Shortly after receiving your first mouth guard, an orange and an explanation as to why you need to run in the other direction in the second half, young rugby union players are schooled in the need to win the gain line as the first order of business.
It is an absolute in rugby union and cliches abound to remind us.
Why then, in the latter years of the Steve Hansen era, did this golden rule seemed to be shelved in order to pursue an ideal, which elusively remained just out of reach?
We should begin with a capability assessment first.
At set piece, certainly for the best part of a decade, every iteration of the All Blacks’ eight has been rock solid on their own ball and generally good enough to give opposition a fright or two on their put in. There are no issues with capability here.
In terms of recent forward combative evidence there is more than enough to suggest that ability, certainly in shorter periods, is not an issue.
In 2017 they demolished the much vaunted British and Irish Lions pack with simple one-out rugby first time out and in the second Test competed on an even footing with a seven-man pack as coach Hansen chose to withdraw Jerome Kaino after the Sonny Bill Williams send-off.
In 2018, from 30-13 down at Loftus, the All Blacks’ forwards finished straight over the top of the South African eight as captain Kieran Read decided the backs were to be spectators, and in the same year after being given a right fright by England, came from 15-0 in the rain at Twickenham on the back of a resurgent forward effort to win.
At the 2019 World Cup, Ireland were simply ambushed, and in the opening pool match, the to-be world champions had their loose forwards surgically dissected in the first half while the All Blacks’ forwards dominated the gain line and breakdown to such an extent that South Africa were done long before the final whistle.
(Photo by Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images)
All of these were exactly the type of performances All Blacks fans expect. It’s part of the very essence of the game, but they have become fewer and further between, and rarely has that gain-line focus been where it needs to be right from the opening whistle.
This is not a means of devaluing the efforts of those that have beaten and outplayed the All Blacks up front in recent history. Those victories have been more than acknowledged for both the coaching and on-field execution required. This is more of an attempt to understand the thought process of the coaches that got New Zealand to this place.
1. Fast is good, so faster must be better, right? Wrong.
From the Lions series onward, there has been a slant towards speed and focus on the backs at the expense of forward runners. After the 2015 World Cup final I wrote on these boards how each of the All Blacks’ loose forwards had carried for more metres than the Wallabies’ trio collectively, a decisive factor in the outcome.
These tight run metres seem to have been devalued with the emphasis on producing ruck ball as quickly as possible. The emphasis on width seemingly was the priority.
Messaging is so important in any high-performance area, be it direct or implied. There is a clear intent in the message when selecting Codie Taylor over Dane Coles, Anton Lienert-Brown over Ryan Crotty, Ardie Savea over Sam Cane and Jordie Barrett over Ben Smith, whether it is said out loud or not. The message is that we can outrun any scenario. In Test match rugby the margins between the top sides are so fine, that any variation from optimal is going to hurt and we have seen this in New Zealand’s performance in the last World Cup cycle.
(Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
And I would ask this question: has the focus really worked in improving outcomes? Demonstrably no. It appears the All Blacks’ coaching team put way too much store in a couple of 50-point wallopings of a poor Springboks side, running France to bits in the 2015 quarter-final and cutting up a Wallabies side with a horrible defensive structure. But in the tight ones, the focus on fast and faster and dual playmakers simply didn’t work consistently enough to justify the de-emphasis of forward play.
2. You can’t beat natural laws
Investors and maths geeks among us will be aware of the concept of the efficient frontier. Stick with me here for a minute, everyone else.
In short, it is about producing the optimal outcomes for any given set of inputs, such as the best return from an investment portfolio for a certain amount of risk taken.
In looking to play a faster game at the next level, New Zealand adjusted two key portfolio variables in search of higher return and the outcome collapsed, primarily manifested in the area of turnovers conceded.
And this is clear in the numbers.
In the years 2014 and 2015, New Zealand were on the wrong side of the turnover count only six times out of 21 tier-one games. Interestingly, the widest margin was four errors against Argentina.
In the two years in the run-up to the 2019 World Cup, New Zealand came out on the wrong side of the turnover count 14 times out of 21 tier-one games.
Surely all the warning lights must have been flashing back at New Zealand Rugby when the All Blacks were on the wrong side of the count for the first six games of 2018, and yet not only did they persist, they doubled down. It appears the desire to innovate was staring them in the face. That game plan mix has become horribly lopsided.
How your opposition let you play can be argued as a factor here, it should be noted New Zealand were on the wrong side of the turnover counts against Italy, Argentina, France and Australia.
The message for new coach Ian Foster is clear: get back to prioritising the gain line and breakdown in the forwards and show respect to the natural laws of our game that it deserves.
The new breakdown refereeing directives are already demonstrating how hard it is to kill the ball when sides are going backwards, so we are going to see a faster game going forward. But trying to play it without the core roles being done up front still looks like a recipe for disaster.
Josh
Roar Rookie
Great read Highlander. I think a large part of 2019 was great all blacks on the decline. Still champions but now vulnerable. Read was in my opinion no longer the stand out no 8 in world rugby. Coles and Retallick had a lot of injuries going into the world cup. No Kaino as best no 6. Past two world cups abs had world best 6, 7, 8 and Brodie as well in the second row. Last year that was definitely not the case. Take into account no carter, declining sbw, no maa nonu and they just didn't have the cattle. That said world cups are just hard to win, look at 2011, at home outplayed by France in final.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I like a lot of the work the All Black forwards have been doing in the past two tests. They've been using the maul as a attacking weapon, carrying more, and doing a better job of contesting the breakdown. A lot of the young players have slotted in well, Whitelock had his best test in ages, and Cane has been huge. They may struggle when they come up against NH packs or SH, but who knows when that will happen. They've managed to take the sting out of a Wallabies pack that played well for three halves. The only thing that's really bugging me about the All Blacks right now is their lacklustre bench performances. This has been a problem for a while and it's going to cost them in a tight test match. I can't remember the last time I had faith in the All Blacks' bench.
