October 1, 2000. Sydney had just hosted an Olympics for the ages.
Australia excelled in the medal count, taking 16 gold for fourth place on the final tally, behind only Russia, China and the USA.
It was hard to think of a sport at which Australia did not excel during those halcyon days.
The Wallabies were world champions in rugby union, after an emphatic victory at the 1999 World Cup, and the team would go on to beat the British Lions in 2001.
The Aussie men dominated the cricket world. The likes of Lleyton Hewitt and Pat Rafter were world-class tennis players.
The Diamonds were an almost unstoppable force. The Opals and Hockeyroos were world benchmarks. Both the men’s and women’s swimmers challenged the might of the USA.
Ian Thorpe (Image: Wikimedia Commons/xiaming CC BY-SA 2.0)
Fast forward to 2019 and what has gone wrong since those glory days? Australia’s trophy cabinet now resembles a discarded plastic cigarette covering.
Our returns at the 2016 Rio Olympics yielded a medal tally half that of Sydney. We are no longer world champions in cricket, netball and rugby – and, arguably, no longer world-class in the latter.
Except for Ash Barty and her recent feats, Australian tennis has had little to cheer about. The two male players capable of being world-class in terms of talent have not stepped up.
Swimming has struggled to find a new generation of champions.
While football has not yet excelled on the world stage, at least the Socceroos used to be full of players in Europe’s top flight. We are still waiting for the next Harry Kewell or Tim Cahill to arrive.
The answer to this decline is underwritten by one common denominator: mortgage stress.
In 1995, the price to household income ratio was approximately 4:1. Fast forward 20 or so years, that number has doubled – even more so in Melbourne and Sydney.
It is a bit hard to fund Johnny or Jill’s sporting journey when household budgets are consumed by $900,000 mortgages. Who can afford the coaches and equipment?
It is not just the cost, it is the fact that parents are so time poor and exhausted with work commitments to pay down these massive mortgages.
Even registration fees for more affordable options, such as the football codes, are a strain. A sport such as karate, for example, is upwards of $15 for a 30-minute session.
The decline in participation since 2001 resembles a falling arrow. A 2017 study found rugby union has suffered a massive 63 per cent decline. Tennis was down 35 per cent, netball 24 per cent and other sports, such as rugby league and cricket, had also suffered losses.
With the rising costs of living, underpinned by wage stagnation and mortgages that resemble the GDP of small countries, it is hard to see any change in these trends. If anything, things will get worse before they get better.
The iPad has certainly had a role in all this, no doubt. However, we cannot pretend that the decline is purely because of the rise of fewer physical options for children.
Justin Kearney
Roar Rookie
Then why is the competition so poor and why are the athletes that play afl so uncoordinated?
Brad H
Roar Rookie
PJ, Yes, 100% right. The Olympics is aware of this and have brought these sports in to the Olympic movement.
Matt Simpson
Roar Guru
Hey Brad, id be hesitant to compare populations to participation across times as the population has aged and demographic changes. Whilst I agree the sport is expensive, id also point out that there is less physical activity in school curriculam, and general play has declined due to perceptions of safety, risk, and urban design. I think you also need to consider the changing nature of sport, for example the continued rise of extreme sports. I personally also think we have been hurt by moving away from the centralised AIS model, and perhaps the rest of the world catching up with us.
Kashmir Pete
Roar Guru
Brad I happen to concur with at least half of your essay, and don't dispute the other half. To limited to detail here, but IMO the cost of a 'roof' is Australia's biggest economic problem. 3 basic human materials needs: food, clothing, shelter, but few go hungry or naked in this country. The financial and emotional security, of owning your own roof, is a shrinking memory for too many. Thanks for article. KP
anon
Roar Pro
You're right all our best ball athletes gravitate to AFL.
PJ
Guest
Thanks for the article - while the mortgage argument oversimplifies the discussion somewhat (I would argue there are many factors at play), rising household costs and stagnant wages absolutely have an impact on discretionary income and where/how that money is spent. Sport and physical activity can be expensive and there are plenty of substitute leisure activities to choose from. What needs to acknowledged here is the rising popularity of 'lifestyle' sport and physical activity that occurs outside of traditional sport structures and funding. Surfing, skate-boarding, mountain-biking and cross-training are attractive activities because you don't necessarily have to join a club, pay registration fees or volunteer for the canteen or BBQ in order to participate.
Brad H
Roar Rookie
Hi Marcus, You make some good points. Unorganised sports is a big skill builder. For example, kids who play touch footy or basketball with their friends every afternoon after school develop their talents. Soccer and basketball has risen. The AFL has actually only increased 1% in participants since 2001. One thing I should have highlighted better in my article is that participation numbers in organised sport across the board have dropped 7% while the population has increased by more than 30%.
