The A-League season has been full of surprises, from Wellington Phoenix’s continued rise to the initial hope followed by the familiar disappointment of Western Sydney Wanderers.
Melbourne Victory, though, might just be the biggest shock, as they languish in eighth place after ten games, only two points above last place.
Newly appointed coach Marco Kurz was given the difficult task of following Kevin Muscat, whose identity was forged with the club’s own.
Add the loss of key players such as James Troisi and Keisuke Honda and there was going to be a big shake-up on the field too.
At first, it looked like Kurz had produced an exciting new line-up, bringing in Socceroos stars Robbie Kruse and Andrew Nabbout, as well as Ivory Coast international Adama Traore and Danish veteran Jakob Poulsen. All hugely experienced and talented players with outstanding CVs.
What’s gone wrong then for Victory, traditionally one of the A-League’s titans?
Making the most out of Toivonen
Kurz constant shuffling was initially forced by injuries and international fixtures, but in recent weeks, with everyone fit, he still can’t find the right balance.
The former Adelaide United coach has also confused the way he wants his team to play. Sometimes, they’re pressing high up the pitch, looking to win the ball aggressively, while in other fixtures they are happy to sit back and look to attack on the counter.
Their attacking game revolves around Ola Toivonen, perhaps the best striker in the league, and Kurz should take advantage of that as much as possible.
After a short experiment as a number 10, it’s clear that Toivonen works best as a striker who comes short into midfield and pulls defenders out with him, as the clips above shows.
His style clashes with foreign signing Kristijan Dobras, who also wants to operate in between the lines, which is a big part of why the Austrian has struggled so far in the A-League.
The forward line up should exploit the space that their captain creates, and best equipped for these roles are Elvis Kamsoba, Nabbout and Kruse.
Narrow structure leaves Victory vulnerable
Victory don’t bomb their fullbacks up like Rhyan Grant and Michael Zullo at Sydney FC. While this should mean they don’t get exploited defensively, this is rarely the case, largely because those defenders’ positioning creates plenty of space for opponents.
Many goals conceded have come from teams exploiting territory on the flanks that Kurz’s fullbacks have surrendered due to a structure.
Although this particular image didn’t end up in a goal, take a look at the positioning of Perth Glory right back Ivan Franjic and Kruse, who should be tracking him, as well as the defensive line up, who are all within the length of the penalty box.
Bruno Fornaroli’s astute positioning has pinned Leigh Broxham and Traore from moving out wide to cover the run of Franjic. Kruse though, is way too central and this gave plenty of space for Glory to attack.
Diego Castro ended up playing a pass down the middle though, and Glory gave up possession moments later, with Franjic flailing his arms in frustration.
Playing in a narrow structure is fine – the objective is to block the opposition from scoring, which means you must have control of the central areas. In saying that, the wide areas still need to be protected by the wingers and crosses should be stopped at the source, not competing against strikers in the box.
Victory are too predictable in attack
A number of teams struggle with what to do with the ball when they are looking to open up a deep block of defence. This has made it popular for teams to sit back and attack in the moments after the ball has been won.
Those transition phases can be chaotic, which defenders hate. Suddenly, they are running back towards their defence with a winger charging, ready to use the momentum to dribble past.
Kurz has looked to exploit this trend as well, with many goals coming through quick counter-attacks.
Their primary outlet has been to unleash Nabbout and Kruse out wide into space and let them cut in towards goal, as the opener versus Western United exemplified.
That same game also revealed Victory’s weaknesses, though. Once the new team on the block took the lead, Victory were devoid of ideas to break through a rigid and structured defence.
With the derby against City fast approaching, Kurz needs to invent some successful attacking patterns if Victory are to ignite their season and win crosstown bragging rights.
Allan Riley
Roar Rookie
I would say that calling Poulsen and Dobras average is a bit of an understatement. They have looked bad this season, like most of the foreign signings Victory have made this off-season.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Absolutely. But last season for example, you could probably count games as CCM, Roar and WSW as a free win almost. I don't think there are that many, if any, freebies this time around. Sydney the standout, but the rest of the teams look pretty good imo too.
Nemesis
Guest
MV are not playing well but I see nothing from most other teams that suggests they're any better. Syd is the only team that's playing well & deserve most of the points they've earned. All the other teams are worthy of about 12-15 points right now. The ones who are above 12-15 pts have had some lucky results; the ones below 12-15 pts have had some unlucky results. Over 26 matches this will even out. And, let's be honest, we're talking about finishing with about 10 wins out of 26 matches. So, we're aiming to see who is the best of the teams who failed.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
I think he's best when he's dragging defenders out from his initially high position and dropping into midfield. Because the centreback follows Toivonen into midfield, there's a gap for his teammates to exploit. When he starts in midfield, it's not as troublesome for defenders to deal with.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Thanks for reading mate. It's quite competitive this season, I wouldn't say top 6 will be as easy as seasons go past, especially if they don't change things.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
I think Nabbout has showed the quality in spurts, and I would expect him to start showing that consistently by the end of the season. His goal against United which is clipped above wasn't easy at all. Kruse and Toivonen of course the two main stars. As for the midfield, I will reserve my judgement on their quality at least until the end of the season, hopefully there's a system change to verify that too.
