Sebastian Vettel’s two most significant career decisions have a fascinating symmetry.
His most recent, Tuesday’s announcement that his once dream-team pairing with Ferrari would fade into dissolution at the end of the season, came after his usurping at the hands of junior teammate Charles Leclerc in 2019.
In sport you’re only as good as your last performance, and Ferrari’s 2021 contract offering reflected this renewed dynamic. Vettel, a man justly proud of his standing as a four-time champion, balked at renewing terms of equal stature to his junior teammate and walked.
It bore striking resemblance to his first major move, his shock decision to join Ferrari for 2015.
Then, as now, he was facing a beating at the hands of new junior teammate Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull Racing. Then, as now, he thought it better to rebuild his fortunes elsewhere and on his own terms, even if that’s likely to mean early retirement.
Red Bull said goodbye and ‘Danke’ to Sebastian Vettel. (Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool)
And, crucially, on both occasions his decision has had substantial implications on the driver market.
Once news of Vettel’s Ferrari split had sunk in, any Australian reader will surely have thought that these were high times to be an F1 fan. Ricciardo, F1 darling, seven-time race winner and out-of-contract Renault driver, is perfectly positioned to become the first Down Under driver to race for Ferrari.
Ricciardo’s credentials are undoubted. Having established himself by beating reigning champion Vettel in his own team in 2014, he solidified his reputation with his characteristic late-braking style, wringing performance from the car and leaving no prisoners on the track.
Off the circuit, Ricciardo presents a similarly attractive package as an apolitical, easygoing operator and hard worker, exactly the kind of personality the rebuilding Ferrari requires.
The timing for Ricciardo is critical. His Renault gamble, already looking unfavourable after a disappointing 2019 showing, has had its odds lengthened substantially by the extensions of the current regulations until at least 2021. The French manufacturer has no chance of winning races on merit without a rules revolution, meaning an extension to terms would do nothing more than waste another precious season of the Australian’s prime.
But for all the positives to picking Ricciardo, signing him alongside Leclerc comes with risks. The Australian would join only if he were given equal status, which would risk destabilising a team already so prone to internal ructions.
While this might be ameliorated by the fact the pair are clearly in different stages of their careers, with eight years of age and six and a half seasons of experience separating them, Ferrari’s long-term bet on Leclerc may mean keeping him happy is the principal priority.
Fortunately there’s another ready-made option, ironically a man who earnt his F1 debut owing to the knock-on effects of Vettel’s switch from Red Bull Racing to Ferrari in 2015: Carlos Sainz.
Carlos Sainz Jr (Olaf Pignataro/Red Bull Content Pool)
Sainz has been Formula One’s quiet achiever since that debut five seasons ago, but his 2019 move to McLaren delivered something of a breakout. A maiden podium in Brazil was just reward for what was one of the year’s most consistent season-long performances, which culminated in a hugely impressive sixth in the title standings.
With only the independently funded McLaren bidding for his services, he would come substantially cheaper than Ricciardo, who’s reportedly earning somewhere in the vicinity of $45 million from his French automotive behemoth. What’s more, at 25 years old and without a race win, he’d be more easily massaged into a supporting role for Leclerc.
But Sainz is no pushover, and a honeymoon period with Leclerc would likely last only so long. Ferrari might be buying itself long-term pain for short-term gain. Sainz’s lack of frontrunning experience would also leave the team with a very junior line-up.
There are other potential options, but all are unlikely.
Lewis Hamilton has strongly suggested he’ll stay at Mercedes and would anyway be a major destabilising risk to Leclerc. Valtteri Bottas is valued by Mercedes for his apolitical nature and anyway had his strongest ever season in 2019. Ferrari junior Antonio Giovinazzi has failed to impress in his single F1 season to date. Stop mentioning Fernando Alonso.
It’s a 50-50 split. Five years the senior of the pair, Ricciardo needs it more. If not Ferrari in 2021, then what? The Australian may be tempted to take Sainz’s place at McLaren if the Spaniard were successful, but Woking is no more likely than Enstone to coincide delivery with the Australian’s peak years. Better to risk it all in a showdown with Leclerc than wallow as a journeyman.
But needing is one thing and getting’s another, and Sainz is rumoured in the Italian media to be top of the list, if not simply because of his stronger 2019. How Ferrari navigates its choice, laden with meaning for the sport’s medium term, will be fascinating.
A final word for Sebastian Vettel, the man who’s kicked off this unexpected madness. The German has one season — whatever that might amount to in these pandemic times — to end his Ferrari tenure and almost certainly his F1 career on a high after three seasons of disappointment.
But while the moral of his story might be to reinforce that you’re only as good as your last performance, his four championships shouldn’t be diminished in the assessment of his legacy sure to follow. Fitting that he would seemingly choose retirement to defend their value.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
There's a reason why no-one mentioned him. Because he has retired from F1. Some people (including Alonso himself maybe) may not think so but that is the case. He won't be back just because he's driven for Renault before. That was 11 years ago! If they haven't before, people should now stop with the 'is Alonso coming back to F1' chat because that's all dead in the water.
T Bradley
Roar Rookie
Alonso!
