The votes have been comprehensively cast – this will be the Rugby World Cup with the greatest focus on mobility to date.
Discussions around the loose forwards’ structure over the last two years have seen the focus move from playing dual six-and-a-half-like players to the dual open-side model.
Although it should be noted that Scotland, Wales and Australia run very different models with the same structure, New Zealand and England’s combinations look similar, while Ireland and South Africa lean towards the more traditional. What is not in dispute is the increasing trend to homogeneity in the back three in general play.
But worship at the Alter of Footspeed has claimed some high-profile victims.
Devin Toner is a notable omission for Ireland. This is the one I don’t get at all. Noting more than half the tries of the 2015 Cup came from the line out and knowing that this set piece has been Ireland’s most important attacking launch pad of recent years, reserving Toner’s A1 seat on the plane should have been a no-brainer. It was not to be.
New Zealand’s 108-Test front-row stalwart Owen Franks likewise stays at home and keeps his proud record of never having crossed the whitewash in a Test match in tact. His honorary presidency of the front row club is surely to follow for this reason alone.
But it is the locks that are the new super stars of game. These big men have had to develop the fastest over recent years with set piece a given, physicality a must, but wider ball skills now expected. Surely there has never been a Rugby World Cup with such an array and depth in the second-row position for so many countries.
And this brings me to the stretching the mobility premise into the second row as Warren Gatland did in the last Lions tour. This was an inventive but seriously brave move. He initially chose an extremely pacey back three, which paid off large in cover defence, but he then took this into the hallowed ground of the tight five.
After taking something of a beating in the narrow channels in Game 1, Gatland opted for the selection of Maro Itoje at lock to provide a different picture for the All Blacks, but this did bring a significant trade-off in the tight exchanges and it put huge pressure on the remaining Lions forwards.
The following videos are all clipped from Game 3 of the series.
Let’s look at the positives first. Looking at the game clock, we note that these were all largely early in the game and were not sustained. While these types of outcomes are nice for the fan club boys, if the tactic is not sustained, it does not elicit a change in the opposition structure nor produces tangible outcomes, then we can question its impact.
In the interests of viewing all outcomes in the reciprocal, here are the impacts Itoje made in the tight channels and it simply wasn’t enough, not in isolation nor in context of the mobility trade-off. He made four tackles (two on the Barretts in the backs and not one on the opposition tight five), missed one and was largely absent/ineffective at the breakdown battle.
But the battle in the middle of the park did not go away. If anything, it was fought with as much vigour as any game in recent years. If this was a theatre of war, Alun Wyn Jones would have been knighted on the spot and when he shuffled off the park after 73 minutes, he took with him the respect of the Kiwi rugby public.
I do lead the final video with New Zealand’s second try of the match, not only because it shows what happens when you get over the gain line and produce quick ball, but look for the movement here from Brodie Retallick, which gets himself free at the line out.
So kudos to Warren Gatland for seeking an inventive solution in this series, and it is a mindset that has now come to broader prominence for the coming tournament.
But somewhere in this coming Rugby World Cup, a coach is going to turn the mobility dial too far to the right, will lose a physical contest right up the middle of the ground, perhaps with a first and final warning.
I fear with the combos of Mo’unga/Barrett, Savea/Cane and Bridge/Reece all being favoured, it may be the tournament’s bookies favorites who may fall into this trap.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Accuracy is king.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Great observations Highlander. Sometimes I wonder if the AB coaches feel they have to "lead" tactics all the time to keep a nose in front. Things are so tight between teams now.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
Well, Snyman for Etzebeth from the bench and if for some reason the workhorse that is Mostert does not last 80, PSdT can move to 5 with Flouw potentially reshuffling the loose trio. Mosterd is almost another loose forward in terms of ruck and tackling work rate (does not necessarily carry that much). PSdT is very good for his position. There’s Lood also lurking as well as K. Smith. Trick will be to balance the match 23 according to the opposition. I’m confident Mostert is the missing link for mobility and Kolisi is no slouch either – though perhaps no Kriel or Kwagga in that department. Marx and Nyakane are not bad in the loose either.
Highlander
Guest
Pretty sure most have not shown their full hand yet Mm, NZ included. Would not surprise me in the slightest if Barrett starts at 10 this weekend, Rassie does have to think about which attacking option the ABs will go with. Crotty’s form likely to be vital too.
