Hosts Japan are out to create more history as they face South Africa in the fourth and final quarter-final of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
Japan’s 28-21 win over Scotland in their final Pool A match secured their first-ever place in the last eight.
Jamie Joseph’s side are looking to repeat their remarkable 32-34 win over the Springboks in 2015 when they stunned the two-time champions to cause one of the biggest upsets of all time.
Japan captain Michael Leitch – who went over for Japan’s first try in ‘The Brighton Miracle’ – has said his side have developed the mental strength to deal with the pressure of the World Cup knockout stage.
“Looking back, even since 2011, this team has grown so much and it is scary to think about how far this team could actually grow.
“The last four games, we are getting better each time, and the confidence is growing. This is great for Japanese rugby, for rugby in Asia and for tier-two rugby.”
Whilst almost all of the pre-match attention has been focussed on the hosts, the Springboks squad have been quietly preparing to write their own chapter in the history books.
Coach Rassie Erasmus has known his favoured team for some time and it no surprise to see his South Africa side packed with forwards.
“It’s no secret – I’m not giving away any team secrets,” he said.
“The match 23 is probably our best, in-form, current fit players which is why I went with the six-two split (on the bench).
“To nullify the space around the tight forwards, with the pace that they have. And the third one is to play towards our strengths, which is physical rugby, set-phases, mauling, scrums.
“We will definitely try to play the game at our pace, and they will try to play the game at their pace.”
Much of the attacking skill and quick handling Japan have produced has been honed in Super Rugby.
The Brave Blossoms were the stand-out side in the pool stage at their own tournament. Their stunning victories over Ireland and Scotland have inspired a new generation of rugby fans.
26-year-old Kotaro Matsushima became an overnight sensation with his hat-trick against Russia, and then went on to light up the Scotland match with a dazzling performance.
The Pretoria-born wing was the joint-top try-scorer in the competition coming into this weekend.
Japan also have a quality kicker and distributor at ten in Yu Tamura. The 30-year-old is the top scorer so far with 48 points.
Stories like this are what World Cup dreams of made of.
(Photo by Clive Rose – World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)
If the fairy tale ends here, then you can be certain the Boks will have put in a heck of a performance.
South Africa are aiming to reach the Rugby World Cup semi-finals for the fifth time in seven appearances. Under Erasmus they are a solid outfit but also possess attacking potency of their own.
Cheslin Kolbe, who trained with Matsushima at under-20 level, was a star performer for his club Toulouse this year. The diminutive wing was sensational in the pool games and will be a serious threat out wide.
But what South Africa really relish is a physical battle. They will look to launch their powerful ball-carriers at the heart of the Japanese.
The scrum is one area that the Brave Blossoms have improved, but they will do well to just keep parity up front.
Japan know their real strengths lie in their fitness, set-piece routines and devastating line speed.
Team news
Japan have made one change to their starting line-up, bringing Ryohei Yamanaka in at fullback in place of the injured William Tupou.
Tupou suffered a concussion in Japan’s win over the Scots and is not involved in the matchday 23.
30-year-old winger Lomano Lava Lemeki is named among the replacements as cover for the back three.
Jamie Joseph also makes two changes to the bench with forwards Wimpie van der Walt and Amanaki Lelei Mafi replacing Uwe Helu and Hendrik Tui.
Loosehead prop Jiwon Koo has recovered from a rib injury and starts in the front row.
Rassie Erasmus had rotated his squad through the pool stage to ensure his players all had game time before the knockout stages but has settled on the same matchday squad that crushed Italy 49-3.
Bongi Mbonambi is the starting hooker with Malcolm Marx coming off the bench.
South Africa’s key man Kolbe has returned from an ankle injury. Kolbe scored twice against Italy but was kept out of the Springboks’ final Pool B match against Canada as a precaution to ensure he was ready for the quarters.
Prediction
South Africa defeated Japan 41-7 in a World Cup warm-up match in September and their power and big-game experience should see them ease through as comfortable winners.
It would be incredible to see the hosts keep the dream alive, but the Springboks should prove one step too far.
South Africa by 15.
Oomtas
Guest
Don't believe all Rassie says .
Walt1010
Roar Rookie
Rassie appears to be saying that forward domination should be enough to preserve the Japanese defence and the rush defence will blunt their attack. He may have a point. The Japanese pack will certainly be tested, and their attack will probably have slightly less time and ball than they had in previous games. Will the Japanese forwards hold firm and can the backs still do their magic in a more pressured situation? Although it's possible, my instinct tells me that Japan will not be strong enough, either in defence or attack, at least in part due to the mental toll it has taken getting this far in the tournament. The Boks will grind them down, in as boring a fashion as possible.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
As much as I would love to see Japan win, I suspect that it could end up a NZ v SA final. As I’m now neutral (thanks Cheika)I hope that I am wrong
Puff
Guest
Pundits have a love affair about making predictions. They generally cost nothing and always achieve doubt and hesitation in the minds of the undecided. Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown are riding the wave with the Brave Blossoms and are very cognizant of the task before them. They don’t require innovative speeches or letters from the Prime Minister. There is no ambiguity about the game plan, the ability to stay the course, is the question. Crowd loyalty will not be in short supply but breaking down the SA defensive structures and power play up front is the challenge. At this moment the dream is still very much alive.
Pie_t
Guest
Another glaring weakness is Kolisi, who on merit wouldn't even be on the bench. SA is a loose forward factory; Kolisi is a super nice guy but shouldn't be anywhere near that team. He does absolutely nothing.
