I’ve had the opportunity to build friendships with a number of fervent Saints members.
Long-suffering, passionate and generally good people, in my experience not many go to the games expecting to win. While this can be said for many supporters, its only Saints and Demons fans who have experienced over five decades of disappointment and failure. No wonder they are downbeat.
The St Kilda Football Club will enter 2020 with a bubbling sense of optimism likely not felt at the club since the ‘tip-rat’ was crumbing Lenny Hayes long balls off the hands of Nick Riewoldt. It must feel a long time ago for many weary Saints supporters – I can’t even imagine how long it feels since Austinn ‘Aussie’ Jones kicked that goal in the 1997 grand final.
A former boss of mine became a St Kilda member when she moved from the country in 1967. It’s a long, sad tale. One particularly grim story was her having to take a week of leave following the eventual grand final loss in 2010 returning only to find black and white streamers and the Sunday paper from the week before on her desk. Ouch.
I was told this story the day she received her 50-year celebration memorabilia for their sole 1966 premiership. It was a little key chain premiership cup. I thought it was cute. She did not. “Maybe they should try to win another big one then send us all these little stupid ones?” she quipped. I tried to explain I think the two actions are unrelated, but the anger and frustration ran far too deep.
Twenty-seven wooden spoons, a 54-year premiership drought, ten years since the drawn grand final and eight years of missed finals. Many retirements.
St Kilda needs to build a new identity, and there is no better time than right now, after a huge 2019 off-season and a new coach. It’s time to look forward, because the Saints and their fans simply can’t afford to look back.
The 2019 trade period
In: Brad Hill, Dougal Howard, Zak Jones, Dan Butler, Patty Ryder
Out: Jack Steven, Josh Bruce, Blake Acres
It’s the type of off-season that provides a catalyst for an article like this. The Saints attacked the 2019 trade period aggressively and systematically, getting their men and being mature enough to let established players move on to allow St Kilda as a whole to move forward. Naturally there is risk with all the additions, but you have to respect the endeavour. It was bold.
Five ins and three outs in the best 22 has established this period as the first necessary roll of the dice for future success, even if the Saints are still betting in moderate stakes.
It took plenty to get over the line, but the Bradley Hill acquisition offers urgently needed class in a shallow midfield. A triple premiership player with the Hawks and a best-and-fairest winner with Fremantle, Hill has become one of the competition’s elite outside midfielders. With 25 possessions a game and exquisite user of the ball, he’s instantly the Saints best runner and is a long-term solution on the wing.
Dougal Howard went from relatively unknown to a Dylan Grimes-Aaron Naughton hybrid in approximately two weeks. Maybe it was my naivety on his upside that factored into this apparent reputation rise, but it was regardless still a quantum leap in value. Finishing last and lapped in the team’s 400-metre time trial back in November, I am unsure what to expect from Howard in 2020. Given his just 45 games over four years and lack of consistency in position and performances, I am probably a little bit cooler than most on how dramatically he will improve the Saints next year. I respect the upside but need to see the output.
The Paddy Ryder pick-up created a bit of a stir. Terry Wallace’s thoughts on Trade Radio 2019 back in October were probably shared by others.
“Paddy Ryder has always wanted to be a main ruckman, not a forward,” he said. “They’ve finally got their man as a ruckman, and now they’re bringing Ryder in? Does he become the number one ruckman, does he become a forward/ruck where he has never sort of settled down?”
I don’t share these concerns. With Billy Longer and Lewis Pierce being delisted, the Saints effectively had no obvious backup in the ruck. It’s a short-term deal, offers some flexibility in attack and actually may even aid Marshall’s development. I think Paddy will buy into his role. It should work.
The loss of Josh Bruce stings. The Saints leading goal kicker in 2015, Bruce was a fabled figure in the Saints forward line. It’s worth noting, however, all Bruce’s production in his time at St Kilda it represents a period of constant mediocrity for the club. I am not saying there is a necessarily a correlation, but if the Saints are gung-ho about change, then not offering the long-term deal Bruce demanded makes sense. If it isn’t working, you need to fix it.
