The Six Nations begin to resemble Wile E. Coyote with their collective failures at the Rugby World Cup.
Just as the Looney Tunes character was foiled at every turn by the speedy Road Runner, so it has proved with the repetitive attempts of Europe’s top teams to rein in the southern hemisphere powers at the game’s biggest tournament.
The notable exception was England’s success in 2003, though even this required arguably the greatest national team ever to emerge from the northern hemisphere to go to extra time in the final. That comment is not intended to detract from the heroics of Martin Johnson’s men, but merely to demonstrated just how difficult the task appears to be for European teams.
Victories over Rugby Championship opponents in friendly matches are becoming more and more common for the Six Nations sides as these have increased substantially in the professional era. Just last Autumn the northern hemisphere won eight such encounters, among them Ireland’s second victory over New Zealand in the past few years.
In 2017 the figure was six, and the year before that nine. Even Italy got in on the act, stunning South Africa 20-18 in Florence. The Six Nations teams have also tasted victory on tour. They had a collective five wins in the southern hemisphere last year, while Wales also beat the Springboks in the US capital.
Little wonder, therefore, that the claims of a closing gap between the hemispheres have been coming thick and fast in recent times, and that teams from the north are invariably atop the rankings at the commencement of rugby’s quadrennial world championship. But somehow this never translates into success when it matters most – 2003 notwithstanding.
Not that they haven’t had their share of victories in the tournament. England’s win over defending champions New Zealand in this year’s semi-finals was one for the ages. They had already demolished Australia in the quarters; a team Wales had also edged out in pool play. This only served to give false hope, however, as once again the northern hemisphere teams were left clutching at thin air.
England have now played in four finals for just one win, France have lost all three finals they’ve played in, Wales haven’t got past the semi-finals after three attempts, Ireland still haven’t progressed beyond the quarters, and Italy have never reached the play-offs.
The big question is why? England and France have more “total players” than any of the southern hemisphere nations, according to World Rugby statistics, while figures for the Celtic nations compare to New Zealand, Australia and Argentina, with Italy not far behind. From what I can gather on national rugby websites, England also have the biggest operating budget, followed by New Zealand, Wales, France, Ireland, South Africa, Scotland and Australia, respectively.
Seven of the nine World Cups have produced a North-South final and on six of those occasions, the latter has prevailed. The Europeans seem capable of beating their southern rivals at other stages of the tournament but, with one down-to-the-wire exception, not in the final.
Perhaps it comes down to smarts. Nobody knows rugby like the Kiwis and South Africans, which is why those two nationalities have dominated the game for over a century. But let’s not forget the Wallabies. Rugby is by no means the main sport in Australia and is fairly minor in much of the country. The green and golds were not even considered a major force in the game until the 1980s. Yet they have claimed two titles.
Could it be that the home unions, France and Italy are themselves handicapped by the same exclusivity which has often been cited as an impediment to the game’s international development? The Six Nations may be stronger than the European Nations Championship (ENC), but it is surely not at the same level as the Rugby Championship.
So while England and France are playing in the same annual competition as the Celtic nations and Italy, New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and Argentina are locking horns in what, with all due respect, could just about be described as a “mini-World Championship.” It also involves two rounds most years, with the All Blacks and Wallabies meeting a third time for the Bledisloe Cup.
Might this be the key to southern hemisphere supremacy and the extra steel they seem to bring to the World Cup final? If so, the Six Nations might want to rethink their opposition to change, such as the proposed World League concept. That is, presuming they don’t want to go on falling off cliffs at the end of every World Cup tournament.
