Thanks once more to all who offered a question for this week’s edition of Coach’s COrner. It is always appreciated.
If Dave Rennie wanted to target two overseas players to bring into the Wallabies, who would be the most important?
– Tony Hodges
Rory Arnold would be one, and big Will Skelton the other. They stand out for me. Heineken Cup final… three of the four locks should be Australians!– Mzilikazi
How good was Will Skelton for La Rochelle on the weekend? Do you think Skelton’s playing style would fit into the Wallabies under the current coaches? In my opinion, our two best locks are playing in the Top 14 at present.
– Mused6
Has Dave Rennie got rid of his rule to bring back two overseas players for the Wallabies? If so, do you think that Giteau’s Law will change to some degree to bring back some of our bigger names, especially in the forward pack?
– Take the Points
If there is one position in which Dave Rennie will be thinking of urgent recalls from overseas, it is in the second row. He will already get Matt Philip back from the Pau club in France, but the spot next to him for the July series with France is most definitely open to offers.
It is probably not an exaggeration to state that the top four Australian second-rowers are plying their trade in the Top 14 at the moment. Apart from Matt Philip, it is no accident that the two sides contesting the European Champions Cup final – Toulouse and La Rochelle – will feature three of them: the Arnold twins for Les Rouges et Noires, and massive Will Skelton for Stade Rochelais.
Below is a table showing some comparative stats between the second rows of national interest in Super Rugby AU, and those four playing in France:
| Mins between carries | Gain-line +/- | Decisive outcomes | Lineout wins/steals | Mins between tackles | Tackle completion rate | Passive tackle rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Swain | 23.3 | +2 | 0 | 24/0 | 7.1 | 88% | -10% |
| Cadeyrn Neville | 13.1 | +5 | +2 | 41/1 | 6.9 | 91% | -18% |
| Lukhan Salakaia-Loto | 11.3 | +4 | +3 | 36/0 | 11.9 | 77% | -10% |
| Lopeti Timani | 7.7 | +2 | +1 | 11/2 | 8.6 | 90% | -4% |
| Trevor Hosea | 16 | +3 | +2 | 30/3 | 10.1 | 91% | -14% |
| Seru Uru | 7.6 | +6 | +6 | 17/4 | 9.7 | 90% | -24% |
| Rory Arnold | 10.9 | +8 | +8 | 42/5 | 8 | 88% | -4% |
| Richie Arnold | 11.2 | +1 | +7 | 50/5 | 7.3 | 87% | -14% |
| Matt Philip | 7.9 | +8 | +5 | 27/9 | 10.3 | 89% | -19% |
| Will Skelton | 8.8 | +23 | +4 | 4/0 | 14.4 | 90% | +2% |
Some of the categories will be familiar from the back-row comparison last week. There is more emphasis on contributions at the lineout and on the gain-line in attack and defence.
In the purely numerical categories, the Top 14 players will have played more minutes than their Super Rugby counterparts. The ‘passive tackles’ category measures dominance on the gain-line in defence – the closer to zero, the better. Some important points emerge from the data.
The best overall second-row performer is still Rory Arnold. He has an excellent work rate on both sides of the ball, is in the top three for hard defence, and has developed new skills on attack in the Toulouse culture.
With everyone available, Arnold and Philip look to be the top pairing for Dave Rennie. The combination would provide excellent ball-stealing potential at lineout time, as well as meaningful ball carries.
Rory Arnold. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Within Super Rugby, the best partner for Arnold/Philip could turn out to be Sitaleki Timani, who has the best work rate and most physical defence of all the home-based locks.
The biggest chart-dropper in 2021 is Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, whose work rate and defensive production do not fare well in the comparison.
The obvious bench pick is Will Skelton, with massive ball-carrying stats and the only ‘plus’ number in the short defence category. With a primary lineout jumper in the back row, Skelton could conceivably start. Intriguingly, he also had ten jackal turnovers in Top 14 play – a new development.
Seru Uru and Trevor Hosea are the most promising young prospects – although Uru’s stats also include minutes played in the back row.
Leinster endured rather than enjoyed the Skelton experience against La Rochelle in the semi-final of the European Champions Cup last weekend. His impact in collisions – coupled with a newly discovered eagerness for work – is almost impossible to counteract.
Here are a couple of Big Will’s cleanouts from the game:
In the first example, Skelton simply swamps Leinster number 12 Robbie Henshaw, who is well established over the tackle ball. Henshaw is a very physical midfielder but the outcome is 1.7-second ruck ball for Tawera Kerr-Barlow on the next phase.
