Wow. You couldn’t have scripted a better grand final.
Epic storylines. Incredible plays (Cody Walker — simply sublime). The elite discipline in defence and attack of both sides to stay in it. Souths determination.
All in all, I don’t think we’ve seen as good a grand final in years. Even with V’landysball, it seems the saying “defence wins premierships” is alive and well.
Much has been made about the Panthers’ effort and I’ll take nothing away from them. But I can’t help but think of Latrell Mitchell, and how he must be rueing his absence from the field.
I don’t think it’s that controversial to say Penrith’s defence, combined with their kicking game, won them crucial field position which kept Cody Walker and the left edge quiet. Walker and others certainly showed in the eight points they put on that, given the opportunity, they were very capable of putting the points on.
The big story is the difference Mitchell’s loss made.
Everything in the data suggests that Mitchell would have created better field position had he played for the Rabbitohs. The key numbers to look at are PCMs and tackle breaks per game; often good indicators for a fullback or winger running out of trouble and winning field position.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
For reference Brian To’o is the leading PCMer statistically, followed by Daniel Tupou.
Comparing Mitchell and Blake Taaffe we can see the story told through the numbers beautifully.
Mitchell per game generates 39.65 PCMs and 5.47 tackle breaks. This does two things: it means that often the defensive line is a number short (creating more space) due to the tackle break, and the set generates an additional 5m – 10m.
Taaffe in contrast holds 0.89 tackle breaks and 12.33 PCMs. That’s a ~25m+ difference within a game early in the set, maybe more if you count how Mitchell puts people on the back foot. In a tight match for field position, it’s ridiculous how much impact that may have had.
That’s not a criticism of Taaffe, who played admirably for eight games in the NRL.
Turning to the pointy end of sets Mitchell may also have made a difference to the end field position and the points scored. Mitchell averages 0.76 tries per game, 0.82 try assists, 1.02 line breaks and 1.35 line break assists.
Taaffe on the other hand averages 0.11 tries, 0.22 try assists, 0.83 line breaks and 0.22 line break assists. Again, a big difference at the end of a set.
You could argue that Mitchell missing out of Taaffe cost the Bunnies around ~6-12 points in attack as a result. That’s not the fault of Taaffe (who did incredibly well for eight games). It just almost certainly influenced the game against the Bunnies.
The final ‘Mitchell’ statistic is harder to quantify – but is the issue of Adam Reynolds’ groin. Reynolds was carrying a niggle but continued to kick. But you can’t help but imagine if Mitchell was there with his 80 per cent goal-kicking ability, he might just have been able to kick that sideline conversion or the field goal.
It’s hard to know and quantify that, however, as we didn’t see enough Reynolds goal kicking to get a gauge on if he was off that night properly.
All in all it was an epic grand final. Well done Panthers. You deserved the win. If this isn’t a lesson to players about being careful with their discipline so they don’t cost their team a probable premiership, though, I don’t know what is.
Namehere
Guest
I'm a Panthers fan and would have felt much more comfortable with him out there. He would have been completely gassed after 30-35 minutes like he was in the two losses he featured in.
trackstix
Guest
It's a mute point from Roy Masters. Sliding Doors? If Latrell played, everything in the game would of been different, and Cody would never of been in the exact position he was in, because of the notion of siding doors. Does that make sense?
Rossi
Roar Rookie
You want to sack a bloke who was a dodgy call and trainer interference off winning a premiership 2 years ago?!
Rossi
Roar Rookie
Agree, the scary thing is they were playing busted and not near their best in attack
Rossi
Roar Rookie
I honestly believe they wouldn't have made GF with him; would have put down a few of Cleary's bombs and gotten caught out of position Dufty style, then lost to Storm in preliminary. And say they did make it the same way, I don't think he would have made much difference as Cleary's kicking had them coming off their own line all night. Taaffe is safer andich better positionally, while Latrell is probably the most dangerous player in the comp in the opposition red zone, which doesn't matter if they're not in red zone.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
In SoO when Latrell Mitchell kicked a left foot try conversion from the left sideline that was straight, all the way, over the black dot I said “he can do everything”. It’s a pity but he was reckless and didn’t get a chance to test the great Penrith defense.
Realist
Guest
Mitchell struggled with the Cleary bombs much more than the new back it would have been ugly had he played!
