The ICC has proposed making Tests a four-day affair, and the idea seems to be supported by England and Wales Cricket Board.
Michael Vaughan, former England captain, seems to concur, tweeting, “318 overs is the average result in the 21st century … Only 13 out of 39 Tests this year have gone to the 5th day … only 4 draws”.
However, my analysis of Test data over a longer period – since 2010 – does not seem to support these views. Since 2010 we have had 154 games with more than 360 overs bowled. Assuming each day had 90 overs bowled, all of those games would have gone to a fifth day. Of those matches, 106 produced a result and only 48 ended in a draw. That implies nearly 70 per cent of the games that went to five days had a decisive result.
Of all the 340 Tests with results since 2010, 106 came from having at least 360 overs bowled. That means over 30 per cent of Tests with results came from games with over 360 overs bowled.
The average of “318 overs” that Vaughan tweets may not be indicative. To quote Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan, “don’t cross a river because it is four feet deep on average”. The average of 318 overs, in this case, drowns out over 30 per cent of results from the last decade.
The ICC also seems to suggest that 98 overs be bowled in a day. Since we rarely see even 90 overs bowled per day now, I don’t see how players, even if given more time and daylight in favourable weather, could actually achieve 98 overs per day.
Aside from the win-loss considerations above, Test cricket can survive only when we have an audience that appreciates its poetic slow-burn towards drama. This audience would not mind the fifth day.
badmanners
Roar Rookie
And sometimes the best matches aren't won on the fifth day but end up hard fought draws!
Noah Barling
Roar Pro
I am so glad you made the obvious statement that they will be shoving more money in their pockets. It's a wonder they mentioned rest and commercial interests in the same sentence. The ICC is full of business moguls, as are the cricket boards, and there is little protection for the side of the game bringing in the least amount of money from their greedy hands.
Noah Barling
Roar Pro
The issue being that it is uncommon to see 90 overs bowled in a day, and if we removed the extra half hour which is always taken, even fewer would end with 90. Sure they can crack down on extra brakes and the 12th man running out drinks every 2 balls, but it would be very hard to get 90 overs in, let alone 100 with the tactics of play.
Wayne Kerr
Guest
Test cricket is generally losing money with 5 days. NZ reckon its more profitable with 2:3:3 home series (2 tests). There is already too many breaks in test cricket, is a tea break also needed unless its a day/night test? I do understand the reasoning behind extra drink breaks on hot days. The women play 4 day tests with 98 overs being bowled in a day. Domestic first class games are also 4 days.
PC
Guest
Totally agree. The best test matches are won on the fifth afternoon. Five day format should not be tinkered with
Tanmoy Kar
Roar Rookie
In India and in the Sub-continent the days are small particularly in winter, even completing 90 overs become difficult with 30 minutes extra playing time. Hence bowling 98/100 overs in a day is impossible.
Paul
Roar Guru
These are interesting numbers you've present Arvind and they certainly indicate 5 day cricket should indeed stay as it is. Again though, I don't see the issue here? If this is all about the commercial aspect of the game, why is the ICC bowing to commercial pressure? In any business transaction, there is going to be a degree of risk and it's been that way with cricket since companies realised the advertising dollars that could be made from the game. It's well known that advertising on days 4 & especially 5 are significantly cheaper than day 1, simply because the game might not go that far. If it's for the reason given that it will free up more days for players to recover, that's rubbish as players will simply look to the obvious domestic cash cows, IPL, BBL, etc. They sure as hell won;t be resting unless they're forced to, so this arguments a furphy, IMO.
Clyde
Guest
Well since the 3 ball countries (Eng, Aus and India) decided to monopolize test cricket form themselves this is what you get. The death of test cricket just what the 3 balls wanted so that they can fill the weeks with more T20. Why not just make test matches a 300 over 3 day affair for more T20!
DL2191
Guest
Wasn’t the proposal to have 98 or 100 overs per day? And a key component being to speed up over rates by limiting breaks etc? Re-run your numbers based on 400 overs see what you get. Four days seems like a commercial no brainer to me.. and let’s face it cricket isn’t much more than that these days.
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Yep. Regardless of the statistics just leave it alone please.