Draft watching has become an offseason pastime for avid AFL followers, with underage football coming under more scrutiny and analysis than ever before.
Perhaps the thing that draws amateurs into a field that was once the preserve of experts, with clubs employing a nationwide network of talent scouts and recruitment gurus, is that there is so much rich information to be found, giving keyboard-happy enthusiasts the confidence to opine on the merits of 17-year-olds they’ve more than likely never laid eyes on.
For the northern states, having academies has meant fans take more than a passing interest in the next local boy coming through because of its inherent advantage at the end-of-year draft, while clubs in traditional states have father-sons and next generation academy prospects to follow into November.
In 2018, a draft year hailed a long way ahead of time to be a ‘super draft’, speculation on underage footy had reached a fever pitch, so much so that when Max King injured his anterior cruciate ligament in April it was major AFL news.
Although, in hindsight, perhaps the foreshadowing detail to the story was not how the top-five draft prospect’s injury might affect his chances of sliding down the order but the fact that Max’s twin brother, Ben King, had sidled up from the backline to kick 11 goals in the very same game!
Being overlooked as the lesser talent was the narrative of Ben King’s junior football days playing for Sandringham Dragons, Haileybury and Vic Metro in defence as his brother took centre stage up forward.
Max King played seven games for Sandringham Dragons in his bottom-age year, kicking ten goals and also making an appearance for Vic Metro and getting his first rep footy major, while in his draft year he kicked eight goals in his solitary Dragons game.
Ben King played in defence in nine games for Sandringham in 2017, appearing in the same game as Max for Vic Country, before assuming forward duties in 2018, kicking 12 goals in six games for Sandy and 12 goals in four games for Vic Metro.
For context, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan booted 24 goals in nine games for the Oakleigh Chargers and never made the Vic Country team, so Ben’s 24 goals in nine games in attack are equal to the 2020 No. 1 draft pick, albeit he was a year older and four of the games were at representative level.
The verdict at draft time was that Max King went at Pick 4 to St Kilda, but that decision needs to scrutinised more closely because the King twins had been talent-spotted a long way out by the Saints, who hosted Max during his ACL rehabilitation and got to learn first hand the character and resilience of the young man.
St Kilda’s season in 2018 was atrocious and their third-last finish put them in prime position to get a King brother, with Sam Walsh, Jack Lukosius and Izak Rankine going in the first three picks as widely anticipated.
The decision of Max over Ben would not have been taken lightly given the serious nature of an ACL and the latter’s versatility to swing forward or back, yet it seems that the knock on Ben was his deferral to his brother that perhaps he wasn’t as hungry or that Max was just that tiny bit better.
As it went, Max had his name called by St Kilda at Pick 4. Ben didn’t have to wait long before the Suns called his name two picks later, the highest a pair of twins had ever gone in the same draft in a year hailed as better than any since 2001.
But did the Saints get it right?
An enduring piece of vision came from the Gold Coast Suns preseason camp in the highlands of New Zealand that shows assistant coach Dean Solomon asking the then 18-year-old to reveal his ATAR score in front of dozens of players and coaches. The young man shyly said “96.35,” and the Suns just exploded like they had just won a game before he’d even kicked a ball in anger for them.
Meanwhile, back at Moorabbin, Max King had achieved an ATAR of 97.80, which put the twins at one and two among 2018 draftees, something that might give an indication of their elite competitiveness.
And yet as months went on it emerged that Ben King was adapting to life on the Gold Coast, making his AFL debut and moving into a house with new best mate, Jack Lukosius, stepping out of the shadow of his ever so slightly more accomplished brother and continuing to make his own claims as a dangerous goal-kicking forward.
Right from draft night, when St Kilda had tauntingly tweeted they would see Ben in two years, the trash talk from Saints fans grew to a fever pitch, yet six months later Ben was on the phone to Max regularly talking about the sunny days and surfing while his brother complained about rehab in wet and cold Melbourne, so Suns fans had the last laugh when he extended his contract to the end of 2022.
Max King. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Given that Ben’s junior statistics were boosted by his brother’s misfortune and St Kilda chose Max anyway, there’s an ever so slight edge to the Saints’ King, yet what has happened in the big league is more telling than anything that occurred before draft night.
Ben King was able to adapt to the pace of senior footy by playing his first few games in Suns colours in defence, yet when thrown forward in his fourth game he clunked eight marks and booted 3.3 against a Lions reserves side that went undefeated in 2019. He went on to kick seven more goals and mark everything in the next two games before debuting in the AFL team.
