Last month I predicted my top eight for the season ahead – a bold move before the season has even started, which no doubt will come back to bite me.
There seems to be consensus among about a couple of teams making the top eight, including the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm.
As always, the positions hardest to pick were seventh and eighth, with options including the Brisbane Broncos, Newcastle Knights, Wests Tigers and Cronulla Sharks.
But the one team I didn’t include in my top eight, who many fans think will reverse their fortunes after missing the finals for the last two years, is North Queensland.
On paper, the Cowboys are easily one of the most talented teams in the competition – it wouldn’t be too far a stretch to see them in the top four come September.
Jason Taumalolo is only a couple of years into a massive ten-year deal and shows no signs of slowing down, John Asiata is an exciting player who has shown his ball-playing skills on multiple occasions, and Kyle Feldt is one of the best finishers in the game.
I haven’t even mentioned Valentine Holmes yet. Some are sceptical as to whether Holmes will have the same impact he had before taking a hiatus to play NFL, likening the situation to the Jarryd Hayne experiment, which failed when Hayne returned to rugby league to play for the Gold Coast Titans.
One of the key differences between Holmes and Hayne is that the latter returned midway through the season, while Holmes has had the benefit of a full pre-season. What’s more, his form during the trials suggests he is fit and in a strong position to have a year similar to 2018, when he was a stand out for the Queensland Maroons in three State of Origins.
Valentine Holmes (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Then there’s what we’ve seen in the preseason.
While I don’t take too much away from the Nines or trials, it would be hard not to get excited about the Cowboys following what we saw in Perth – particularly the pace of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who scored four tries during the tournament.
Scott Drinkwater had five try assists and three tries across the two days, while Taumalolo and Coen Hess both made seven tackle breaks, which was immense.
Despite all that, I have reservations.
Even with all this talent on the field, if North Queensland are going to make the finals, the big change that needs to take place is the way Paul Green coaches.
We became accustomed to boring football in 2019. They were slow and predictable and must hold the record for block plays in a season.
If Green approaches 2020 in the same way, Cowboys fans will be staring down the barrel of disappointment.
And what a shame that would be, given they have one of the most dynamic spines in the competition, featuring the likes of Michael Morgan, Holmes and either Jake Clifford or Scott Drinkwater.
For this combination to shine, they need to play free-flowing rugby league – like the squad did at the Nines.
Photo by James Worsfold/Getty Images
The other challenge the coach had last year was sticking with some of his older players at the expense of young talent coming through.
To be fair, Gideon Gela-Mosby and Javid Bowen certainly didn’t live up to expectations. But if Green persists with Justin O’Neill instead of giving the likes of Murray Taulagi an opportunity, he risks losing his young talent. I’ve already mentioned Tabuai-Fidow, who I hope will be upgraded from a development contract during this season.
The Cowboys have all the ingredients to be one of the most exciting teams in the competition, but premierships aren’t won on paper, so I’m still backing them to miss out.
But North Queensland fans, I invite you to bookmark this article and remind me of this prediction at the end of the year.
I hope I’m wrong and that the new stadium creates a fortress for supporters to enjoy.
If I’m right though, that means the end of Paul Green, who needs his team to make the top eight if he is to continue as coach.
Rob
Guest
Cyclone is tracking away from the coast I believe. With the rent issue, food and drink cost a fortune at the football but you still have line ups 10 deep for it? 15000 tickets for 13 game will get $5 million by my maths. Stadium naming rights? It will hopefully get concerts and other sports maybe using it. The government have given NQ an old trotting track which locals had to turn into a football stadium to play out of for 25 years ? I think we are worth it when Titans had one built after going bankrupt 3 times? Your point about 2000km away is very self centred. The 500000 people that live north of Mackay sort of have a long way to travel if we are only thinking stadiums should exist in the big smoke. It cost significantly more to live in regional areas because we get little from our government but we produce significantly more to the economy than our city cousins.
Rob
Guest
In reality Hayne was worth just under 2.3 points a game and Holmes is currently worth just over 3.5 points a game. Hayne won 43% of games and Holmes has won 60% at NRL and Origin. Jarrod was good but not very consistent with 3 good seasons and about 6 or 7 bog average ones. Holmes is well ahead for consistency in my book.
Rob
Guest
I've loved what Cooper has done over his career especially in a Cowboys jersey. A real warrior but unfortunately his was past it in 2018. He was missing tackles, making errors and struggling to keep up last year. He's going down hill every week now. Wright and Hess are better propositions at playing a solid 80min now. If he's still just playing to baby sit Morgan 28 and Taumalolo 26 in a leadership capacity they are not leadership material IMO. Might as well get Clifford in and see if he can become a general.