Pie_t
Guest
That's the problem with rugby these days - people having far more concern for the TV rights and the € than the game. And in order to get more "bums on seats" they tinker with the rules to make the game more spectacular but in the process they are taking the game ever farther from its roots. Seeing players lining across the field in defence looks more and more like League every day.
Arnab Bhattacharya
Roar Guru
I'm a massive football fan and only watch Union when it's the Rugby Championship/World Cup. However, there's just something about this Japanese team that has got me really hooked onto them. Controversial but I'd say what Japan have done this RWC is bigger than what Russia did at last year's FIFA World Cup. 1. Russia got the easy draw whereas Japan had to face two strong sides in Ireland and Scotland while Samoa are no pushovers. Russia played Saudi Arabia and Egypt, both sides who were in dissaray at that time and Uruguay who thrashed them. 2. Japan are actually undefeated this World Cup so far and they've been performing well prior to the RWC while Russia just suddenly turned up during the World Cup. The Russian fans expectations were low whereas the Japanese fans have been expecting at least a quarter final spot The belief from that day in Brighton will be massive for Japan. Self belief is a massive trait when the underdog plays the favourite. If Japan can start well and their crowd can create noise to disrupt the South Africans, this could be a really special night for them. C'mon the Nippon
Laurence Olivier
Japan have a distinct advantage in that Faf is starting for the Boks. His present form will ensure that Japan keeps gaining possession from his poor box kicking and inability to read a game a la Aaron Smith. Trouble is that he is always visible mainly as a hair advertisement rather than a real top drawer scrummie. Hopefully I am proven to be wrong and he will ''star''. As a soundly beaten Wobblie supporter I will be supporting the Boks as they are the only team capable of beating the ABs. The ABs have no real weaknesses. The boks have two - Faf and Willie. They can shine in some genius moments but the Boks need consistency not flashes. The Boks discipline has been admirable and this is a very likeable squad who have shown they can mix it with the best and play attractive attacking rugby. The final should the two old foes, ABs vs Boks and that just might be one of the greatest tests in history. But then they will need to have Nigel Owens as the Ref. Ideally Peyper and Barnes running the touches and anyone other that Skeen as TMO. ANYONE.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Yeah, I picked NZ, SA or Ireland to win the 2019 RWC but it would be great for rugby if Japan got to the final. Imagine the international interest and the value of future TV rights in Asia....
Homer
Roar Rookie
Oh I hope so, I hope so. Nothing against SA (who I picked to play NZ in the final months ago) but wouldn't it be something if Japan made the semi finals!!
ScottD
Roar Guru
I'm 90 % sure that SA will win but that 10% inside me tells me that Jamie Joseph has a plan and since I rate him as one of the best coaches in his generation I am picking there to be only 5 points in this game. And you heard it here first, Japan to be the fitter and more inspired team at the end and score the winning try in the last 2 minutes.......! Does anyone else feel deja vu?
Homer
Roar Rookie
Neutral - I really want the Japs to win and so I've built a case based on a few facts but mostly on a lot of wishful thinking, but... there is one thing that might give them the extra lift they need: a card. That would be enough to do it.
Homer
Roar Rookie
Well, that's what the smart money says - but no one ever accused me of being smart.... :happy:
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
I really wanna be able to write something smart and build a case for a Japanese win. But the A1 Bokke rugby plan looks too convincing on paper. Somehow I believe that the Blossoms will play with a lot more smarts and energy than OZ and IRE did, but to win, they need to connect with a higher power and find skills, strength, and nous they did not even know they have.
bop
Roar Rookie
the springbok will eat them and spit them out. the dream is over
Homer
Roar Rookie
Right OJ. I’m picking Japan to win narrowly. Especially if there are any cards awarded. Last RWC was all about turnovers. By 2017 it was all about perfecting the rush defence. After the Lions tour of NZ it has all been about finding a way round the rush wall and the methods that work are what Japan, NZ and England are doing. Not what Ireland, Wales and especially Australia were/are doing. You need a variable kicking game, speedy chasers and supporters, a solid rush defence of your own and above all – slick hands. This is where NZ and Japan have it over England and SA – offloads, pass and catch. My pick is that just maybe, Japan could pull it off. They won’t lack for mental determination or physical fitness. I think it’s possible the Boks will learn what the ABs and Lions learned in 2017 – that a rush defence and traditional crashing attacks by forwards and offloading backs throwing high risk desperate passes in contact, will not be enough to beat a team that can use their kicks properly. Japan by 7 ish.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
South Africa falling back on their scrimmaging and mauling is not going to cut it in the later stages. I don't understand why they're lulling themselves into this idea that they'll monster Japan physically when the All Blacks and England are both trying to play expansively. The only time they looked like an attacking threat in their opener against New Zealand was when they busted tackles and made line breaks. Their structures were not threatening at all. There's been quite a bit of romanticism about traditional Boks rugby in the build-up to this game, but this World Cup has been about attacking innovations. The Andy Farrell rush defense that has dominated rugby for the past few seasons was picked apart last night. I hope for the Springboks' sake they show something in attack tonight. As for Japan, they won't die wondering. Not this group. The message has been clear all week that they're not just satisfied with a first ever quarter-final appearance. I think they'll give it a crack. They may end up being overpowered but they won't lack heart. For the fans, it's a chance to see their heroes in action again. I can't wait.
Colc69
Roar Rookie
Imagine if Japan beat SA, it would great for World rugby. A semi final spot would have Wales/France really under pressure. Jamie Joseph has continued the good work of Eddie Jones and has built a really cohesive team. They play with energy and their support play when they have possession is in the same vein of the AB's. If I was a gambling man I would happily put $$$ on the blossoms.