Max King played five matches for Sandringham in the VFL, also booting 11 goals – bizarrely, Ben kicked 11.6 to Max’s 11.5 in second-tier football – but he injured his ankle midseason and the Saints shelved him for the year.
Although the pace of AFL was too much for Ben at first, the Suns had taken the approach that he wasn’t going to learn much in the reserves, and with their season slipping away, they could afford to get the games into his legs.
That’s not to say he was poor in 2019, because after two underwhelming games on debut he began to get some confidence from being targetted on the lead, taking marks further out from goal and kicking goals. He finished the season in an injury-devastated team with 17.9 in goal kicking, a decent return from 14 games.
Ben King. (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
By contrast, Max King was nursed into a second preseason in cotton wool but was able to begin the 2020 season in the senior team for a Round 1 debut, getting among goals and relishing finally being able to play after two interrupted seasons.
Perhaps unsurprisingly both Kings earnt their rising star nomination against Essendon, obviously in different years, which will give Bombers defenders headaches due to the match-up obviously exposing their frailties.
Max King has a list of slight advantages: he’s a fraction taller, he’s a bit heavier, he’s a minute older, he was always picked first, he was better academically, he was drafted higher and he seems the more confident and aggressive of the two.
On the other hand, Ben King has flourished by playing in teams without his brother and has become one of the dominant full-forwards in the AFL in his own right with a body of work that is simply superior in just about every measure because it’s twice as long.
Ben has played 31 AFL games, kicking 42.29 and getting a Brownlow vote for dominating the Adelaide backline in Round 3. He killed it in his draft year, debuted in his rookie season and has so far gone injury-free throughout.
Max has played finals and played in the winning side when their teams met, although Ben kicked more goals and edged his brother on the day, yet playing in a more successful side is more of an advantage that inflates his numbers rather than being attributable to him alone.
On 2020 statistics alone, which is all Max can be measured by at AFL level, the twins have eerily similar numbers in terms of games played, contested marking, one-percenters and clangers, with Ben ahead in goals kicked, accuracy, score involvements and average time on ground while Max leads in tackles, disposal efficiency and contested possessions.
Oddly enough, Ben covers more ground and earns a far superior AFL ratings average score, yet Max edges out his brother in AFL fantasy points, which may have something to do with him doing chop out ruck work, which Ben does not do, yet these may end up being things both improve at over time.
Where once close observers could see a gap between them, there isn’t a scintilla of difference overall. Max might be stronger in the contest, but Ben is faster and has more endurance. The question remains to be answered as to who is a better player, because both have exhibited elite potential as they blast past all but the very best tall forwards while still only 20 years of age.
One thing that seems unlikely to happen is seeing the twins match up on each other, although if you’re Stuart Dew and watching Max King tear up your defence, maybe only Ben King could stop the carnage?
Or maybe Max decides to join his brother in sunny Queensland…
SF
Guest
I would have thought Sydney's window is beginning to open again rather than "in the twilight of their window closing". They have had two years as a bottom 4 team and are next to no chance of winning this year. But they could well be be flag contenders by 2023.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
Interesting article about the two potential juggernaut forwards. I think both players are pretty much identical in terms of talent and not a whole lot separates them. I thought Ben played with a bit more confidence last year than Max but that would be primarily due to having more continuity in the system and experience. I was still nevertheless very impressed with Max King’s output last year in what was his debut season. I think he will be an excellent forward for the Saints along with Ben King at the Suns.I don’t think you mentioned this in your article but Max King took 30 contested marks last year, which is outstanding for a player in their first real season of senior footy. It must be said thought that he would tend to drop very easy chest marks and would sometimes get overwhelmed by bigger and more experienced key defenders. He has been working on becoming much stronger this off-season to match up better against those sort of player. I believe Ben King has been doing the same from all accounts. In terms of the scoring output of both players last year, I think a lot of that can be attributed to the different structures and tactics employed by GC and St Kilda respectively. It appeared to me that the Saints preferred to spread the load with their goal kickers rather than just rely on a few blokes to kick winning scores each week in 2020. They used to rely so much on Membrey and Bruce to kick winning scores each week and that would fail more often than it worked, which was indictative of their poor percentage and ladder position in the Richardson era. One of the big reasons they were one of the highest scoring teams in 2020 is because they had many options up forward and had a different approach to getting the ball in there it seemed. Battle, Ryder and Marshall would often be deployed in the forward line to support King and Membrey and bring the ball to ground for players like Butler. I cannot really comment on what GC did last year with their tactics up forward because I didn’t watch them much in 2020 but I think both teams had different ways of going about it. I think GC’s forward line was a bit more conventional than St Kilda’s, which is what I thought when they played each other in that great game in R10 last year. I think overall both players will be outstanding and there isn’t much difference between them. I am expecting they will both have very good seasons in 2021. I reckon the Saints definitely got it right with Max at pick 4 and there was no way they were ever going to pick anyone else in 2018 after investing a lot of time and resources into his rehabilation. I have loved what I have seen from him so far and I reckon he was a big reason why we made finals last year. He has already become better than Josh Bruce ever was at the Saints and that is a win in of itself.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
