The US Open is historically the toughest scoring major and Winged Foot will be no different. Here is a comprehensive look at who has a chance over the four days.
I’m putting it out there that only a maximum of six players can win this week.
It will be one of the quality experienced names, not some journeyman roughie – the course is just too tough.
Think Harding Park six weeks ago but HARDER.
The rough will be even thicker and harder to predict and add much more undulation, both raised greens and the greens themselves.
Its classic vintage Tillinghast so think Oakmont and Baltusrol and more like that brute of a course Bethpage Black.
US PGA CEO Mike Davis called Winged Foot “the quintessential US Open golf course” and as Jack Niklaus said “you can’t make a mistake and get away with it here” and he once called it “the most difficult set of greens I’ve ever seen.”
It’s even money the winner will be under par.
When last held here in 2006 our own smooth swinging Geoff Ogilvy did a Steven Bradbury to claim the trophy.
He was sitting in the clubhouse at +5 before Phil Mickelson, Colin Montgomerie and Jim Furyk all bogied and double bogied their way out of contention.
Unlike 2006, there won’t be any spectators or marquees to save errant tee shots. There are no lakes or water hazards just a couple of creeks and it’s not overly tree lined.
Just 18 tough holes, three of which are par 3s over 200 yards. There are only two par 5s and only two of the par 4s are under 400 yards (6th and 11th).
The fairways will narrow down close to 20 yards on the short par 4s, dog legs that require placement off the tee, but really it’s the approach to the green that is key.
When I played it (yes I took one for the team) it was nothing like as crazy hard as this but I do remember the steep raised greens tough targets to hit and all of the last three holes 16th, 17th and 18th are all brutal par 4s.
This thing will be lost with bogies rather than won with birdies coming in on those three holes.
The weather hasn’t helped either – heavy rain the past fortnight mean the rough has thrived and is now just awful.
Gary Woodland had his caddie toss a few balls in it Tuesday so he could practice his chipping and they couldn’t find one of them!
Gary Woodland during the final round of the U.S. Open (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
This tournament was supposed to be played in June before the Covid postponement and the course has grown legs in three months with possibly the thickest rough ever.
There’s not one, not two, but THREE stages of it!
The weather moving forward looks fine, less than 20 per cent chance of rain and winds of 10 to 15 kph so enough to make the golfers think but not enough to drastically change things.
It will, however get chilly.
After a lovely Thursday high in the 20s it’ll drop into the teens so don’t be surprised with the odd beanie here and there and rain pants for warmth. It will add an extra layer of difficulty for those already out of contention.
The greens will get harder too – no more rain forecast to soften them up – and they have the sub air they can use anyway.
They are a poa annua (80 per cent) / bent grass (20 per cent) mix and as they quicken up over the weekend that poa will see some odd lines later in the afternoon. You’ll need conviction on them which ain’t easy as they’ll be stimping like 15 (on the stimp meter) downhill. Watch for the lead to keep changing as each time someone gets in the lead they’ll do that choke thing with the cautious putt that falls away as it gets to the hole. It’s just going to be a battle of survival come Sunday. Who would you put your money on for that?
THE WINNING FACTORS
The number 1 weighting this week is mental toughness. You know, the “Street Fighters” – never give up – can handle adversity and move on. Look at “Bounce back’ stats (bounce back birdie after a bogie or worse) … think Brooks Koepka (if he was playing he would be standout in this category), JT (Justin Thomas), Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau and the players who annoyingly (when you’re not on them ) just won’t go away like Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger.
Fatigue will be a huge factor. These boys have played their most hectic schedule ever squeezing six months into the last three, and then this brutal test? If they’re not on the pace come Friday afternoon on the cut line it’ll be very easy just to fall away.
In the Sunday Pairings lay all those “giver upperers” like Bubba Watson (Lay him and or bet against him in all Head to Heads you can find).
ACCURACY OFF THE TEE and APPROACH SHOTS stats not just GIR (Greens in Regulation) will as always be important. It’s that gnarly twisted wiry bluegrass/ryegrass stuff, you know the one when you think for once you’ve flushed your 5 iron onto the green (admittedly they’d be hitting 9 irons) but when you get up there it landed on the hard and fast green ran through and popped merely two feet into that horrible thick stuff bordering the fringe and you’re having to hack a full 56 degree back at it taking your chances how it comes out. This can be lottery like even for the Pros sometimes. Those irons to the green are key and hence playing off the fairway is key.