The drafts, free agency and re-signings were all relatively non-events for the Saints this year due mainly to their trade activity. The real results driver will come from the big five, and the consequences of trading picks and salary cap implications will only be able to be analysed when we know who the Saints are.
Other outs Jack Steven and Blake Acres are obviously not ideal, but I have deliberately given little airplay to these departures. Got to look forwards, Sainters.
Age profile
The age of lists has become slightly more in vogue in recent years as pundits try to predict likely risers and fallers. It’s not the most advanced statistic and requires plenty of context, but it can be effective in analysing a team’s general direction.
St Kilda are the seventh-oldest club in the AFL at an average age of 24.3 years old. I find that staggering considering recent seasons and the narrative around the club. It is slightly misleading as the Saints have only eight players over 27 – the equal-lowest number in the league – but the league-high 24 players log-jammed in the 22 to 26-year-old bracket means this list desperately needs some of their recent draft picks to take the next step. Luke Dunstan, Jade Gresham, Jack Lonie, I’m looking at you.
Here is a couple of clubs younger than the Saints: Richmond, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs.
It’s concerning and it’s the reason the activity of the 2019-20 off-season can’t be a one-off. I don’t believe St Kilda can catch those above with natural progression from within; St Kilda need to recruit, draft and ‘moneyball’ their list back to contention.
My best 22
B: Jarryn Geary, Jake Carlisle, Callum Wilkie
HB: Dylan Roberton, Dougal Howard, Hunter Clark
C: Dan Hannebery, Seb Ross, Bradley Hill
HF: Jade Gresham, Tim Membrey, Jack Lonie
F: Dan Butler, Max King, Jack Billings
Foll: Rowan Marshall, Jack Steele, Luke Dunstan
Interchange: Paddy Ryder, Jimmy Webster, Zak Jones, Josh Battle
Depth: Nathan Brown, Logan Austin, Nick Coffield, Nick Hind, Dean Kent, Doulton Langlands, Ben Long, Matthew Parker, Shane Savage, Ryan Abbott, Jack Sinclair
I am bringing the five recruits straight in and a total of ten different faces to their most recent fixture. It’s a big shift from the side that basically watched Buddy’s 300th in Round 23 last year, and it needs to be.
Last year’s 16th-ranked defence for points against rightfully gets two big ins. The Saints will be hoping for instant impact from the returning Dylan Roberton and of course the much-lauded Dougal Howard. The Jake Carlisle-Dougal Howard combination will quickly find out their own natural compatibility in an opening month featuring monster double acts Jack Darling-Josh Kennedy and Jack Riewoldt-Tom Lynch.
The midfield is the area from where any overall improvement will likely generate. The unfashionable but effective Seb Ross remains in the centre, but it’s the Dan Hannebery-Bradley Hill wing combination that has abundant upside. It’s a gut-running duo, which quite frankly makes me feel a bit ill, and I have no doubt the pair will expose a few this year if both remain healthy. I am leaving Jack Steele on the ball as he offers a run with options, and I’m also rolling the dice on Luke Dunstan taking a leap.
With Bruce’s glorious mullet now on show at Whitten Oval the Saints will bring Max King straight in. Most of my knowledge of King is anecdotal, but the upside is obvious and his brother is very fast, so in he comes.
With the inclusion of Bradley Hill I am returning Jack Billings to the forward line. Last year felt a bit experimental. It didn’t necessarily fail, but the Saints may get more value from something like his 2017 output. Billings had 59 shots on goal in 2017 but just 23 last year. For a forward line that ranked 14th for goals per game in 2019, if the Saints get 70-plus shots from Jack, they would be markedly more dangerous.
New recruits Zak Jones and Paddy Ryder start on the bench but Dan Butler gets on the park ahead of a band of sneaky small forwards.
It’s unlikely the Saints will get this 22 on the ground on a consistent basis, but I’m comfortable it’s just about the peak talent they can squeeze on the park. With so many ins, chemistry issues are almost inevitable, and injuries on any line will immediately change the team’s ceiling. It’s a solid 22, but we’ll really have to wait and see what 22 we see on a consistent basis.