mate please, lol, they haven’t done a thing and may go through their whole career without a premierships next to their name, just ask Bobby Skilton what 3 things he would’ve handed back for just one flag….please your to excited about nothing, it just hasn’t happen yet.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
The Kings have already arrived. Ben King's 25 goals are the equivalent of over 40 goals in a 22 game season, which is well ahead of where any but the very best have gotten in their first or second years.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
.....just hate it when people try to place so much expectation on young players just leave them alone to develop and with luck no injuries, its people like you who do the most damage to young players, build them up and when they fail knock them for not living up to your expectations. They are just kids and won't be any good until they are 23 to 25, they all can't be Wayne Carey's.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
2020 top tall forward goal kickers 1. Tom Hawkins 21 games - 49 goals - 32yo 2. Josh Kennedy 17 games - 34 goals - 33yo 3. Charlie Dixon 18 games - 34 goals - 30yo 4. Jack Riewoldt 21 games - 33 goals - 32yo 5. Tom Lynch 19 games - 32 goals - 28yo 6. Jack Gunston 16 games - 31 goals - 29yo 7. Jack Darling 18 games - 30 goals - 28yo 8. Matthew Taberner - 16 games - 29 goals - 27yo 9. Ben King - 17 games - 25 goals - 20yo 10. Brody Mihocek - 18 games - 25 goals - 27yo 11. Jeremy Cameron - 17 games - 24 goals - 27yo 12. Eric Hipwood - 19 games - 24 goals - 23yo 13. Max King - 18 games - 22 goals - 20yo 14. Harry McKay - 13 games - 21 goals - 23yo There are patterns here that show how significant the Kings are to the tall forward position. First of all, they are 10 or more years younger than the top 4 goal kickers, with 6 of the next 8 aged 27 to 29yo and a pair of 23yos rounding out the top 14. Buddy Franklin and Ben Brown were missing from this list, but their ages fit into the 2 groups at the top of the list. Harry McKay and Eric Hipwood came from the 2015 draft, where Josh Schache went at pick 2, Sam Weideman at 9, McKay at 10, Charlie Curnow at 12, Hipwood at 14, Harry Himmelburg at 16 and Ben McKay at 21 all in the first round, but the drafts before and after have not produced top level tall forwards. 10 of these players are from finals side this season, including Max King, 4 of them have won Coleman Medals, 6 have won Grand Finals, while Ben King and Harry McKay are the only ones never to have played in finals. In 2026, the majority of these guys are going to be gone, but you'd be a brave punter to predict the Kings wouldn't be up amongst it. Who else from the past 9 drafts is even close to this level? There's been a lot of high picks burnt in those earlier drafts on talls, but some of them have to come good. The Kings have a higher potential ceiling than any of them.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
Because they haven't done a thing yet, they haven't finished growing, they haven't made a impact on winning games week after week, if we review them in 5 years time we have a good body of work.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Why wait? They are already in the top echelon of key forwards. There aren’t 10 better tall forwards in the comp. In fact, there haven’t been any this good in the last 8 drafts and you have to go back to Jeremy Cameron and Tom Lynch to find better. The main reason I wrote this article was because commentators had this habit all of last season to attribute how good they were collectively to Max, when it’s been Ben over two seasons making a splash. In 5 years I’ll have several articles and a body of work to compare, but right now Max has caught up to the head start he gave Ben and that’s a pretty good foundation for comparison.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Fair opinion. I don’t know any WC fans who don’t trust their list management, although the position is now vacant and their rookie list clean out was extreme. My question is how could the Eagles get a fair assessment of the kid when he never kicked a ball in anger. The main knock on O’Neill is that he’s an inside mid in a pool full of inside mids who will be playing their trades outside AFL lists this year. West Coast missed on Tim Kelly for years and Marion Pickett even longer. The Gold Coast had Dayne Zorko in their backyard for years before Brisbane took a punt on him and now he’s their captain. Mitch O’Neill is good enough to play AFL, but it looks like he’ll need to prove it in the SANFL after Covid robbed him of any opportunity.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
How many years will Tom Hawkins play with Jeremy Cameron? The length of time caveat is the key here. Jonathan Brown and Alastair Lynch had 3 flags playing together, but played most of their respective careers before and after that golden period. Hawthorn couldn’t keep Roughy and Buddy, yet that proved a benefit to them when they offloaded so much salary from Franklin and invested in poached talent. West Coast is the better answer, even if Jack Darling isn’t regarded as A-Grade. Oscar Allen might continue their tall forward dominance. Even GWS without JC might evolve existing forward combos, while the Suns could look to pair Lukosius with King and the Bulldogs will have Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Aaron Naughton for a long time.