Nemesis
Guest
MVFC signed Elvis Kamsoba from Avondale in the NPL (Victoria). Nothing to do with AUFC. Armiento? Never heard of anyone of that name playing for MVFC.
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
kamsobah, armiento. theres a few players under the ages of 18 playing for victory and city
Nemesis
Guest
Only 2 players I recall Melbourne Victory ever signing directly from Adelaide Utd were Spase Dilevski & Matthew Kemp. Neither would've been considered youth.
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
best youth in the country, thats why both melbourne teams keep pinching our kids lol
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
new owners didn’t want him, plain and simple; nothing to do with performance or any of the reasons you’ve suggested. Regardless of his success he was always on the way out as the chairman wanted his own man. Id say the success he had with us actually kept him in a job. it was well known locally that he was a dead man walking when van der pol took over
Fadida
Roar Rookie
I really enjoyed Kurz's AU. The high tempo, aggressive pressing style is yet to be seen at MV. I was genuinely excited about what I though he'd do at MV. The mobility and quality of the squad is definitely part of the issue
Fadida
Guest
Basha is decent, Poulsen struggling with both quality and mobility. Kilkenny is the metronome for Glory, and is I'd argue much better than the aforementioned and the versatile Broxham. The difference is the PG pair get to feed the ball to Castro or Ikonimidis. The MV have Dobras, Nabbout, Kamsoba or Athiu in most games this season trying to create for Ola. So much will result in Kruse. The overall quality MV have is poor, certainly by their standards. Troisi, Antonis, Honda, replaced by Dobras, Basha had Poulsen in midfield. That's a quality issue. Barbarousis has more end product than Nabbout. Kamsoba has none yet. Athiu never will. No depth
Nemesis
Guest
I don't know enough about AUFC's local players & youth, but I found Kurz's coaching to be very enjoyable to watch. The team was always competitive. Never gave up. I recall they were behind 2-0 in the Semi Final & clawed back to force the match to Penalties. Couple of memorable matches vs Brisbane last season. At Suncorp Stadium, AUFC were behind 2-1 & 3-2 and came back to win 3-5. At Hindmarsh, AUFC went a man down after 10 mins. Went behind 0-3 just before Half Time. Came back to win the game 4-3. That's the spirit I want at Melbourne Victory.
Slane
Guest
Agree with everything in this article. I'd really like to see Toivonen in the midfied more often (he has great vision and passing) and possibly another international midfielder.
Franko
Guest
The reason you have Kurz as a manager is because he wouldn't follow AU club culture. - Local players - Youth - Attacking instincts Kosmina, Vidmar, Gombau, Amor and now Verbeek all delivered, Kurz did not.
Nemesis
Guest
Agree with much of what Shabab says about MVFC's weaknesses & failings this season. 10 matches played. 16 matches to play. Ola Toivonen summed it up perfectly when he said: all we have to do is finish 6th.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Agree that individually there are a lot of black holes in the squad. I wonder though, whether that's because they lack the quality or if Kurz's system is simply not getting the best out of these players? Would Poulsen and Basha work better if they tried to play a game where they held the ball more like Kilkenny and Juande?
Nemesis
Guest
Which is pretty much the same at every club. The only 2 coaches who tried to create a club culture & football philosophy are: Ange Postecoglou & Graham Arnold. Arnold's culture is now being adopted by Corica & Talay to good effect. Muscat tried to implement Ange's philosophy but it only was evident irregularly during each season. 2014/15 was the exception when it won MV all 3 trophies in 2015. No other A-League team has any club culture or football philosophy.
reuster75
Roar Rookie
This is hardly a shock to Victory fans as the team have been on a downward slope since we won the double. It's just that in previous seasons the quality was there to win games through an individual piece of brilliance which papered over the cracks (mainly Berisha, Troisi, Barbarouses and Antonis). There is no joined up thinking at Victory, no evolution of the game plan. Under Muscat recruitment was always about trying to find exact replacement when a player left (Matthieu Delpierre is the embodiment of this - ever since he retired we keep signing the same type of player even when they're not as good). This isn't a bad idea per se but relies on quality recruitment and long term planning, neither of which are evident at Victory. Instead of treating each season in isolation and only focusing on winning the title that season, build a squad that can win multiple titles (although granted it's hard to do with the structure of player contracts in the a-league). In a salary capped league with small squads and player contracts that are rarely more than a few years it's even more imperative to think long term.