Why football needs to be a winter sport

By Winter A League is Awesome / Roar Rookie

Let’s break down why football needs to be a winter sport with numbers.

Firstly, let’s start with the average attendance for the A-League, NRL and AFL.

Season A-League NRL AFL
2005-06/2006 11,628 16,484 36,412
2006-07/2007 14,034 16,577 38,108
2007-08/2008 15,348 16,321 38,287
2008-09/2009 12,963 17,098 37,760
2009-10/2010 10,444 17,367 38,423
2010-11/2011 8805 17,243 36,428
2011-12/2012 10,819 17,346 32,748
2012-13/2013 12,658 16,643 33,461
2013-14/2014 13,479 16,798 33,680
2014-15/2015 13,048 16,155 33,367
2015-16/2016 12,706 16,057 33,163
2016-17/2017 12,650 15,704 35,207
2017-18/2018 10,926 16,206 36,687
2018-19/2019 10,877 15,800 36,317
2019-20/2020 8617 3851 7767
2020-21/2021 5665 12,959 27,880
Average 11,541 15,538 33,480

Let’s calculate the bounce back after last year’s poor seasons.

AFL crowds this year are 76 per cent of what they were in 2019. NRL crowds are 82 per cent and A-League crowds are just 52 per cent.

If the A-League had retained 82 per cent of their average attendance like the NRL has, the average crowd would be 8927. That’s 3262 more people than the current A-League season average of 5665.

So that is a drop of 3262 fans in a winter format. Let’s say a GA ticket costs $25, so 3262 less fans at $25 each equals $81,500 loss per home game.

For 12 home games, that is around $1 million less a year. Can the A-League clubs sustain that? That’s not nothing in today’s climate.

As a side note, the drop from 15,348 in the 2007-08 season to 10,887 in 2018-19 did happen in summer.

This can be due to numerous factors such as the form of Melbourne Victory and Western Sydney, for example, as their attendances have gone down.

(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Very few of the world’s top leagues are played in summer. And only a handful play in average temperatures above 20 degrees.

Australia is the hottest summer league in the world. I get that we like to be battlers but let’s not make our league the most difficult in the world from a temperature perspective.

Australia (27.5) leads China (24.5), Korea (24), USA (22), Armenia (21), Japan (20), New Zealand (19), Scotland (16), Norway (15.5), Iceland (13) and Denmark (12).

Football needs to grow through the technical side so it can compete with streaming other international football leagues first of all.

At the moment the A-League is the hottest summer league in the world. Ideally, it than needs to align with the upcoming national second division to bring all the NPL and ex-NSL clubs under the one banner.

At the moment the only other professional outdoor team sport played on a pitch in summer in Australia is cricket. That says it all.

But an extra $1 million loss a year for teams can be very serious. However, it has been proven that the A-League in winter is faster as per the Sydney Morning Herald.

“Before the A-League went into hiatus in March, only two teams had more than 14 passes per minute of possession with four teams below 13. After the restart in July, six teams had more than 14 passes per minute, some close to 15, while no teams were below 13.”

So the entire standard of the league increased from two teams to all teams.

This does seem like a hard choice for the A-League clubs, who have already invested so much. But if there is talk of salary caps coming off, wouldn’t that also recruit bigger names and draw bigger crowds in winter?

Wouldn’t more international coaches come to the A-League so they can implement winter systems of football such as City’s 90-minute press?

I don’t think anyone can press for 90 minutes in summer. Wouldn’t this lead to a higher quality product on the field and bring the fans back?

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2021-06-05T06:04:10+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


As a side note, City on their 4th current socceroo https://www.a-league.com.au/news/melbourne-city-fc-signs-socceroos-attacker-mathew-leckie

AUTHOR

2021-06-05T04:28:27+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


Of course summer is not what killed the NSL but it may have been a factor. If average crowds were around 5k torwards the end than wouldnt a winter switch have made sense? I might do a NSL v A League attendance post at some point. https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/nsl-crowds-crash

AUTHOR

2021-06-05T04:23:31+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


Thanks again for the wonderful post. Its nice to hear insights into the game that arent readily available. :football: :football: :football:

2021-06-04T13:44:28+00:00

Guest

Guest


kept the league going a further sixteen years which is no mean feat...if you fair-dunkum believe switching to summer's what killed the NSL, then there's no helping you

2021-06-04T12:39:01+00:00

jbinnie

Guest


Surfside 66 - A slight correction. I was never involved in the "birth of summer soccer". What I have said is that the original idea of playing the NSL in summer was borne in a trio of minds in Brisbane. This trio went into every aspect of the game and came up with the basic idea of playing our premier league in a time slot comparable with that of the touring teams that visited us in their summer break, fitter and faster than our local players who had yet to start training. The trio went into areas like weather, time of kick off and game finish, travel times between cities. All this happened in the early 1980's and to prove the theory to themselves the trio ,with help from a sponsor, invited Hakoah, St George, and Rasic's Socceroos (Pre 1974 WC) to Brisbane to play a "same day" game ,up and home, just to prove it could be done. They got no help, financial or otherwise, from any of the management bodies. Knowing full well the idea would never get off the ground I informed Andrew Dettre of Soccer World and he ran it as a story. Andrew could see merit in the idea so I suppose he "tried sales" to his many contacts in the game. Now for the punch line. This was in 1983 and some 6 years later the powers that be decided to give it a go and we got Summer Soccer. As I have said before the important factors were that the games should be played in early evening, under floodights. thus creating a ready made market for the NSL clubs to sell themselves to the thousands of senior and junior players, and parents, who already had a vested interest in the game. Did this happen ? I'll leave that up to you but the games continued to be played Saturday and Sunday with a 3-00pm kick off.!!!!!!! Another issue that is never mentioned is that from 1984 to 1989 Frank Arok's Socceroos built up a huge reputation among clubs that came to Australia expecting, fun, games, and easy beats. Arok's record proves a different story. Note how the dates coincide with the NSL switch to summer soccer from where, at that time, Arok was getting 99% of his players. We could spend hours talking about how why and when summer soccer never had the impact that it should have had. Cheers jb.

AUTHOR

2021-06-04T05:47:52+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


I will make up a post soon on comparing all the games. For example AFL 2019 Memberships NSW Sydney 61912 Western Syndey 30109 Average Attendance since 97 Sydney 30219 Western Syndey 10528 Football and NRL seem to be pretty close to Membership v Average Attendance. AFL seems to be 2x Membership for Average attendance which means either not everyone is going to the game or people are buying memberships for families that don’t all go to the game. “The AFL is the 4th best attended football league on the planet.” How did you get to this?

2021-06-03T11:29:51+00:00

AR

Guest


“AFL have 1 million members and only a 30k average attendance than they cant even get their own fans to the game.” For a stats man, that’s a pretty strange comment. The AFL is the 4th best attended football league on the planet.

2021-06-03T11:25:15+00:00

AR

Guest


I don’t get it. No fast technical football in the heat? Someone better tell Brazil, and most of Sth & Central America.

AUTHOR

2021-06-03T02:31:29+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


Yeah that really worked out for NSL :silly: . There a lot of fans that only go to A League. If AFL have 1 million members and only a 30k average attendance than they cant even get their own fans to the game. NRL have 300k members but a 12k average attendance. A League have 100k members but a 10k average attendance.

2021-06-02T21:04:28+00:00

The Rev. Pat Brodnik 2.0

Guest


Whilst I do believe that the number of multi-code fans in this country is considerably exaggerated, it's not enough nor will it ever be for me to throw my lot in w/the 'A-League in winter' crowd. The real issue is that the HAL season begins the week after the AFL&NRL Grand Finals when it should begin in early August - ideally the weekend before the EPL begins. The first few HAL seasons began in August and should have remained thus, if not for FFA's bean-counting by way of scheduling the big derbies for Round 1(another farcical practice that should never have been) the w/end after the 'footy GFs'. Also, by starting the season just prior to the main Euro leagues opens up the possibility of whetting the Eurosnobs' appetite for ⚽ in anticipation for (in their view)'the main event'. But all in all, say once Covid is truly under control, would you *really* want the HAL going commercially head-to-head w/the 'traditional' codes? Switching its season to spring/summer is virtually the best thing the old NSL ever did; do we really *need* to undo that?