Rob
Guest
Have the Cowboys been playing Green ball or Thurston ball? The attack and selections had been Thurston centric for a very long time. Last year was a transition but became a disaster through injuries which is hard for any coach.
Rob
Guest
Albo, I would like to see Clifford (7) and Drinkwater (6) in the halves because they gel really well and complement each other. Morgan would be at centre until he gets his confidence back after 2 years of injuries. Clifford looks lost playing at 6 with Morgan at 7 IMO.
Rob
Guest
The last time the Cowboys played in a GF. JT wasn't in the team? The 2015 Premiership win was achieved partly because O'neil scored under the post and despite 3 Thurston errors leading directly to 10 of the Broncos points? Interesting that O'nell also won 62% of games last year and was in the sides that beat Raiders and Eels away? It's funny how O'neil was also absent in the Cowboys 4 biggest losses last year?
kk
Roar Pro
In total agreement, souvalis. A new look Hess is back in town. If Morgan stays free of concussions those two in form will be vital in the Cowboys making the 8.
Nick Symonds
Guest
Townsville is about 2000km north from where I live, so I won't be going there myself. They're also expecting cyclonic winds and monsoonal rain from TC Gretel. Might be difficult conditions for the players.
HarlanKemp
Roar Rookie
Hampton’s the only weakness in that backline – and that’s only because he’s out of position. Let him compete for number 3 or number 14 and bring in a legitimate winger…then you’ve got one of the strongest backlines in the NRL (if mostly untested together). Yes, Hampton’s played FB for the Cowboys before (and so the intent might be to interchange with Holmes in the early games). But so has Drinkwater, Feldt and Morgan. The Cowboys feel short one or two legitimate wingers. The current squad should be legitimate contenders for the crown this year. If it turns out they’re not contenders and miss the finals, it’s only natural you start examining game plans and selections. Not Morgan’s kicking game.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Would put Molo in as well. He's been very good off the bench. I have high hopes for him .
KenW
Roar Rookie
On the Holmes v Haynes comparison. You're absolutely right that the circumstances are different - coming back for a full pre-season rather than parachuting in mid-season. But they are also very different categories of player. Even at 22 (the age when Holmes left the NRL) Hayne already had a Dally M, RLIF player of the year, NSW player of the year, rookie of the year Dally M, winger of the year Dally M. A few years later when he left for the US (and got actual NFL game time), he had tripled that list of awards. Holmes achievement list at 22: Cronulla player of the year. I'm not death-riding the bloke, he's clearly got talent and might go on to be one of the top players in the comp. But he's never been that to this point of his career.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Couldn't agree more Albo . Morgs is a running 6 or even a centre who has enough skill to fit in at 7 when the need arises but he's far from a natural 7. His kicking consistently let's him down. He has a nice little chip to the corner and a reasonable grubber but his bomb and his long kicking are not nrl standard.. I was hoping Green had worked this out over the summer but it's a worry. Clifford has a good long kick . Don't know about Drinkwater or even Robson. Gee I hope Robson can kick . It's worth a mint to have a nine with a kicking game. All will be revealed on Fri but if Morgs does all our kicking , look away.
Albo
Roar Rookie
I sort of agree with you. I think Morgan is a great runner of the football who in recent times has done little running and tried to assume the ball player role , with but mixed success. He has laid on a few passes but mucked up plenty as well, and he has stopped running the ball. To me he is not comfortable in a halves role apart from running off JT. I would actually play him at fullback ( and put Holmes on the wing which I reckon is his best position) , and then Morgan can inject himself into backline moves either side of the ruck with his running game. I too would give Clifford & Drinkwater some time to develop in the halves. But I guess Green will persist with trying to make Morgan a ball playing half and control the kicking again with mixed success ?
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
Nick, are you heading to the game this week? If so, an update would be great!
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
James, that is a really interesting question and one I haven't considered!
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
When I saw the Ben Hampton selection, Les I just thought 'the more things change, the more they stay the same'.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
The Barry, I always feel more comfortable when you agree with me! :laughing: Message to the Cowboys.... please no more block plays.
Nick Symonds
Guest
Keep an eye on their stadium deal. A report by KPMG found that the annual cost of running and maintaining a stadium comes to around 4 percent of the cost of construction. So for a stadium that costs $293 million to build, that would be $11.72 million per year. How much of that will the Cowboys be paying in rent? And how much will beer, food and parking cost?
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Tell me if I’m wrong but (Other than Lolo) the only forward who’s spilt consistent blood for that club the last couple of seasons I mean buckets is Gavin Cooper. I’ve seen him cop some terrible hidings trooping the ball back into the teeth of the ruck, all 35 years of him, getting up aching all over doing it again, playing the full 80 , nothing grubby, rarely missing a game..the pack needs more Tarzan hearts like his and fewer Janes..then that back line can add the finishing touches.