would have given Phar Lap a serious contest. He was unlucky to race in PL's shadow, then suffer a debilitating sickness between his two Cup wins that again recurred in 1935 meaning his race-record finished softer than it should have been as they kept him going. Up to his sickness he had won 9 of 12 including a Cup when barely 3 years old. PLap ran 3rd as a 3 year-old. maybe leave more of that discussion to later. Concerning the Genome. I managed to re-find one of the best racing-history sites on the web. Their 'genetics' section link below includes links to research and academic papers. Follow the references on those docs for more info. http://www.tbheritage.com/GenMarkers.html Concerning physicality. I was careful choosing my time-frame (170 years). I have an image-library of many thousands of 'good' horses going way back into the 1800s. preceding that ... image-portraits of champions, you can see the 'arab-rump' disappearing. And from around the 1850-to-80's to current, i'm looking at horses that could have walking around the ring yesterday. Concerning selective breeding ... always been that way ... i have reference material for that going back into the 1700s detailing theories and the breeding practicalities of that time. I wanted to know why they did what they did and where/why trends started. Coolmore (Ballydoyle) have built a dynasty on purifying the Nearco-Nearatic-Nothern Dancer line. And look at the racehorses and stallions/mares they are producing. Anyway, all good stuff. Following is a written description of Peter Pan's 1932 Cup win " ... the 1932 Melbourne Cup, Peter Pan, carrying Billy Duncan, was travelling at the rear of the pack when he clipped the heels of the horse in front and fell to his knees. Running behind him was his stablemate Dennis Boy, who bumped the champion back onto his feet. From there, Peter Pan raced past the pack to take out the race by a neck. When he was led into the winner's circle, a grass stain was clearly visible on his face ... " Now that's a racehorse. Just like the mare ... 'you aren't going to beat me'.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
The "missing links" are: http://www.jockeysite.com/stories/analisismundo.htm and https://www.si.com/vault/1959/11/09/599992/the-question-which-was-the-greatest-race-horse-of-all-time
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Thanks kv joef for your usual considered response. Google gives a couple of interesting links: “MARSHALL CASSIDY Vice-president and Director of Racing New York Racing Association The Australian horse, Phar Lap. In his only North American race I saw Phar Lap do what I have never seen any other horse do. He stood rigid at the starting gate until the field was 15 lengths ahead of him. After making up 12 lengths, he circled 60 feet outside and ran away with the race.” I have previously compared Winx’s win in the 2017 Cox Plate with that victory by Phar Lap. Yesterday’s victory was also better than it looked, if a jockey is riding a $1.05 favourite they won’t take any chances and that was an extravagant ride as it should have been to maximise her chances of winning, not to win by the greatest possible margin or the fastest time. Another interesting link: In one way you are wrong about the genome and it is to do with what breeding is all about. With selective breeding the modern merino sheep has a much heavier fleece than their forbears, elite sheep are also bred for the fineness of their wool. Modern wheat varieties are significantly improved on their ancestors and this hasn’t just occurred through cross breeding. Modern cows have much higher milk production — no doubt the diet has improved, but the continual efforts to improve the breed have been successful. There are many examples in agriculture, some not necessarily to our advantage such as increasing shelf life for supermarkets. Horses of Phar Lap’s generation were more versatile than the modern thoroughbred, the modern horse is like a finely tuned Ferrari — improved performances over a narrower range of distances. I remember Peter Moody saying how the conformation of the thoroughbred has changed in his lifetime, among other things the horses used to be bigger boned. Thank you for your response and I always look forward to anything you write. (The links come up when I try to edit but don’t come up otherwise.)
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Great reply about Winx KV I’m a big man but actually cried knowing I won’t see her again cheers for ur efforts in writing these articles it takes time and I appreciate that as I’m sure fellow roarers do but don’t comment I’ve been punting all my life I’m 38 and I go ok but seriously how do I obtain smarts like u or is it just a gift? Anyways cheers mate please keep these articles coming I’m so passionate about racing and it’s great to read /learn from the best ????