Brad H
Roar Rookie
Hi “The Bear”, Great observation. It fits in with the premise of my article. Part of the expensive fees structure at many of these private schools include professional coaching to play in competitive sporting competitions and pathways. Comprehensive state schools can’t offer the same pathway opportunities and can’t compete with the private schools resources that are at their disposal. The exception to this would be the state sports high schools. Nevertheless, the sports high schools offer school places based upon talent displayed in competitions organised outside of school. In other words, existing participants already in competitive and organised sport.
Brad H
Roar Rookie
Hi Anon, Yes, you are right. However, Serbian tennis and Brazilian football do not have to compete with half a dozen or more other major sports like the Australian context for the best athletes.
Brad H
Roar Rookie
Hi Peter, You have completely missed the central premise of my article. Pathways and talent development is, of course, a factor. I am not denying this. However, the amount of cream that flows to the top is contingent on the cream in the mix. A drop in the number of sporting participants, due to costs being a prohibitive cost, leads to less talented kids capable Of progressing along an elite sporting pathway. But apparently I am a “wood duck”, what would I know...
Brad H
Roar Rookie
Hi Max, You make a good point about other countries. I’m sure there have been funding increases overseas, leading to better facilities, retention of athletes and the hiring of well qualified people in their pathway programs. What I am pointing out in my article is that the calibre of athlete that Australia used to produce at the elite level has dropped across the board. Less participants leads to smaller talent pools to put into pathways.
Brad H
Roar Rookie
Dear Phil, Yes, I do. I didn’t want the article to be too loaded with data to support my hypothesis. In 2001, Australia’s population was 19.15 million. Now, in 2019, it is 25.1 million. That is a population increase of 31.6%. Participation numbers, not percentage of participants in the population, has dropped across most sports during this time. There were approximately 4.2 million participants in all organised sport in Australia in 2001. That number dropped to 3.9 million by 2016, representing a drop of 7%. Median age from 1998-2018 increased only marginally, from 35 years to 37 years. The costs per season for some sports per person is something, in hindsight, I should have embedded in the article. Here is a snapshot: Golf: $1641 Swimming: $1559 Tennis: $1381 Cricket: $1142 Softball: $909 Athletics: $878 Rugby Union: $790 Hockey: $828 Basketball: $735 Aussie Rules: $565 Touch Football: $490 Netball: $435 Rugby League: $342 (These figures exclude travel expenses) Price to earnings ratio in Australia between 1995 to present has increased from approximately 4:1 to 8:1. This ratio is higher in Sydney. The NSW Government has issued $100 vouchers to help support costs for sport to families for children’s participation.
The Bear
Guest
"It was hard to think of a sport at which Australia did not excel during those halcyon days." Curling, European Handball, Badminton, Cross Country Skiing.... But seriously you look at all the state schools track and field, swimming and other individual competitions, they are generally dominated by the private schools. There are very few state schooler's who make are in the upper echelon of these sports. I know people will say that most of the elite athletes are on scholarship at the private schools. But with about 65% of kids at state schools, based on these results, the sports pathways/organisation from state schools must be very poor.
anon
Roar Pro
The best soccer players in the world are from Brazil. The best tennis player of the past 50 years grew up in war torn Serbia
Marcus
Guest
At least we look to be improving in archery. Cos that is an admirably long bow you have drawn. Without getting too serious, there would be a lag of, say 10-20 years between a particular time of mortgage stress, which led to decreased family spending on sport at junior levels, then comes the lag time, then comes the drop in elite performance. If anything, kids are probably doing more organised activities than ever, but it is being spread around further (nothing to back this up). It is likely the drop in "unorganised activity" that is affected by the rise in technology use. I think you might find there has been big rises in the likes of soccer/netball/basketball participation, and AFL just keeps on growing.
Peter Bowman
Guest
The destruction of the Australian Institute of Sport by the Australian Sports Commission since 2000 was one of the main reasons for Australia's huge decline. The AIS was the flagship of the State institutes of Sport which all competed against each other to achieve the best results-----good healthy competition. Mortgage stress has nothing to do with producing champions --- just look at the great track and field athletes from third world countries some with bullets flying over their heads.These academics wood ducks should should stick to real economics. Peter Bowman
mds1970
Roar Guru
No doubt it's a factor. I'm sure there's plenty of kids who don't play sport because their parents can't afford the fees or equipment.
Aiden
Guest
I've got another theory. The key differentiating factor is electro music. It's not all bad, but therre is way too much of it on the airwaves. It means that our kid's struggle to get quite as pumped before a game, and the drop off in performance is telling. Back when JJJ played lots of West Australian and Sydney centric indie rock ... it was much better. For our youth.
Phil
Guest
Any data to support or disprove this hypothesis? Or have you just picked two things that have changed over the last twenty years and leaped to a conclusion?
Max power
Guest
I’m sure mortgage stress is only a small part of the equation Continuesd economic development in developinj countries and the increased funding in our major competitors are the major reasons