So the warm-up games are over and have been dissected, there’s still ten sleeps to kick off, we’re all beside ourselves with excitement and everyone has already gone through their likely outcomes.
How to kill time until September 20? My solution is to list the top five potential unlikely outcomes, backed up with some sort of rationale.
To be clear, these are not predictions – you just have to pick the five most likely upsets. So here goes.
1. Japan
The assumption is that they’ll follow the examples of Wales in 1991 and England in 2015 and go out at the group stage as the host nation, but I wonder.
I saw them at Twickenham last summer and they were excellent, leading at half time. England were poor until Owen Farrell came on and sorted things out, but this was partially because Japan played so well – committed, skilful and with a high tempo.
They’ve also dominated the Pacific Nations Cup this year and I could see them beating Scotland and even frightening Ireland, particularly if the Irish line out doesn’t function, as has been the case recently.
Probability: 40%
2. South Africa beat NZ
OK, not particularly original and those more knowledgeable than me can no doubt give better reasons, but if the Springboks pack can beat up the All Blacks’ eight, Faf de Klerk – who I expect to be one of the stars of the competition – plays a blinder, Handre Pollard controls the game and S’busiso Nkosi can sneak in at the corner, it could happen.
Probability: 38%
(Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
3. France reach the semi-final
Based on results over past four years, this looks highly unlikely, but there have been glimpses of what the team could achieve if they had better coaching and the national team were given greater influence over the clubs.
They have some exciting young backs such as Damian Penaud and Antoine Dupont, and their forwards are tough. If they can beat Argentina – which is likely – and be competitive against England – who will have too much firepower – they could easily surprise either Australia or Wales.
Probability: 30%
4. Australia reach the final
They have to beat Wales – England’s power, line out, kicking game and bench are probably too much for the Wallabies.
If so, they can certainly beat the French, but the All Blacks have the breadth of skills and the intelligence to work out where the Australian limitations are, so it also requires a semi-final against the Springboks or Ireland.
Probability: 20%
5. An all northern hemisphere final
Again, this requires the All Blacks to top their group as England are the only team other than the Springboks that can beat them.
Ireland 2019, even with Robbie Henshaw back and Johnny Sexton restored, are not the same as Ireland 2018, particularly with Rory Best’s poor throwing and no Devin Toner to give good line-out ball.
And Wales don’t have the backs – Jonathan Davies and Liam Williams aside – to open up the All Blacks nor the front five – Alun Wyn Jones and Ken Owens aside – to take them apart.
A quarter-final grouping containing France, Wales and Ireland, however, could certainly contain the capacity to take out the Springboks, either there or in the semi-final.
Probability: 15%
Rhyno
Roar Rookie
Ulrich - I'm saying the climate is suitable for running rugby and in conditions the Fijians are accustomed to.
Kane
Roar Guru
You said none of the Fijians, that was proven to be a lie. Mate you've lost plot stating the Samoan Rugby Union will not deny Samoans their rights to play for Samoa. The Samoan Rugby Union have been doing exactly that...
terrence
Roar Rookie
how bout the other fijians in the wallabies?..the samoan govt and the samoa rugby union will not deny samoans' rights of being samoan or their rights to play for manu samoa and represent their heritage..it's a different way of thinking mate..you wouldn't understand..
Kane
Roar Guru
Sounds like Samoa are really benefiting from the current eligibility rules. Hang on you just said "none of the fijians in the wallabies were born, raised or have any australian ancestry" I just proved that to be incorrect? Kerevi was raised in Australia, he's as every bit an Australian as Quade Cooper, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Michael Cheika, Will Genia, Crocodile Dundee, George Gregan, Alf Stewart, John Eales or bloody Skippy. If you're happy to select players who have never been to Samoa and had no intention to until they realised they couldn't make the national team of their birth country then that's a real shame for the country of Samoa
terrence
Roar Rookie
they don't need to..they're samoans mate..the same way kerevi is a fijian..
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Guest
One drawn match for any of the games mentioned in the article, along with one match abandoned due to a typhoon and points shared accordingly, would certainly upset many predictions. The All Blacks splitting 4 points with Italy? I see that Stuff has an item on this "nightmare scenario" posted yesterday.
Kane
Roar Guru
First one I checked. Samuela Kerevi was born in Viseisei, Fiji. He moved with his family to Australia at aged 4 They are Australians because them or their families moved there to start a life. How many of the New Zealanders that are picked for Samoa have even been to their country before being selected?
terrence
Roar Rookie
aussies do it all the time..none of the fijians in the wallabies were born, raised or have any australian ancestry..there is a common trend in all those eligibility rules including the the one-country representation policy..they all benefit the bigger unions..
Kane
Roar Guru
No wait that’d hurt Samoa more than anyone
Kane
Roar Guru
Well you know they could change it to citizens or passport holders? That would show the ‘white man’...
terrence
Roar Rookie
when the need arises they will..they've done it also before with boxers and sprinters of samoan descent..who cares about rugby eligibility rules..they're just big union white man rules designed to benefit themselves and does the islands no favours..
Bill Shut
Roar Rookie
True..........except for 1995.....
Kane
Roar Guru
Please explain how the rules are skewed? It’s quite clear. If you are a child or grandchild of a person born in the country you become eligible. If you obtain a passport or citizenship you become eligible. If you live there for 5 years you become eligible. Are you saying Sonny Bill is the only player of Samoan decent that they’ve ever wanted to select? How many other passports have they issued to circumvent World Rugby rules?
terrence
Roar Rookie
and the rules are heavily influenced by wales, scotland and england who are not even real countries..
terrence
Roar Rookie
they will..samoan govt will simply issue them a passport like they did with sonny bill..they are fed up with how the islands are being screwed over by rugby's skewed eligibility rules and will simply go around it..
Kane
Roar Guru
Except for those pesky Romanians :stoked:
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Sorry, I meant Toni Pulu!
Kane
Roar Guru
What was Pulu’s exception Fionn?
Kane
Roar Guru
They may still be Samoan but they won’t be eligible to play for Samoa?
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Augustine Pulu being the exception that provers the rule :silly: