With my belief that luck plays a role in any competitive sport, including the AFL where 18 hungry club organisations compete with the same premiership goal, I take up the 2013 statement by the AFL legend and four-time premiership coach (1978, 1981-1982 and 1995) David Parkin.
“I don’t think I was a very good coach. Seriously, all bar the last premiership, they were given to me really, they were great players,” Parkin said.
Of course, Parkin was a very good leader with considerable playing experience, a professional educator ahead of his time, and a talented passionate footy insider who was able to deliver for Hawthorn and Carlton as the head coach.
However, given that many of the coaches who quickly won premierships from 1978 inherited good teams, Parkin’s emphasis upon being fortunate is indeed correct.
As the following table highlights when assessing the 25 premiership coaches since 1978, of the 12 coaches who won a premiership within two seasons of taking charge, six took over teams that had two top-four finishes in the previous three home-and-away seasons.
Of the 21 coaches who coached a flag within four years, 13 took over clubs that had finished in the top four at least once during the previous three seasons prior to the coach’s tenure, while 18 coaches took over a club that had played finals during the previous three years.
The number of finals teams increases from five to six in 1991 and to eight in 1994 as the number of AFL clubs increase.
| Coach | Club | Flag | First year | Position | Position | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Parkin | Haw | 1978 | 1977 | 1974 (3) | 1975 (1) | 1976 (2) |
| Alex Jesaulenko | Carl | 1979 | 1978 | 1975 (2) | 1976 (1) | 1977 (6) |
| David Parkin | Carl | 1981, 1982 | 1981 | 1978 (4) | 1979 (1) | 1980 (2) |
| Allan Jeans | Haw | 1983, 1986, 1989 | 1981 | 1978 (2) | 1979 (7) | 1980 (8) |
| Alan Joyce | Haw | 1988, 1991 | 1988 | 1985 (3) | 1986 (1) | 1987 (2) |
| Robert Walls | Carl | 1987 | 1986 | 1983 (5) | 1984 (3) | 1985 (4) |
| Tony Jewell | Rich | 1980 | 1979 | 1976 (7) | 1977 (4) | 1978 (7) |
| Kevin Sheedy | Ess | 1984, 1985, 1993, 2000 | 1981 | 1978 (10) | 1979 (5) | 1980 (7) |
| Leigh Matthews | Coll | 1990 | 1986 | 1983 (6) | 1984 (4) | 1985 (7) |
| Mick Malthouse | WC | 1992, 1994 | 1990 | 1987 (8) | 1988 (4) | 1989 (11) |
| David Parkin | Carl | 1995 | 1991 | 1988 (3) | 1989 (8) | 1990 (8) |
| Denis Pagan | NM | 1996, 1999 | 1993 | 1990 (6) | 1991 (8) | 1992 (12) |
| Malcolm Blight | Ade | 1997, 1998 | 1997 | 1994 (11) | 1995 (11) | 1996 (12) |
| Leigh Matthews | Bris | 2001-2003 | 1999 | 1996 (3) | 1997 (8) | 1998 (16) |
| Mark Williams | PA | 2004 | 1999 | N/A | 1997 (9) | 1998 (10) |
| Paul Roos | Syd | 2005 | 2002 | 1999 (8) | 2000 (10) | 2001 (7) |
| John Worsfold | WC | 2006 | 2002 | 1999 (5) | 2000 (13) | 2001 (14) |
| Mark Thompson | Geel | 2007, 2009 | 2000 | 1997 (2) | 1998 (12) | 1999 (11) |
| Alastair Clarkson | Haw | 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015 | 2005 | 2003 (9) | 2002 (10) | 2004 (15) |
| Mick Malthouse | Coll | 2010 | 2000 | 1997 (10) | 1998 (14) | 1999 (16) |
| Chris Scott | Geel | 2011 | 2011 | 2008 (1) | 2009 (2) | 2010 (2) |
| John Longmire | Syd | 2012 | 2011 | 2008 (6) | 2009 (12) | 2010 (5) |
| Luke Beveridge | WB | 2016 | 2015 | 2012 (15) | 2013 (15) | 2014 (14) |
| Damien Hardwick | Rich | 2017, 2019, 2020 | 2010 | 2007 (16) | 2008 (9) | 2009 (15) |
| Adam Simpson | WC | 2018 | 2014 | 2011 (4) | 2012 (5) | 2013 (13) |
Of the 25 premiership coaches since 1978, only seven of 25 (28 per cent) won a premiership with a team with no finals experience during the previous three years prior to the coach’s arrival.
While the importance of recent club success for a premiership coach does dissipate somewhat from 1990 in terms of taking over clubs with less top-four finishes during the previous three home-and-away seasons, only Malcolm Blight (Adelaide), Alastair Clarkson (Hawthorn), Mick Malthouse (Collingwood), Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs) and Damien Hardwick (Richmond) have been successful at clubs with no previous finals experience.
Given the reality that it is much harder for new coaches of a club with a recent poor record, it is simply amazing that Luke Beveridge coached the 2016 premiership team in his second year as coach after the Western Bulldogs finished 15th, 15th and 14th from 2012 to 2014.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The same is true with Malcolm Blight who had immediate success with Adelaide in 1997 and 1998 after that club finished 11, 11 and 12 from 1994 to 1996, although Blight had previous coaching experience with North Melbourne (1981) and Geelong (1989-1994) with the latter losing three grand finals (1989, 1992 and 1994).