(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Rowan Marshall
Champion Data’s most improved player in the AFL in 2019 and the crown jewel of the St Kilda list, big Rowan gets his own heading. Standing at 201 centimetres tall and weighing in at 101 kilograms, the athletic, skilled no-drama Marshall will command a Brodie Grundy-esque payday when his current contract expires in 2022. Until then the Saints can enjoy having their ruckmen covering the ground like few his size.
Marshall is far from the finished product, but just 33 games into his career and at 24 years of age the ceiling on Marshall is skyscraping. The scope for improvement is everywhere. Last year Marshall finished outside the top ten for hit-outs per game and kicked only eight goals. Despite these sore points, he finished the year the 13th-highest averaging SuperCoach player in the AFL sandwiched between Adam Treloar and Clayton Oliver.
His ability to cover the ground, find the football, link up and provide an extra number at contests are essential AFL skills for elite modern-day ruckmen. His traditional ruck skills will improve naturally with time, and there is a chance he can break into the conversation regarding the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy ruck duopoly of recent years.
Marshall surprisingly didn’t win the 2019 best and fairest, but if the Saints can re-sign him beyond 2022, he will win his fair share. While in the red, white and black Marshall will be the barometer for St Kilda. If expected improvement continues, the nature of his position means his performances can directly translate to wins.
However, if Marshall regresses amidst a Patty Ryder ‘ruckgate’ scandal and sides more deeply analyse his on-field antics, the Saints will be struggling like so many times before. There is no more important cog for the future.
(Michael Willson/AFL Photos)
Fixture
It’s more of the same for the Saints in 2020. They play ten Sunday games (up from nine in 2018) and 14 games at Marvel Stadium (up from 11). The Saints will travel six times (down from seven) and get double-ups against Melbourne, Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton and Fremantle. It appears a slightly soft draw, and Simon Lethlean, acting CEO at the time of the fixture publication, said “we are satisfied with the fixture presented by the AFL”.
I feel it’s a bit tougher then the raw stats suggest. A harsh opening month at home will be season-defining: North Melbourne followed by West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne. Round 5 is away to Geelong and Round 6 is at home to Adelaide before the team’s sole Friday night clash: Round 7 against Collingwood. That’s four of my top six in seven weeks. If the Saints can go 3-4, they will be releasing a collective sigh of relief.
The Saints might survive early, and the fixture does begin to open up afterwards, but playing catch-up in the AFL is rarely a winning strategy. An awkward midseason stretch of away games in China to Port Adelaide and Darwin to Gold Coast either side of the bye is about as erratic as an AFL fixture can be.
St Kilda should know who they are by the time they fly to China, but it could all be over by then. It’s a big ask and tough early fixture for a side full of new faces.
The coach
Brett Ratten can coach at AFL level. You don’t usually coach six seasons if you don’t have it. Going at a tick over a 50 per cent win rate for his 126-coached games for both Carlton and St Kilda, Ratten brings plenty to the table. A premiership player with 255 games to his name and a graduate of the now celebrated Alastair Clarkson coaching academy, he brings experience and knowledge this club needs.
The crowning moment of his coaching career to date is the 2010 elimination final against Richmond while helming Carlton. Completely outcoaching Damien Hardwick when charging home from a 26-point half-time deficit to win by 20 points. Shifting Nick Duigan forward surely his greatest magnet move so far.
It’s a big in for St Kilda and possibly the inclusion that prompted the continued changing of the landscape in the 2019 trade period. I am unsure what the 2020 Saints look like under Ratten as the variables at the moment are just too significant, but a three-year contract means he will get his chance to make this his team.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expectations and predictions
St Kilda find themselves in a strange position when it comes to forecasts. Everything about 2020 screams ‘new era’, yet tempering dreams is a well-practised skill for Saints stakeholders. You can’t help but understand the cynicism when trying to pry opinions out of fans for the year ahead. What the Saints do need is enough success to keep Marshall. Internally I am sure this has awkwardly been discussed.