North vs South World Cup Table after nine Tournaments
| Team | New Zealand (23-3) | South Africa (11-1) | Australia (14-8) | Argentina (8-9) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England (9-10) | 1-3 | 1-4 | 4-3 | 3-0 |
| France (5-9) | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Wales (4-11) | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-5 | 2-0 |
| Scotland (0-11) | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Ireland (2-9) | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Italy (1-8) | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
2020s Wish List 1 2023 World Cup - Les Bleus triumph, gli Azzurri make 1/4s, Welwitschias win a game, Spain qualifies - scores a try! 2 2027 & 2031 World Cups awarded to SA & USA, respectively (announcement due 2021). 3 2027 World Cup - expansion to 24, Brazil, Kenya & a 2nd Asian team qualify. SA v NZ finale to determine first 4-time winner. 4 Samoa to reach 2020 Olympics, Chinese women to win a medal 5 Les Bleus to win a 6 Nations title or three. Gli Azzurri to finish in the top half of the table and win a title by end of decade. 6 Super Rugby to add a Pacific Island franchise. Canes build a dynasty. Move over, Saders! 7 Rapid Rugby to prosper and expand, drawing in teams from NZ, Japan, China & South Asia, and perhaps a Hawaiian-based franchise. 8 MLR to prosper and expand, moving to bigger stadiums and prime-time TV. Move over, NFL! 9 SLAR to prosper and expand, at least double the number of teams - including Porto Alegre! 10 More 3rd tier African players pick up pro contracts in Europe, perhaps filling the void if Pacific Islanders flock to GRR and the new Japanese pro league. 11 Tier 1 nations to include tests against 2nd and 3rd tier nations on tours. ie Namibia en route to SA, Uruguay en route to Argentina, Georgia en route to 6 Nations, Pacific Islands en route to/in NZ & Aussie. 12 6 Nations to merge with ENC with inclusion of promo-relegation fixture. Pacific Islands to merge with Asian Top 3 (including Japan).
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Awards of the Decade Just to get the ball rolling. Feel free to add your own choices and categories. Event of the Decade: Olympics 7s. Fiji's emphatic win the stuff of fairy-tales Honorable mention: 2019 RWC, despite the typhoons, produced a stunning final, Japan's own success and Uruguay's surprise win over Fiji. Disappointment: African Gold Cup, lopsided results, acrimony between teams, administrative manipulation leading to eventual collapse Match of the Decade: 2019 World Cup final, had it all, minor upset in terms of result, non-white captain and try-scorers - Boks' first ever tries in a final. Honorable mention: Japan's win over Boks at 2015 RWC might just have been the biggest upset ever. Disappointment: More than one of the play-off games at the 2011 RWC spring to mind, but I'll go with the NZ vs Lions finale in 2017 when a dodgy call at the end denied the latter. 1st tier Team of the Decade: New Zealand, 2/3 RWCs, overwhelming domination of the rankings, multiple RC titles, etc, etc. Honorable mentions - SAfrica - 2019 RWC, Argentina - 2nd RWC semi-final appearance (2015) Disappointment - Italy, successive spoons in the 6 Nations, no wins in sight and still can't make the RWC quarters. 2nd tier Team of the Decade: Japan, has beaten SA, Ireland and Scotland at the last 2 RWCs, as well as Samoa (twice), and reached the quarterfinals this year. Honorable mentions: US - 2017/2018 ARC champs, win over Scotland. Fiji beat France in Paris, among other achievements Disappointment - Romania/Canada. Oaks disqualified from 2019 World Cup and also managed to lose to Germany. Canada hasn't made any impression for a long while and had to qualify for this year's World Cup through the repechages. 3rd tier Team of the Decade: Brazil, 2018 South American champions, wins over USA, Canada and Argentina A to their credit Honorable mention - Algeria. Have pretty much come from nowhere to reach the top division in African rugby. Disappointment - Kenya, cannon-fodder for Canada, Germany & Hong Kong at the World Cup repechages, and losing at home to other 3rd tier teams they used to beat not so long ago. Exciting Development of the Decade: MLR really taking off, expanding nicely, producing great play-offs and attracting lots of foreign talent Honorable mention - GRR: Off the ground with its pilot series, promises to take pro rugby into new frontier Disappointment - Super 18: A convoluted format with a couple of inept teams, ridiculous travel requirements for some and big thumbs down from the fans
Anibal Pyro
Roar Rookie
3 in a row World Champions!! classic!!, the amateur club system in Argentina, makes all the guys friends forever and they keep playing, training kids and kill each other in the classic leagues!!!. The tackes are made a few seconds later, ALWAYS without the ball :laughing: :laughing:
taylorman
Roar Guru
We may as well put a team in it and take that one as well. :laughing:
Derm
Roar Guru
The PRO14 has agreed a deal in principle to sell a 27% stake of the Championship to private equity firm CVC Capital Partners. The deal will result in a cash boost of almost £120m to the PRO14 Championship owned by the Irish, Scottish and Welsh Rugby Unions. It'll be interesting to see what the owner-Unions do for their clubs as a result of receiving such monies. And what SARU and FIR who have participation agreements with the PRO14 might receive from the deal if approved.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Here's my idea for a Pacific-Asia Rugby Championship (PARC) :stoked: Hong Kong v Tonga, Hong Kong Fiji v Samoa, Suva Japan v Korea, Tokyo Fiji v Hong Kong, Suva Samoa v Japan, Apia/Shanghai/Singapore/Auckland Korea v Tonga, Seoul Tonga v Samoa, Nuku'alofa Hong Kong v Korea, Hong Kong Japan v Fiji, Tokyo Fiji v Tonga, Suva Japan v Hong Kong, Tokyo Samoa v Korea, Apia/Shanghai/Singapore/Auckland Hong Kong v Samoa, Hong Kong Tonga v Japan, Nuku'alofa/Guangzhou/Kuala Lumpur/Auckland Korea v Fiji, Seoul RWC qualifying - top 3 progress, 4th to inter-continental playoff, 5th to repechage Annual winner joins ARC (Americas), ENC (Europe) & CAR (Africa) champs at RCC (Confederations Cup) Bottom Asian team plays promotion-relegation fixture against Asian opponent Bottom Pacific team plays promotion-relegation fixture against Oceania opponent NB: Asia is partitioned into East and West zones below PARC level, allowing for 6-team divisions leading to a final, while Oceania competition runs separately.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yeah you too Derm and for the record, I haven’t strayed one bit, started talking north depleting the south, and stayed there. It’s you that brought in the private vs union which is completely irrelevant. We are losing players overseas, almost always to northern based sides. We are not getting players from overseas to replace them. Internal moving is irrelevant. The net effect is the north are gaining, the south are losing. It matters not that Ireland are not one of the ‘culprits’. They did not lose 39 players to their countries this year did they? No, they get to keep largely who they had. We don’t. That puts Ireland in a significant advantage over NZ. Always my point, one that’s never deviated.
Derm
Roar Guru
I'm not deflecting. I don't disagree that SR players are going - they see better options for themselves elsewhere - mainly in Japan, France & England. And it's the private owned clubs that are driving it as they are the ones with the money. But it's not just players from SA, Australia and NZ. It's players from Scotland, Ireland, Wales, Italy, Argentina, Georgia, Moldova, US, Canada, Fiji, Tonga, etc. If you want to paint the whole thing with a very wide brush and describe the destination broadly as the North, have at it. I'm simply pointing out that it's not the North, it's three countries in the main as the destination, two in Europe and one in the Far East, and those are all privately-owned clubs as opposed to national unions. Hence, my original statement, it's become national unions running and owning the game vs private-owned clubs - that is going to continue and get stronger for the private clubs. However, to quote your last post if it "doesn't matter who's taking them, it matters that they're leaving", I think we've strayed too far from the original point of the article so I'll leave it there. Enjoy your summer break.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
But it's 8 World Cups to 1, and the last 4 in a row :laughing: NZ thrashed Wales. making a mockery of the rankings (not hard), while Japan took care of Ireland - along with Scotland. Not sure how much of an improvement on 2015 this really was, tbh.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Bar the way the northern sides exited in the end, the north showing this year was certainly stronger than 2015 where none got past the last 8. Two of them beat Oz and Ireland toured there and won so they have definitely declined. Both Wales and Ireland had top ranking spot for the first time ever, with England I can’t be sure possibly hitting that mark after beating NZ. That is a hundred year plus first. And with even greater numbers leaving our shores, it’s going to get worse.