It’s been a long time since we’ve had five new coaches in a single AFL season, and their fortunes have varied from premiership dark horse to historically bad wooden spooners.
Barring objective negligence, nobody should be getting anywhere close to sacked after just one year in the job, but that doesn’t mean we can’t look at how this year’s rookie quintet have gone.
So, with just a few weeks to go this season, let’s see how all five have fared.
Matthew Nicks (Adelaide Crows)
18th, 0-13, 54.9%
What’s gone right
Adelaide Oval is still standing and we haven’t heard anything about their preseason activities.
It’s very hard to find positives for a side that is all but guaranteed to win the wooden spoon and will almost certainly finish the season winless.
This year is all about unearthing the young guns of the future and, so far, they looked to have found two gems in Chayce Jones and Fisher McAsey. Jones is in the top five amongst rising star eligible players for contested possessions, tackles and clearances. At just 20, he’ll only get better.
McAsey, on the other hand, hasn’t looked out of place as a key defender despite being just 19 years old.
What’s gone wrong
Just about everything else.
Virtually the only stats they aren’t dead last for, in terms of differential, are hitouts and free kicks. Yippee.
They average 46 fewer disposals than their opponents per game, 14 fewer inside 50s (nobody else is worse than -8), eight fewer tackles and ten fewer clearances.
Injuries have also gotten in the way a bit and, despite going youth-first, the Crows haven’t had a rising star nominee yet.
Of course, they also haven’t won a game. Writing anything else beyond this point would just be flogging a dead horse.
What needs to happen
A proper cleanout. The Crows are further away from contending than the Williamstown Seagulls, so it’s time to get aggressive, stock up on draft picks and endure an expansion-era GWS-style rebuild.
Grade
I am not suggesting for a second that Matthew Nicks’ job should be under any pressure, but you can’t be at this point in the season without winning a game and expect anything other than an F.
Things can hardly have gone worse for Nicks and the Crows in 2020. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
David Teague (Carlton)
12th, 6-7, 97.1%
What’s gone right
The Blues have won six games for the first time since 2017 – and we’re only three quarters of the way through a shortened season – and are a chance of finishing at even-stevens or higher for the first time since 2013.
They’re still in the thick of the finals hunt (although the loss to Collingwood on the weekend hurts) and, for the first time in a long time, are clearly not amongst the competition’s worst teams.
David Teague has finally made the Blues worthy of respect and given them a great foundation to build off.
What’s gone wrong
If Carlton do miss the finals, which looks likely, they’ll have to look back at performances like Sunday’s and wonder what could have been. Their second-half flop against the Pies and their collapse after quarter-time against the Hawks in Round 9 will likely haunt them over the offseason.
I’ve seen some commentary over the fact only two of their six wins have been by more than ten points, but I don’t think there’s not much in it.
What has been a worry has been the extent they’ve been dominated aerially inside defensive 50. Charlie Dixon (seven marks inside 50), Jack Riewoldt (five), Jack Gunston, Josh Kennedy (three each) and the entire St Kilda forward line all had their way with Carlton’s defence at times this year.
What needs to happen
Carlton will have their eye on a few trade targets in the offseason, namely Zac Williams and Tom Papley. Picking up either, or addressing their weaknesses on the outside of the midfield by other means, will go a long way to putting them in finals contention next season.
Grade
Getting to the finals would improve this to an A, but so far Teague and co. deserve plaudits for their 2020 efforts. B
David Teague’s Blues have picked up where they left off in 2020. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Justin Longmuir (Fremantle)
14th, 5-8, 89.1%
What’s gone right
Like Teague at Carlton, Justin Longmuir has got Freo deserving the respect of the competition once more after some absolute basket-case years in the latter half of Ross Lyon’s tenure.
He’s got Matt Taberner finally starting to deliver on his immense promise, which is even more impressive considering the limited contribution of Rory Lobb and Jesse Hogan’s absence.
Finals may be out of the question, but their 5-8 record is somewhat misleading too – they’ve been a lot better than that. Their 4-0 start could have easily been 3-1 and, when you factor in the unlucky nature of their loss to Carlton, they could be as good as 9-4 with some better play in the late stages.
What’s gone wrong
It was a problem that plagued Lyon forever, so it’d be harsh to criticise Longmuir for not fixing it in less than a year, but the Dockers still can’t score.
I know we’re in a shortened season, but Freo have just 647 points to their name through 13 matches – second-worst in the AFL. They’ve reached full time with a score of 50 or less on six occasions in 2020 – that simply won’t cut it no matter how long quarters are.
