The commentary from the Australian media about former NRL star Valentine Holmes’ NFL debut has blown his efforts out of proportion.
His debut was labeled ‘impressive’ and ‘solid’, but in truth his on-field output left a lot to be desired.
Not to take anything away from Holmes; even participating in an NFL preseason game is a feat in and of itself, but if we’re to look at his play from a purely gridiron perspective – it was pretty average.
Holmes entered the game in the fourth quarter, playing with the Jets’ fourth string offense, and against the Giants fourth string defence (for context the majority of these players will not make it to the 53 man roster for either teams).
He ran the ball three times for six yards, with an average of two yards per carry, the lowest average for any of the Jets’ running backs.
It was obvious that his running style was too upright, and it looked like he lacked the explosive power and acceleration that many of the league\’s best running backs have.
He also wasn’t able to lower his pads and fight through the Giant’s defensive front at the line of scrimmage, getting caught behind the line for a loss of yards on his second run.
He proved better in the passing game with three receptions for 30 yards. Again, preseason NFL is in no way representative of regular season football. The space he was allowed would have been closed down immensely quicker in a real game.
His most impressive play, a 14 yard catch and run, ended in Holmes being crunched in the open field by Giants defensive back Kenny Ladler (a player who has failed to cement his place on a roster since arriving in the league in 2014). Holmes looked as if he didn’t anticipate Ladler’s speed and instead of lowering his pads and bracing for contact he left himself – and the ball – in a vulnerable position. A big no-no in the NFL.
So although Holmes was able to hold his own against a bunch of mid-tier to below average players, any conclusions that he can be an effective NFL player will need to be subverted until he is tested against a better quality opposition.
LHK
Roar Rookie
I think it was probably better than Hayne's too. Hayne's route running was v poor. But I don't think comparing Holmes to Hayne is good because Hayne isn't a good barometer of a good running back. I think we should assess Holmes like teams would, against other running backs. And that's why I thought he was average because watching the preseason he didn't jump of the screen like alot of other running backs did. I thought Holmes receiving was his best quality, but again he wasn't asked to do much. This goes further to my point, that if you're a gm building your team what did you see from Holmes that cements a place on your roster? Holmes needs to be really impressive in next couple of games. Catching out of the backfield isn't a unique skill for a rb. And Holmes doesn't have 1-3 years of college tape for teams to get a read on him. So what he puts on film in the next 3 weeks will be the extent that the Jets can judge him.
piru
Roar Rookie
I think that's a little harsh, given the opportunities he was given I think he did well. He took some (was it 3?) passes on the edge and made reasonable yards after, yes he got creamed but he didn't drop the ball. His rushing wasn't spectacular to watch, but it didn't look to me like the O line was helping much. No RB is going to do well in that situation
Rellum
Roar Guru
I thought his game was better than Haynes first in a way. Hayne got to punt return which was easy in regards to what comes natural to him and go a few good blocks to break into the open. Holmes did a lot of receiving and looks good doing that plus I though his couple of carries were good for what was in front of him.
lewl
Guest
PFF aren't really 'about' stats, though - not in the traditional way, or close to that though. It's a bit of a misunderstanding about what they do. They grade based on film study - snap by snap, what the player did and how successful they were at it. It's the reason their grades can sometimes look radically different to box score stats, for example. Anyway yeah, Holmes is obviously going to need to do more - he did just about all he could do in that situation, hopefully that earns him the chance for more snaps / against more than 3rd stringers (no chance he gets snaps against starters... just not happening, and probably not needed - but needs time vs 2nd string) / special teams opportunities (which are absolutely necessary for any chance whatsoever). As far as his running goes, it was ok. Just ok. That's not really what will get him into the team, as long as it doesn't get exposed as an outright liability. He needs to flash receiving skills, show returner skills and probably get some work in as a gunner. He ended up landing in not a great spot.. Gase is a question mark, Bell & Montgomery signing means the Jets now have 4 guys who do most of what Holmes brings to the table, and better (though only 1 is anything of a noted returner... and not in a good way, given the nature of his exit from the Packers). I simply don't see a spot for him unless he can dominate the KR/PR role... hard, with Dortch having signed (and playing in a much less deep position group on offense).
LHK
Roar Rookie
I think that's a fair point. Guys like PFF have their own metrics on which they judge running back play and if that's their grade that's fair enough. But stats don't necessarily represent the physical mechanics of running style or the crispness of route running. I'm not sure if defensive plays are equated into the grade, but from what I saw the defense was very vanilla, meaning they were playing basic schemes. In regular season games defenses become alot more aggressive and complicated, and aim to take away the strengths of the offense. I've watched enough preseason football to know that even guys who excel in the preseason don't necessarily become great players in the regular season. So for me, for Holmes to be impressive he either needs to hold his own against regular starters or if playing against lower teir players he needs break more tackles running the ball, get his pad level lower and have a more explosive first couple of steps coming out of the backfield. Or if he was able to line up as a slot receiver and run some quick crossing routes through traffic. It's not that I'm not rooting for Holmes to succeed. Far from it. But I also know how cut throat the NFL is and for him to succeed he's gonna have to show more than what he produced against the Giants.
lewl
Guest
I didn't see the game, so I can't speak personally as to Holmes' competition yesterday (just saw his highlights), but I will say this - a professional analytics company (and no, that doesn't mean they're strictly stats guys.. that's quantitative analytics, these guys go well beyond that) that works with all 32 NFL teams just came out with game grades in yesterday's games. Holmes graded out as the best running back on the Jets... by a looooong way. In terms of breakdown of his play; top running grade (which was just ok, not good - but every other back was worse), worst pass block grade (only on 2 snaps though), and an elite receiving grade (not just the best RB, but the best on the team). Now yes, obviously he was playing against guys who for the most part aren't making rosters in September - but you can only beat what is in front of you. Overall they had him the 5th highest graded player on offense - though with adjustments for competition level you'd probably drop him down to 8th-10th (nobody else was both close enough and played earlier). It wasn't average, anyway. That's the gist of it. It was close to as good as possible, given the circumstances - missing the opportunity to get special teams snaps (and particularly, return opportunities) makes it harder for him to impress.