HR
Roar Rookie
Yeah, I would expect Renault to leave before Mercedes too – they weren’t happy about the reduced salary cap, so I imagine that money is pretty tight there (and I think that Ghosn was a big backer of their push to rejoin the circus as a manufacturer, so that impetus might have gone with him). The comment about Mercedes leaving was in the context of the possible effects on Ricciardo’s prospects with McLaren – I don’t think that Renault will affect that either way, sadly, because it doesn’t look like they’re good enough to challenge McLaren even with both of them running Renault power units, never mind when McLaren gets the Mercedes PU. If Mercedes withdrew from F1 though, it would leave space at the front of the field that McLaren might have a chance to move into (though it’s quite possible that AM/RP would basically join forces with the current Mercedes team as the factory team). A Mercedes withdrawal would also be interesting in the context of the driver market – I wonder how likely it would be that Hamilton would continue in F1? He has intimated in the past that he might be interested in more ecologically friendly forms of racing, and if Mercedes withdrew from F1 and moved their focus to FE, putting Hamilton in the FE seat would raise the profile of the sport massively while simultaneously making it far more likely that Mercedes would dominate that category too.
Simoc
Guest
That would be true. A move would be a vote of no confidence in Renault and his own ability to get what he wants. Renault spent the first part of 2019 going backwards and that was partly due to Dans own misreading of the cars aerodynamics (he said). I can't see Ricciardo winning a WDC at McLaren so maybe he is just going to take the money like he has done at Renault. The journeyman now until he retires or starts losing to his number 2. Verstappen and Leclerc have passed him in importance and next we will see Ocon do the same.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I don't think Mercedes is likely to leave F1, but Renault might be given the current financial environment, particularly if good results aren't forthcoming.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I don't know if I could see Alonso returning with Renault. He keeps talking about returning to F1 only if he's got a competitive seat, and Renault won't be winning races in 2021, and it'd still be a gamble for 2022. But maybe he really wants to come back to F1 more than he's letting on. I guess the Mercedes engine package and McLaren's substantial turnaround last season looks convincing enough for Ricciardo to consider the move. You also couldn't help but read this as a vote of no confidence in the Renault project considering, as you say, conditions for him are pretty favourable there otherwise.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
All moves should be announced today, I think. The Spanish media have reported Sainz has allowed McLaren to make a counteroffer, which might slow down matters, but I can't see it stopping the inevitable.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I largely agree with you. I don't think Sainz would be agreeing to join Ferrari in a second-driver capacity. But it would be easier for Ferrari to push him into that role if he's beaten by Leclerc early — as I think he would be as he adjusts to the team — than it would Ricciardo, whose race-winning history would give him a better defence. In any case, that's apparently a factor in Ferrari's decision, along with cost.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
You can't come on here and leave us in suspense Craig. Now back yourself up.
T Bradley
Roar Rookie
There's actually another name that strangely noone has mentioned yet...I have pretty good info on it!
Simoc
Guest
Ferrari look to be going backwards. Alonso couldn't win with them but went close. Vettel didn't go so close while the Mercs keep getting stronger. So Dan may pick up the odd win with Ferrari but he's been there done that. I reckon he should stay at Renault. He's made a fortune from them and is their number one driver. It'de look pretty bad for him if he went to McLaren and gets beaten by Ocon in the Renault. The Renault strategy was based on the rule changes which have been put off so now we can enjoy another Hamilton WDC and a few good moments for Red Bull and maybe Ferrari. Of course, the other possibility is Alonso back at Renault.
Ragnar
Guest
Fortunately there’s another ready-made option? Are you Australian? Do you want to see an Australian win the world title?
HR
Roar Rookie
I would expect Dan to move to either Ferrari or McLaren, depending on which way Ferrari go. Renault is a basket-case that have clearly failed to deliver on Abiteboul's promises. Losing their prime management backing when Ghosn went all Great Escape seems to have irreparably damaged their capacity to scrounge together a sufficient budget to build a competitive car, and it seems more likely that they'll leave the sport entirely than get back to challenging for championships. McLaren look like they have potential, and if they can be top of the midfield with a Renault powerplant then it will be interesting to see what they can do with the Mercedes engine, particularly if Merc do end up withdrawing from the sport as a team in their own right and go back to engine supply only.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
In comparison to Ricciardo, I can see Sainz fitting into the "supporting role" more easily. I think that's what Michael meant. Nobody's completely happy with number 2 but it's Ferrari!
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
It'd be a shame. I'd love to see Dan challenging for the title again. But both Ricciardo and Sainz have merit to drive for Ferrari. Indeed, if you're looking for a number 2, that role would probably be best played by Sainz (with all due respect to him). Ricciardo is an aggressive driver, who was annoyed when Verstappen was given preference at times at Red Bull. Ricciardo won't take number 2 easily - he would have to rein in his driving style to comply. No trademark dive bomb overtakes I fear.
Dexter The Hamster
Roar Rookie
Michael, your "he’d be more easily massaged into a supporting role for Leclerc" comment is an interesting one. I cannot see Sainz happy with that, he didn't exactly take a back seat to Max when they were at TR together, even though Max was the chosen one. Love to see Danny Ric in the red, but seems Carlos has been picked for now. Good luck to him. In fairness, McLaren might win a WC before Ferrari anyway.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
All the word is now firmly that it will Sainz. Which I find difficult to fathom since he is fast enough to hold his own and beat Verstappen so there is little reason to think he won't match Leclerc.... Would Carlos sign a number 2 driver contract? Ferrari have always had a number 1 and a number 2. Would he sign it thinking he could usurp Charles from within? Does he have the temperament to stay cool in a number 2 role Kimi or Valteri style? Even Webber and Rubens eventually lost patience and they are not exactly hot heads. I hope it is Grosjean so everyone's head explodes!
chris
Guest
I doubt Ricciardo will get to go to Ferrari. Looks like it will be Sainz. Would have been great to see an Aussie in a Ferrari. I think they announce it over the next few days?
Micko
Roar Rookie
It would be unfortunate if they overlook Dan in favour of Sainz, but you can understand it since they seem to clearly want to build around Leclerc as a #1 driver.