What’s the form line for the first Test?

Two weeks ago, I was reading lots of chirpy comments from Roar pundits who were suggesting Australia would not only win the Adelaide Test comfortably, but would win the series in a canter.

I wonder if they’re still thinking the same now, given the spate of injuries that have occurred?

As with most things in 2020, cricket has been seriously affected by lockdowns, tournament postponements, etc.

In Australia, we’ve had some players start the summer playing Shield cricket, a number of others playing in the IPL and yet a few more not playing more than one game for personal reasons.

Then there’s been the added complication of both India and Australia playing white ball and red ball cricket at pretty much the same time.

This has made it hard to draw any sort of form line to decide who will win the First Test.

I’ve no idea who will play in either side in the First Test, but these are my guesses.

Australia
Marcus Harris
Marnus Labuschagne
Steve Smith
Travis Head
Matthew Wade
Cameron Green/Moises Henriques
Tim Paine
Pat Cummins
Mitchell Starc
Nathan Lyon
Josh Hazlewood

India
Mayank Agarwal
Shubman Gill
Cheteshwar Pujara
Virat Kohli
Ajinkya Rahane
Hanuma Vihari
Wriddhiman Saha
Ravichandran Ashwin
Jasprit Bumrah
Mohammed Shami
Umesh Yadav

If we start with the Indian team, Agarwal is a certainty to play, though his form from his last Test series is less than imposing (four innings in New Zealand for 102 runs at an average just over 25). He looked solid in the second innings against Australia A, but was caught out by bounce and movement in the first innings.

Shubman Gill looks every inch a player who will make a lot of runs for India for a very long time. Prithvi Shaw probably played his way out of this Test by playing too many loose shots outside off stump.

Gill looks in very good touch and will likely open for the first two Test and keep opening or drop down the order when Rohit Sharma arrives.

Cheteshwar Pujara has had two innings in the past nine months and was another player who underwhelmed in New Zealand. He looked like he picked up where he left off in the innings of 54, but with so little centre wicket batting, there has to be questions over his form.

Virat’s batting like champions do, suiting his style to conditions and formats. Even though he’s only been involved in white ball cricket for the past few months, it’s hard to imagine him not making runs in Adelaide. He’d also been super keen for his side to be one up in the series when he leaves to return home.

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Rahane made very good runs at Drummoyne and looked okay at the SCG. He was always going to play, being v.c of the team, but it’s good he’s in fair form.

Vihari might have caught the selectors eye with a very good hundred in Sydney, but more importantly he rolled the arm over and his bowling was not the worst. KL Rahul might be in contention for this spot but given he played T20’s and was just okay, I think Vihari will get the nod.

India wants a guy who who’s a terrific keeper and can make runs. They were probably hoping Saha and Rishabh Pant would solve this problem for them at the SCG, but Pant made a great hundred while Saha got a duck. He did make a good 50 at Drummoyne and is a much better gloveman, so I’m guessing he’ll get the nod.

Ashwin or Jadeja? The former bowled well last time he played at Adelaide, though his batting’s dropped off. Jadeja has made some very good runs just recently, but his bowling hasn’t been overly penetrating. Ashwin for mine because India need to take 20 wickets.

The three quicks picked themselves, though Yadav will get in because of his efforts at Drummoyne. Siraj and Saini were given plenty of opportunities, but in racing parlance, others are preferred.

The form of Shami andamp; Bumrah must be worrying. Prior to the first innings at the SCG, both looked like they hadn’t picked up a cricket ball in years with their efforts in the ODIs in particular. They certainly looked the goods at the SCG, at least when conditions suited them, but only taking a couple of wickets in the second innings with conditions in their favour, must be a concern, unless they were taking it easy and not over exerting themselves.

As for the Australian XI, on paper, there should be few worries. It’s a very settled unit who crushed Pakistan and New Zealand last summer and seemingly have plenty of inform players.

Lose Dave Warner and Will Puckovski? No problems, Marcus Harris has recently come off a record breaking stand for any wicket in Shield cricket, himself scoring a double century. Except the same guy averaged 9.66 the last time he opened the batting for Australia and has only managed a top score of 35 against India, who clearly know where to place fielders to get him out cheaply.

Labuschagne can hopefully do at number two what he’s done so well for Australia at number three. It will be critical he at least stays there, given his partners record in Tests.

Smith’s recent form is good verging on great, but not so much his Test form stretching back to last summer.

Neil Wagner worked him over with the short ball last year and there’s no doubt the Indians will be aiming to do the same. Smith managed okay, but his numbers were well down on previous series.

I doubt he’ll be too keen to face Bumrah and co under lights with a new pink ball, if Harris and Labuschagne fail to get a start.

Matty Wade has had a strange few weeks, at least on this website. He’s made runs in both red and white ball cricket this summer, but when Cameron Green did likewise, many jumped on the “dump Wade” bandwagon. Now he’s been touted as an opener in some quarters, given injuries and Joe Burns poor form!

Matthew Wade (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

I’m not sure what more Travis Head van do to stop the constant suggestions about dropping him. He’s made plenty of runs so far this summer and I thought he captained the Australian A side very well at Drummoyne. Both guys are in form and match up well against their Indian counterparts.

If you only look at Test form, the Australian bowling quartet is a distance ahead of India, especially playing at home. If more recent form from this summer is taken into account, things even up considerably.

Josh Hazlewood is probably the only one who’s had a good start to the summer, while the others efforts range from fair-to-middling (Cummins and Lyon), to pretty ugly (Mitchell Starc in white ball cricket).

I’m expecting all to lift considerably for the First Test, especially Starc. If he can get one good delivery to take a wicket early on, that could set him up for the rest of the Test summer.

A Roar contributor wrote last week that the side who did the small things right, like winning the toss, holding chances, cutting off additional runs, etc would likely take out this Test.

That rings true when form, such as it is, suggests these two teams are pretty evenly matched.