The “smash it hard as you can go find it and hit a wedge or short iron to the green” strategy doesn’t work at Winged Foot. The ball can come out dead left or barely 10 feet … sorry Bryson (DeChambeau).
If there was ever a tournament long hitters have no advantage it’s this one and as mentioned there are no crowds to be stomping down that thick rough. So think Ryder Cup Paris two years ago where they deliberately put the ropes way back to get the same effect. It killed the inaccurate American long hitters who couldn’t handle it.
UP and DOWN – STROKES GAINED AROUND THE GREEN. Winged Foot was also the Number 1 toughest scrambling stat on Tour in 2006.
LAG PUTTING – the greens are fast and undulating … not quite Augusta National but not far off. The lag component will be the key. Adam Scott would be close to leading this stat yet he’s towards the bottom of overall putting stats as he can be so unreliable from even six feet in. The point is making two putts could be enough to win. It’s not a birdie fest. Caddies will be extra important. I’ll be liking those who have a close relationship and use them for the lines on the greens – as well as course management
Justin Thomas (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
MY TOP 3 PICKS
Justin Thomas $15
He’s Number 1 or Top 3 in most ball striking stats – particularly his approach shots. He’s probably the best iron player in the world right now and has added his up and down out of the thick stuff game this year been working on that deliberately. It’ll come down to his putting. He can be hot but also can be sketchy as evidenced by recent results patchy with “only” 37th then 49th then 25th after his WIN at the WGC Fedex St Jude, but building nicely to his second place two weeks ago.
He did miss cut last year and 25th and 9th prior but he’ll feel he deserves to be there. He came early had his practice round last Thursday (which he wasn’t able to do for Harding Park), he’s got his buddy Jimmy back on the bag. He’s experienced winning a Major and frankly is due. He’s comfortable in the space. If he’s page 1 Sunday he’s my pick to handle it
Xander Schauffele $16
As well as being up there with JT in general ball striking stats – irons to the green are his forte – he’s got all the momentum. I think he’s less mentally cooked as the other top 10 as he hasn’t had the pressure of being at the top. He’s been building nicely up to his second place two weeks ago (which he “won” actually as in had the lowest 4 round score without the handicap start thing) – with a couple of 25s and previous top 10s this could be his chance to focus.
People have missed that his last three outings at US Opens (yes not quite as relevant as other weeks as not the same track but similar testing conditions) are 3rd, 6th and 5th. You don’t reckon he’s been looking forward to this one? One downside is hasn’t won a Major yet and might choke Sunday so will need to lay some off if he’s in contention.
Webb Simpson $27
I know I know I hate watching him too – when he does that annoying back off (again) thing when you think he’s about to putt. It fools even the TV Producer sometimes but he just won’t go away. Boring off the tee – tick – boring to the greens – tick. Only one of his last 20 rounds have been over par, then when he gets the putter going on that 10-20 foot range look out.
He also won’t choke – as seen at Olympic where he prevailed (annoyingly at the time for me I recall ) – recent US Opens 16th, 10th, 35th and has form coming in with 12th, 6th, 3rd, 37th and 12th. He’s the best value at $27 – can lay some Sunday in single digits if in contention.
A NOTE ON THE FAVOURITES AND WHY I’M PASSING ON THEM (INITIALLY)
Dustin Johnson $10
I’m worried about his inaccuracy off the tee. Remember he only hit two fairways Day 3 at East Lake?
It’s a miracle he won really. He won’t get away with that this week but of course he should be $10 favourite given recent form.
If he’s disciplined and hits those stinger 3 irons off the tee and stays patient he can be in the mix like he was at Bethpage Black in the US PGA last year, second only to Koepka.
But will he be patient enough? That implies smart golf. I think there’s a bad day in there like his pair of 80s only eight weeks ago which he followed with a 79 and WD.
It’s amazing how often he has a bad start but somehow sneaks back on the front page come Sunday. If he starts well and runs away with it as he did at East Lake then I’m in trouble and have to rely on the cash cow Head to Heads.
Jon Rahm $11
“Hothead” Jon Rahm – he’s just not proven to me yet under the pressure of a Major to be remotely close to bringing it home. When he does I’ll respect him but until then I’ll never back him in a big four event. In addition even if he starts well he’s proven he doesn’t handle leads.
He’s better coming from behind – not a good record in thick rough. Before last year’s third he missed the cut the previous two years. His recent form is undeniable hence the price – but I think if it remotely starts going wrong he’ll start doing that Blubber Watson impersonation turn his head away viciously when misses a putt – like he was robbed – like it’s clearly not his fault. That’s when you lay him (hmm I might have to eat these words one day – hopefully not this weekend)
Rory McIlroy $20
What does one do with Rory? Can’t back him, can’t sell him. His patchy year suddenly made sense when he announced an impending child only two weeks out! Right now nothing else in the world matters – golf is a distant second. He’ll be tired, but energised. Has he been practising hard? I doubt it. He’s dangerous because if he plays with abandon / nothing to lose he could go low, but I’m wagering even then if he’s in contention he’ll choke. It’s been too long and that’s when the putter starts letting him down.
People forget before last year’s ninth he missed the cut at the previous three US Opens. They don’t suit him really. If he’s not in contention he might really fall away Sunday just want to get home but your guess is as good as mine where his head is at.
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Colin Morikawa $18
They all want him don’t they. Yep, great ball striking but his putting is still un proven to me. It’s too inconsistent and he doesn’t have enough experience in these conditions. His scrambling stats are also poor. He he had a dream 9 holes with no pressure at Harding Park that’ll do him for this year. Don’t get me wrong his skill set and stats have my attention for next year but just not this week – certainly not at $18.
THE VALUE TOP 3
Daniel Berger $40
Talk about under the radar at this price … he’s a bit same same Schauffele / Simpson combo frankly but twice the price twice the value. He’s also possibly the least exciting player to watch … notice the TV producers never seem to show him unless he’s leading. That’s perfect for me – nothing too fancy – just has that all round game no frills but no weaknesses. This is the one you hedge tiering a top 5, top 10 and top 20 – he’s the most likely to be consistent and just might get that “Ogilvy style” collapse around him and fall into the win. Last US Open outings 49th and 6th. Recent form 15th, 25th, 3rd, 13th and 2nd (like I say, beautifully boring).
Tony Finau $40
“Tony, Tony” (say it like an old time New York Gangster) – the consummate street fighter – he’s so hot and cold you don’t know what you’re going to get result wise. He isn’t the one you hedge the place. His recent form is 17th, 5th, MC, 4th, 65th, 3rd, 8th – And recent US Opens MC, 5th, MC.
The inconsistency is mostly down to his putting. Some days he can’t miss and other days he misses six footers, but one thing you know is he will fight til the end. He’s been close at Augusta and he’ll handle these greens.
He can be boring straight if he dials back the driver and he’s done it before. I feel like it’s a toss of a coin that he’ll be in contention so well worth it at $40. Would give you something to play with come the weekend.
Tiger Woods $60
I know I know I’m a Tiger tragic. It’s a throwaway but I’ve made so much money off him in the past – admittedly given a piece of it back looking for him – although Augusta last year helped! Indeed he is entirely focussed on The Masters in November. Even this US Open is just preparation for that really, and worse, in 2006 he shot 76, 76 and missed the cut so not exactly happy memories (but it was just weeks after his Dad Earl passed).
Imagine if he clicked this week.
He’s been working on the power fade driver off the tee. It was so reliable earlier this year than ever in his life. However, recent form has been a mixed bag. His irons to green are top 5 but it’s his putting that’s let hi down, particularly lag putting but that was on the slower greens.
He is the best putter who ever lived so I’m backing (hoping) just a little something in case that clicks with the faster greens better suited to him. He’s paired with his new best mate JT which will be good for both of them actually. He’s the king when it comes to course management and that’s exactly what you need at Winged Foot.
Tiger Woods. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
TOP AUSSIE
I don’t like this betting market for this US Open.
Normally I like it as a hedge but a) it feels like a lottery with the tough course and no Aussie with enough consistency lately to justify my cash and b) while Scott is the obvious thought for ball striking and lag putting prowess, both he and Jason Day are just too tightly priced both around $2.60 for best Aussie. That puts the value down the order if you like Cam Smith (he’s been a bit better lately 24th, 20th and 18th) or Leishman – each are around $7.
The one I DON’T like is Day. He might blow up and might even miss the cut – not exactly the one you think of when you’re valuing “mental toughness.” Hope he doesn’t feel a bit faint again. Remember that one at Chambers Bay when things started going awry – or gets a head ache, or back ache? The last two outings 64th and MC although was proper before that 4th, 6th, 4th, and 7th (two of them at his home course though Muirfield Village).
CONCLUSION
This course is one of life’s gems and it will be an awesome four rounds. The lead will change many times – many will have the chance and fall away. Someone will hang in there. It is a seasoned name who will prevail.
I welcome your comments below – whether agreeing or disagreeing and I’m happy to answer any of your questions or thoughts on other players.
Oakesy is a new writer on The Roar who has been trading in sport for more than 20 years. He believes research is the key to betting. “If you’re going to have a bet don’t ‘gamble.’ Gambling is just a game of chance like the toss of a coin. If you can’t back your bet with good reasoning or research then it’s just gambling so don’t do it.”
oakesy
Roar Guru
DAY 4 CLOSING UPDATE WOW ... a truly significant moment in golf ... they'll all have to rethink this now ... rewrite the record books ... and rethink golf course choices for Majors ... or go back to the boring old equipment debate or like change the Tournament ball to something like 80% distance (can you imagine Jack going off watching the tele today) ... the rough concept don't work no more they need more trees or lakes and running creeks ... not one of the so called "experts" I read around the world picked the slowcoach Bryson ... or had him even on their radar ... the course wasn't supposed to suit him ... the lowest number of fairways hit (23) over 4 days by the Winner in the history of the US Open ... and he did it at what we thought was one of the HARDEST of US Open venues ... they'll have to start growing the rough NOW at Torrey Pines for next year! and what is extra amazing is he was the lowest round of the day ... and by a FULL 3 SHOTS! rarely is one of the last Pairing the low round of the day late afternoon with crusty greens ... he was the only player under par today -3 as well as in the tournament -6 which he won clean by 6 shots. he beat all the so called "chasers" in the final 3 groups by 5 shots today but here's the thing ... really it was his putting and short game ... he gained 3 strokes to the field putting today (only Lucas Glover was better) ... and 5.4 "Around the Green" over the 4 days .. leading that stat with Xander ... he had every facet of his game this week .. the only surprise against his recent form was the chipping round the green ... seems he fixed that this week... will it work at the tighter lies at The Masters ? so do Augusta National have time to "Bryson proof" the course by November like they did after 1997 for Tiger?? he's into $12 already ... from $20 last week ... and you could have got $60 a few months ago ... I've been getting on him (and Tiger and Brooks) for months as my regular followers know but its shrapnel really So hopefully you fared well in the Tournament Head to Heads and Daily Pairings? ouch got Matsuyama wrong last night his turning point was on the 1st hole ! we didn't even get to see the chip that came back to his feet thanks to Foxtel's genius willy-nilly timing of getting their add break in (whilst the coverage continues in the States .. can someone please ask them why t f we cant just watch the NBC coverage and their insights and Feherty and player interviews instead of keep chopping around to the B team) .... Hideki then bogie'd the next 3 holes thankfully Blubber Watson did his job shooting a 79 finishing bogie bogie ... thanks mate such a reliable bet that one on the last day you're a Champion now then for the Tournament Head to Heads were you with the TAB ? ... well learn this lesson ... whilst 2 came home (Berger vs Cantlay and Fitzpatrick vs Rose) and sadly Simpson got smashed rather by the slow coach carthorse .. can you believe i actually called it Thursday that if JT and Rory shoot the same score over the 4 days (both ended up + 6) with the TAB you LOSE the bet ... whereas at Sportsbet (and most bookies around the world) you get your stake back .. so over there 1 out of the 3 came home and 2 were a half (Scott and Day both +14 would you believe it) ... so in the black at least even if you multi'ed them up Top Aussie was a lottery as predicted ... did anyone call Lucas Herbert to be the lowest at +12 ?? deary me but the one I'm really not happy about is the Winning Score bet -2 or better ... everyone did the right thing crashed and burned ... except Bryson ... -6 ... there was no need to win by 6 mate ... pity just no pressure on him on the last few holes ... amazing .... oh and a special mention to my great mate Harro ... he's the only person in the world I know who picked it ... his man Bryson ... which cost me a lunch vs JT .. ouch 6 weeks of mediocrity till we get to Augusta for more opportunities afforded us by the added betting options and extra liquidity of the Majors ... A$23 million traded on the Winners market on Betfair this week .. that's way up this year thanks to some of our US friends joining the fray now allowed to bet ... it will only go up and up ... couple of interesting tournaments in the middle worth trading now they've moved the CJ Cup from Korea to Shadow Creek ... great course in Vegas .. followed by the Zozo Champs moved from Tokyo to Shadow Creek ... Tiger will be defending there so we'll get a look at him ahead of the Masters he's been preparing for all year (the safe power cut drive, draw 3 wood for the 13th, his practice greens at home already stimping 15 like he did last year...) happy trading ... and remember .. only have a bet if you think you have good reasoning and research ... otherwise its just gambling ... so don't do it
Long_Grass
Roar Rookie
4am alarm...nope. But definitely 6am. And yes, oh for a play off! (My bet would then be on DeChambeau presiding over another Wolff choke. Again)
oakesy
Roar Guru
DAY 3 UPDATE and only 5 questions remain ... 1) will the "Smash & Grab" strategy continue to work for one more day for Wolff and / or DeChambeau ... 2 of the longest hitters on Tour ... or will they get found out like Reed today ? ... poor Reedy ... bye bye Reedy ... 2) will the USGA tighten up the course a bit tomorrow? I think so .. they liked the story of the over par winning score 2006 ... and did you notice how the wind died a little at the close combined with the Northerly meaning the normally brutal 16th 17th and 18th were gettable ... tomorrow expect pins to be tucked and greens to be dried out with the sub air system ... and scores to be higher ... which gives the chasers more of a chance 3) will they bring in fake crowd noise like in the footy? picture big speakers all around the course how good would that be ? otherwise if Wolff becomes the youngest player to win a Major since Tiger 1997, and the youngest to win The US Open since Bobby Jones 1923 which combined with (where is he now?) Morikawa's win in also only his 2nd Major a month ago, people are going to question their validity and how much easier it was without the pressure of the crowds ... the serious question being .. is there less pressure tomorrow than normal ? 4) when the f will the USGA grow a pair and penalise that carthorse Bryson for ludicrous slow play ... "they've been threatened to be put on the clock" they said ... 3 times ... he took 2 mins 30 for that putt on 17 ... then over 3 mins over the approach shot to 18 ... tragically missing that 5 footer for par cos he rushed it (only 1 minute 30) ... European Tour guidelines are 45 seconds from when your opponent strikes his shot or putt ... it might just do Wolff's head in tomorrow 5) beware fatigue today ... some of those top players who have been right in the mix lately banking millions like DJ, Rahm, JT, might just get tired today given they cant win they just want to get out of there .. its been a long 6 months squeezed into 3 playing more tournaments in a row than ever before and in partic the mental exhaustion of being in contention so many times .. they have a month off before readying for Augusta in 7 weeks time ... avoid the top players in Head to Heads they are unreliable today THE WINNERS MARKET there are only 7 players can win it now .. no-one below Rory on +1 can win ... so lets assess each one -5 $2.80 Wolff ... inconsistent over the 3 days is why we missed him ... 66-74-65 and tomorrow I'm calling more like 74 ... minimum ... maybe worse .. its well published he hit only 2 fairways today but still made 13 greens in reg ... wow .. he is 12 fairways total for 3 days which is 58th in the field .. wow .. 2 things have saved him a) as the commentators rightly pointed out he has a steeper descent into the ball which assists out of this rough b) his putting has been awesome ... 26 putts today .. on those crusty things ! only Schauffele and Oosty have better "strokes gained to the field" putting stats .. but can he keep hitting those unbelievable irons from the rough onto the greens? will the lies continue to be so kind? and if he gets edgy will the putting stats continue or fold like Reedy today? his first 5 holes are critical .. over the 3 days he went -1, +4, -2 ... if he starts understandably nervous and starts like DAY 2 the lead could be gone by the 6th and question is whether ha can recover ... then this thing is wide open -3 $3.50 DeChambeau ... did you know he was 3 back of the leader at The Rocket Mortgage just over 2 months ago and overhauled the leader to win by 3? know who the overnight leader was who choked ... you wouldn't believe it ... Matt Wolff .. I cant believe the press isn't all over that ... Bryson's stats though a different story to the leader ... yes same same smash and grab tactic and he also only hit 3 fairways today but whilst irons to the green saved Wolff (so far) its the chipping around the greens saved Bryson .. wow he's been so weak in this area this year ... you saw all the up and downs today .. I feel like its a toss of a coin he gets away with it one more day or goes to water like Reed.... but why is it you just don't feel like putting your money on him ? if he hits 9 fairways tomorrow he wins .. if he goes edgy he shoots 72 or worse easy -1 $13 Oosty ... sorry but its not him ... I want to be on him as he's the only previous Major winner in the last 3 pairings ... but does that count so much without the crowds anyway? more importantly its only his putting got him there ... 5.4 strokes gained on the field ! 2.6 just today ... thick rough not his strength he cant go forward from here I'll pass E $16 Matsuyama ... yep def main contender to hold in there if the top 2 falter .. he's the best ball striker so far this week (with Rory) 24 Fairways .. but his putting is the worst by far of the top 10 GIVING UP -0.8 shots to the field ... he's the new Simpson ... he'll likely just hang around , half a chance to get under par and possibility he gets the putter going ... but then should he hit the lead he wobbles too ... his best hope is doing an Ogilvy E $12 Schauffele ... worried about him ... its a miracle he's here really given his ball striking .. its the putting has kept him in it .. testament to the grinder that he is and why we were on him from Thursday ... haven't given up on him of course but he'll need to strike the ball a lot better tomorrow if he's to get under par hopefully he found something on the range in the dark ... most of his wins have been coming from behind so this is how he likes it E $27 English ... hmmm under the radar ... he's been consistent all year its not surprising he's here really with strong all round stats .. he came 2nd a few weeks ago Northern Trust so he has form not denying that .. but that's the point he came SECOND .. he's the perennial make a string of cuts and the occasional top 5 bank the cheque guy .. he hasn't won since the OHL Makayoba who cares in 2016 ... he'll just miss +1 $17 Rory ... blo*dy hell here we are again what do we do with Rory ?? .. if there's one guy can go play laisser-faire its him .. and he has the ball striking stats too 24 fairways and 36 greens better than anyone above him ... he was just unlucky day 2 with approach shots ... but i worry about his frame of mind .. in particular if he gets in the lead its been a long time since he tasted it and all year that's when the putter lets him down ... as per my Betting Preview on Thursday ill just have to leave him alone cant back him cant sell him STRATEGY sadly experience tells me both players wont falter, one usually hangs in there ... I just don't know which one they both look unreliable to me ... but my head says don't sell them ... if Bryson does the job I'm already exposed but I can afford it from the head to heads cash but i wont add any risk ... and if they both falter I'm happy with my 2 horses in play Schauffele from Thursday and Matsuyama added yesterday as per the DAY 2 update if you have no exposure pick one you like whether Matsuyama or Schauffele or Rory for a bit of fun at good prices ... which you could possibly lay some in running if the lead closes DAY 4 PAIRING BETS 2 main ones and 2 little ones for fun today 1) $1.85 Matsuyama vs Oosty ... Hideki ball striking more reliable as above and i love the little bonus thing that he's a shot behind its uncanny how often they end up being square meaning we win the bet as shoots 1 less on the day 2) $2.00 Todd on Watson ... partly because Todd is the most boring player in the world .. which is a good thing here has hit 30 fairways in 3 days ! .. meanwhile Blubber Watson will get bored at some point and just want to get home to see if there's anything of his property left thanks to Hurricane Sally 3) $3.50 Bezuidenhaut vs Rahm ... just a little one for fun really ... its not like me to be backing a $3.50 outsider ... but just in case the spoilt Spanish schoolboy has one of his hissy fits its so much fun to make money watching him do it .. 4 $2.60 Pieters on Reed ... same same as above just a little one at good odds in case Reed blows up Sunday once out of contensh as he often does ... NOTE TAB have the pairing wrong you'd have to back Noren if you're operating in cash well that's it girls ... should be a cracking finish tomorrow morning ... leaders tee off a little earlier 3.30 am Aussie East Coast time to allow time for a play off ... ooh wouldnt that be fun ... my heart says back it ... don't count it out just yet (oh and back the winning score to be -2 or worse at around even money) enjoy
Philip McCarroll
Guest
Very insightful Oaksey and a astute philosophy on betting. Like the way you approach it!!
