Last Saturday we all heard the news that Dustin Martin had suffered kidney damage and was out for the rest of the season.
Almost everyone said the Tigers are done.
In my opinion they’re overreacting, here’s why.
After Round 12, Richmond was 7-5, still not great figures for a club that has won three of the last four flags, but still top eight standard. The last five games have been where it’s all gone wrong, winning only one of the last five although that one win was against Brisbane last Friday.
So seeing as it’s Dustin Martin that will apparently pull the plug on Richmond’s season, let’s compare him from Rounds 1-12 to Rounds 13-18 with five simple stats, Disposals, Clearances, Inside 50s, Disposal Efficiency and Score Involvements
Dustin Martin Rounds 1-12
23.5 disposals P/G
3.5 clearances P/G
5.5 Inside 50s P/G
66.4per cent Disposal Efficiency
6.4 Score Involvements P/G
Dustin Martin Rounds 13-18
20.4 Disposals P/G
3.8 Clearances P/G
4.6 Inside 50s P/G
66.5per cent Disposal Efficiency
5 Score Involvements P/G
We can see that Martin hasn’t had the ball as much, and he hasn’t been as involved in the forward line either, although his clearances and disposal efficiency stats have gone up. I certainly don’t think this is the difference between a top eight team and a bottom four team as Richmond have been in their past five matches.
Dustin Martin hasn’t been Richmond’s standout player this season in the first place, he’s currently predicted to win the most Brownlow votes as per the AFL Brownlow Predictor, but I don’t know how accurate that is.
It’s been Jayden Short who’s been winning the ball the most, which isn’t something you want your defender to be doing, but he’s been very efficient with it.
And it’s Shai Bolton that has been the player clearing the ball out of the middle assisting goals to Jack Riewoldt who is currently second in the race for the Coleman Medal.
Although I understand that losing a quality player is going to do damage to any club’s season, and they’ll need someone to fill the role
Dustin Martin is helped off the ground. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Looking at the Tigers’ injury list, they still have Dion Prestia to come back into the side. Yes, he’s a different build to Dusty, but in the five matches he’s played this season, not including Richmond’s Round 3 match against Sydney where Prestia only played about ten minutes, he has 23 touches per game, five clearances, 3.2 inside 50s, has a 73.9 per cent disposal efficiency, and 5.8 score involvements per game.
He should be 1-2 weeks away from recovering from his hamstring injury
They’ll also be getting Bachar Houli back from injury if they’re lucky (He’s expected to be out for 3-5 weeks) which will give Richmond some extra protection in defence.
He is leading the club’s marks tally and also doesn’t give away many free kicks of which Richmond have given away way too many this season, more than any club in fact.
So, the Tigers currently sit just outside the top eight, only on percentage. Looking at their run home, they have Geelong (A), Fremantle (A), North Melbourne (H), GWS (A) and Hawthorn (A)
They’d be expected to defeat Hawthorn and North Melbourne, and probably won’t beat Geelong. But games against GWS and Fremantle could go either way.
Fremantle aren’t in great form after losing by 69 points to Geelong at home and are unlucky to beat Sydney who are coming off a Sydney Derby win.
And GWS are coming off two losses in a row with an ever-growing injury list. That game is extremely unlikely to be in Sydney as well.
Everyone seems to have ruled Richmond out due to Dustin Martin’s injury, but they’re coming off a win and when looking at the stats, injury list and their run home, I don’t think Dusty’s injury will have as big of an impact as people think, and they’ll 100 per cent be in the finals race come Round 23.
Peter Staines
Roar Rookie
Look up the history of sides winning 3 flags from a block of 4-5 years...History says no flags for the Yellow and Black in the next 10 years, maybe 15-20. Dees 57-60...still waiting, Roos '75-'77, 19 years ('96), Hawks '88-'91, 17 years ('08), Lions 2001-2003...still waiting, Cats 2007-2011...still waiting. Get out the dvd pack and be thankful for that. The aflw tigers will win one before the seniors do...