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Nah, that’s just a deflection. Doesn’t matter who’s taking them, it matters that they’re leaving. That’s the trend. If players of Super rugby quality are leaving all three of Oz, SA, and NZ, to the north, and are not being replaced by the same numbers and quality it’s not a ‘happening everywhere’ thing, it’s a one way trend. South to north, private or not makes no difference…’someone is sucking up our players’. We are not getting NH players to replace them in anywhere near those numbers. Players are not going to Japan for Super rugby. How many have signed up for the Sunwolves? Who at the moment, are leaving? Like the pro 14 it’s a northern comp we have nothing to do with. Your desperate efforts to completely deny an obvious and viscious trend is disappointing Derm. Next year there will be ‘x’ number of players from below the equator in the north that were south of it this year. There will also be ‘y’ number of players from above the equator that will be south of it next year. Take a rough shot at which of x or y will be greater? And as the SA article I mentioned here shows, x will be increasing exponentially over y. How that’s not obvious is beyond me.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Dropped back by completely dominating the World Cup, you mean? While Wales can't get past the semis and Ireland are stuck forever in the quarters :laughing: 6 Nations are further behind than they were a century ago, except then there were only 5 of them (and 4 for a while).
Derm
Roar Guru
Italy and Scotland have always tended to have some of their players playing outside PRO14 with contracts in lucrative foreign club climes. Wales also have some and introduced a min cap rule same as Australia. Where do their players go? To private clubs with more money. If all you are seeing is players going North, then presumably you can see that they're all going to private owned clubs with the money to attract them. With Japan who play in Super Rugby one of the big destinations, and who some in SANZAAR territory want to involve in the Rugby Championship. South Africa has already decided to be involved in two competitions and has acted accordingly - it chose to enter into a union-run competition, not a private club one. It draws its players from everywhere. The rugby world is changing, mate. It involves East, North, West, and South.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Don’t think it’s a coincidence that all three main SH sides have all dropped back considerably in such a short timeframe where Ireland and Wales have both borrowed the no. 1 ranking...I don’t think that’s because they’re so much better either. The challenges facing all three to continuously bring players through at one end and retain them is getting larger every year.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
People have been saying that since practically the beginning of pro rugby, expeting it to go the same way as foodball. But the Southern teams have managed things pretty well so far, especially NZ.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
& HK technically means Chinese involvement. :thumbup:
taylorman
Roar Guru
”The exodus of star names to lucrative foreign club climes has reached a point where more than half of that group – eight, to be exact – will begin 2020 outside of the Super Rugby landscape, which features all four of South Africa’s traditionally biggest-name franchises. Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Damian de Allende (though the inspiring RWC midfield figure may still see some service to the Stormers late in their campaign), Handre Pollard, Faf de Klerk, Duane Vermeulen, Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager will all now predominantly be on the books of foreign outfits.“ It was notably less of a problem after the previous World Cup in 2015, for example, when only five of the 15 (one third) who began the narrowly-surrendered semi-final against New Zealand at Twickenham were not returning to SA franchise engagements immediately afterwards: Bryan Habana, Fourie du Preez, Duane Vermeulen, Francois Louw and Bismarck du Plessis. The last time South Africa won the World Cup, in 2007, all of their starters from the Parisian final were due to return to local contracts. Times have certainly changed dramatically … Which of the six nations sides has this problem?
taylorman
Roar Guru
Hong Kong could look very different by 2027... :unhappy:
taylorman
Roar Guru
2 x southern players, 18 x northern players in that lot. :laughing:
taylorman
Roar Guru
I think the north are going to get stronger. The player drain of the magnitude we have now will only make things worse, and we aren’t backfilling fast enough. The northern club scenes are based on the ability to import large numbers of players and they’ll keep draining them more and more. Can’t wait to see a few go bust actually. :laughing: