Weighing up the Wallabies’ chances against England

England could play Ben Stokes at five-eighth and still beat the Wallabies at the World Cup.

And that’s not because everything that Stokes has touched has turned to gold over the past few months, so much so that it’s reasonable to imagine him striking goal-kicks as sweetly as he was launching Josh Hazlewood into the Headingley crowd.

It’s mainly because England have got so much quality and power across the field that it seems inconceivable Australia could go with them when the stakes get bigger in a couple of weeks.

The two nations are poised to meet in the first quarter-final of the tournament – on 19 October in Oita – following Australia’s deflating loss to Wales last weekend in Tokyo.

Fiji found their mojo against Georgia yesterday, running in six tries in a 45-10 victory, but Wales should be too well-drilled and disciplined for the Pacific Islanders when they meet next week, meaning the Welsh will top Pool D.

There’s a slither of hope that the Wallabies can avoid England, who have won the last six Tests between the two countries since Australia’s 33-13 pool match victory at the 2015 World Cup.

For that to happen, they would need Argentina or France – or both – to knock England over and ensure the Poms don’t top Pool C.

Even in easy wins over Tonga and the United States England looked fit and fast and confident rolling it in close with their big forwards or playing with width and precision with their fast men.

Manu Tuilagi at inside centre looks in a mood to bulldoze opponents, and he’s a strong candidate to be among the most influential over the remainder of the World Cup. He’s looking lean and feisty, and by linking with the silky skills of Elliot Daly and the power of Joe Cokanasiga, the English backline has plenty of points in them.

(David Rogers – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

But Argentina are desperate. They stormed home to get their noses in front against France before a 70th-minute Camille Lopez field goal proved enough to get Les Bleu home. So the Pumas need to upset England in Tokyo on Saturday to keep their World Cup alive. The Argentinian forwards can probably match it with England, but they will struggle to create enough linebreaks in the backs to get the momentum needed to stretch England.

And as is typical with France, who knows what they will serve up in the last round of pool play. By then there’s a decent chance both sides will be through to the quarters, but with the motivating factor that the victor will avoid a very accomplished and confident Wales and instead take on the Wallabies.

Argentina will push England harder than France will, but still Eddie Jones’s team will come through and be battle hardened for the knockout stages of the tournament.

So why should Wallabies fans have any reason for optimism in that likely quarter-final clash?

There’s naturally a chance that Australia can find a way to flick a switch that will make them a lot more cohesive and urgent than they’ve shown so far. Start as sluggishly as they did against Wales and they’re little chance of victory. But Samu Kerevi might have the game of his life, David Pocock might get back to his domineering days of the last World Cup and Will Genia might hit Wallabies players on the chest at full speed instead of opposition shooters.

(Lee Warren/Gallo Images/Getty Images)

But the reality for Australia is that they would need a lot to go their way, and that arguably includes the officiating as well.

And in this World Cup, in which refereeing has been inconsistent and over-officiating has been prevalent and unpredictable, the odds of a red card or a couple of yellow cards wouldn’t be that outrageous. It wouldn’t be too far-fetched to think that a high tackle, shoulder charge, neck roll or some other bit of foul play – real or not – could be a big factor in the result.

The Kerevi penalty against Wales delivered a whole new level of ridiculousness to refereeing. It didn’t cost Australia a man in the bin or a send-off, but it was a critical turning point in the game as Wales added 10 points in the next few minutes.

Think of a scenario similar to what happened in Bledisloe Game 1 in Perth earlier this year. Yep, the Wallabies were surprisingly dominant in the first half, but the red card to All Blacks lock Scott Barrett was crucial in securing the Wallabies a rare win over New Zealand. The following fixture a week later at Eden Park, won emphatically by the All Blacks 36-0, went a long way to proving the effect of Australia playing against 14 All Blacks.

The Barrett send-off was warranted as it was a genuine bit of foul play. But given the performances of the referees, touch judges and TMOs at the World Cup so far, fans are carrying a level of nervousness that games can be decided – or at least significantly influenced – by dubious calls.

Piers Francis doesn’t even get a yellow card for a clear high tackle? Kieran Read can go in with an obvious shoulder charge and only cop a penalty? There’s a feeling that regrettably there are plenty of controversial refereeing calls to come in this World Cup. At the very least there are likely to be plenty of infuriating delays for mid-game reviews.

If only Stokes’s LBW could’ve been reviewed at Headingley, Australia would’ve retained the Ashes over their old rivals England a bit earlier.