Western Bulldogs boffins spent a long time after the devastating finals exit contemplating their next roster moves to get up the ladder four seasons after winning the club’s first flag of the AFL era.
They were among the most cagey of all clubs, first announcing Tory Dickson’s retirement, then announcing delistings in increments as they searched for ways to carry out their recruitment ambitions while trying to work out how to use their draft capital without spending the points needed to match a bid on their prize next generation academy prospect.
The Bulldogs remained quiet until the second week of the trade period, although they were being mentioned all over the media on connection to the Adam Treloar saga, so it was intriguing to see them pull off their trades in quick succession.
First they got Mitch Hannan across from the Demons for a future third-round pick and then offered Lachie Young in a three-way trade that saw Brisbane get Pick 63 and North get Young and Pick 70 in exchange for the Bulldogs getting Stef Martin.
Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge (Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
So with their delistings finalised and four list spots to fill, the Bulldogs went into trade negotiations with Collingwood to extract Adam Treloar and enough draft value index points to match a potential bid at Pick 1 with their 2020 first-rounder and future picks on the table.
Having shown their hand, the Pies traded away Picks 26, 33 and 42 with their unwanted player in exchange for Pick 14 and a future second-rounder, which means that if the Dogs finish in the top four, they’ll have got Treloar for essentially nothing except his vastly reduced salary and a five-year commitment, although the Pies banking the future second represents points towards Nick Daicos.
What this trade table aggression was all in aid of was securing Jamarra Ugle-Hagan when a bid came for him, which as it eventuated came off the top, and the Doggies matched it easily, securing the consensus No. 1 and future star forward.
The leftover points from matching the bid at Pick 1 gave the Dogs Pick 66 – which came in at Pick 55 due to the 12 bids being matched, eliminating 23 picks from the board – where they picked up Dominic Bedendo from the Murray Bushrangers before passing out of the national draft.
Lachlan McNeill capped off a dream season with Woodville-West Torrens, winning the SANFL premiership and collecting the accolade of a breakthrough player on his way to being chosen at Pick 11 in the mini-draft a year after being altogether overlooked.
Hannan is a returning son of the west, having played in their VFL Premiership in 2016 and being immediately drafted by the Demons as a then 23-year-old mature ager, where he played 50 games for 55 goals and 26 goal assists. He’s a medium-tall forward who fits a list need but may end up being a depth player.
Martin is entering his twilight as a ruckman, yet it is very clear that Tim English needs to be brought along with far more support and the longer games will suit a Richmond-style dual ruck approach to give the advantage to the talent-brimming Dogs midfield.
Treloar is the accumulator that the Bulldogs have been waiting for and he’ll join a midfield that on its day is the match of any in the AFL, so it is just crazy to think what they’ll be like in a couple of years with the synergy that big games bring, but he could be like Lachie Neale at the Lions and just take them to the next level.
Ugle-Hagan is the second Oakleigh Chargers AFL draft No. 1 in a row, with 13 coming from the junior club in the past two years and ten from their grand final winning team. He’s used to being given Rolls Royce delivery into inside 50, which you’d expect with the Dogs midfielders to be able to replicate. The only question is how they fit so many key talls into the team.
Bedendo is purely a project player who had a promising bottom-age year but needs to develop into a competitive body shape in order to play at a senior level. He has the athletic potential and ability, but as with many of these Victorian 18-year-olds, there’s much to do beforehand and he’ll be better for a couple of seasons of NEVFL.
McNeill is a ready-to-go midfielder who can play inside or outside mid and has had a full season in the SANFL behind him after being passed over in his initial draft year. He will start behind a stacked group in the middle, as to be expected with one of the deepest lists in the AFL, but a debut may take some time.
The Western Bulldogs have been true to their song, coming out of the post-season snarling, but fans are more interested to see whether their bite can match their roar.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I’ve written about it elsewhere, but the intriguing battles in the ruck between the Suns and Dogs in the last 3 seasons have been telling. Close games when there is such a massive talent and experience difference, yet Witts has smashed you in the ruck and Bevo has countered with brilliant tactics like putting mids in the ruck to create a numerical advantage in the stoppages. In Ballarat in 2018, an under manned Suns team almost knocked off the Dogs when Witts and Goober Crossley, who was on debut, absolutely smashed WB in the ruck, yet somehow the Dogs won the clearances with Macrae and co getting numbers around the ball and getting the advantage against a Suns midfield that was striving all day to get up. I was the moron at the Southern end with the huge Suns flag putting the Dogs player off by madly waving as jinking about. Talk about 19th man because I made heaps of them miss! The brilliance of the game plan turned the Dogs massive weakness (I think Witts won 69 hit outs) into a strength because they created an advantage of numbers when their fake ruck was in the cliches to contest the taps. In 2020, the Suns put Swallow and Greenwood up in forward stoppages to catch the Dogs out. Davey never even got a stat, but he got us goals from it.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I’m actually a cynical bastard????, but being a Suns fan has turned me into the eternal optimist. Self sabotaging masochist, really.
