This year the Bulldogs have the right to match any bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, widely considered the best player in the draft.
A similar situation arises next year with Collingwood and Nick Daicos, which leads to speculation that the first pick is redundant and can be traded out.
It can be traded out, and it may be worth it, but the points embedded within the pick are essential in matching any bid.
Consider the situation if the Bulldogs had traded Pick 14 this year for picks next year and then required 2400 points to match a bid on Ugle-Hagan. Their other picks this year, 41 54, are worth only 632 points, so they would have taken a deficit of 1768 points into next year’s draft, negating any benefit gained.
In this case the Bulldogs had Collingwood over a barrel and received Picks 26, 33 and 42, worth 1687 points, in return for Pick 14, worth 1161 points.
Let’s consider what might happen if Collingwood managed to trade next year’s first-round pick for Pick 13 this year. Let’s assume Collingwood are able to select appropriate players with Picks 13, 14 and 16 and then need to match a bid for Reef McInnes at 19. They would require 751 points to match, minus the 129 points for Picks 65 and 70. So they would carry a deficit of 622 points into 2021.
They might then need another 2400 to match a bid for Nick Daicos, which would wipe them out of the 2021 draft and lead to a deficit carried forward into 2022.
So if Collingwood trade their 2021 first-round pick, they need to be mindful of the points and that any scenario in which they manage three first-round picks plus McInnes and Daicos will lead to a point deficit which extends into 2022.
The concessions given to Gold Coast were generous. They can pre-list players, and it seems they will require only one pick in this year’s draft. This leaves Picks 27 and 37 ripe for another club to pick. Carlton, Geelong and West Coast don’t have picks until well after this, and acquiring Picks 27 and 37 would improve their position markedly.
Essendon have two NGA recruits and, with only Pick 44 in the second and third rounds, will need to go into deficit. Picks 27 and 37 would obviate this need.
My suggestion is that Collingwood offer their 2021 first-round pick to Gold Coast for Picks 27 and 37 in this year’s draft and their second and probably third-round pick in the 2021 draft. Collingwood would avoid a points deficit this year, probably still be able to utilise Pick 37 and probably have enough points to acquire Nick Daicos in 2021.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yeah I don’t think he will improve that much he will be a third round pick if that and well after JUH, McInnes, Campbell, Gulden, and a few others which will take our picks in the 70s up to the fifties
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I wouldn't be so certain, but he's a fair chance of getting to their pick. Unless the Dockers do a deal to trade back, like 12 and 32 for Melbourne's 18 and 19. Actual picks are more like 15 and 36 for 23 and 24.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I've run the numbers and the Bombers would want to trade 44 back for St Kilda's 64, 67 and 74 if the Bombers want to get enough points to match Brand and Eyre without a deficit. Saints don't need all their late picks. I reckon they'd be happy to pick their last player in the mid-40s after stashing one or two current senior guys on their open rookie list. Then they'll go shopping at the rookie draft, as they'd done to reasonable success.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Agreed, although the Bombers would only need 305 points to match a bid at pick 36 (worth 502 points). Outside the first round it's just a straight discount of 197 points. 42 is worth 395, so they get 90 points back = pick 65. That gets combined with any other late picks that are now worth points to match again and they go into deficit slightly for 2021 (which I think would push their 3rd rounder back).
JamesH
Roar Guru
Good point, I forgot about picks disappearing as bids are matched. Should be absolutely fine then.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Don’t think it will be enough to get him into dangerous territory points-wise.