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
Coaches and players alike lose sleep worrying about how they are going to contain Latrell, Turbo, Teddy, Cody and Cleary. They each possess an x-factor that teams struggle to contain. Take either of those key players out of their respective teams and the loss is too much for that team to cover and a massive boost for their opposition. We all saw how the Panthers were a far different team, far more vulnerable, when Nathan Cleary was out for an extended period. Unfortunately for the Rabbitohs for two successive years Souths have been in white hot form and look to have timed their run to perfection only to lose Latrell just before the finals. Is there any doubt that had a massive effect on the Rabbitohs chances? Take Cleary out of the 2021 GF and put Latrell back into the Rabbitohs side and does anyone doubt which team would have won that game? That takes nothing away from the incredible performance of rookie Blake Taaffe who was thrown into the deep end after only 1 NRL game and ended up putting in a strong performance in his first GF after only 7 games in the NRL. To win a premiership so many things have to go your way. Luck and having your best side on the field for the decider are key factors. Sadly for Souths that all went the Panthers way. But to come within just 2 points with only 47% possession after losing Jai Arrow early is a remarkable achievement. Even more so when Souths created 2 tries to the Panthers 1 with the difference being an intercept try against the run of play. Two stats that have not been emphasised enough is that with only 47% of the ball the Bunnies had the Panthers defence in trouble. The Panthers had 59 missed tackles to Souths 23. Just imagine if Souths had the lions share of possession. The other stat, where Souths lost it, is in their errors or turnovers. Souths made 11 errors to the Panthers 7 but also threw 3 intercept passes to double the Panthers turnovers 14 - 7. That is NOT the recipe for success or the way to win a GF and was the main difference between the two sides in the end along with Cleary's kicking game.
Simoc
Guest
That's as smart as saying if Latrell played Perith would have won by 50 as they had done previously. Simple as...
Muzz
Guest
More importantly. Will he do it again?
Steve
Guest
Not sure why that's relevant. He's been around the game for decades and it was an angle that hadn't really occurred to me until he said it. Gee's there certainly seems to be a lot of over sensitive Panthers fan on this site....its just a hypothetical. Maybe tell us why Roy is wrong??
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Mitchell also ended Brimsons season with a broken jaw. That should have been the moment he woke up, but he didn't.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Just remind me again, how many premierships did Roy Masters win in his 250 matches coaching Wests & St George ?
Gee up
Guest
can you really compare 9 comments to 3500? asking for a friend.
Rob
Guest
If Mitchell’s contact had not have clipped the falling Manu on the cheek he wouldn’t have been suspended. The contact was unfortunate and deserved punishment because it ended an opponent’s season. Kikau ended Arrow’s season with an equally reckless shot IMO. Kikau also end much of CNK season with similar contact?
Steve
Guest
Ok...you obviously aren't listening. I've already said I support neither side. As a neutral my opinion trumps yours. The entire article is a a "what if" scenario specifically concerning Latrell's suspension....for some reason you seem to be offended by other peoples opinions on the issue.
Rob
Guest
Of course he does for all the reasons stated, as well as Mitchell’s ability to go to another level in a winner takes all game. Mitchell’s aggressive, fearless, emotional nature is ideally suited for a GF with the whistle staying in the officials pocket.
Phil
Roar Rookie
We can only guess and pass opinion as to the heading of this article. I've read some interesting comments, but it's all hypothetical. As for my two bobs worth, I think Penrith would still have won. Latrell is gun shy under the bomb preferring to leave them for a team mate to handle as Penrith found out in their two encounters during the comp. Coach Cleary would have told halfback Cleary to pepper Mitchell with bombs especially when he's near another team member. Eventually frustration would get Mitchell hot headed and then comes the brain fart and possibly cost his team the GF. When he's on song, Latrell is an awesome player, one of the best going around but is too temperamental and until he learns to control his temper he can be a liability. As for the title question, we will never know.
Lara
Guest
Has anyone ask Mitchell? If he said no, case closed. If he said yes or maybe, then hopefully he can contribute to the team in a positive way next season….the only person who missed out is him .
Cam
Roar Rookie
Mitchell would be in the top 2 or 3 players at Souths, arguably their best player. To take such an influential spine player out of any team, definitely leaves them below their best (picture the Panthers without Nathan Cleary). Would Souths win with Latrell in the side? Dunno. But just say hypothetically that the GF ended in a draw and a rematch was to be played this coming weekend. If Latrell was available for selection, I’d be pretty tempted to have a few dollars on the Rabbits. Having said that, Latrell could just as easily have another brain explosion in the GF and leave Souths short.