As if it were a story by Jorge Luis Borges, South Africa once again embodies multiple performances and a single role, where the particularities result from the changing world, but the story is usually the same – and it repeats itself.
Consolidating again as a power and as New Zealand’s main hemispheric rival, South Africa returns to the scene with a solid and effective defensive system.
We can say that the Springboks (the defence less beaten) and New Zealand (a fast and effective attack) will dispute the leadership of the Rugby Championship in which Australia and Argentina will be simple supporting actors?
South Africa’s defensive strength is based on a system that generates maximum pressure on the defensive line by adjusting the work upward, from De Allende and Am, towards the winger positions. The implementation of this defensive model has been very effective and thus far only the Lions, driven by Finn Russell’s unpredictability, have seriously questioned the system.
So far, South Africa’s defensive performance in Rugby Championship has been supported by the inconsistency of Argentina’s semi-attacks. The South Africans have fought an average of 0.86 tackles to neutralise an Argentina carrie and this is the best ratio in Rugby Championship so far.
The Springboks’ physicality has gained the most metres from the point of first contact between attacker and defender. The ratios expose the 4.5 carries needed to defeat a defender, and is only beaten by the All Blacks based on a lighter but more versatile forward pack for the duel.
The gain in additional post contact metres is approximately two metres in South Africa and is due to the weight of the pack (934 kg Avg) and the particular dexterity for contact used by the forwards. This structures the South African semi-attack into something powerful, incisive and without too much lateral play, which weakens its continuity towards the creative 10-12 axis.
But South Africa’s kicking game has proven effective and deadly in attack. Argentina suffered a bombardment in Rd.1, systematically executed from the 22 metres of South Africa bound for the ten-metre line inside the Argentine field, where 43per cent of the kicks (Box and Up and under) were not contained by Argentina’s defensive ‘pendulum’ (10, 15 and 11).
The Boks pack is today one of the most experienced in the world and led Argentina to three scrum penalties while maintaining 100 per cent effectiveness.
We can say the same about the lineout, where despite having lost four they maintained their 86 per cent effectiveness with Lood De Jager and Franco Mostert in command.
How could the All Blacks dismantle the South African machine and how could it neutralise the defence model? I think the best way would be to shore up their strengths in attack and defence.
In attack, excellence in speed decision-making could be enhanced if they manage to combine control and ball delivery in the ruck (-3 seconds) to overcome the Springboks’ defensive circulation and generate spaces at the ends of the field.
New Zealand routinely employs 7.5 average carries to get within 22 metres of the opponent and that speaks to the fluidity of their phase play, although in Bledisloe they have shown lateralisation and little penetration.
In defence, New Zealand are more undisciplined than South Africa (27 accumulated penalties versus AUS) but just as effective. We will have to wait for the physical reaction of the New Zealand defensive pack throughout the 80 minutes.
In a world where defences outweigh attacks, the least defeated defence and the most effective attack will once again make their case at Rugby Championship.
Blessing
Roar Rookie
Anybody can get cocky before a game has been played. Rugby has a way of humbling people. We will see what happens.
Wayne
Roar Rookie
Blessing, they almost did not show up remember. Maybe its those numbers that gave them that strange idea to bail out at the last minute, but we will never know... I am finding this current Bok coaching team fascinating. They are far from what we are used to as Saffas, vastly superior knowledge of the game and really intelligent in the how & what they are implementing in the side.
Wallabies_Larkham
Roar Rookie
Biltong..yes the bokke seem to have a hard time in OZ..it was so disappointing to see Uelese being sent home to make way for the original nr 2 pick for the squad from the force team..Uelese seems to be the type of player you need against the bokke for scrums and physicality..
Blessing
Roar Rookie
Blimey! Should the ABs bother showing up? Sounds like we are making up the numbers here. Heaven help us all.
biltong
Guest
WL, that question is akin to asking a dad who his favourite son is. :stoked: Historically the All Blacks has been our greatest rival, but historically since the pro era, the Wallabies has a similar win ratio vs the All Blacks that we have. So looking at the All Blacks, do we hang on to the historical value forever? They are and have been a cut above the rest for so long now that when you look at our record vs them, we really were their rival only under Pieter de Villiers with a 5/6 ratio. I can't remembr the stats but I think under Nick Mallet we might have been closer than the norm. If you check the stats between SA and Aus the stats are unbelievably close in points scored, wins etc. Anyone that tells me we will simply walk over Australia in the next two matches are ignoring what happened in the last two decades. Rivalry I see as someone that you can beat as often as they can beat you, in that sense the rivalry between SA and OZ is real. No matter whether SA or OZ find themselves ranked 2 or 7 or vice versa, there is and never has been a sure thing. Realistically speaking we can call ourselves NZ's rival when we gain parity in results for an extended period of time.