It’s not entirely on the forwards – Freo are 17th for inside 50s per game – but they simply won’t be a contender until they get that part of their game right.
What needs to happen
With only two players over the age of 30 (with one of them being a 35-year-old playing like he’s 25), Fremantle have enviously few crucial list decisions to make in the offseason. With plenty of games being pumped into the 24-and-under bracket, staying the course from here should see them back in the finals race either this year or next.
Grade
I don’t think the Dockers were a finals-quality side this season, but the fact they’re out of the race already is not reflective of how they’ve played this season. I’ll generously award them a B-.
Longmuir has had a solid debut season. (Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )
Rhyce Shaw (North Melbourne)
17th, 3-11, 76.3%
What’s gone right
North shot out of the blocks with a 2-0 start, notching an impressive come-from-behind win over the Saints before shocking everyone by knocking off the Giants at home. What’s that? I have to write more?
Some of North’s younger brigade have stepped up in a big way this season, including Jy Simpkin and Tarryn Thomas (before injury struck), while some of the prime-aged candidates have either enjoyed career-best form (Trent Dumont, Jed Anderson) or a complete career revival (Luke McDonald).
Todd Goldstein’s renaissance has been great to watch too.
What’s gone wrong
Since Round 2, the Kangaroos have only sung the song once and that was after they emphatically stole the lollipop out of baby Adelaide’s hands.
Thomas’ season-ending injury was a huge blow. He wouldn’t have made them a contender, but his development was cause for great optimism.
North, whose list is of almost identical age and experience to Richmond’s, have simply been exposed as lacking the class to compete and need to go back to the drawing board.
They also need to cop some heat over some embarrassing injury management, with both Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington withdrawing in the first quarter of their returns from injury with the exact same ailment.
What needs to happen
In some ways, this was the recession North had to have. They kicked the tires under the last few years of Brad Scott’s regime for no meaningful progress and, now that a new coach hasn’t waved his wand, they finally have to buckle up and clean things out properly.
I worry their journey is just beginning, but at least it is beginning.
Also, please lose the pinstripes from your jumper next season.
Grade
Given Shaw only joined the club in any capacity last season, he can’t really be held responsible for the years of inconsistent list management that have finally manifested in a poor 2020. He does, however, need to be marked down for some awful injury management and, therefore, gets a C-.
Rhyce Shaw, in happier times. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Brett Ratten (St Kilda)
7th, 8-6, 113.3%
What’s gone right
For the most part, St Kilda’s bold recruitment strategy over the offseason has paid off. Dan Butler has been the bargain of the year, while Brad Hill, Zak Jones, Paddy Ryder and Dougal Howard have all contributed to what’s been a strong rise up the ladder.
People have been quick to forget they finished 14th with nine wins last season – the fact they’re in the thick of the race despite being eight years removed from their last finals appearance is a great success no matter how you spin it.
What’s gone wrong
Squandered leads.
If the Saints do end up missing the finals from here, which is suddenly very possible, people will incorrectly point to last week’s three-point loss to Melbourne as the culprit. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
If they fall short, St Kilda will have their Round 1 loss to North Melbourne and Round 6 loss to Fremantle to blame. They held a 29-point lead over the Kangaroos at halftime before scoring just one goal in the second half to fall by two.
Then, against the then-bottom four Dockers, they scored just one goal across the second and third quarters to see a 30-point lead at the first break turn into a six-point loss.
St Kilda clearly have designs on going places and that stuff just can’t be happening.
What needs to happen
There are few obvious holes in the list right now, with both key positions, the ruck, small forward and outside midfield spots covered. They could probably use another piece in the midfield – maybe a Crouch brother? – but general improvement across the board should be enough to make them a contender soon.
Grade
If Ratten gets the Saints to ‘September’, he deserves a mention in the coach of the year award. For now, he’s one of the frontrunners, but he needs to get it right over the next few weeks. A-
Brett Ratten will be hoping for a stronger finish to the season. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Blitz
Guest
History proves that rebuilds can and have worked for some clubs. For most clubs it doesn’t but for a select few it has. Saying that they NEVER bear fruit is a false generalisation. Hawks were near the bottom of the ladder in the early-mid 2000’s and went on to win 4 flags. Geelong were floundering in Thompson’s early years and they won 3 flags. WC bottomed out around 2010 in the middle of their cultural rebuild when they admitted that winning games of footy was not the priority - they’ve since played off in two GF’s and won one. GWS is a build from the ground up but it can also be categorised as a rebuild even though the “re” isn’t relevant seeing that it was their first “build”. I get your point and agree with it in principle but it’s not as cut and dry as you are making it out to be. In saying that, free agency has given some clubs a significant advantage when it comes to topping up eg Tom Lynch to Tigers for free!