WCE
Roar Rookie
Eagles delisted him for a reason and that reason being he is not good enough to be an Eagle. He won’t have an AFL career in my opinion. Also Eagles don’t make mistakes with who they delist. Not a good one anyway but best of luck to the kid
Cracka
Roar Rookie
Maybe we review how good these kids are in about 5 years...
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Nick Holman is a jobber. He tags when called upon, though it takes him out of the game. He applies forward pressure and tackles at an elite level. When Holman is on and the Suns forwards are in synch, the team is very competitive. Eventually, with David Swallow, Hugh Greenwood, Will Brodie and Brayden Fiorini fighting for two or three spots, Holman is going to lose his place. Imagine Greenwood cut loose in the forward line more often? Swallow makes things happen when he drifts forward and Fiorini is coming back to play a hybrid role. Brodie ultimately replaces Holman if he can demonstrate some forward craft, cover more ground, execute more tackles and feed teammates by hand and foot. Holman could end up playing 150 games, but he might not reach 100. The back injury he suffered and the hits he takes could slow him down, which is a shame because under Stuart Dew he's become an AFL footballer. For now, he is doing a role that is integral to the game plan. When Dew can get three or four guys to cover Holman's role or a better version of the utility roleplayer - could be Elijah Hollands or Sam Flanders - Freckle will go banished to reserve grade.
2dogz
Roar Rookie
Still a Holman fan?
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Carlton has one spot, as you say, with a couple of train-on prospects. I'd be picking Oscar McDonald every day of the week. It is quite astounding that the Demons let him go after being a serviceable custodian. However, don't be fooled by all the rumours and innuendo because the SSP tossed up some interesting signings first two times around. There were several players poached in the 2019 SSP, such as Sam Fletcher, who was training with Box Hill after winning the TAC Cup with Dandenong, but not getting drafted, then the Suns signed him from under their noses. I can tell you that Kaine Baldwin, who was an early fancy in the first round of the 2020 draft before doing an ACL and going undrafted, has shifted to the Gold Coast to join their Academy as a top-ager. They have the option of rookie listing him in the SSP, taking him in the midseason draft (if he falls that far) or gambling that they can get him at season's end in the main draft. He's a 194cm key forward, so I hope they waste no time in upgrading him in the SSP, but if they don't he will still be able to feature in the Suns Reserves comp as an under 19. Whether Carlton sign another big defender or add a clever medium sized midfielder in Zavier Maher or go another direction again with a left fielder like Brodie Lake or Jackson Callow, or any of the young talent that have left for SA after missing out in the skinniest draft ever. If I was a recruiter at ANY club, I'd be throwing an AFL lifeline to Mitch O'Neil. The kid made U18 All Australian twice and was a draft slider in 2019, going to West Coast. He injured himself in the preseason, then went home to Tasmania to visit his family, but got caught out by Covid, having to self-isolate for a total of 6 weeks during the season. When he finally joined the hub with the Eagles, they had sustained so many injuries that they cancelled their remaining scratch matches, meaning O'Neil did not play a game of any description in 2020. Then he got delisted. He's gone to the SANFL to prove himself, but the Blues (or any club) should be making enquiries.
Parklane7835
Roar Rookie
Thomas Roker----AFL QUESTION,few clubs like Carlton,St.kilda,RICHMOND,Collingwood,ESSENDON,Western Bulldogs,HAWTHORN,have one Player They can put on there List 2021... Carlton got Oscar McDonald and Xavier Maher training with the club. St.Kilda....Got Mason Wood Training with them... So who Will Carlton Pick?