kv joef
Roar Guru
Hi Aransan, nice to hear from you again. (this comment post is hellishly long but you raised some points that need addressing and it seems we can’t format it like previous days – sorry ) so with a few things to explain onward … Were you aware that ‘Lightning’ won the Cox Plate, not rated that highly then, the Saturday before that Cup-week beating the handy Tregilla who he also defeated in the Melbourne Stakes (Mackinnon) on the first day of his magic week. Also note during his ‘week’ I think, the number of starters, including Phar Lap, the Mac Stks (5/6) … the Cup (only 15), the Linlithgow (then 1600m – 5) and the final race, the CB Fisher (Queen Elizabeth only 3). The most interesting race was the Linlithgow. Two of his oppoents were Mollison and the champion Amounis. Both, as aged horses, were at the ends of long and distinguished careers. Amounis, twice defeated Phar Lap, although in both PL was FUp. He was retired after Linlithgow and Mollison the next Autumn without winning again although performing well. The myth has grown about the Aqua Caliente but you are aware that America’s best horses didn’t race in that contest. It was a good ‘West-Coast’ field with a lot of hollywood-hype as at the time West-Coast racing was reguarded as inferior to the East-Coast, similar to generally comparing QLD to Victoria or NSW and like QLD produce a few quality animals each year but on average are a lesser standard. What blew everyone away was how he did it. Amazing, just like a few of Winx’s wins … ‘impossible, she can’t win from there’ … oh yes she can … again and again and again. Ske has what all ‘Legends’ have – blinding accerleration (10 sec furlongs) and the ability to cope with a high cruising speed. Anyaway back to PL, it was not uncommon for horses to run in the Mackinnon, Cup and CB Fisher Plate and that was still happening when I entered the game during the 70’s. Things were so different in Phar Lap’s time … training, feed, approach, tracks, handling, ‘medication’ … I do have reference material. Modern trainers do it so much better now on all fronts. But, ultimately it still comes down to one thing … horse against horse. The thoroughbred you are dealing with has been the same for 170 years. The Genome says it is. The last noticeable inclusion to the Thoroughbred Genome was estimated to come from U.S. in the late 1800’s but basically they all come from 140 mares and handful of stallions. Everytime they have tried to inject new blood (quarter-horses, bloodshorses, arabs), and they have tried, it lasts a few generations and is gone – it slows them and eventually the line is discarded as breeding stock. With that in mind, current research suggests that 30% of performance comes from bloodlines and 70% from training (inc education etc). Little hint of why I seem to focus so much on trainers. Against popular nonsense about not being able to compare horses across generations, logic dictates that racehorse generations continually merge into each other. Continually move between countries and that has been going on as long as the game itself. There are always reference points and always have been. horse against horse, weight against weight (Pittsburg Phil 1908) I’ve written about how the Australian thoroughbred was popular in the U.S preceeding the 60’s. In fact, the U.S. has always been a comparison centre for horses from around the world since the late 1800s and still is today. If think Timeform ratings go back to the 1940s but IMHO, they are not a genuine performance guide. As an aside to this serious discussion, My fantasy race would have seen Ribot against Frankel over 2000m and see who would have rated 141 ???? . Yes I know … that they rate individual race performance but that type of rubbish allows Arrogate to judged the best horse in the world. Winx would have laughed at him. She would have got to him at the 200m and that would have been the cream-puff’s day. He was fast but that’s all. I already have Winx’s rating range but we have to wait a little while to she how the next merge measures up … horse like Brutal, Dreamforce, see if Benbattl hols form (he will – good horse), etc etc. You are aware that Winx has competed against at least 10 horses, beating some several times, that were rating 120+ (elite thoroughbreds) and that figure each year isolates about 50 new entries to the list, as others retire. The ‘elite’ list usually stands about 70, all from a world racing population of 500,000+. Winx dosen’t have to prove anything … the northern hemisphere handicappers have to prove why she was never given her a true proven number when at her peak a season and half ago instead of their BS 130/132 … garbage. Anyway she has made them look incompenent … good girl. My bottom-end of her range starts at the equivilant of their 132. Again sorry for the long post and typo’s. i’ll speak to a friend and get them to create a blog where important discussions link this can be expanded.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Well done JB. Thought Jamie Kah rode Midterm beautifully but surprisingly he didn't stay ... but Shraaod did :-) .
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Woo hoo very Eleganty won got my $ back and then some KV
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Another good article. Dubhe is of course a three year old by northern hemisphere time. I am prepared to accept that Winx is Australia's greatest all time horse, but no modern thoroughbred would be capable of matching Phar Lap's Melbourne Cup week -- the breed has changed. My own theory is that there has been little improvement in sprinters over the last century but that is not true for middle distance and staying horses. What do you think? Do you believe you can calculate an accurate world rating for Winx given that she hasn't raced against the world's best horses? Surely her rating must have a significant range of uncertainty. There is no denying that Waller has been fantastic in keeping her at the level she has been over the last four years. Perhaps our racing clubs have been derelict in not making a sufficient effort to attract world class horses to compete against her.