oakesy
Roar Guru
DAY 2 UPDATE now and again the Punting Gods give you a "free" bet ... imagine this ... you can LAY Reed and / or Bryson and they'll pay you money to take on JT or anyone else you fancy down the page ... and just because they have a 1 and 2 shot lead ... but a) there are still 2 full days to go and b) the course is going to get tougher ... and tougher ... no rain ... the fairways will run out further so wayward cut shots will run through fairways into the rough ... and greens will firm up ... and get crustier in the afternoon ... light headed nervous nellies beware ... those tentative putts will all be missing at the hole ... WINNERS MARKET LAY Reed (-4) at $5.80 ... he cant possibly keep these scrambling stats up for another 2 days .. maybe 1 but not 2 .. he might even do his back in with that helicopter twirl seems to be getting more and more exaggerated LAY Bryson (-3) at $5.90 ... his strategy wont work at the weekend as the course gets tougher .. his short game is the weakest of the the top players ... save your bullets on him for Augusta where its wide open BACK JT (-2) at $6.60 ... my views on JT were enunciated in Thursdays preview .. he wont give up ... BACK one other .. take your pick ... or sprinkle some around on 2 or 3 of these puppies .... Xander (E) is at $10 only couple shots back (although he did miss plenty fairways today need to keep an eye on that tomorrow ) ... I've added Matsuyama's (E) at $22 as his ball striking stats were the best up top today and he seems to be getting comfortable with these greens ... not sure he can win under pressure Sunday but if he's in the mix we can lay some back in single digits from this $22 price ... and I haven't given up on Simpson (+2) although he needs everyone to fall away around him as he just stays there like a cockroach ... or he gets on one of those tears of 10-15 foot putts like 2 months ago when he won ... I've added some at $50 ... DAY 3 PAIRING BETS Top 3 only half stakes today girls ... we had a great day today 2 out of the 3 came home averaging almost 2 to 1 so bank some of that ... the pairings just didnt fall well for tonight .. players i don't like paired together ... or favourites i do like playing absolute jubs so very short priced under $1.50 yet as my regular followers know i don't like DAY 3 bets really as strange things can happen they're just not as reliable as DAY 2 when people might have to make putts to make the cut or DAY 4 when everything is on the line ... but for a bit of fun take: 1) Matsuyama vs Blubber Watson 2) Simpson vs Hovland 3) Berger vs Westwood TOURNAMNET HEAD TO HEADS UPDATE ... so far so good ... Fitzpatrick BANKED vs Rose who choked the last few holes to +10 .. noice ... JT on Rory looking good ... not counting chickens there yet though ... and Berger and Simpson on Cantlay got few shots in the tin ... only bummer is Simpson on Bryson but certainly haven't given up on that one just yet ! set the alarm for 4am ... enjoy !
oakesy
Roar Guru
DAY 1 UPDATE well that was the easy day ... was always forecast to be the best day for weather ... tomorrow gets chilly ... and greens start to firm up .... scores will deteriorate tomorrow .. and i'm worried the afternoon field today might have got the right side of the draw as the wind died completely ... might not be same for tomorrows afternoon field .. and did you notice how the greens slowed a little as the poa grew in got a little bumpy here and there .. you know that thing when the whingers do the "tap the spike mark down it was clearly that and not my fault" when they miss a 5 footer ? WINNERS MARKET LAID 33% of JT position at $5.10 ... (he got down to $4.80 in running) ... scores will be tougher in the afternoon not confident he'll be still leading by days end ... he tees off the 10th so gets the tough stretch of the last 3 holes out of the way early so GET BACK ON HIM in running whatever the price before he tees off the easy par 4th 6 (should be about 6am our time) for an easy run his last few holes BACKED Dustin at $46 ... do it at least for "a saver" (enough to cover all your bets in the winners market should he win) .. he was actually unlucky today with his putting he gave up 0.77 strokes to the field .. he's rarely in the negative on that stat ... did you see how many middle distance maybe makeable ones rolled by the hole? his fairways hit (6) and GIR (12) not that bad ... he plays in the morning and could be a different man LAID Reed $13 ... cant possibly win ... hitting it everywhere (only 5 fairways) just got lucky this morning with recovery shots .. will be found out possibly even tomorrow hes too inconsistent lately DAY 2 PAIRING BETS - TOP 3 1) BACK MATSUYAMA around $2.50 vs Reed and Spieth ... he should close the gap to faltering Reed and hopefully Spieth behaves and keeps missing his drives 2) BACK DJ around $2.60 ($2.63 Sportsbet) vs DeChambeau and Finau ... hopefully he closes the gap to them after todays round hence shooting the better round of the day which is all we need 3) BACK SCOTT around $3.25 vs Rory and Rose ... bit dangerous this one so tier them and leave this last if youre multying up .... i think he'll close the gap to Rory but Rose might do also enjoy
oakesy
Roar Guru
thanks ozinsa ... not counting 1 chicken yet though ... tables might reverse a bit and ive just sold some of him out as youll see in my DAY 1 UPDATE post shortly ...
