At the halfway point of the AFL season, it is timely and instructive to see which coaches are under the gun and which are sailing on without a care in the world.
To do this I have created an indicator, which measures a coach’s wins and losses in season 2021 as a ratio divided by his overall career win/loss performance up to and including season 2020.
If this ratio is greater than one, it means that a coach is tracking better in season 2021 than his overall career average would suggest and the reverse is for a ratio less than one.
To be cautious, I suggest that a ratio greater than or equal to 1.1 is a coach with a green light, for an overall ratio of 0.9 to 1.1 is an amber light, and less than 0.9 is a red light warning sign.
In effect, this indicator measures whether a coach is currently tracking better or worse than what might be expected given overall career performance.
The indicators are shown in the following from green light to red light
| Coach | Ratio | Traffic light |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Nicks | 2.0 | Green |
| Simon Goodwin | 1.9 | Green |
| Stuart Dew | 1.82 | Green |
| Chris Fagan | 1.52 | Green |
| Luke Beveridge | 1.49 | Green |
| Ken Hinkley | 1.26 | Green |
| Justin Longmuir | 1.10 | Green |
| John Longmire | 1.03 | Amber |
| Chris Scott | 1.03 | Amber |
| Ben Rutten | 1.00 | Amber |
| David Noble | 1.00 | Amber |
| Damien Hardwick | 0.96 | Amber |
| Brett Ratten | 0.87 | Red |
| Adam Simpson | 0.83 | Red |
| Leon Cameron | 0.83 | Red |
| David Teague | 0.78 | Red |
| Nathan Buckley | 0.32 | Red |
| Alastair Clarkson | 0.30 | Red |
I have identified six coaches which are in the red light or dangerous territory. They are Brett Ratten, Adam Simpson, Leon Cameron, David Teague, Nathan Buckley and Alastair Clarkson.
In many ways, these coaches under the hammer reflect the ladder positions of their teams as would be expected.
Alastair Clarkson and Nathan Buckley are at the rear with win/losses in 2021 well short of overall career performance, roughly one third as good.
It should be noted though that Clarkson’s overall strong career record (win/loss ratio of 60 per cent up to and including 2020) means that any dip is magnified.
Surprisingly, Adam Simpson appears in this category, although with a better ratio than a number of other coaches. The West Coast typically seem to fly under the radar but this season they appear to be at the crossroads.
There are five coaches whom I classify as amber to keep an eye out for. They are John Longmire, Chris Scott, Ben Rutten, David Noble and Damien Hardwick.
Clearly Damien Hardwick is not in danger so sometimes statistics do lie. However, these numbers clearly show that Richmond are not having anywhere near the season of yesteryear, while Chris Scott really does need to deliver. John Longmire’s numbers reflect the generally steady-as-you-go performance of Sydney.
There are seven green light coaches: Matthew Nicks, Simon Goodwin, Stuart Dew, Chris Fagan, Luke Beveridge, Ken Hinkley and Justin Longmuir. A number of these clubs are the top end of the ladder so the rating system works in that respect.
However, it should be noted that the performance, for example, of Matthew Nicks – who has a current win/loss ratio in 2021 twice that of his career average – is artificial to an extent because he is a relatively new coach only in his second year, and Adelaide are performing far better than last year.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
A longer time frame would be ideal to make assessments. Similar sentiments apply to Stuart Dew. Most of the green light coaches, however, reflect the current strong positions on the ladder with particularly good performances by Simon Goodwin, Chris Fagan and Luke Beveridge.
Time permitting, it would be useful to disaggregate the data even further. For example, I could look at Nathan Buckley’s record if I left out the 2018 season to test whether that season was an outlier and artificially inflating his coaching performance.
Similarly, it would be interesting to assess and compare Alastair Clarkson’s performance pre and post the golden era.
While the statistics are indicative of coaching performance, clearly many other factors are in play in determining coaching longevity, including supporter sentiment, board decision making, media pressure, injuries and club morale.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Still teach. Currently teaching Skills for Education and Employment to migrants and refugees. I would love to get involved in an NGA program but they don't have them in Queensland. The AFL has squashed funding in Queensland, so it will be a long time before I could hope to combine education with my AFL passions. I think part of the failure of AFL clubs to manage their talent is supporting these young people through continued education. I will tell you I know for a fact that Tom Lynch didn't come even close to finishing his degree in 8 years at the Gold Coast. I was a bit chaotic in my early twenties and took 5 years to get a degree, but this bloke hasn't finished anything in 10 years, which shows a huge gulf in effective mentorship and a disconnect between the player's expectations for his future and the reality.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
And what setting and subject areas did you teach in?