Prediction: 11th to 12th with ten wins and 12 losses
My prediction is a slightly enhanced statistical year with visible improvement. I can see there being stages this season when mathematical finals chances are a talking point, but I think the Saints will fall just short.
The opening seven weeks put St Kilda immediately on the back foot. If they start hot, my prediction flips on its head, but with so many new faces and legitimate finals teams likely to come bolting from the gate, I am going to side with history on this one. History says there can be teething problems, and it could derail this season early.
St Kilda have winnable games littered throughout the fixture. Two games against Carlton, two against Melbourne, a Darwin game against Gold Coast and home games against Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Sydney. There is enough meat on the bone to get excited. Those eight games above I am sure are circled on Brett Ratten’s whiteboard.
The problem is I just can’t seem to find the other five or six wins.
I expect the Saints to look better, feel better and have a positive storyline this season. It should at times be enjoyable, but it feels more of a gap year before the real expectations begin in 2021.
(Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Final words
With most local operators St Kilda are about 30-1 to win the premiership this year, which is almost certainly unders, And that’s okay.
St Kilda surely aren’t using premiership chances to measure success considering their history and the current climate. It’s all about small wins for now. Finals in 2021 or 2022 need to be expected internally and externally.
If the next person to move from the country isn’t going to have to wait five decades for a keyring, it’s going to start now.
The Saints will come marching in at some point, just as long as they stop looking backwards.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
Good comment. I agree that they are a difficult team to gauge at the moment. I think it is unlikely that they will play finals but it should be on the agenda nevertheless. The losing culture must end but fortunately it looks like Brett Ratten is trying to change this from what I have seen. All the new recruits , including Max King and Roberton returning make it tough to anticipate how this will affect the team. I think also think how successful they will be this year will depend on the development of players such as Clark, Coffield, Gresham, Billings, King, Bytel etc. and team continuity. Hill should be a very good recruit providing he is able to stay fit and will solve some of the outside run problems. The back half of last year made me think this team has a lot of good young talent contrary to what a lot of people think and hopefully they have the belief to rise up the ladder this year.
christy olsen
Roar Rookie
The truth is StK is on a knife edge – both drastic improvement and horrific failure are reasonable expectations. I guess that’s sort of true at most clubs, but it is especially the case at the Saints. Here’s why I think so. Why they improve: 1. Quality recruits do live up to expectations. Hill, Howard, Jones, and Ryder all could be very good. They’ve shown results or potential at other clubs. Let’s hope they continue. 2. Mid-career players keep getting better. Wow, this list is long. Membrey, Roberton, Carlisle, Ross, Lonie, Webster, Billings, Dunstan, Steele, Sinclair… have I missed anyone? If these players all stay on the upward trend, that’s a strong group. 3. The young guys make big jumps. There are some quality young players at Moorabin. Will they quickly grow into their potential? Optimistic supporters sure hope so. If these things happen, it is not dreaming to think they might get 15 wins in 2020. Why they fail: 1. Old injuries come back. Every club is afraid of injuries, but StK are probably the closest of any club to complete catastrophe on this front. Who would truly be surprised of Hannebery, King, and Roberton never play another game? They may all be/feel totally healthy today, but the nature of their injuries should make everyone nervous. Add to that Carlisle, Geary, Steele, Webster, and Kent have all missed time due to injury. Things could get very ugly, very quickly. 2. The recruits just don’t work out. There are no guarantees, and looking for a third club can be a sign that a player knows he’s starting to wane. Hill and Ryder are not young, and they might start to show signs of age. Howard is not really a proven commodity; he might never develop into anything memorable. 3. The rest of the list stagnates. StK’s list is dominated by decent, but not fantastic players (as it has been for years). If the majority of those players don’t get much better, they will continue to be a large group of mediocre players. Most of them won’t deserve to be de-listed, but few of them will be worth keeping around. That’s difficult for list management. These three things could completely derail any hope of progress, for years to come. So it seems to me StK is one of the most hard-to-predict sides in the competition. At the end of 2020, I don’t think most people will be surprised, regardless where the Saints sit on the ladder. Any result will seem fitting.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You're not reading...