William O'Keeffe
Roar Rookie
Great article Oakesy, nice one! Thanks for the h2h tips, will throw some down and see what comes out the other side.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
A long way to go but great call on Justin Thomas
Blueboy
Guest
Boom for the open - was there the last time with the moderate rough up to ankles and this will be harder - look for a conservative hitter that just grinds away - stupid I know but I like Scotty at this to turn back the clock to 2013 one last time. Thanks for sharing the insights
oakesy
Roar Guru
one thing about DJ most have missed ... and which he alluded to in his presser .. is he doesn't like to hit draws odd the tee ... so the course layout doesn't suit him really ... so he'll have to dial back on some of the tees and only saw a few holes he would hit driver as he would run out of fairway on those dogleg lefts ... i cant decide if thats a bad thing for him as hes not used to hitting more than 9 irons into par 4s (!) ... or could be a good thing as he wont be visiting the rough as often ... we will see he certainly has all the tools if he and his equally smart brother caddy can work it out ! we'll know in a few hours now ...
oakesy
Roar Guru
that will be some feat if Morikawa pulls it off .. back to back Majors .. youd have to respect that ... looking forward to seeing how he handles the test frankly as i like him long term .. enjoy !
VISCOUNT
Roar Rookie
Great work Lord Oakes , my $$$ are on Morikawa in terms of mental toughness but you are right look out for Tiger , he is not done with yet.
Gary
Guest
Thanks Oakesy. Agree with you on Schauffele...he is so consistent. He's the new breed and it's their time to break through. However you can't dismiss DJ ...too much form at the moment. That power fade gets him on the fairway.
Long_Grass
Roar Rookie
Thank you Will have to get my skates on before the odds change PS The TAB counts a tie as an outcome? Thats...outrageous.
hammertime
Roar Rookie
I thought I recognised you! Greens will be very quick for us as well on Saturday. What time are you off?
oakesy
Roar Guru
hi Long_Grass ... my top 3 Tournament Head to Heads this week are : with Sportsbet : 1) Scott $1.94 vs Day 2) Simpson $1.70 vs Cantlay 3) JT $1.81 vs Rory with Ladbrokes / Neds: 1) Berger $1.91 vs Cantlay 2) JT $1.91 vs Rory 3) Simpson $1.91 vs DeChambeau with TAB: 1) Simpson $1.80 vs DeChambeau 2) Berger $1.93 vs Cantlay 3) Fitzpatrick #1.80 vs Rose 4) JT $1.75 vs Rory (but remember TAB count the "Tie" as an outcome even for the 4 day Tournament Head to Head so if they happen to shoot the same score and believe me it happens then you LOSE whereas with most bookies like Sportsbet you get your stake or half the potential payout back ... Ladbrokes same as TAB but at least they compensate it with better price) for the thrill seekers multi up 2 or 3 of them you like but do please keep the larger stakes on the individual Head to Heads ... the reason we like Top 3 is if 2 come home you're AHEAD of the game, if only 1 comes home you're still IN the game ... occasionally you win all 3 but you rarely lose all 3 .... you only need to win over half your bets averaging even money to be a consistent winner ... good luck !
Long_Grass
Guest
Fantastic analysis, Oaksy (from a fellow Tiger fan boi) What about the tournament head to heads though? I play these rather than focus on just the winner markets.
oakesy
Roar Guru
hi there hammertime .. i know what you mean "he owes you" but i'm not sure Day will repay this week .. but who knows which "Day" will turn up ?? ... wouldn't talk you out of Matsuyama though .. hes been showing the signs last few weeks he was under the radar nicely then found his putter at BMW finished 3rd then 15th Tour Champs .. been consistent at US Open layouts last year 21st and 16th prior and 2nd at Erin Hills 2017 ... consistent but as you say his putting is the problem esp on these greens .... so i cant see him winning but might be worth a hedge top 10 or top 20 or if you use Betfair back him at $40 and lay some off if hes in contensh Sunday ... (oh and ill see you at the RSGC CUp Saturday morning then!)
oakesy
Roar Guru
hi Paul ... and thanks for the compliment .. yes i like Fleetwood hes on my "looking to back" list for Head to Heads and Daily Pairings trades ... he likes the tough US Open layouts whilst only 65th last year he was 2nd and 4th prior ... consider hedge his juicy $38 WIN price with a top 10 or top 20 ... he wasnt great since Covid comeback but did strike the ball lovely last week in Portugal finished 3rd .. Hatton i find too hit and miss and can be a hothead not sure he'll handle the adversity of all the bogies ... but was 26th last year and 6th prior and recent form trending nicely 25th 16th then 7th at Tour Champs so i wouldn't talk you out of him .. but less reliable as Fleetwood for a consistent finish maybe ... good luck