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Thank you for that. I realise it can be murky finding deets on all that.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
I wonder if the panel wasn't actually a series of panels. Such one group for coaching, another group for footy admin, or else candidates were shortlisted via a process where they were interviewed by say 4 of these people and then the final list was decided by the whole group. I agree, you couldn't have all of those people panel interviewing dozens of candidates effectively.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
That's about as much as I can dig up. It's something I've been researching a bit, but there's an elusive search term I'm missing right now to share further insight. I think the program was set up because the old ways of hiring and firing coaches were not working for the game, especially not the welfare of the coaches themselves. But as to the initial group, they assembled such a selection panel because they intended the program to be taken up at some stage by every club, with the initial clubs essentially providing support for an assistant coach for 12 months to build skills that they would probably take to another club, although in Melbourne's case you'd say they made a sound investment.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
And on a different point the size of that panel is large. If that is the panel that made the selection it's too big despite the calibre of the experts.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
That subject is verboten as l broached it once before.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I know who they are, l could go on Hard Quiz with Charlesworth, Craig or Postecoglou as my topic, my question was about the selection panel moreso than their names. I’m not being cute I’m serious in wanting to know
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
"Former AFL coach Peter Schwab, 2006 West Coast premiership coach John Worsfold, Socceroos coach Ange Postecoglou, Australian hockey coach Ric Charlesworth and club chief executives Trevor Nisbett (West Coast), Greg Swann (Brisbane Lions), Peter Jackson (Melbourne) and Brian Cook (Geelong Cats) were on the selection panel." This is the quote. Ric Charlesworth's right hand man was Neil Craig. Then they switched positions, as you well know. Neil Craig is now mentoring Stuart Dew. Would have come in handy a year earlier, but Covid wrecked it. Craig is himself an unusual coach given he didn't play AFL (bloody legend in the SANFL though) and he was a fitness advisor with plenty of sports before taking on the coaching job at Adelaide. Interesting coaching tree which includes Ben Rutten, who you can see has a connection to Whoosha before either was at Essendon.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
So we differ, that's fine. Please flesh out the names and selection panel you speak of. I regard Charlesworth as not only a great coach but a person great national standing.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Why? Both have improved on past performance. They only need to stay on average to remain in the green zone. Only a repeat of the past 3 years second halves of seasons will see Dew dip into the red zone, but with a bunch of stars returning from injury and a timely break he's sitting pretty. As for Longmuir, Freo are the least predictable team in the comp, but they are tracking well enough for Longmuir to remain in the green zone. Perhaps the Suns v dockers clash will determine the direction of their arrows...
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Matthew Nicks was part of the inaugural Level 4 coaching program. Stuart Dew and Simon Goodwin have since also become Head coaches. Peter Schwab, John Worsfold, Ange Postecoglou, Ric Charlesworth and club chief executives Trevor Nisbett, Greg Swann, Peter Jackson and Brian Cook were on the selection panel. I'm also a teacher and I'd argue that teaching approaches and learning styles have changed a lot. Rodney Eade is a great coach. He did amazing things with the Swans and Bulldogs, yet by the time he got to the Suns he was only able to really get the team going with players who were used to his firey approach and inability to emotionally connect. He coached the Suns to some amazing results and brought discipline to a playing group that had been given far too much lenience. But the game had gone past him and the younger players did not flourish under him. I look at this list of coaches and see one thing that I don't has ever happened before in at least AFL history. There is only one recycled coach. Brett Ratten is the only one who has been head coach at senior level before. He should never have been sacked at Carlton and he went and won three flags with Clarko, then kinda scored this gig as caretaker coach of a rabble that underachieved under Alan Richardson and played for their contracts to win him the role. All the others have come through either Level 4 coaching, long careers in footy or they have tenure. Many have done an apprenticeship with Clarko. All of them are teachers.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
If ever there was a coachkilling game it's West Coast vs Carlton. Neither coach is going to get fired due to a loss, but it is an 8 point turnaround on the ladder and the Eagles 3 games out of the Top 4 and the Blues 3 games out of the top 8 (only 2 if the Bombers win Dreamtime at the O). For Teague, he has to believe his team can win 8 of the last 11. The Blues only face 3 top 8 sides, with the Giants twice and 6 sides in the bottom half of the ladder. Losing to the Eagles makes that task very hard. What's a pass mark? By this formula he needs to break even after coming into the season with an 11 and 10 coaching record, so anything less than 11 and 11 this year is creeping towards red light territory. Normally not enough to sack a coach, but Carlton sacked Brett Rutten, their former captain, premiership player and finals coach, for far far less. For Simpson, there are 6 games on their schedule that they must win to make finals against bottom sides. But they are also playing Tigers, Bulldogs, Swans in Sydney, Demons and Lions in Brisbane. This game is the biggest test of Simmo's career at the Eagles. If they lose, he has a long list of justifications, yet he'll need them because they will lose more than they win in the run home and he's facing missing finals with an ageing list. Win and he's a genius.
JamesH
Roar Guru
He's a solid 1.0 from half a season :silly:
JamesH
Roar Guru
It does smooth out the fluctuations, but you probably only want to smooth out single season anomalies (e.g. Ratten's Saints in 2020). Smoothing out longer-term fluctuations can have the effect of masking the trend of recent seasons!
JamesH
Roar Guru
I think Ratten is safe but he must be feeling the heat. St Kilda have just put in a few comically bad performances this year after publicly stating they were aiming for top 4. To me, the Teague stuff is overblown. Carlton have been a bit disappointing, but nothing like the Saints. They have been competitive in almost every game they've played, which says to me they only need some minor tweaks and a bit of internal improvement to be a finals team. If they move on Teague after just 2 years for a more experienced coach then they've learned nothing.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
If you are reading this Ben Rutten, keep up the good work. :thumbup:
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
Off field apparently yatt
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Leigh Mathews taught him well!
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
No Hardwick much more skilled.