Lara
Guest
Cane statement at the end of the game yesterday was “ we did the basics “ , but they did it really well. Set pieces were so sound, good ball to play with, game line was a priority , take the contact, pass when the percentages work, reduce risk, let the backs loose when ready. Sounds so easy, hard to achieve.....we only do the basics, but bloody well.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
I’d have Itoje and Curry. With M. Vunipola, George and Sinckler on the bench.
So, can you name an AB forward who would make a world XV. yep.....All of them..... Whats the point as you and I would disagree on it anyway.....Is there any England forwards who would make a world 15? Not sure!!
Unders
Roar Pro
My bad I haven't phrased that well. England have outplayed the AB's for 140+ minutes in the last two games. England dominated the game at Twickers till the 65th minute- England won the collisions that day with inexperienced players. Then there's talk of Underhill's try....
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Great points. There seems to be a growing narrative that England ‘overpowered’ the AB pack. They didn’t. They were quicker and, in the front row, more skilful.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Yep, spot on.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
The AB pack are ‘unarguably the most skilled in attack.’ I’d argue with that. At the RWC the AB props contributed virtually nothing outside the scrum. I didn’t see any difference in skill level compared to 3 or 4 other nations in the other forward positions either.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
At the risk of repeating myself the 16-15 game showed all the signs for what would subsequently happen. I said so at the time and got lambasted on here by outraged Kiwis. The England pack were significantly depleted but still won the gainline for the entire 80. The ABs came through because the England lineout collapsed in the 2nd half and the 50-50 disallowed try. I went out on the Monday and put a cheeky 50 on Ireland winning the following week. Remember this was an AB pack at virtually full strength.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
But, I think the Bok forwards had the better of the game they lost against the ABs at the RWC. Saying that if the forwards you named were ‘at their best’ is a bit meaningless. For some of them that would mean turning the clock back before significant injuries or when they were younger. It’s like saying if McCaw was at his best he’d still make a world XV. Well, yes he would. But, Whitelock, Coles and Moody are clearly on the down path in their careers. S. Barrett and Taylor are nowhere near a world XV. Cane and Savea are still very good but this is an era of world class backrow forwards. So, can you name an AB forward who would make a world XV.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Yes, there’s something to that. But, we’re not talking about the odd game. There’s been a decline in AB forward play since 2017 that’s been evident even in a number of matches they’ve won. I don’t think there’s been any decline in their back play.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Really enjoyed this article. Thanks Highlander. I have noticed the same thing over the last couple of years. The All Blacks have lost the gain line and collision battle on multiple occasions. The loss to Ireland in Dublin and the semi-final loss to England have been the most noteable. Both times they got outmuscled and their attack was suffocated. That exposed a couple of veterans especially in the Ireland game. Whitelock and Franks were slow around the park and weren’t as effective in the contact zones as we expected them to be. I also think the All Blacls at times seem to have one less body at the clean out which sometimes causes the turnovers.
KiwiHaydn
Roar Rookie
An incredible team. The quarter, semi and final wins of the 2015 RWC just highlighted that ABs team at their best. Able to win the tight contests in a variety of ways, while blowing the French off the park.
KiwiHaydn
Roar Rookie
That combo would be perfect. Innovation, a hard edge and tactical nous. Those three would be an ABs coaching dream team.
KiwiHaydn
Roar Rookie
And Ben Smith. Needed some more on field leadership and experience to change it up when plan A wasn’t working.
KiwiHaydn
Roar Rookie
When fit, Retallick is the ABs best player.
timber
Guest
England lost 15-16 at home but supposedly outplayed the ABs? Back in the real world, the scoreboard trumps your bias.
Unders
Roar Pro
Bit harsh on Wilson there, he’s been brilliant ball in hand and in defence. But I do agree Samu should be there to cover, he was good in Wellington. Imo I think Wilson, Hooper and Wright/Samu should start with Hanigan and Wright/Samu covering lock-back row.
Unders
Roar Pro
I agree, the Welsh forward pack has been taking a right bullying in 2020. The Irish quarter final in my eyes was won by the AB’s blowing them out of the water with Mo’unga, Smith, Beaudy, Bridge and Reece having a field day. The AB forwards did not really have much to do that day in terms of gritty stuff. It is interesting to rank forward packs at this moment in time. We can all agree that the Boks, England and AB’s consist of the top 3. France are young but are looking on the up- Ollivon, Aldritt and Le Roux are world class players and the Stade de France, in my eyes, will be the hardest place to visit alongside Twickenham in the North. Squidge mentioned that Paul Willemse was too much of a dark art master to even represent the Boks. In regard to the Kiwis, their forward pack are unarguably the most skilled in attack. A consistent performance of carrying and getting over the gain line will prove doubters wrong. In Wellington Whitelock and PT didn’t do this effectively, however in Auckland PT was all over the ball. As in defence, the AB’s always look comfortable.