The weight-for-age Tancred Stakes at Rosehill Gardens shapes as an intriguing race this Saturday.
It looks like an open race with potential value in betting. There are various question marks over those currently favoured in the market order.
The Chosen One (NZ) presents as a good each-way play, as he chases his first Group 1 victory. He currently sits on the fifth line of betting, paying $11 with PlayUp.
The five-year-old son of Tavistock was good first up in New Zealand, finishing second. He then came to Sydney second up and ran okay under the circumstances, coming from last in a race where it was advantageous to be on or close to the speed.
He looks much more suited going up to 2400 metres in the Tancred. The Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman team have proven time and time again how good they are at peaking their horses for the staying races.
His Caulfield Cup run at this trip last preparation was excellent. He finished third behind Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck. He finished within a length of those two on that occasion, which reads really well going into a race like this.
That was under handicap conditions however, so the Tancred presents a different challenge. That said, the proven weight-for-age horses currently in the market have their queries.
Colette is currently the favourite for the race, but she looks a risky betting proposition going up to the 2400 metres.
While she won the ATC Oaks at that distance last year, she may now be better suited to shorter distances at this point in her career, considering her electric performances in the Golden Eagle (1500 metres) and Apollo Stakes (1400 metres).
A good track looks very possible too based on current weather forecasts, which would not be in her favour.
Melody Belle is coming across from New Zealand for it and deserves to be short in the market given her class and record-breaking Group 1 tally. However, she has to be a question mark running at 2400 metres for the first time in her 38-start career. Can she stay?
With this in mind, The Chosen One (NZ) looks to be a good value bet at $11.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
I'm unsure on the better track, but Barts former co-trainer has been putting the miles in her legs
Simon Willis
Roar Rookie
I agree with your comments above regarding the good track. Do you think Colette will run well on a good track? I have some queries there, though I guess she did run really well in the epsom on a good 4 so may be ok.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
collette is set for the Sydeny Cup. She'll be trained to perform better in this race then the last couple
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Angel of Truth is a wet tracker, mostly soft rather then heavy. It will be a good track on Saturday
Simon Willis
Roar Rookie
Sounds good I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts
Simon Willis
Roar Rookie
Definitely agree a weaker field this year.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
I will write a piece on the Tancred later in week, and hopefully Roar will publish it.
Simon Willis
Roar Rookie
Yeah that’s a really good call. Let me know who you end up on!
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
yes, I am undecided as final field not out yet. It could be a very weak Tancred by past standards, although the 3rd horse in the Ranvet (Angel of Truth) looked outstanding in mounting yard and ran great behind two top horses.
Simon Willis
Roar Rookie
I do agree Chris on face value it was only average. If you look at his lead up to the Caulfield Cup it was pretty poor too (caught wide without cover but still offered absolutely nothing in that race) - then bounced back when up to the 2400m. Baker/Foresman just seem to get them right for these staying races. I also think the pattern didn’t suit and while he has to turn things around significantly on some horses such as Toffee Tongue and Spirit Ridge - it looks like we will get a faster tempo here particularly if Gai’s pair nominate/accept, and that will suit him a lot more and I think he will improve significantly on that last start. My thinking is it’s worth looking outside those two favourites in any case even if you prefer something else instead of The Chosen One.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
Gee the Chosen One was disappointing last start.
Simon Willis
Roar Rookie
Great work that’s an excellent find. I’ve had to settle for the $11. Hopefully he gives us a good sight.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Hope so, I took $26 in early markets!