In the second instance, Skelton is the second man up in support after the chip through is regathered, and he obliterates Garry Ringrose to open up the right corner of the ruck for Kerr-Barlow.
It was, however, Skelton’s ball carrying which made most of the difference on the day. He makes real progress, even in the toughest scenarios when the defence has only one side of the field to protect:
Those are two of Leinster’s premier tacklers, flankers Rhys Ruddock and Josh van der Flier, that Skelton is carrying with him in the first example; then driving through Ryan Baird and bumping off Tadhg Furlong in the second. Both instances produce sub-two-second ball for the next play.
The longer the game went on, the more effective Skelton became, and this is another positive development:
That was in the 64th minute of the match, with the fate of the game still in the balance.
Like Pone Fa’amausili, Will Skelton is the kind of ball-carrier who persuades coaches to create new attacking patterns from the lineout just to get him involved.
Again, that is Robbie Henshaw, probably the British and Irish Lions’ first choice at inside centre in the forthcoming Test series against South Africa, being brushed away – off little more than a standing start on first phase.
Will Skelton. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Do we really need three referees?
– Stillmissit
Stellenbosch Rugby Club in South Africa trialled a two-ref system in 2014 for a full season via its internal Koshuis League.
– Just Nuisance
With between 200-250 breakdowns in a game and 35-40 minutes of ball-in-play time, it is becoming difficult work for one referee to police everything accurately for the full 80.
If you compare with another collision sport, in the NFL there is a seven-person umpiring crew who live and travel around the country as one team for the duration of the regular season. That means teams can begin to track how they work as a unit and establish a level of expectation about the calls they will make.
If we start by accepting that the job is getting too hard for one whistleblower in the middle, then the logical next step is to get the two sideline assistants on the field and more involved in the decision-making.
For that to work, you need the same crew working together, week in and week out, so the balance of responsibilities can be worked through, and an undue increase in the number of penalties avoided.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Would you be able to analyse the different team’s abilities to force turnovers please?
– Bentnuc
Below is a short table on the turnovers in Super Rugby AU 2021.
| Team | Number of turnovers |
|---|---|
| Reds | 41 |
| Rebels | 40 |
| Force | 37 |
| Brumbies | 36 |
| Waratahs | 20 |
Not particularly interesting, except for the stats posted by the Waratahs. As noted in the comparative table in last week’s column, the NSW back-rowers tend to be saturated by a huge tackle count. Now, one of the main reasons is obvious – the team does not generate any turnover ball when the opponent has possession, so they simply have to keep tackling.
In the NFL, a defensive team’s takeaway capacity is probably its foremost measure of success as a unit. Looking back to the 2020 season, the Queensland Reds had a whopping 67 turnovers, with the twin sevens in their back row, Fraser McReight and Liam Wright, accounting for 31 of them. That is a 50 per cent increase on the entire NSW output via just two players.
Fraser McReight. (Photo by Regi Varghese/Getty Images)
Thoughts on today’s news that John Connolly is up for the role as Waratahs coach? Is there a practical case for ageism in the coaching sphere?
– Kashmir Pete
What I have against John Connolly being next Waratahs coach is he has not coached at a high level for a long time, the game has well moved past his methods/ideas. He would have so much catching up to do and you can’t just do it by theory and watching videos, you need to actually be in the coalface and experience it.– PeterK
Peter’s objections are highly relevant. John Connolly’s name has not been put forward for any of the big provincial jobs in the recent past, so it is a surprise to see it proposed for the Waratahs (especially given his Queensland background).
London Irish coach Les Kiss would probably be a better option, if available. Kiss has been involved in the professional game continuously in the UK, with Ireland, with Ulster and now with Irish in London.
He has been at the cutting edge of developments on the defensive side of the ball and has great knowledge of a raft of Australians who have played, or are still playing, with London Irish now – Adam Coleman, Sekope Kepu, Ollie Hoskins, Dave Porecki, Rob Simmons, Nick Phipps and Curtis Rona. Most of those have played for New South Wales in the past, and might be persuaded to do so again.
Maybe Les Kiss as head coach with Jason Gilmore underneath him as the chief support coach and ‘Knuckles’ overseeing matters as a director of rugby?
Once again, a big thank you to all those who contributed a question, or helped progress one on the callout.
Double Agent
Guest
I'd forgotten just how big he is. Wow! I'll have to watch some 2014 Waratah matches on Stan.