Simoc
Guest
What nonsense Disniackerie, GWS up until this season have been the most entertaining team playing the AFL game. Great skills combined with not the best coaching don't win you the big ones.
Simoc
Guest
And that thanks to having the ex WCE , CEO at the helm.
Simoc
Guest
And that's what Ross Lyon said when he came to Freo. It was a long term finals team he was developing, not a run at the flag and the abyss, like others and he got.
Macca
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing: No evidence it works, as long as you ignore all the evidence. And if there is no evidence a rebuild works and you give no evidence of any alternative existing I suppose the blue should have just sat back for that "statistical certainty" to kick in.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
That's a long list of excuses & assumptions you've just made for various clubs to fit your narrative, Macca. Mines pretty simple. There is no evidence that rebuilds work. There is plenty of evidence that it results in horrific football for sustained periods with little to no reward. I'm glad you agree with me on GWS. I'm glad you agree with me on Brisbane. Essendon is a joke. I agree with you. They're a bunch of cheats to boot. Have a nice evening.
Macca
Roar Rookie
"This is going nowhere nice for you, Macca."I am pretty happy. Once again you offer no alternatives - pretty pointless saying what the blues did was wrong if you can't say what was right. " Geelong’s worst period yielded more finals than your boys have played in a long time." What was it 1 in 6 years? And how did you get out of that mess? Was it largely built on going hard at the draft around the turn of the century helped by some very generous father son concessions? As for the Lions, lets start the rebuild when they got it right instead of chasing Fev or having a coach and board that made it unattractive for young players to stay there. I would say when Matthews joined the board, so end of 2013. "GWS is a classic example of why rebuilds don’t work." :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: "Again, sooner or later a team will come good with the right coach and support team. It’s a statistical certainty, like I’ve said many times before." And yet there is Essendon. They keep trying to top up and have largely snubbed the draft (2 first rounders in 2015, McGrath at 1 in 2016 & Snelling at 7 in 2018) in the last few years and yet the stay stagnate around the middle of the table.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Brisbane had been rubbish for 14 years before making the finals again. When do you want to start their rebuild? Is it conveniently 5-years ago to suit your narrative by any chance? Again, sooner or later a team will come good with the right coach and support team. It's a statistical certainty, like I've said many times before. GWS is a classic example of why rebuilds don't work. The closest they've come is Liam crashing his gifted Ferrari last year in the GF. Using them as an example is poor form. This club has been handed ludicrous concessions, beyond anything any club will ever receive again, yet played horrific football for most of its infancy. It's now struggling to make the eight despite hundreds of millions dumped into it by the AFL. What makes you think if the AFL cannot make it work, Carlton can, or any other club for that matter by copying this method? For the record: Geelong's worst period yielded more finals than your boys have played in a long time. They never finished close to the bottom or had to endure the embarrassment of a wooden spoon. Something your boys know well and hold the AFL record in. This is going nowhere nice for you, Macca. I'd drop it.
ScottyJ
Roar Rookie
That answers my next question Don. Was gonna ask if you think hes in our best 22 if we were injury free.