moaman
Roar Guru
I am pretty confident that the ABs have what it takes Highlander.I was super-impressed with how fit they looked at Auckland. If the ball is greasy as widely expected,it will be interesting to see how the various teams handle it. One little worry i have is that with the possible back 3 we saw at Eden Park being retained there might be a bit of weakness under the high ball. BB is pretty reliable in the air but a bit lightweight for contesting against heavier opponents.Reece is--well--a shortarse not to put too fine a point on it. I am also deliberately not reading too much into performances and results over the past 12 months or so.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
As you mention earlier, I think Retallick is the key to this. The answer to your question for me is ‘Yes’ if Retallick is fully fit and firing, but only ‘maybe’ if he’s not.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
The lineout is more of a trade off for England than, for example, the ABs if either go with 2 ‘7s’. Savea and Read are good lineout options, England don’t have that with a backrow of Curry, Underhill, Vunipola. Jones will have to finesse the lineout more than most teams. Yet another mouthwatering aspect of this RWC, as you say, to see how all the coaches negotiate their various issues.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
The shortest path to the goal line is straight up the middle. Nobody does the middle better than the Bok. If you can’t out muscle them, you out hustle them. Otago has in my view been the best at that style of forward play since they have rarely had players that can out muscle the opposition. But their ability to swarm and hustle in my view is legendary. Three seasons of SR, two matches per season and the chiefs had no answer. What frustrated me is it didn’t even look like they were trying to counter it, but that is a different discussion. The point is the AB’s have the mobility and athleticism to play this sort of game, but can they? Do they have the attitude and mindset to go at it like this for 80 minutes, accurately? The Highlanders make it look easy and they have done it consistently over the years against all comers, but I am not convinced in practice it is quite so easy, especially against the best forward packs in the world and with players who don’t typically play like that. Sure Hansen has changed out a couple of the plodders for more mobility, but will it be enough and can they play the in your face constant hustle that is needed if you go for mobility over physicality?
Highlander
Guest
One of the big questions of the group stage will be whether the Wallabies can produce the forward effort we saw in the first 40 in Perth.
Tuc Du Nard
Roar Rookie
Great points made here. Thanks. I agree that the ABs sometimes almost play too arrogantly and run too soon before gaining any dominance in the piggies. Perth is the way everyone wants to play the ABs if you can be powerful and direct like the WBs played and at the same time -ABs were being loose. But once they realised they had been found out they really knuckled down in Bled 2 and played proper test match footy. Interesting how they couldn't adjust in Bled 1 but probs down to 14 -main reason they didn't.
Highlander
Guest
Thanks Chivas What concerns me most for the AB’s is the attitude they go out with. We have seen recently against both England and South Africa away from home ( really important this and most journos are ignoring it), is that the ABs have been able to muscle up and finish over the top of good sides. The focus on dominating the gain line in Bledisloe 2 was also evident and that was their most clinical display for 2 years. But too often they run before they establish dominance, and we old conservatives don’t like that.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
Top article Highlander. I fear the ABs are going to get found out. I am sure the coaches are aware of being too loose as they have paid the price for it before, as recently as Perth and while they dominated in Auckland 36 to nil, for me at least they didn’t and couldn’t make the physical statement they have in the past. I think not being able to will catch up with the somewhere along the ways in this tournament. The fact people are pinning so much hope on Retallick suggests that this is where others also see our archilles heal. While I am a great supporter of Brodie and glad to see Tuipulotu playing up to his potential, I think people may be expecting a bit much if they expect either of them to fill the physicality gap when they come up against England or SA.
Highlander
Guest
England look to have the most options to change up the game in their pack between a mobile and physical game - no one is going to fancy playing Launchbury Kruis and Lawes at. 4-5-6 if they decide to go for straight grunt , and your point on the lineout is well made, sides will go after you there. There are so many permutations available in the top 5-6 sides we are going to see selection and gameplan decisions being fine line calls game by game. As well as being the most even RWC ever it has the most variability too. Coaches are going to earn their coin in this one.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
I think Jones is excited about playing Curry and Underhill together, but he’ll make sure that the 23 gives him the option of pushing Itoje or Lawes to ‘6’ if the lineout comes under pressure.
Highlander
Guest
Its an interesting mix Harry, England would appear to have the most mix and match options in their pack, and with 5 big tests in a row to win it they will probably need the variation. New Zealand and South Africa slightly less variation but changes for these too bring a very different game picture. Say Smith for SA and Barrett on the blind for NZ,
Highlander
Guest
True FB, he is a very different footballer now, both in body shape and work rate, and it would not surprise me at all to see him given another run at 6 in this comp.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Worth remembering Itoje was only 22. Over 2 years later you don’t need to ‘trade off’ between mobility and physicality - he gives you both.
Harry Jones
Expert
Great issue to frame, Highlander. With the quick turnarounds, and the need to win three straight test matches against increasingly stronger Tier 1 teams, I think there will be a bit of horses for courses in the loose trios. The tight five should be cemented (for the toughest matches) because you can pull off four at 50-55 minutes, and shift your tall 6 to lock, for a total refresh. The loose trio, on the other hand, must have guys who can go 80, and you'd prefer all three be able, because you can only staff one loosie reserve. Because each team, even NZ, has a "RWC bogey" team (England and NZ struggles to beat SA, Wales struggles to beat Australia and SA, NZ struggles with IRE, SA struggles w OZ, etc) I would think we'll see variations in the FOUR loosies named by each team even in the KO rounds. For example, Rassie can use Kwagga or Louw and that is a completely different look/size/speed.