Fox
Roar Guru
Let's be honest Nick, unless played back quickly, the tackled player holds onto the ball as long as he thinks he can get away with it until backup arrives. I mean honestly how many times do we see a defending player over the ball struggling to lift it out of ruck because it is being held back. The whistle should be blown the second you see that but it's like many refs seem to allow a time frame for them to let go which is just stupid - the other day Sam Whitelock was lifting the ball and it was clearly being held but 4 seconds later the cavalry arrived - no penalty - and they played it back to the attacking side and this nonsense occurs every single game you watch. It is so endemic that commentators even get miffed if it is blown too early when the players obviously hanging on to the ball as if they should given a 5 second leeway. That is not the law in the book. If you have not played it back by the time the defender get their hands on the ball you must immediately release ball. Key word "immediately"
Fox
Roar Guru
Indeed Nick :thumbup:
Fox
Roar Guru
"NZ, who currently are begging others to give them money" ah little fact check their Micko old son - The US investment company approached NZ rugby not the other way round.
Fox
Roar Guru
Can you say the same about Wales , Scotland and Ireland ? After all I did mention all 4 six nations sides and Ben Teo and Dylan Hartley and Brad Shields were all playing for England not so long ago so I wouldn't get too comfortable. Anyway knew that would get a bite :silly:
TJ-Go Force!
Roar Rookie
Yet we’re still losing our super players because of the money. Dempsey heading to Glasgow for 2 years. Probably on £250-300k a year. So he’s probably doubled his income at a guess.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Can you name me a single player in any of the five ‘23s’ of England in the last 6 Nations who wasn’t a born and bred Englishman or lived in England since they were a child?
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
In the AU final at 29 minutes Petaia ran the ball from his 22. Valentini tackled him, competed, and won the ball. Despite losing possession of the ball Petaia was penalised for holding on. Yes this is a good point - many player prefer waiting for that pen rather than taking he ball away, and this is an issue which could be remedied by forcing the defender to allow a clear release of the ball by the attacking player before trying to pick it up.
In brief
Guest
After watching both super rugby finals I’m more convinced than ever that the breakdown interpretation need to change and have no doubt they will, in the next few years. The issue I’ve raised was touched on by Justin Marshall when a crusaders player simultaneously latched on to the ball as the chiefs player was placing it. As Marshall pointed out the actions of both players were legal yet the crusaders player received a ‘reward’ penalty. In the AU final at 29 minutes Petaia ran the ball from his 22. Valentini tackled him, competed, and won the ball. Despite losing possession of the ball Petaia was penalised for holding on. This law application is fundamentally flawed and inconsistent. It is a good example of the folly of applying 7s rugby interpretations to 15s rugby.
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes Nick but how much did uncertainty of program and the actual competitions going ahead play in that negotiation? In the South viewing numbers and bums on seats are up. Free to air, and at long last, afternoon games have made a huge difference as we no longer have to cater for the stupid time zones of SA thank god. I am so glad they jumped ship – and then they got hung out to dry by pro14. Classic case of “Be careful what you wish for” How many of their top players have played top level rugby this season and how much before the Lions tour? The biggest loser in all this is South Africa -Rugby is booming and becoming a serious monster in Japan as well. A time zone that suits Australia and NZ. They buy the rights to play Australian and NZ Super rugby with a viewing audience that utterly dwarfs the UK and France combined and be under no illusions about that. in fact has now cemented its place as worlds largest Rugby Union market with a mind boggling 450 million just in Japan alone over 2019 WC. Makes every other market look like pocket money going forward. This article is about that market. https://www.asiarugby.com/2020/03/10/rugby-world-cup-2019-japan-rugbys-biggest-broadcast-market/
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes TJ how long will be in the future when we see a Welsh – Scottish – Irish or England squad, or on run team, where we can say “Hey spot the genuine UK player” Or Hey, anyone spot the born and bred Welshman? When the Big three tour from the South it will be like playing a top English premier side! Spot the Englishman – oh hang on that’s him bring out the oranges now! :laughing: Pro 14 is already fast heading in that direction – No wonder SA franchises wanted to join – just like playing against the same blokes from Super Rugby :laughing:
Fox
Roar Guru