Macca
Roar Rookie
“Because they don’t do bull$h1t rebuilds, Macca.”If you say so, but death comes to us all. Just out of interest how many finals did Geelong play in between 1998 and 2003? “Geelong hasn’t built anything off concessions.”So father Son picks aren’t concessions? “That doesn’t occur without some serious deliberate tanking” It certainly can. But which games do you think the blues tanked in? “There is a little thing called the Salary Cap, Macca. It inhibits stockpiling.” And the you end up like GWS, having a consistently competitive side while taking multiple first round picks each year as clubs poach your surplus talent. ” David Teague has an average team at present. It’s old, slow with no midfield. No wonder SOS was sacked. Great ‘rebuild’ there Macca. Why? Because all the young talent either gets burnt out from losing,”Nothing to do with players leaving – simply the age of (and injuries to) the players we recruited to play in the middle. Dow, O’brien, Stocker, Kemp, Philp, Ramsay and Honey are all coming through, Setterfield is progressing nicely and we will go out and chase established players like Williams. And if you think this method “will never work”(despite teams like Brisbane and GWS achieving it in very recent history) then what was the blues alternative in 2015? Once you are down that far this is the only way out. You hit on the issue with an alternative when you said ” for teams like Geelong to poach” teams on the bottom can’t poach top talent, teams at the top can offer them far less money and still pick them up. All teams at the bottom can do is what the Lions did, build a culture where the elite draft talent wants to stay and then as soon as you get close to contention go poaching.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I think he is Mundy slow. He just looks slow...ish because his smoothness is so laconic. Blakely would be a first 22 player in every other team in the AFL. He's good enough to win a Doig medal if he was given some game time.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Your boys have won 2 out of the last 5 wooden spoons, along with finishing near the bottom for the rest. That doesn't occur without some serious deliberate tanking. If you want to be naive about this... so be it. It won't stop me calling it out for what it is. There is potentially nothing bright about Carlton's future by tanking and stock piling talent. Nothing. You'll get out of jail eventually, simply because a coach will come along that puts an end to this rubbish. Whether it be 10, 20, 30 years?... it's a statistical certainty. However, it will have nothing to do with a 'rebuild'. There is a little thing called the Salary Cap, Macca. It inhibits stockpiling. All the Blues are doing is training up talent for teams like Geelong to poach. It's idiotic at best. I'll never understand why clubs, and fans like yourself, believe this will ever work, because it never has or will. Case in point: David Teague has an average team at present. It's old, slow with no midfield. No wonder SOS was sacked. Great 'rebuild' there Macca. Why? Because all the young talent either gets burnt out from losing, gets traded for more draft picks or increases in value to the point where Carlton can no longer keep them under the Salary Cap. Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat. Sound familiar to you, Macca? It should, because that's Carlton's AFL history summarised in one paragraph for you. Geelong hasn't built anything off concessions. Geelong have lost more grand finals in AFL history than any other club. They just happen to have been in more grand finals than any other club too. They have the best winning percentage in AFL history, along with being involved in more finals campaigns than any other club. Perhaps they finally took their opportunity, Macca? Did you ever think of that or have Geelong been receiving concessions for the past 30 years? Why are they one of the most successful AFL clubs? Because they don't do bull$h1t rebuilds, Macca.
ScottyJ
Roar Rookie
I agree with you re Margetts. With Fyfe and Darcy frees ignored or given the wrong way. How Mumford gets away with half of what he does amazes me. And yes Blakely did more than his 6 touches suggests but we were smashed in the clearances and yes hes a big body but slow.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
He did way more than 6 touches. Block, shepherds, tap ons...none are stats but all are products of his strength. The greater issue is a lack of game continuity has an exponential inverse. If you are always taken off the field whenever you get into the game, you will always lose momentum. His first game back was excellent and, strangely, it is directly proportional to the greater amount of time he had on the field. It is reasonable to expect he has as much game time as someone like Crowden.
ScottyJ
Roar Rookie
60% game time for 6 touches in the middle is not good enough. He deserved to get dropped. Also would if liked to see Valente but Acres was best in tge scratch match and is given another chance. Just be happy fellas Colyer and Matera arent back in.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I have and it still makes no sense. Brisbane have the 15th most experienced list are they receiving AFL concessions? How about the bulldogs who are the 14th? And you specifically accuse the blues of tanking "when you deliberately tank, or deliberately play an inexperienced squad (both of which Carlton has done extensively over the past 5-years) - the facts simply don't support this allegation.
Macca
Roar Rookie
:laughing: Not playing this game because it exposes your argument to be a fallacy. Fact is the blues wouldn’t have been any more competitive that they have since 2015 no matter what they did, at least this way they have a bright future. As for the “concessions”, draft picks aren’t concessions. If we e look at the Collingwood side that beat the blues on the weekend they had Moore, Daicos, and the 2 Brown’s all picked up as father sons plus Quaynor picked as an academy player. Roughly a quarter of the side acquired on the cheap. Those are concessions. Geelong building a premiership dynasty off father sons like Scarlett, Clarke, 2 Abletts & Blake are concessions. Bottom teams getting high draft picks based on ladder positions is simply the system trying to work. N.B This is the blues 5th year since the rebuild began, not 6th, so again your reality isn’t actually real.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
You need to read what I said again, Macca.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Ahh yes, a bit difficult to refute the facts so lets just play the man. Just answer the questions, what assistance did the blues get from the aFL that was so egregious and what trades were bad for the blues?
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
I'm not playing this game, Macca. The reality is: in Carlton's 6th year after receiving concession after concession after concession, the Blues are not going to make the 8. I have no interest in discussing what Carlton could or couldn't have done better. In fact, I'm glad Carlton are inept at running a football club. It's good for my club, which answers the second part of your riddle. Thankfully, I've given the Blues a glowing endorsement of their new coach. I'm always right, just like I was about Bolton who you so staunchly defended as a great beacon of hope.