While Mick Malthouse had already coached premiership teams at West Coast (1992 and 1994) after earlier coaching Footscray (1984 to 1989), his Collingwood premiership (2010) occurred in his 11th season, albeit the latter became a force under his leadership making the grand final in 2002 and 2003.
Damien Hardwick also took eight seasons to win his first premiership with Richmond in 2017 before further success in 2019 and 2020.
Given how long it took Hardwick to succeed, four seasons before making the finals and eight years before winning its first finals match (and premiership) in 2017, it is quite unrealistic to criticise new coaches for not delivering success within a few years when they take over clubs with recent poor records.
(Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Fans should give new coaches reasonable time to succeed rather than expect immediate short-term success as the latter is hardly likely for most clubs.
As an Essendon supporter, I also see good potential in a young Bombers side but recognise that the new coach Ben Rutten takes over a struggling club that finished 11th, eighth and 13th from 2018 to 2020.
Is three years enough? I doubt it.
Calls for Carlton’s coach David Teague to resign or be replaced ignore the reality he has only coached since 2019 after that club finished 14th, 16th and 18th from 2016 to 2018.
While Carlton and Essendon are famous Melbourne clubs with a large supporter base who expect regular success as both have 16 premiership wins, they are just two of 18 competitive clubs who must address salary caps and have some luck with the selection of players from the AFL draft and trade system.
The odds are indeed harder for new coaches in struggling clubs to overcome when compared to those who take the reins of clubs with recent finals experience, albeit there will be the occasional exception as experienced by Luke Beveridge and the Western Bulldogs in 2016.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
Yes, I agree. Roos is a winner: great player, decent person and a great coach.
Clear as mud
Guest
Hardwick got us back up fairly quickly. 6 of the last 12 in his first year. 8 and a half the second. 10 and a half the third (the three late losses in July by less than a goal cost us finals). we were so close to top 4 in 2013 that a serious crack seemed inevitable in 2014. he had his first meltdown and the 9 in a row to make finals covered over a self-made disaster. so we should have been red hot o go in 2015, but he didn't seem to believe that. so we missed top 4 again despite beaten unbeaten Freo in Perth, Sydney in Sydney, the Hawks. which meant 2016 HAD to be the year. we had the talent. just not the coach and the belief. it was the worst year in history. with all the others. which makes the miracle of 2017 a collective achievement. the coach can take some but not most of the credit. 1. so you do have to demand coaches get you into contention after 3-4 years. stop making excuses. nearly half the teams make finals every year. 2. Hardwick seems to have some Fibonnacci bad year periodicity hardwired into him. cut our losses now I reckon, get Clarko in ASAP!
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
Insightful analysis with some intriguing data. In my view the truly impressive coaches are those who take a team in the low reaches of the competition and build a genuine sustained force over 4-5 years. Clarkson is an obvious example as is currently Chris Fagan, even if he’s still to win a flag. Hardwick took longer but the result has been impressive. Adam Simpson has also delivered persistent competitiveness . Beveridge’s success is very noteworthy though his ascent was steep but unsustained. He might though echo Clarkson with earlier success being restaged this year and later. Paul Roos didn’t inherit a disaster at Sydney and didn’t win multiple flags but is remarkable for instilling a culture that has persisted for nearly two decades and has contributed to John Longmire’s reign. He clearly also assisted righting the completely dysfunctional Melbourne. Bomber Thompson must also get some credit at Geelong, initially boosting the most consistent club of the last 15 years. At Geelong and probably all cases of success, competent and mature club management has been an essential component.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
yeah it depends, we are extremely impatient when it comes to the ultimate success. I believe its because of the gradual Americanisation of our sport.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
Maybe five years is a good time to review coaching performance.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
The other thing that I think should be mentioned is the fact that the majority of AFL coaches won their first premiership in the first five years in their coaching career.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
Carlton has some excellent players. Would not surprise me if they do very well in a few years.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
yes, I am thinking of doing a follow up piece seeking to explain Beveridge's success. I think your point about fortune with the right players is correct. Hodge was a great leader.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
If you look at Scott's first year, it was the players. I fact, after 2011, Scott wanted to rebuild and the players said no, we want to keep going and win more. Clarko, had the core of determined men under Hodge. Its what he hasn't got now. Bevo, who knows, flash in the pan. Same for WC. Tigers, I am not sure either. Could have been Coch.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
yes, I thought about that point, but remember it is often the coach that has to fall on his sword. I think a good coach should indeed dominate/influence the playing group in every facet of the game.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
I feel that it is more the leadership groups desire that deliver premierships. Coaches are just facilitators.
DTM
Roar Rookie
Is three years enough? I doubt it. Excellent point. I remember the pressure on Hardwick. Some of the credit for the Tigers success should go to the management team for keeping the faith with him. I'm not a Blues supporter but I think Carlton should stick with Teague for a couple more seasons.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
ok, once again new title overplays what I am saying in article. My title was "Most AFL premiership coaches benefit from inheriting a recent finals team", a lot more more in its claim. Obviously success is not just luck.
The Sports Lover
Roar Rookie
Luck, perspiration and inspiration are three gifts and qualities that improve a persons chance of having a fulfilling life. Winning a competition in any high profile team sport is never easy. However, if you time your coaching career to coincide with having the right cattle, we call that luck. Perspiration ( hard work) and inspiration take over from there.