Peter Staines
Roar Rookie
Like a lot of us, my bias is from childhood handed down to me as a kid who couldn't know any better. My dad grew up in Clifton Hill besides the old Vic Park (Collingwood) Footy Ground and my earliest recollection was the 70 grand final and 71 prelim final and I remember listening to it on the radio while we were washing my dad's car in Sorrento, Victoria. Hafey's Heroes and all that, they just grew on me. Yes, I know we suck at GF's. I'm not about to say were are better than any-one else rah, rah, rah. I'm just pointing out history and time allows sides to win either one or a block of 3 in the tigers scenario, hawks, lions, etc and none of those teams ever went on to repeat it. For round 20, you'll be doing well to beat Freo...And if the Cats fall over to the Roos this week, or just win, my suspicions will be confirmed that it's Melbourne's to lose...Dees beat Cats 4 goals earlier in the year, Cats lose to Crows 4 goals, Dees lose to Crows 1 point, Dees beat Roos 30 points...work out the math...Dees are a 3-4 goal better side if those 2 play off... I've had to bet against Pies all year, but best bets for this round would be Pies over WCE by 15, Freo 10 points over Tigers in Total Points Under (Tigers win 40% (2-17-2021) if they don't score 84 or over), Blues lead HT into Saints FT, Swans HTH & Over Total Points, Cats to lead at HT into Roos heart attack at the death 1 point...I'll own it if these don't come off...
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
73 GF - Nev Crowe said pass on my Love :boxing:
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Classics call Sven!
Richmond Tigers of Old
Guest
Rather shallow comment. Yes the system is against them however, this is a once in a lifetime of footy side. Anyone who writes them off like they have since 2017 will be shown for the lack of true understanding of what the Richmond Footy Club stands for. Winning isn’t the only thing, it’s everything. Follow us on social media.
Richmond Tigers of Old
Guest
Exactly well said. Nothin more dangerous than a wounded tiger.
FabPhil
Roar Rookie
The truly humourous and constructive ones aside, some of the comments and back-and-forths here are quite childish and ridiculous. For a second, I thought I'd closed my eyes and woken up at BigFooty.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
If you are guessing at what he means, you can be pretty sure the communication has failed. That's only 2 who have responded and both of us have had to guess.
O M
Roar Rookie
Looks to me like he's referring to Fyfe's poor accuracy in front of goal. Thought it was pretty obvious.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
So you're going to play 4 ruckmen in your best 22?
sven
Roar Rookie
well i am surprised because as of yesterday the tiges website list him as unavailable for the medium term, yet u claim to know better ..... not sure if u refer to me but i have never claimed he is or isnt in our best 22 ...... of course if he is not selected we can all look forward to you admitting you didnt actually know yet again, but knowing your history of spouting garbage but never owning up when this is exposed this would be highly unlikely
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
Apparently not, seems he wasn't the man to separate them in 3 grand finals, and it was the "system" that got the job done. Let's see how this said "system" holds up without its main man in the months to come, should make for some interesting viewing.
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
Let's revisit this in 5 years, we'll see how you feel about it then. Would much rather the team keep giving itself a shot at it than bottoming out, or say, having another 37 years of mediocrity, sound familiar? You're fresh off the success now, but by 2025 you could be Hawthorn 2.0, go ask their fans how they feel about it. Win or lose, I love supporting this club, since 2007 its been glorious, and may it continue for many more years to come.
Good article by you I should of stated that when put comment about few gurus too be be honest I only want one thing from this year that’s Geelong too fail best luck every other club :laughing: banter great but few like give plenty but as soon as little comes back tears happen oh and go tigers this week :thumbup: :thumbup:
Jordan Klingsporn
Roar Guru
Don't actually have anything against Richmond It's just that Freo probably won't make finals if Richmond do
Jordan Klingsporn
Roar Guru
Should've known :laughing: COYS!
Jordan Klingsporn
Roar Guru
Oh :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Jordan The sad part is you have taken time out to write a constructive piece which has been totally hijacked by mentally scarred Cat followers who vomit out their garbage on the forum without adding any value. BTW I think Spanner may be referring to Daddy Dipstick.
Only if hub in Geelong will cats be happy :laughing:
sven
Roar Rookie
might get on you tube, watch tiges v blues '73, see laurie fowler hammer big nick & balme work over the blues backline line ... different game back then .....