Jean Marsh
Guest
the dockers will get heath chapman at the draft
ben marsh
Guest
the dockers will get heath capman at the draft
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Let's just say both attracted bids by Carlton at 38 (which actually comes into 36 due to prior bid matching). Bombers have to find 400 points for Eyre, which they straight up match with 44 (which is 42 by then). Then they easily find another 400 points for Brand because their late picks have turned into 4th rounders. Maybe a small deficit to carry over, but not much. This is worst case scenario stuff. I've said it before, Dodoro is a genius. Flawed and more than a bit like Scott Clayton, but he has turned a cruddy hand of wantaways into a swift rebuild and I don't he's finished dealing surprises yet.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yeah I think the bombers benefit from the fact that this years draft is stacked with key position talent so unless a club is feeling particularly spiteful I don’t see how either of brand or eyre are bid on before the end of the second round
Noiret
Roar Rookie
I'm assuming that Gold Coast won't need picks 27 & 37 and will trade them out. Surely there are several clubs that would like them very much. Carlton, Geelong & West Coast only have much poorer picks, whilst Collingwood, Essendon and maybe Port could use them to point match. I'd assume they would be worth together a 2021 2nd round pick. The problem is that Gold Coast really don't need picks. Next year, they already have 2 first round picks, and can still list academy and zone selections outside the draft. So the thing that Gold Coast will want is to upgrade an extant pick. Collingwood can trade next year's 1st round pick if they get more points. I originally thought 27 & 37 & next year's 2nd would get it done, but if Gold Coast in 2021 have their own pick, their concession pick, Collingwood's 1st pick and the right to pre-list academy and zone selections, it's unlikely that they will need other picks, so even though they've traded out their 3rd round pick, they could still throw in some 4th round picks.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
2021 seems like a season where coaches who were given a free pass in 2020 due to mitigating circumstances are put on notice if they start the year with a losing record. If the Pies are bottom 6 at the bye, Buckley's papers will be stamped early. If they miss finals, he'll be moved on with a little more ceremony. Then again, he lasted through several miserable seasons with a scandal a year, so he might end up breaking Sheedy's record!
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yeah I don’t see how bucks can keep his job after this haha
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Good points, but you're overlooking the fact that draft picks are only worth the points they have at the moment of being used for a pick or a trade. To clarify, pick 77 is worth nothing until the draft goes live, then the Dogs use up 4 or 5 picks to match Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and the Swans use 3 picks to match for Brayden Campbell and Port use 4 picks to match for Lachie Jones. 77 gets bumped out one spot with each bid, but comes in 11 or 12 spots by the picks vanishing off the board. Matched bids for all the other club-tied kids could bring 77 into the early 50s. Even a bid that goes unmatched still means late picks remain static. Brand and Eyre can easily be matched by Essendon's late picks, unless they get both get bid on too early, in which case the Bombers have some exposure. Small risk for great reward because they are both 2nd-3rd round talent. One or both also remain possibilities to last until the Rookie Draft.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
While I enjoyed the Pies win over West Coast for its intensity and thrilling finish, they seem to have peaked and paid overs just to get to 6th. Their fixture next year will be Tigers twice at the G, Cats twice, Port twice, Lions twice and probably Saints twice with a toss-up of Bombers or Blues twice. They'll probably only have to go interstate 4 times and they'll have the rest in Melbourne, but it looks like they'll be sliders.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yeah but I think eyre has drastically improved his draft standing.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Nah pies will be 7-12th next year they’ve completely messed up their list management
JamesH
Roar Guru
Essendon won't be worried about going into deficit in 2021 because it will only push their third round pick back. They will just need 197 points to match any bids outside the first round for Brand and Eyre. The only real risk is that by the time a bid comes for the second of those players, the 'balance' left over from using pick 44 for matching the first bid has been pushed so far back that it isn't worth any points (pick 74+), and they can't match. But this should be something they can address on the night - all they need is one club that is willing to do a shuffle of later picks.
Boo
Guest
First round draft picks shouldn't be traded and all picks are open .A descending scale of base payment from last to first ladder positions would still give the bottom clubs an advantage .
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Great article. I just have two points to make though. The first is the suggestion made by many that the club with the number 1 pick simply won’t use it on a bid. I wasn’t convinced about this, but I’m beginning to think it’s actually a convincing argument. Last year I proposed that the Suns should trade up to get pick 3, then bid for Tom Green, which would have destroyed GWS’s draft strategy and handed all advantage to the Suns. Turned out that 5 clubs passed him over and Carlton made the bid at 10, allowing GWS to pick Lachie Ash at 4 and match the bid with a deficit. The other point is that Nick Daicos is far from the consensus number one for 2021. His name has only recently emerged as a first round prospect, which the social media echo chamber Chinese whispers has turned into pick 1. You may end up being right about it, but without much of a season this year, predicting the top picks is impossible until we see these kids in a few months. I agree that Collingwood should be sizing up the Suns picks 27 & 37, but you should understand that the Suns are gunshy on this type of trade because of past trades with West Coast and Brisbane where they traded out a lot of points for only a small jump up the ladder. In fact, Clubs could probably get those picks for a future 2nd and 3rd as the Suns want to build picks in case they have to start matching bids next year. Great to stimulate discussion!