“Is it time to bring overseas players home?” Nice idea but depends how big their mortgages are and how much their wives and families are loving their new homes and schools and cultures of the nations. Most of the All Blacks who have returned from Europe ( not Japan) were past their used by dates and the rest – just can’t see a way into the AB’s anymore so stayed or jumped ship to play for a another nation. The overseas Wallabies may not be in the second category so much as Australia does not have the same depth in players or coaches, but perhaps age may play a part – though not for all. Coming back for some, means for one possible World Cup chance only and then they might ask what are our chances of winning with the global competition out there now? Is the large salary sacrifice worth it? I could be wrong but I don’t think the lure to come home and play for the Wallabies or super rugby is as strong as it once was – family and retirement now comes first for many players. Money talks and BS walks. Many players – not just Australian – will pontificate about how much playing for their country matters but sorry, if you take off overseas knowing full well that may well jeopardise that opportunity then seriously how important is it really? And if you completely jump to play for another nation? I mean com’on spin the other one, it whistles dixy! But yes it would be great for the Super comp overall if they returned and Australian rugby but good luck with that – unless their are other reasons to return IMO or their European clubs no longer want them as much as they once did.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
London Irish coach Les Kiss would probably be a better option, if available. Kiss has been involved in the professional game continuously in the UK, with Ireland, with Ulster and now with Irish in London. I like how Irish have improved (now my local side) but they haven’t been able to make the step where they compete with the better sides despite spending a lot of money on test quality players. Disturbingly, they concede points easily and are often out-muscled. I don’t know whether the cattle simply can’t produce better or whether Les isn’t getting the best out of them. BTW, Kepu went home to NZ for undisclosed family matters and isn’t playing anywhere that I know of
soapit
Roar Guru
You only lift one of em at any one time well that sure sound like a strategy that world best lineouts will be unable to crack. definition of plenty and viable very stretched there. i agree it could do a serviceable job in an emergency but doesnt mean it should be something you should plan for your game day plan A. i get that skeltons carry numbers (that his fan with a history of rose colouring favourites has collated) are tantalising but really needs some heavy consideration before taking that kind of a hit to a crucial and largely unavoidable part of the game.
Micko
Roar Rookie
The point is you don't need 100% local talent. Apparently 40% of the NRL are kiwis. Treat rugby union as a proper professional sport. The Force have like half a dozen Argies, an Irish bloke, a few saffas, probably a fair few kiwis and PI's. Do you complain about it as a Force fan, or do you embrace it and enjoy what these players bring?
TJ-Go Force!
Roar Rookie
I don’t really get any of your points here Micko. It doesn’t answer my question. I asked about local talent to field a 8-10 team comp which you’ve proposed in your previous post adding 4 teams in NSW.
Micko
Roar Rookie
You're worried about bringing players home, where I've always said the silly amateur era mandate to select only domestic players for the national team needs to go. It creates a huge artificially inflated price of players. How many aussies would know who Michael Hooper is? Lucky if it was half! Yet that bloke is one of Australia's richest sports people because of a top down protectionist model that demands local players are overpaid ridiculous amounts (that no natural local market for the sport demands) to stop them going overseas. Let them go if they want to. Would you demand the Socceroos introduce the same policy: overpay local players ridiculous sums to play in the A League rather than head overseas? It would be broke within a month! And I would let them recruit foreigners at a set limit. The dumbest thing they ever did was expanding the SR comp when it was already gegraphically (and timezone!) stretched, and should've been wound up. Then instead of opening up to international recruitment...they decide to set up a franchise in Argentina...WHAT?!!! :shocked: :thumbdown:
TJ-Go Force!
Roar Rookie
I like your ideas mate and agree with your sentiments. The argument i guess is do we have enough rugby talent to sustain a 10-team comp which you’re suggesting? I’m not sure we do. I think we definitely can sustain 1-2 more with significant financial support to bring home some of the 157 pro players we have overseas.
Micko
Roar Rookie
I'm comparing Australian sports culture here, and here with a sport: rugby union, that seems stubbornly determined to follow the kiwis down a dead end of top down protectionism that won't ever succeed in the Australian market (and won't ever succeed for NZ, who currently are begging others to give them money!). Sydney still has only one professional side...and that side bizarrely is the state side: the Waratahs! The model is all wrong. There's all that corporate money you're pining for tied up, and with no real reason for them to spend it! Not to mention the grassroots fans who don't have a reason to spend their money.
TJ-Go Force!
Roar Rookie
Living over here mate and the Pro14 is a complete joke. The best players only really play Heineken cup and miss half the regular Pro14 games. All the regions are propped up by Kiwis and Saffas. And lots of Aussies in Ireland. Irish central contract players rarely play, they have massive squads and rotate heavily. The money all comes from the fact they make huge amounts from 6 nations and autumn internationals which feeds back into the regions.