Chanon
Guest
Jamarra’s coach suggested he could play in backline & then gradually if required play in forward line if needed. It will be interesting to see what Bevo has in store for this exciting prospect!
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
The Gold Coast Suns recruited a strong batch of tall forwards before their foundation year. Tom Lynch, Charlie Dixon, Sam Day, Rory Thompson and Steven May. Three of them were poached and only one of the two remaining is still a tall forward. What the list above suggests is that the majority of tall forwards are being traded, but further analysis shows that even then their value is as likely to go below their original draft pick. Personally, the younger the recruit, the longer they'll take. Not every club has the patience to wait, so they'd rather buy a ready-made one, especially if they can walk in free agency.
Chris M
Guest
As a fan, I'd say I'd like the list manager of my team to draft a key forward who can kick bags of goals. Being a Sydneysider without a background in Australian Rules and having a physique quite the opposite of a key forward, I am rather disadvantaged in commenting on this at all. I read that bags of goals by key forwards are apparently occurring less frequently than in decades past. Therefore I'd reluctantly say that, in practical terms, a key forward who can help his teammates kick goals is just as important a role as kicking them himself. You've touched upon a number of skills where a key forward may do that, by being versatile and being able to play multiple roles such as assisting in the ruck, by being capable of playing higher up the ground or close to goal, or by helping out the defenders close to the end of a quarter, or even perhaps by playing as a tall wingman. You've also mentioned skills such as being an endurance runner, marking at the highest point, and being capable when the ball is low to the ground. I keep hearing coaches say that being able to bring the ball to ground and preventing your direct opponent from marking is very important as well as second efforts and bringing your teammates into the play. Coaches seem to value being able to exert pressure to keep the ball inside the forward 50 arc when you haven't got the ball, even if pressure acts are more associated with small and medium forwards. Recruiters may look at what the prospective key forward is doing when he doesn't have the ball and also whether his body language is poor when things aren't going his way. I don't have medical expertise to make an assessment, but when expending a high draft pick, I would do due diligence if a young player has a significant injury history . Some players turn out to be more injury prone than others. I also listened to a media interview with a recruiter during the draft and he considered the player's character is important when choosing a draftee. He said that if a player doesn't have hunger for success, all the innate skill in the world won't help him to be a successful AFL player. With respect to kicking goals, it's handy if the player has characteristics such as a strong marking ability, enough speed to create separation between himself and a defender on the lead, an ability to find different ways to kick goals, goalkicking accuracy, even when under pressure, and an ability to keep the defender guessing with different running patterns. There is undoubtedly a much longer list that a born and bred Aussie Rules player even on the lowest tier would be able to elaborate upon. Without understanding the pure finesse of these skills when they are in action, by watching the game I get the overall gist of them. I still think it would be reasonable to have minimum expectations on average goals per game for a high draft pick. The potential draftee won't have all the abovementioned characteristics and it's a matter of a recruiter choosing whether the player has a combination of them that will breed success. It seems from your list of less-than-successful key forwards that a lot of recruiters are getting their first round picks wrong.