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
I guess both st kilda and fremantle are rubbish then. Both sides won the same number of games and st kilda's weak squad managed to end fremantle's chance of playing finals last year along with carlton, melbourne and gc.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
So what was it that you were doing? If your way of forming arguments is anything to go by, then you have no authority at all in this discussion lol. Practice what you preach mate.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
That's actually very funny. He won't get what you did there.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You have a weak squad. My first comment made that point. I don't need to reiterate. Just go back and read.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I don't have a problem with your challenge. It's you who has started complaining.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I gave you the reason. Have another read.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
The burden of proof is with you and you have so far failed to provide any compelling arguments for why the recruiting strategy was wrong last year. Who cares if they didn’t draft many players last year in a compromised draft anyway. I am pretty sure 2019 was not the only year the draft started…correct me if I am wrong on that. King and Bytel were highly rated in the 2018 draft and they have not played yet so I am pretty sure drafting is a thing at St Kilda contrary to what you believe.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
It seems some people are too soft and don’t like being confronted about their comments in this forum. Too bad. You said something I didn’t agree with so I challenged it. It honestly doesn’t even matter that Fremantle entered this discussion because it is actually useful to compare the two sides that finished with the same number of wins and used similar approaches with trading in the past few years. I think people have more of problem with you in general bringing them up in every article irrespective of this one. That doesn’t really matter to me because people should be allowed to write whatever they want on here, even if it is beyond the scope of the article. I responded because I wanted to have a discussion comparing St Kilda and Fremantle’s trade strategies in recent times because I think they have been similar. The author of this article actually appreciated that because he said he will write another article about Fremantle soon.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
I think a lot of recruiting was by design and a lot of investigation went into it. Hill said he was contacted during the season about a possible move to St Kilda after the deal was finished. That means that it was clearly planned way in advance rather than just some random choice like you are suggesting. What is wrong with recruiting so called "older" players anyway?
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Nup. I just respond to folk when they try to bait Freo like you did. If you didn't try your little playground, "No you are," argument, Freo would not have entered this thread. You introduced it. Don't complain about the response.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Freo brought in young West Australians. Saints are going for old folk from anywhere.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You're struggling with this. Explain away your lack of drafting. With all your trades for old people, The Saints will have to go for a rebuild...again...in two years time.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to see how they go in the first few weeks of the season. The season could be over by r5 if they don’t get those important early wins. Hopefully they can surprise everybody but I am tempering my expectations. You just get sick of seeing disappointment every year so hopefully this year will be different . I think u are right that the internal development of the existing squad is where most of the improvement will be derived from in the end .
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
You have been commenting on this website for far longer than me and I have noticed it is you who has the much greater tendency to change the topic of discussion in articles to Fremantle, even though most of the time the articles have nothing to do with freo. I have only been commenting since December 2019 so it too short a time for u to draw that conclusion about me. Nice try though
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
That’s the spirit. Towing the same line all the time is boring . It is fun to stir up the hornets nest than just stick to formula ...
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
And how is this a problem? Fremantle did that two years ago when they brought in all these players so I suppose you are saying they made the wrong moves too then
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
I think you are comparing apples and oranges mate. Neale is one of the best midfielders in the league now and was already very good when he played at Fremantle. Neale was only in his mid 20s when he left Fremantle and is now playing career best football at Brisbane. The Neale trade easily warranted a 1st round pick. That has nothing to do with Fremantles ability to negotiate or get deals done. If anything they failed and let one of the best mids in the league leave for an unknown quantity draft pick. The Steven situation was completely different. He is at the end of his career, past his prime and then there are his reported personal problems. I think at best st kilda could have extracted an 3rd round pick for him, which I believe Geelong didn’t have anyway. They could have held him to contract but that would be bad optics and o am sure there is a lot more to that deal than meets eye. Are you saying u have all the facts and information about all these trades and know everything about right down to the contract details? From what you have said, u seem to believe u are some kind of authority when it comes to trading . If freo were as good as you make out them out to be with trading and managing players, they wouldn’t be losing all these great players to other clubs anyway.