Wallabies_Larkham
Roar Rookie
Biltong..the bokke lost a number of games against wallabies in a row during the deans era..so he new how to counter them... do you think based on the close results between wallabies and bokke make them the greatest rivals rather than ab and bokke
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Carlos, the video analysis we do for clubs in ARG counts a "carrie" as a carry with a displacement of 2 meters or more from the point where you take the ball. With a "rush defense" or a "pass on contact" attack, carries are likely to be lower than tackles. OPTA statistics (stats perform) originate data from artificial intelligence, so they depend on the algorithm configured to "read" and analyze each sequence of the game. I send you my regards...!
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
I saw last night the site. There is also data from the RWCs that shows that in the 2019 they had more tackles than carries. First time. (https://www.statsperform.com/resource/revolutionising-rugby-a-statistical-analysis-on-how-the-game-has-evolved/) The issue is HOW does stats call a carry. You can see more passes than carries, which means that they must use some specific definition of what constitutes a carry. My guess is that if you receive the ball and pass it, they may not call that a "carry". But, you can only tackle players carrying the ball. Maybe Nick Bishop can explain how you can have more passes and tackles than carries. It makes no sense whatsoever.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Carlos, this is the link we are talking about: https://super.rugby/therugbychampionship There you can explore the Match Center and collect the data. If you prefer, let me know and I will send you the spreadsheets. This is my email: rugbyanalysisok@gmail.com. Greetings…!
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
AUS could succeed if it adjusts its playing performance, logically. But at times, from what I saw at SuperRugbyAU, TransTasman and every AUS game this year, I think the Australian player doesn't have in his DNA what it takes to beat RSA and NZL. Some call it the X factor. We are probably going back to the depth of Australian rugby today.
Brad
Roar Rookie
I have too many memories of wily Wallabies winning when they shouldn't to be comfortable
biltong
Guest
I hope you are right Francisco, but history tells us we struggle against Australia in Australia. Even during periods when they aren't in the top three they have a knack of beating us. I just don't think it is as straight forward as most predict.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Biltong ...! RSA has already won both games easily against ARG and with substantial changes in the game plan. I think RSA can do the same against AUS and come out on top. But against NZL it could get complicated. I think of 5 wins and 1 loss against NZL.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Hello kabous ...! It's good to note that your JLB readings bring us closer to a broader understanding of the Boks game. This usually does not happen. The truth is that here we are postulating the return of a historically powerful nation under a different clothing. "The other, the same" from JLB ...? Greetings...!
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Hello Wayne ...! It is fascinating to analyze the performance of RSA. As you well point out, we have had the opportunity to see their evolution from # RWC2019 to Rugby Championship 2021, where they can change their strategy and go from an attack game based on kick to a more balanced one with expansive play. Power is the basis of its consolidation: power and precision. Regarding their clash with NZL, it will be very timely to know the positioning of each side and see how they prepare for the match. Surely RSA will tweak its attacking game even more, but we can't say the same for NZL, where things are in full review. Thanks for the The Dead Ball Area reference - I'm your follower on twitter and I really enjoy your approaches. Greetings...!
Kabous
Roar Rookie
What an extraordinary opening sentence! Yes it is, isnt it. Jorge Luis Borges most famous works include Universal History of Infamy (1935), Ficciones (1944), The Aleph (1949), and The Book of Sand (1975). All of them deal with fictional places and toy with the idea of infinity and mythical creatures that immerse the reader in magical worlds. Comparing the Boks to such mythical creatures is quite a way of putting it. You know what is coming but the outcome stays the same? Creature reverts to type even across generations ? Same result different setting? Interesting comparison and great intro. Also an unusual angle of looking at the game, hope to see more.
Wallabies_Larkham
Roar Rookie
Francisco was your title inspired by the intro lyrics from eminem song...will the real slim shady please stand up...
biltong
Guest
Tooly, I think you are overly pessimistic. I for one do not under estimate what the Wallabies can do. As for the Springboks, whilst it would be unbelieveable if the Springboks win all their matches, I highly doubt that will happen, in fact my expectation is to win two of their four matches, which I believe is a realistic expectation, my hope is three wins, that would make me very happy.
Wayne
Roar Rookie
Francisco, this man beat you to it- https://twitter.com/thedeadballarea/status/1432579687411236865
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Please, send me the link.