2dogz
Roar Rookie
So much positivity from all your posts. I’ve quit my daily yoga/Zumba classes in anticipation of your positive posts! Asumalicka my brother
Glen McDonald
Guest
Got point. Plus JUH dominated as a bottom ager so it's not like he bullied the smaller players. He's also more of a tall utility so less of a traditional kpf.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Yep. Losing ruck contests is what put the pressure on the backline last year. Is suspect they’ll try to alleviate the backline problem by solving the ruck problem
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Can’t disagree with that, but I’d be looking at the Lions with their midfield rotation for inspiration. I got the chance to see them live from pretty good seats against Carlton. They rarely line up the same at Centre bounces, especially on the wings. Sometimes they go big in the guts, with Ellis-Yolmen, or small with Zorko. Those guys will line up on the wings too. They switch up their ruckmen too, which just keeps the opposition spinning the whole game, trying to work out how to answer each defensive match up on the run. I know the Dogs do similar, but with Martin and Treloar to add to the mix they can really change things up as needed to find the right combinations to keep the opposition guessing. If the Dogs can get some better ball in the ruck they are going to be hard to beat.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Any team could have drafted Sam Draper, a September 18yo, in 2016. He was drafted as a rookie by Essendon. Nick Bryan, an October 18yo, was drafted by Essendon in 2019. Drafting a potential ruckman at 18 gives a team a chance to draft a future elite ruckman. Teams should be prepared to develop ruckmen, and teams that do should be given more protection in being able to keep them — the risk of losing these players after putting in the development is one reason why more aren’t being recruited.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
He is, however, he now has Aaron Naughton, Josh Bruce, Josh Schache, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and maybe even Marcus Bontempelli to contend with for tall forward positions. Perhaps a hybrid wing-ruck role is in Timmy’s future.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Tim English slid through the first round to the Dogs in their premiership year, so it was a free hit at a top rated ruckman. Unfortunately for the Dogs, they lost a lot of decent players to retirement and perhaps should have picked a more readymade player. I don’t rate 2016 as a great draft and although there were some very good players who came later than English, they weren’t rated anywhere near as highly. Ruckmen take a lot of time to develop, so many teams don’t pick them in the draft and trade for them instead. Look at all the rucks in the AFL and you’ll see that a lot were developed at the Pies and the Suns. Braydon Preuss came from the Suns Academy, but they had no spots left on their list to take him and he slid to the rookie draft. The Dogs will rue having missed him, as most clubs will given he’s about to become a starting ruckman and has done a proper apprenticeship under elite rucks in Todd Goldstein and Max Gawn. Stef Martin will help Tim English and I think this is the year most clubs return to a ruck duo, so Timmy needs to find a second position to best utilize his skills while he’s not playing at stoppages.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Another point to make here is to question whether key forwards are being drafted for purely goals only or are they being looked at for other traits like ability to run 15km or double up in the ruck? Marking at the highest point and ability to get down to balls around their ankles should be important, but how many tall forwards have a full set of elite skills?
1DER
Guest
Is Tim English capable of holding down the CHF position after a couple of seasons? Excellent pair of hands, contested mark and mobile.
ScottyJ
Roar Rookie
Have enjoyed your draft analisys series Thomas. Thanks.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
That is interesting about Bruce. He was dreadful in 2020 and his confidence was clearly shot after the first few games. I would give him another shot at proving himself in 2021 and hope he can bounce back. If he fails to perform at an acceptable standard though, the Dogs might have to cut their losses with him. The four year deal the Dogs offered for a potentially dud forward is not looking too good at the moment but judgement should be reserved until after this year. I reckon either Bruce or Schache will be given the flick if they cannot break into the team this year. I reckon though making the top 4 is a bridge too far for them until they rectify their issues in defence. The best sides normally have rock solid defences and have every area covered. Some smart tactics can easily undo them in that area. They might not have a choice but to throw Naughton back there to remedy this issue. If they do that and it works, then maybe they will be capable of makng the top 4. It might also be a bit between the ears with them and I thought they believed their own hype a bit at the start of last year . Managing expectations internally might be another area they need to work on to take the next step forward and not allowing players to get carried away. They do have a talented list that has set them up well for the next few seasons but good things can take time. I would be pretty surprised if they didn't make the 8 at the very least
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Yes, very interesting points you raise there. One thing that I think is under-rated is ruck-forward craft. It has gone out of the game in the past decade, but clubs like Richmond and Brisbane are bringing it back in vogue. With the extended quarters in 2021, ruck-forwards who can chop out in the ruck and score goals as well as provide a contest in pack marking situations to bring the ball to the ground, are going to be more valuable than ever. Joe Daniher offers this, while Peter Wright and Sam Day couldn't co-exist because they offered the same skillsets. It is a neat set of events that sees Wright go home to Essendon, Joe escape the Melbourne bubble and pressure of his family name, while the foundation Sun keeps his ruck-forward role. They might be flawed forwards, but that vital 20 to 25% of the game chopping out at stoppages is vital to the team game plan, especially when the back-ups can win more ball than the opposition back-up rucks.
Chris M
Guest
Interestingly, only one of the players on this long list of forwards drafted as high picks since 2010 has so far won a Coleman Medal (Jeremy Cameron in 2019). Some of the more recent picks appear on the way to becoming useful players as midfielders or defenders rather than as key forwards. A lower draft pick in Ben Brown (Pick No 47 in 2013) has been more successful than many of these higher picks so far. I'm sure the list managers will be all ears if anyone can provide a reasonable analysis of which skills or deficiencies in each player have caused them to become either successful or mediocre after showing much promise.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Battered and bruised is the modus operandi of the ruckman. I know, I've been there.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Fair enough. For what it's worth, I think they should play Treloar on a wing - use his pace. Let Jacko and Libba get the ball and feed it to Bont, Treloar and Bazlenka to distribute.