2021-06-02T11:41:48+00:00

jbinnie

Guest


Winter- Thanks for the reply. Just in case you don't know, when that big fireball falls below the horizon the temperature usually falls dramatically with with it's disappearance. The thing that worried the originators of the summer soccer idea was actually not temperature ,but that other tropical bane, humidity. That's when they were told in tropical Brisbane the bigger threat was thunderstorms. You mention another thing that was introduced later. The original Idea for an FFA cup came much later than "summer soccer" and did in fact foresee the difference in conditioning as an added benefit to those lower division teams who had made it through the early rounds. At the time that was seen as a benefit suiting the "winter teams". I agree with that viewpoint. cheers jb.

AUTHOR

2021-06-02T08:00:46+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


“If there’s 12 teams, three times 11 is 33 rounds, plus the finals series, plus the FFA Cup, all of a sudden you’re getting up to around 40 games, and we’re getting closer to the players playing overseas instead of not training and having long off seasons,” he said. Graham Arnold from the link above. To have his vision executed, we would need around 16 teams in the A League. NPL Vic kicked off at the start of March and ends at the end of August. They have 14 teams in a comp. So with 16 team it would need to kick off at the start of March and end at the end of September which is what AFL does. Than it can be a truly winter game.

AUTHOR

2021-06-02T07:36:32+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


Thanks but the Asian Champions League only has 2 teams playing 3x games for qualifiers? Dont need to stop the league for that. Also this socceroos qualifiers will be 4 weeks? I would rather loose the 3 city boys in the middle of the season rather than the end. Npl vic is only on round 13 so that is precisely half way in the season.

2021-06-02T06:58:55+00:00

Midfielder

Roar Guru


Winter Love your passion... In time we will have a 40 week season and we need to keep key dates free. i.e world cup, Asian Cup, Champions leagues calendars etc... The June to August period is by and large when many key tournaments take place. If we start on October and finish in mid June thats good, we can play in summer latter in the evening and have no game before six and the early games in the southern states... Starting on October allows for the competition to get going and create an interest...

AUTHOR

2021-06-02T06:34:27+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/54/7/421 It would be interesting to do a model of the $1 million lost in winter v $Cost of injury in summer. The journal article says most injuries have a duration of 4 weeks. Say Salary Cap is $3M pre coivd. $3M divided by starting 11 players is $270k. $270k divided by 24 game is $11k a game. 4 weeks would have around 5 game so that's around $50k an injury. http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:352677/fulltext01.pdf A player sustained on average 2.0 injuries per season and a team with typically 25 players can thus expect about 50 injuries each season. The single most common injury subtype was thigh strain, representing 17% of all injuries. Lets each injury is now extra $50k in value in summer as injuries are doubled in summer as per previous articles. 11 players by 2 injuries is 22. 22 x $50k = $1,100,000 lol so its $100,000 cheaper for the clubs to move to winter. :football: :football: :football: No idea if this maths holds up....but from a player well being perspective wouldn't it make sense for the clubs to keep it in winter.

AUTHOR

2021-06-02T06:12:52+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9631222/ Results: An increasing incidence of injury over the four seasons was observed, with the summer seasons having an incidence almost double that of the first winter season recorded (696.8 per 1000 hours and 363.55 per 1000 hours respectively). The severity of injury was shown to decline over the four seasons. Most injuries were incurred in matches (74.9%) rather than during training (25.1%).

AUTHOR

2021-06-02T06:10:33+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14623663/ Results: The total exposure time during this study was 4876 player-hours (winter, 2386, summer, 2490). The relative risk of injury doubled after the move from winter to summer. Winter rugby accounted for 72 injuries, and summer rugby, for 150 injuries. So Injury Rates doubled in summer compared to winter.

AUTHOR

2021-06-02T06:07:05+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16858213/ Conclusions: Data collected over 6 seasons indicate a higher risk of sustaining an injury playing summer RL, but the cause may be related to a combination of factors. These may include the ground or weather conditions associated with summer rugby, player characteristics or changes in the game itself and future research needs to investigate these further.

AUTHOR

2021-06-02T05:57:43+00:00

Winter A League is Awesome

Roar Rookie


That makes sense

2021-06-02T05:52:57+00:00

At work

Roar Rookie


I think he was taking the approach of moving the schedule to winter of a period of years, otherwise if we'd moved the A League to start in say Feb next year, that's a 7 month off season! I think if we can play from mid October to July next yea, it'll then allow the season after to kick off in late early Dec and play until August the year after. Then by year 3 you could start in late Jan and play to September, if you get my drift.

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