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
There's a rule being trialled in the VFL and East Coast Second-Tier Competition this year which I call the 3-12-3. Like the 6-6-6, but for stoppages where each team has to have 3 players in each 50m zone. "1 / Three players to be stationed inside 50 metres at each stoppage A minimum of three Players from each team to be stationed inside 50 metres – including one pair in the Goal Square – at all Kick Ins and Boundary Throw Ins. The officiating Umpire will not recommence play until all players are in position. Where a team fails to comply at a Boundary Throw In, a Free Kick shall be awarded to the Player of the opposing Team at the point of the stoppage. Where the attacking team fails to comply at a Kick In, a 50-metre Penalty shall be awarded to the defending team. The rule to be implemented in the VFL and East Coast Second-Tier Competition will be closely monitored prior to consideration as to whether it is implemented in the 2022 Toyota AFL Premiership Season." I mention this because it will have ramifications for forwards like the Kings who can lead into space faster than any defender. The penalties in particular will promote the ball coming into forward 50, with an offensive free kick going inside 50 on a lead, or a defensive 50m penalty bringing the team up the field quickly, both of which will allow for the Kings to get more involved. Even just having the whole field in front of them by being able to take their direct opponent back to the goalsquare and then on a jaunt up the ground and back, over and over, will tire out even the best defenders. In terms of getting the ball to the Kings, at the moment the Suns are less efficient but Ben is getting more shots on goal overall. Goal assists are a strong suit of the Saints, although several of the better exponents of this underrated stat have left the club or aren't playing first grade, while the Suns forwards have begun to get more synergy and there's a certain redhead who will be looking to improve that aspect of his game.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Stuart Dew is a terrific coach, but there have been 3 pretty bad years with results and the time has come to see what he can do with the artillery he's assembled. Last year, he kept Peter Wright, Corey Ellis, Jesse Joyce, Jordan Murdoch, Will Brodie, Jack Hombsch, Chris Burgess, Jez McLennan, Malcolm Rosas Jnr, Zac Smith and Matt Conroy out of the side because he wanted to play his core group together, then moved on the first three despite them regularly being named as emergencies. If the same thing happens this year, and the remaining players don't get a crack then will they be delisted or traded for peanuts? Dew's selection policies will always be my biggest bugbear. I can see what he's trying to achieve, but by leaving out such a huge group when they clearly deserved selection ahead of some abysmal performances by incumbent players who would have been dropped at any other club. Is it really so hard to shuffle the deck, bring in some fresh legs and refresh the combinations? Jarrod Witts should not have played in Round 1, so why wasn't Zac Smith retained in the ruck after the Suns used him there all preseason? Then later in the season when his form lagged and he was clearly underdone most games, still no rest? Sam Day was given 17 games after missing the preseason with injury, while Peter Wright was kept in purgatory and traded for a packet of chips when there's clearly no other ruck forwards at AFL level on the list. Day had 10 goalless games and 3 times couldn't win a hitout. Against Richmond, Day had 5 touches, no goals and no hitouts. Murdoch, Hombsch and Burgess have all proven that they can handle top level footy, even if they are only regarded as fringe players at this stage. Yet none were called upon. Connor Budarick leapfrogged Jez McLennan into the AFL side, in part due to Jez's injury in 2019, but there were opportunities for him. Connor had two touches in the game against Richmond, which is the definition of a witch's hat.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I wasn't saying Collingwood are top 4, I'm saying that their premiership window is closing very quickly. Geelong have propped theirs open by recruiting win now talent. Richmond are sanguine with their ageing list, as are West Coast. Port have an older group, but they also have a lot of talent at the bottom of their list, which the same can be said for Brisbane. St Kilda have done similar to Geelong in bringing in older players, yet they have also brought in young players so they can make a sustained run at a flag. But it is the Bulldogs who have don't the best job of turning a top 8 list into a top 4 list, which will see the order get shaken up. To go back to the logjam analogy, what happens when all the logs come down river and their path narrows is that sometimes one or two get flipped out of the water altogether. Collingwood and St Kilda did themselves no favours in terms of the fixture by winning their finals last season, therefore they have the toughest fixtures of 2021 and the highest risk of being flipped out of the finals altogether, while the Bulldogs and Eagles have an easier path. A team or two will emerge, as happens every year, but whether it is Fremantle, Carlton, Melbourne or the Suns is subject to how they perform against each other. Adelaide and North are cactus, Sydney and Hawthorn are in the twilight of their windows closing, while the Giants will come into 2021 as the great mystery.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Geelong and Richmond especially have a limited premiership window, Brisbane’s isn’t so limited. Collingwood are near their peak which won’t last long, we agree that they are not in premiership contention.